Thursday, June 16, 2016

Gold just scored a ticket to ride higher from Fed’s Yellen

$1,300 may be ‘new floor’ for gold next week: analyst

Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Are gold futures the golden ticket? (CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY, Philip Wiegratz, Franziska Troegner, 2005, ? Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection)

The Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged Wednesday and cut their expectations for rate hikes in the next two years, brightening the outlook for gold and prompting prices to tap a high of $1,300 an ounce in electronic trading.
Futures prices GCQ6, +1.81%  hadn’t traded above the key $1,300 level on an intraday basis since early May, and haven’t settled above that level since late January 2015, according to FactSet data. After settling at $1,288.30 an ounce on Wednesday to log a six-straight session climb, the August contract continued to march higher to sit comfortably above the $1,300 on Thursday. In early trade, gold was up 1.9% at $1,312.20 an ounce.

Time (EDT)Gold - Electronic Aug 20168:0016 Jun4:008:0012:004:00
The Federal Open Market Committee’s “move to lower their long-term rate forecasts more in line with the market’s expectations highlights a clear road higher for gold,” said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. “With so much of the world now operating in a negative-rate environment, and now the path to higher rates in the U.S. being moderated, the outlook for gold is very bright.”
The Fed on Wednesday held interest rates steady and expects to raise rates twice in 2016. But the central bank trimmed expectations for rate hikes and now sees only three rate hikes in 2017 and 2018, down from a projection of four in both years.
Read: Fed holds rates steady as more officials move into one-hike camp
“Everything about this decision is dovish,” said Chris Gaffney, president of EverBank World Market.

Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report, said the $1,300 level may become a “new floor” for gold next week.
The “FOMC just gave gold a brilliant, green light” with no possibility of a rate increase before September, he said. Prices may even top $1,900 in early 2017 if the dollar falls dramatically over the next six months.
At a news conference after its policy statement, Fed boss Janet Yellen said “vulnerabilities in the global economy remain,” and acknowledged that the pending U.K. vote, known as Brexit, which will help to determine whether Britons remain a member of the European Union, was a factor in its monetary-policy plans
“Brexit is a real concern capable of disrupting foreign exchanges in the short term,” said Julian Phillips, founder of and contributor to—and that makes the dollar’s exchange rate “vulnerable.”
Read: Watch gold jump to $1,400 if U.K. votes to Brexit
Gold futures had suffered a monthly drop of 6% in May, pressured by expectations for higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar DXY, -0.20% Higher interest rates lift the appeal of holding dollars. That also means that a stronger buck undercuts the worth of holding gold that doesn’t offer a yield and is traded in dollars.
But a weaker dollar and unrest sparked by the potential disruption of a British exit from the EU, ultimately offers a bullish path for gold to rise.

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