Monday, July 29, 2013

Chicago Next? Windy City Cash Balance Plummets To Only $33 Million As Debt Triples

While everyone's attention is focused on the Detroit bankruptcy, and just what assets the city will sell in lieu of raising a DIP loan, perhaps it is time to refocus attention to the city 300 miles west: Chicago. According to the Chicago Sun Times citing year-end audits, Obama's former right hand man, Rahm Emanuel, closed the books on 2012 with $33.4 million in unallocated cash on hand — down from $167 million the year before — while adding to the mountain of debt piled on Chicago taxpayers. In addition to a liquidity problem, Chicago may also be quite insolvent as the city's total long-term debt soared to nearly $29 billion. That’s $10,780 for every one of the city’s nearly 2.69 million residents. More than a decade ago, the debt load was $9.6 billion or $3,338 per resident. Of course, in a world in which debt is "wealth", this is great news... at least until debt becomes "bankruptcy."
Ironically last year, now-retiring City Comptroller Amer Ahmad argued that the city’s debt load was not “troubling” because, "We still have a very strong bond rating. Our fiscal position is getting better every year and we are aggressively managing our liabilities and obligations" (very much awhat the ECB's Mario Draghi tells the world when he gives the periodic monthly update of European capital markets during the central bank's press conference). It is ironic because last week, Moody’s downgraded Chicago from Aa3 to A3 in an unprecedented three notch cut in the city’s bond rating, citing Chicago’s "very large and growing" pension liabilities, "significant" debt service payments, “unrelenting public safety demands” and historic reluctance to raise local taxes that has continued under Emanuel.
Moody’s noted that the city’s total fund balance at the close of 2012 was $231.3 million and that Chicago has just $625 million in “leased asset reserves.” Had the city fully funded its $1.5 billion “actuarially required contribution” to its four under-funded city employee pension funds in 2012 alone, “these two reserves would have been entirely depleted,” Moody’s said.
The “unassigned” balance is $33.4 million. Experts recommend a cash cushion of at least $200 million for a budget the size of Chicago’s, according to the Civic Federation. The city ended 2009 with an unallocated checkbook balance of just $2.7 million.
According to the Sun Times, Chicago budget Director Alex Holt blamed the $133.6 million drop in cash on hand balances on "honest" budgeting and ending the long-standing practice of carrying “ghost” vacancies. "We’re trying to be more transparent about what we’re really spending and taking in — not just carrying a bunch of people who took up money in the budget and left money on the table at the end of the year," Holt said. Well that's a welcome development - unfortunately the inevitable outcome of honest in the New Normal is bankruptcy.
"Let’s be straightforward about what we’ve got to spend and not pretend we’re gonna hire for a position we haven’t hired for, who know how many years when those resources are need to provide other services. ... This is about matching revenues with expenses. You don’t want to over-tax people."
Wait, did someone from Chicago just say that?
As also disclosed by the Sun Times, audits by the accounting firm of Deloitte & Touche provide a treasure trove of information about city finances and operations.
Interesting nuggets include:
  • Chicago’s principal private employers were: J.P. Morgan Chase (8,168 workers); United Airlines (7,521); Accenture LLP (5,590; Northern Trust (5,448); Jewel Foods (4,572) and Ford Motor Co. (4,187). The 2012 city payroll was 33,708 — down from 40,297 in 2006.
  • The number of “physical arrests” by Chicago Police officers declined again — from 152,740 in 2011 to 145,390 in 2012. That continues a six-year trend that coincides with the hiring slowdown that caused a dramatic decline in the number of police officers. Police made 227,576 arrests in 2006. The number of arrests has been dropping like a rock ever since. The Chicago Police Department has long argued that it doesn’t measure the success of crime-fighting strategies simply by the number of arrests.
  • Emergency responses continued their steady rise — to 472,752. That’s up from 300,971 in 2006.
  • O’Hare Airport operating revenues were up by $23.2 million, a 3.3 percent increase, thanks to rising terminal rental and use charges. Operating expenses rose $19.1 million because of rising personnel and contracting costs. Airline ticket taxes known as “passenger facility charges” generated $154.5 million in 2012.
  • The number of passenger “enplanements” rose by a modest 37,000 — to 33.24 million. That’s despite a continued decline by O’Hare’s two largest carriers — from 8.7 million passenger boardings in 2011 to 7.4 million in 2012 at United Airlines and from 7.6 million to 7.2 million by American.
  • In 2003, United and American together accounted for 67.7 percent of O’Hare enplanements. Now, it’s just 44 percent.
  • Budget-oriented Midway Airport is thriving, spelling potentially good news if, as expected, Emanuel chooses to revive the $2.5 billion deal to privatize Midway that collapsed for lack of financing.
  • Midway boardings rose from 9.45 million in 2011 to 9.78 million last year. Operating revenues were up just $462,000 because of decreased landing fees and terminal use charges. That’s even though concession revenues rose by $1.8 million due to an increase in parking, restaurant and auto rentals. Operating expenses rose by $4.2. Ticket taxes generated $43.9 million.
  • The 55 percent subsidy to retiree health care that Emanuel wants to phase out and retirees are suing to maintain cost the city $97.5 million in 2012.
  • Daily refuse collections declined from 3,983 tons in 2011 year ago to 3,763 in 2012. Last year’s 52-ton increase had reversed a five-year trend. The amount of garbage generated by the 600,000 Chicago households was 4,451 tons a day in 2006 to 4,240 in 2008.
  • Thanks to last year’s record heat and drought conditions, average daily water consumption rose by 23 million gallons — to 793 million gallons — reversing a steady decline. In 2006, Chicago’s 1.04 million households were guzzling 884.9 million gallons-a-day. Operating revenues in the city’s water fund were up by $122.1 million or 29.6 percent, thanks to Emanuel’s 25 percent increase in water rates.
  • Chicago’s 165 tax-increment-financing districts had a collective balance of $1.5 billion. Most of that money is uncommitted, fueling an aldermanic demand Emanuel has rejected: to declare a TIF surplus and use the money to reduce some of the 3,000 layoffs at Chicago Public Schools.
  • The condition of Chicago’s four city employee pension funds is growing ever more precarious. The firefighters pension fund has assets to cover just 25 percent of liabilities, followed by: Police (31 percent); Municipal Employees (38 percent) and Laborers (56 percent).
  • Chicago’s historical collections and works of art are valued at $13.2 million.
There's all that, and then there is the now traditional weekend slaughter of countless people as irrefutable proof that guns laws work, although maybe not in the city they were implemented.
By July 31, Emanuel must release a preliminary city budget. It’s almost certain to include another massive deficit — strengthening the city’s case in contract talks with city unions — that will have to be closed with more layoffs, service cuts and new revenues.
Since Emanuel’s 2013 budget held the line on taxes, fines and fees — beyond those set in motion the year before and annual increases in parking meter rates locked into the 75-year lease - what appears inevitable is another rise in the cost of Chicago living. The mayor also eliminated 275, mostly-vacant jobs while making strategic investments in tree-trimming, rodent control and children’s health and after-school programs.
But, aldermen warned that it was the calm before the storm: a painful solution to the city’s pension crisis that will require both new revenues and concessions from city employees.
Of course, now that Detroit has shown the way, and since he who defaults first, defaults best (and the second best and so on), there is a far more realistic outcome...

Now the Bankers Will Steal 47.5% from Cyprus Savers

Activist Post

Failed European banks are now demanding the seizure of 47.5 percent of funds in private savings accounts in Cyprus.

This new form of bank bailout referred to as a "bail-in" or recapitalization, no matter how they label it, is nothing more than a theft of private savers.

According to Reuters:

Cyprus and its international lenders have agreed to convert 47.5 percent of deposits exceeding 100,000 euros in Bank of Cyprus to equity to recapitalize it, banking sources said on Sunday. 
Under a programme agreed between Cyprus and lenders in March, large depositors in Bank of Cyprus were earmarked to pay for the recapitalisation of the bank. Authorities initially converted 37.5 percent of deposits exceeding 100,000 euros into equity, and held an additional 22.5 percent as a buffer in the event of further needs.
"There was an agreement concluding at a final figure of 47.5 percent this morning," a source close to consultations told Reuters.

What began as an across-the-board pickpocket of private bank accounts in Cyprus is now targeting only those with over 100,000 euros, as if to pacify the anger among the less privileged.

This brazen action by international bankers is a dangerous precedent for other European nations facing the same bank-engineered debt crisis.

7 Charts That Prove That The Stock Market Has Become Completely Divorced From Reality

The mainstream media would have us believe that the U.S. economy must be in great shape since the stock market has been setting new all-time record highs this month.  But is that really true?  Yes, surging stock prices have enabled sales of beach homes in the Hamptons to hit a brand new record high.  However, the reality is that stock prices have not risen dramatically in recent years because corporations are doing so much better than before.  In fact, the growth in stock prices has been far, far greater than the growth of corporate revenues.  The only reason that stock prices have been climbing so much is because the Federal Reserve has been flooding the financial system with hundreds of billions of dollars that it has created out of thin air.  The Fed has created an artificial stock market bubble that is completely and totally divorced from economic reality.
Meanwhile, everything is not so fine for the rest of the U.S. economy.  Economic growth projections have been steadily declining over the past two years, and the growth rate of personal income in the United States has been on a huge downward trend since 2008.  The U.S. economy actually lost 240,000 full-time jobs last month, and the middle class continues to shrink.
So welcome to the “new normal” where most Americans struggle at least part of the time.  According to one recent survey, “four out of 5 U.S. adults struggle with joblessness, near poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives”.  Things are tough out there, and they are steadily getting tougher.
Yes, the boys and girls up on Wall Street are doing great (for the moment), but most of the rest of the country is really struggling.  We have never even come close to recovering from the last major economic crisis, and now another one is rapidly approaching.
The other day, Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh sent me an email and told me that he had some charts that he wanted to share with me and asked if I wanted to see them.  I said sure, send them over right away.  These charts show very clearly that the stock market has become completely divorced from reality.
In a normal market, stock prices would only rise dramatically if the overall economy was healthy and growing.  Unfortunately, our economy is far from healthy and has been declining for a very long time.  If the financial markets were not being pumped up by so much money printing and so much debt, there is no way that stock prices would be this high.
If we truly did have a free market financial system, stock prices should be a reflection of the overall economy.  Instead, we have a very sick economy and financial markets that have been very highly manipulated.
For example, just check out the first chart that I have posted below.  If the economy was actually getting better, the percentage of working age Americans with a job should be increasing.  Sadly, that is not happening…
CFPGH-DJIA-04
This next chart shows how the average duration of unemployment has absolutely skyrocketed in recent years.  Yes, the duration of unemployment has improved slightly in recent months, but we are still very far from where we used to be.  Meanwhile, the stock market has been soaring to new all-time record highs…
CFPGH-DJIA-11
Traditionally, there has been a high degree of correlation between stock prices and real disposable personal income.  From the chart below, you can see that this relationship held up quite well through the end of the last recession, and then it started breaking down.  This is especially true at the very end of the chart.  Real Disposable income has started to decline sharply but stock prices just continue to soar…
CFPGH-DJIA-19
When an economy is healthy, money tends to circulate through that economy at a healthy pace.  That is why the chart below is so alarming.  The velocity of money is the lowest that it has been in modern times, and this indicates that economic activity should be slowing down.  But the Federal Reserve has enabled the bankers to thrive by pumping massive amounts of money into the financial system…
CFPGH-DJIA-05
When an economy goes into recession, freight shipments tend to go down.  In the chart below, you can see that this happened during the past two recessions.  Unfortunately, we have never even come close to returning to the level that we were at before the last recession, and yet the stock market has been able to soar to unprecedented heights…
CFPGH-DJIA-17
When an economy is growing and people are able to get good jobs, they tend to go out and buy new homes.  Yes, we have seen a bit of an increase in the number of new homes sold recently, but we are still a vast distance away from the level we were at before the last recession.  And now mortgage rates are starting to rise steadily, and this is likely going to cause the number of new homes sold to start going back down.  The chart below clearly shows us that the real estate market is far from healthy at this point…
CFPGH-DJIA-09
For most middle class Americans, their homes are their primary financial assets.  So the fact that home prices have declined so much is absolutely devastating for many families.  But stocks are primarily held by the top 5 percent of all Americans, and as the chart below shows, they have benefited greatly from the antics of the Federal Reserve in recent years…
CFPGH-DJIA-08
There is no way in the world that the stock market should be this high.  The economic fundamentals simply do not justify it.  As a society, we consume far more than we produce, our debt is growing at an exponential pace, our economic infrastructure is being absolutely gutted and our financial system is a giant Ponzi scheme that could collapse at any time.
And no market can stay divorced from reality forever.  At some point this bubble is going to burst, and when financial bubbles burst they tend to do so very rapidly.
As Marc Faber recently said, “one day, this financial bubble will have to adjust on the downside.”
When it does “adjust”, we are likely going to see a financial panic even worse than we witnessed back in 2008.  Credit will freeze up, economic activity will grind to a standstill and millions of Americans will lose their jobs.
Don’t assume that the bubble of false prosperity that we are enjoying right now will last forever.
It won’t.
Use the time that you have right now to prepare for what is ahead.
A great storm is rapidly approaching, and I don’t see any way that it is going to be averted.
Republished from: The Economic Collapse

‘Deteriorating US economy won’t change’

The œdeteriorating economic situation” in the US is not going to change unless the American people œget in there and enforce the changes,” says Phil Wilayto, editor of the Virginia Defender newspaper.
New survey data exclusive to the Associated Press have shown that 4 in 5 American adults experience unemployment, near-poverty, or reliance on welfare during periods of their lives.
The AP data also revealed that while racial and ethnic minorities are still more likely to live in poverty, the number of poor whites has grown significantly since the 1970s.
œReally, the majority of Americans, regardless of race, now face economic insecurity at some point in their lives and the rate of poverty is steadily increasing,” said Wilayto in a phone interview with Press TV on Sunday.
The survey data also showed that if the current trend of growing income inequality continues in the US, by 2030, nearly 85 percent of American adults will experience economic insecurity for parts of their lives.
Wilayto said the part of the report that stuck him œthe hardest was that as the rate of economic insecurity rises among the white population, their feelings of insecurity are going to increase and this can result either in joint forces with blacks and Latinos to change conditions for working people altogether or can result in an increased racial tension”.
Wilayto referred to the recent acquittal of George Zimmerman in the death of unarmed black teenager Trayvon Martin and the protests triggered by the not-guilty verdict as an example of œincreased racial tension”.
ISH/ISH
Republished from: Press TV

Signals for Breakdown on Numerous Fault Lines


Gold Seek – by Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com
Many are the signals of breakdown, in the financial system and the Gold market. The day is near for release of gold from under the thumb of the criminal bankers. They can no longer operate in the shadows, recently in full view. The best information coming to my desk indicates that three major Western banks are under constant threat of failure overnight, every night, forcing extraordinary measures to avoid failure. They are Deutshe Bank in Germany, Barclays in London, and Citibank in New York.  
Judging from the ongoing defense from prosecution and cooperation (flipped) with Interpol and distraction of resources, the most likely bank to die next is Deutsche Bank. They are caught with accounting fraud and outright financial fraud over collateral shell games, pertaining to USTreasury Bonds, other sovereign bonds in Southern Europe, and OTC derivatives linked to FOREX currency contracts. D-Bank is a dead man walking.
The contagion that will hit is assured, since these three big banks are all interconnected, their positions intertwined, their fates tied like a common millstone around their necks. When they go down, and they will go down hard, the gaggle of Western financial firms (banks, investment banks, hedge funds, exchanges) will sink together into a sea of red ink, toxic swill, and more than a few orange jumpsuits. The legal route might be more likely a vanishing act, as hidden banker prisons have begun to be populated, very quietly, under extreme secrecy. Remember that since the great London gold drain last spring 2012, a new sheriff has been in town and hard at work. And he is taking bankers, mid-level bankers, the ones who know too much information, but who do not have the privileged high rank.
Every passing day brings the world closer to ruin, a necessary step for release of the cable lines from corrupted derivatives and basic hemp from futures contacts. The Wall Street traders (with their cocaine habits) and the Wall Street executive bankers (with their satanist rituals) are on the way out. On the other side is the release of gold from shackles over 20 years. A funny line was quipped, that people confuse the price of gold with the gold price. Meaning, people confuse what is offered as the COMEX gold price as being real. In any true market, the Price is set as the equilibrium point where Supply arrives to meet Demand, where Demand from customers clears Supply. Neither is present in today’s gold market. Shortage is enormous. Even scrap supplies are near zero. Demand overwhelms available inventory. No equilibrium is remotely apparent. The Jackass thoroughly enjoys that COMEX gold ambushes executed by New York and London criminal class bankers, done with full impunity, done with full blessing, if not direct pleading by government finance ministries. The ambushes are done with execution aid by the central banks, reinforced by the wags in the financial press. The bankers indeed slit their own throats on stage in mid-April with the gold price ambush. In June, they castrated themselves with dull blades in full view on stage in the latest ambush. They have accelerated the Gold Supply drainage. They have magnified the Gold Demand worldwide. They have hastened the imminent COMEX & LBMA shutdown most assuredly.
The signals are mounting for systemic breakdown. They will not be elaborated upon here in any great detail, only listed, since so numerous. The details are provided in the Hat Trick Letter reports, lengthy and integrated, many of the dots connected as they say. Lately, the entire stories arriving on the newswires, the financial tickers, and the television sets seem like an amalgam from
  • Al Capone gangsters residing in Wall Street and USGovt officers
  • James Bond and the hidden syndicate, orchestrating car crashes and murders
  • Andromeda Strain, in a global war on engineered viruses disguised as vaccines
  • The Day the Sun Stood Still, with fabricated hurricanes and targeted earthquakes
  • Invasion of the Body Snatchers, complete with Sandy Hook venue
  • Black Holes in formative stage on earth, from USTBonds and sovereign bonds
  • Alfred Hitchcock on suspense, as the bank failures and bail-ins cometh
  • Nightmare on Elm Street with Freddy Kruger, as martial law approaches
  • Manchurian Candidates in high office, in a succession of White House occupants.
But the collapse and nightmare and endless storm is our reality, somewhat an end product of the forced feeds in propaganda format. The signals are many and growing, even spreading to wider platforms and stages. The tragedy is that many people will lose life savings, duped to the end, demonstrating limited mental acuity. The required step is that certain markets go dark. My full expectation is that before the gold price is released to find the rightful $7000/oz price that comes, the entire gold market will turn into a fractured hidden chain of arenas, loosely connected and sparsely supplied. It will feature different prices and different availability. According to my sources, the process has already begun,.
THE DIVERSE SIGNALS OF BREAKDOWN
Negative GOFO gold forward rates: at They are the rates at which contributors are prepared to lend gold on a swap against USDollars. They provide a basis for some finance and loan agreements as well as for the settlement of gold Interest Rate Swaps. The most likely explanation is a run on allocated gold accounts within certain bullion banks, and a possible bankruptcy of a bullion bank. Next will come the Backwardized gold price stucture. Actually, Turk claims the London Bullion Market Assn website reports a gold backwardation right here, right now, as in today. The full-blown backwardation is predicted by Karen Hudes (formerly of World Bank) and by James Turk (founder of Gold Money).
Vanishing JPMorgan gold vault inventory: Since the April ambush event, the client partners of JPMorgue have been jumping ship. On a single day in early June, the JPMorgue upchucked a whopping 60% of its gold inventory. The date was June 11th. The news went unreported by the intrepid harlot clownish press. Between March and June, JPMorgue client accounts saw fit to remove a total of 13 metric tons (13,000 kg) of gold. They clearly have lost trust in the big bank, which is the object of criminal investigations and fraud and thefts on a monthly basis.
Raids on GLD gold inventory: The reductions to the GLD gold bar inventory match closely the Delivery volume on COMEX. The data is clear and more than a coincidence. The variation is often under a few percent in volume. The GLD exchange traded fund has earned a new label, the bullion central bank, assured for easy access by Wall Street banks. They short the GLD shares, then drag out the bars off the ramp overnight. The stupid clueless morons who invest in the GLD fund have to be the dumbest mammals on earth, behind whales and wallabies.
Arbitrage of Shanghai gold contract versus New York gold price: Actually a very intriguing statistic has popped up. Over the last 18 months, the correlation between the GLD gold outflows and the Shanghai gold price premium has reached about 80%. Such figures are not seen outside the scientific laboratories. Corruption does that. The finger is pointed at the Wall Street banks, which appear to be raiding the GLD gold inventory in obvious outright manner. The suspicion is therefore that New York banks are selling gold to China from GLD inventories. They would sell their mothers’ livers.

Volume of USMint and Canadian Mint silver coin sales: The volume exceeds the silver mine output for the two nations by an estimated 25 million ounces for the current year. Therefore, all industrial North American silver demand is in deficit. The demand has seen a quantum jump up since the April market ambush, with no let-up. The USGovt had announced some rationing plans, but they are obligated by law to honor all customer orders. They must be importing the silver.
Growth in Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong: The growth is impressive. Just when the growth more than doubled in the past couple years, doubt rose of its continued path. Yet the growth rate is at 100% annual rate for year 2013. A picture truly is worth 1000 words, and tells the story. The months January through April in 2013 saw a total of 498.0 tons moved through Hong Kong, a 108% increase. The East continues to buy any and all supplies put before them. The greatest transfer of wealth in world history is underway. The West sells fraudulent bonds, while the East purchases Gold.

Huge growth in Indian gold demand: The known Indian gold imports are fast rising, coupled by tremendous cross-border smuggling, despite the central bank obstacles. Almost half the Indian trade deficit is linked to gold imports, in huge volumes. For the two months April and May, the cost of gold import purchases exceeded $15 billion. The single month of May trade saw a deficit for India of INR 1108, equal to US$19 billion. The 2Q2013 gold imports (over 250 tons) will be at least double from last year, despite new rules placed as obstacles. It is said that Indians will continue to buy gold for savings and weddings in spite of legal obstacles, just like Americans would continue to watch football games even if banned.
Advancement of the Eurasian Trade Zone: The organization and construction of the trade zone is led by Russia and China. It is being fortified by vast energy pipeline buildout. The flow of funds from the energy pipelines to China is being paid in the form of USTBonds to Russia. From there, the funds flow to London banks as part of the Rosneft buyout of the British Petroleum stake in Russian energy firms. Think return of USTBonds to sender, stuffing them down their throats. When Central Europe joins the trade zone, it is game over. Already, a network of heavy rail facilities runs from Russia to Germany. Few have noticed. The United States will be increasingly isolated.
Chinese Yuan Swap Facility proliferation: The developments started slowly back in 2007, with Brazil signing on. But in the last couple years, add Japan, Australia, Russia, and many more nations. The facility is being installed in England, with applications from France. The whopper lately is the Euro Central Bank requesting a $130 billion Yuan Swap line for facilitation of trade among the major banks. One must wonder if European leaders will soon turn their backs on the United States for bank leadership, foregoing the USDollar Swap for the Yuan Swap. The Jackass viewpoint is that the Swap Line is a precursor to a fully convertible Yuan currency and the open capital account. Then comes wide trade in Chinese Govt Bonds, which will replace USTreasury Bonds. Then comes the Gold-backed Yuan currency, which might be the temporary denomination of the Gold Trade Note, used in bilateral trade settlement in gold. Presto, a path to the new Gold Trade Standard!
The G-20 Meetings are defiant against the USDollar: They are led by the two superpowers Russia and China. The nuts & bolts of Gold Trade Settlement were to be worked on in Turkey during the June G-20 Meeting, but it was hi-jacked and interfered with by a gate crasher delegation from the panicky G-7 finance ministers. The September G-20 in Moscow will not permit any interference or uninvited guests. Barging in on Ankara is much easier than on Moscow. The agenda for three months among G-20 nations has been to put on fast track the development of the trade settlement alternative outside the USDollar sphere. It requires many important platforms for implementation. The day is near, and only awaits the collapse of the Western banking and currency system that rests atop the toxic bond foundation.
Turkey emerges as primary gold intermediary bank: The entire Iran sanction story has resulted in vast workarounds. One of the most important is the rise of Turkey as a gold bank intermediary. Two parties want to settle on trade, for crude oil or metal ore or foodstuffs or cars or home electronics. They wish to settle on a net basis outside the typical USDollar framework. Turkey provides the necessary gold bullion to settle the trade transactions. They are working toward facilitation of Gold Trade Settlement.
BRICS Development Fund described in disguise: It poses as fund for infrastructure, but really will become the processing plant for converting USTreasury Bonds into Gold bullion for the emerging nations, in possession of outsized reserves in toxic FOREX paper. The common story told is to fund a railroad in Tanzania, indeed a true story but totally misdirected emphasis. Their Emergency Fund is already funded by $200 billion. Next the Development Fund will be filled, like a giant war chest. It might have a few $billion spent on connecting railroads or highways in designated African locations. But its real purpose, according to my source close to its design, is to process toxic USTBonds and direct the purchase of Gold bullion. The fund in time will serve as the Gold Trade Central Bank, and will issue Gold Trade Notes in replacement of the Letters of Credit based in crumbling fiat paper currencies.
Allocated Gold Account frauds: The Jackass must boast as being the first analyst back in 2011 to openly mention the revealed frauds of thousands of tons of improperly used, leased, and confiscated gold accounts under contracted storage. Thanks to The Voice, my source of the tip. The center of the fraud is Switzerland. The initial hint of pervasive fraud came with the Venezuelan demand for return of gold held in London. The previous demand by Mexico was completely suffocated and dissolved in a mass of convoluted paper. When Germany joined the demand for repatriation of allocated gold on account, the firestorm reached a critical temperature. The New York Fed rebuffed German Parliament officials at the door, when they wished to inspect their gold on account. A required Mali War ensued to replace the missing gold bullion and to raid the West African nation, where Islamic terrorists have been conveniently sighted by PsyOps staff members. The Swiss bullion banks receive fresh exposures on a monthly basis for Allocated Gold Account improprieties, often from Egon von Greyez, the brave gold war veteran, the defender of true wealth, the caped crusader of gold. The wealthy of Europe have begun an insurrection against bullion bankers, seeking redemption of their gold held on account. The gold is largely gone. Heads will roll.
Death of King Abdullah and sunset of Petro-Dollar: Someday will be revealed the death of Abdullah, which many expert analysts (not the State Dept clowns or Wall Street harlots) expect will result in the fall of the House of Saud. Accompanying his death will be the demise of the Petro-Dollar, which has served as the critical foundation for the USDollar for 40 years. Actually, a new energy cartel is forming. It is the current powerful new force emerging as the Natural Gas Coop, with key players Gazprom of Russia, Qatar and Iran in the Persian Gulf (strange bedfellows), Turkmenistan, and Israel.
Growing Eastern energy pipelines: Called Pipeline-STAN by some analysts like Pepe Escobar, an excellent analyst whose work appears on Asia Times, featured on the Hat Trick Letter. A key pipeline through Syria is called the Shiite Pipeline by the Jackass. The big new pipeline with conflict and controversy is the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. The USGovt is trying to play the same losing game, by banning banks that cooperate with its funded construction. But China has entered the fray, guaranteeing its full funding. Pakistan is no longer friendly to the United States, not after thousands of civilian deaths by USMilitary drones. Russia is the chief architect of energy pipelines, for natural gas, for crude oil. They will supply Europe and Britain, and thus turn the alliances of Europe eastward toward Russia. The United States will be increasingly isolated.
Movement by Israel away from the US fold: The tiny nation is fast entering into a Russian alliance, starting with the Tamor floating as platform, extending into hidden deals with Putin of Russia. The Tamor natural gas output is under contract to Gazprom, a giant surplus assuring significant capital inflow to their economy. Also, a notable number of Israeli immigrants are of Russian descent, estimated between 25% and 40%, maybe higher. The nation might sound like a US partner in the Syria battles, but not so, not really.
Fast rising long-term USTreasury Bond yields: Rising loan rates will certain torpedo the US housing market. The market is being upheld (held up) by the Wall Street banks and their devoted private equity funds, which together are gobbling up large packages of REO bank property tranches, otherwise known as foreclosed homes. For several months, if not a couple years, the US housing market prices have excluded the off-market bank sales to unload inventory out the bank back doors. The home price data is more corrupted than the price inflation data or the Wall Street bank profit statements or the official gold accounting by the USGovt. As much as the housing market is vulnerable to rising rates, the bank derivatives such as the infamous Interest Rate Swap contracts lie in the danger zone. They react very badly, with $trillion losses, whenever the long-term rates move just a moderate amount. Between August 2012 and April 2013, the 10-year USTreasury yield had been fluctuating from 1.6% to 2.0% in firmly controlled fashion. However, since May all hell has broken loose. This week, the reported TNX yield has zipped to 2.7% and come back to 2.55% in highly dangerous fashion. Expect major losses in IRSwaps very soon.
Official gold holdings by Russia & China: The word is slowly getting out. China owns well over 10,000 tons of gold bullion in reserves. They have been accumulating at a feverish pace since the 2008 Lehman bust. Actually they have been accumulating probably since they were refused the return of the Mao Tse-Tung era gold from the 1999 lease by Wall Street. The Manhattan crew reneged on the deal, letting it be known in 2007. The Chinese earned the Most Favored Nation status before the millennium change by leasing out a large block of gold reserves. The US betrayed them on the deal, to be sure standard fare for the American Nazis. The Beijing leaders decided five years ago to pursue Gold, and overturn the United States with their armada of paper mache craftsmen and bankers dedicated to espionage and hegemony. As footnote, my source informs that under the Kremlin lies perhaps 20,000 tons of gold in reserves. They have gold as old as the Vatican. The Eastern Orthodox has a large contingency in Moscow. The Russia & China tagteam are fed up with the Anglo-American monetary wars. Power is moving eastward with the gold. A new chapter cometh.
Bernanke Live Stress Test: The hack economist, whose PhD thesis has been proved false by the Bernanke Fed itself and the endless QE to Infinity, really needs a new nickname. Helicopter Ben no longer fits, since his helicopter has been dedicated within Wall Street walls, surely not to Main Street businesses or US households. How about Big Ben of the Matrix? Or Ben the Wrecking Ball? The Jackass has been firm since summer 2009 that the USFed would not escape the 0% bound on interest rates, that the USFed would slip into QE on a permanent basis, that the USFed would be stuck with ZIRP and QE forever, that the USFed would cause a global financial collapse if they tried to hike rates and return to a normal monetary policy. The Live Stress Test conducted in May and June proved by point. Next comes the derivative accidents, the beaching of the next London Whale, the arrival of more spectacular JPMorguen derivative losses, the contagion caused by a Deutsche Bank that drops dead.
Tide turning against US leadership: The seminal defeat occurred in the wake of the Lehman Brothers failure, the New York bank insolvency, the FASB accounting fraud blessing, and the major blemish to the USFed since the breakdown occurred on their watch.  Last month, the British high court ruled against the London bankers to remove sanctions against Bank Mellat, the largest private Iranian bank. Next come damage claims by the bank. The momentum has shifted. Even the onerous FACTA regulations on bank account disclosure ordered by the USGovt have been repealed.
Egypt coup d’etat is a global game changer: The Cairo leadership folded, new military power imposed, in response to rising food prices, not reported properly. Very little in political factors were at play. The ugly side effect of three years in printing money by the USFed has been to lift the entire global cost structure. The softest flank is Arab food prices. The Arabs are infamous for spending a whopping 80% of income on food. Without energy reserves, they appear to have nil skill in developing an economy without a USMilitary base on the scene. Natives in the US had been spending 15% on food until a few years ago, by comparison. The US will catch up to the Third World ratio, as it enters the Third World. The Arab Spring is not about politics, as much as rising food prices, the principal cause of revolution over the centuries. The photo from Tahrir Square in Cairo Egypt shows masses. They are very unhappy, especially with USGovt policies, both on monetary policy and on support of insurrections.

Snowden and the USGovt spying data: The young man Snowden operates as the front man stage hand in a global chess game of espionage, terrorism, embassy abuse, financial subterfuge, financial shenanigans, and much more to come. He is a kid, not a big player. He is put forward as a pawn chess piece, with heavyweight supporters. The key is knowing that 50 back doors remain open, available, with regular passage in the next few months in the vast US security databases. What will be revealed is a cornucopia of vile slimy vicious American and British directives, movements, attacks, and projects that can no longer be kept hidden behind the curtains. A vast conflict has emerged in the United States between psychopathic bad spooks and good security professionals, simply put. The lid is off. The fur will fly. The US & UK will be on the extreme defensive for nasty revealed deeds for some time to come, as stories are pried out and leaked on a systematic basis. The presentation of Snowden as a key veteran knowledgeable player is highly amusing. He is a kid whose career resume is almost as sketchy as the leader of the US land.
SIMPLE CONCLUSION:
All the above dire signals paint a picture of a collapsing financial system, of major Western banks folding like the house of cards they are, of a global revolt against the USDollar, of an unsustainable system. The events will finally result in a release of Gold from a corrupt stranglehold. The beneficiary will be the Gold & Silver prices. A grand reset is in progress. The paper wealth of the Western world is undergoing a disappearing act. The Paradigm Shift has been in progress for the last four to five years. The banking system will be restored only by return of Gold as money, with Gold placed at the center of the global financial system. Unfortunately for Western interests, the movement led by Russia and China for a trade zone and gold trade settlement will trump the Western gamers. The Eastern solution overturns the entire system with center in the New York and London crime syndicates, holed up in big bank fortresses. The Eastern solution avoids the USDollar and the entire FOREX system. It will be built upon gold trade settlement, will issue Gold Trade Notes to function like Letters of Credit, will operate as peer to peer instead of passing through the monolith banks, and will be conducted on portable devices like Smartphones and Blackberrys.
The USGovt might next ban the usage of portable telephone devices with internet capability, and deem them as terrorist tools of mass destruction. The truth of the matter is that the USDollar and its obverse USTreasury Bond are the greatest devices of mass financial destruction in the modern history of mankind. Departing from the Gold Standard in 1971 will  prove to be the root cause of a global collapse. The destruction to the US system was assured by repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. The solution to the bank collapse is the Gold Standard, which will arrive through the trade channels, not the big dead corrupt insolvent banks, and not through the corrupted FOREX tables with links to every type of fraudulent tether imaginable. Watch for the birth of the Gold Trade Standard, as history is to be made.

McCain hopes $1 coin leads to bigger tips for strippers

McCain hopes $1 coin leads to bigger tips for strippers 
 
(CNN) – If Congress passes the COINS Act replacing the $1 paper bill for a coin, the U.S. government may be able to save billions in printing costs at the expense of a little more jangle in the average consumers' pockets. But what about the strippers?
That's what The Hill newspaper asked one of the bill's co-sponsors, Sen. John McCain, in a piece published Thursday. The question came from a separate 2011 story where the publication suggested strippers could suffer in a bill-less economy, with G-strings and garter belts far less accommodating of cold metal.

For his part, the Arizona Republican responded in stride in a Capitol Hill hallway.
"Then I hope that they could obtain larger denominations," McCain reportedly told The Hill.
According to The Hill, the 76 year-old McCain started answering questions from another reporter before a smile spread across his face and he shouted down the hallway to The Hill, "Fives, tens, one hundreds!"
McCain's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Officially called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act, the COINS Act has been put before Congress multiple times in recent years. In the Senate it was most recently introduced in June as S.1105 by Tom Harkin, D-Iowa. McCain's fellow co-sponsors in the Senate are Michael Enzi, R-Wyoming, and Mark Udall, D-Colorado.
If passed, the bill would require Federal Reserve banks to stop circulating paper $1 bills within five years of the COIN Act going into effect.

Government Workers Make Double Over Private Sector – Lew Rockwell vs Government Parasite


Lew Rockwell is on the Ron Smith Show, when he gets a call from a parasitic bureacrat who is unhappy with Lew’s ideas.

The Coming Shortage Of Physical Gold That Will Change Everything

By Michael Snyder
Gold
Is the paper gold scam about to be brutally crushed by a crippling shortage of physical gold?  If so, what will that do to global financial markets?  According to the Reserve Bank of India, “the traded amount of ‘paper linked to gold’ exceeds by far the actual supply of physical gold: the volume on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) OTC market and the major Futures and Options Exchanges was OVER 92 TIMES that of the underlying Physical Market.”  In other words, there is a massive amount of paper out there, but very little actual physical gold to back it up.  And right now, we are witnessing voracious hoarding of physical gold all over the globe.  This is especially true in Asia.  Just see this article and this article.  All of this hoarding is putting a tremendous amount of pressure on those that have made all of these “paper promises”, because the truth is that there really isn’t all that much physical gold on the planet.  In fact, Warren Buffett once estimated that if all of the gold in the entire world was brought into one place, it could be formed into a cube that would only be 69 feet long by 69 feet high by 69 feet wide.
As the emerging shortage of physical gold becomes increasingly apparent, the massive Ponzi scheme that the bullion banks have been running for decades is going to completely fall apart.  The following is what Egon von Greyerz told King World News the other day…
Governments and central banks have, for decades, leased or sold their gold to the bullion banks.  So they are very likely to own very little of the 23,000 tons that Western central banks are said to hold.
But now bullion banks also have a problem:  They tried to replenish their (physical gold) coffers during the massive manipulative selling that we’ve seen over the last few months in the paper market.  Although they took the price down, most of the physical (gold) that was released by selling from ETFs and hedge funds was absorbed by Asia.
So the bullion banks are still massively short of physical gold.
Right now there simply is not enough physical gold out there and the bullion banks and the central planners are starting to panic.  One of the individuals that really has his hand on the pulse of what is going on is billionaire Eric Sprott
We have seen the COMEX inventories decline rapidly. We know that all of the dealer inventory on the COMEX has already been spoken for by delivery notices, so essentially there will be zero (inventory) if they ever make the delivery.
And the central planners (also) went to India and said, ‘Look, you’ve got to do something about all of this gold buying in India.’ So we’ve had ten different steps by the Indian government to try to curb demand — a 2% tax, a 4% tax, a 6% tax, an 8% tax, and a ruling that banks couldn’t lend money for people to buy gold.
They also convinced the Jewelers Association that as of July 1st they couldn’t sell gold bars and coins. Just last week there was a new rule implemented that if you are importing gold you have to prove that a certain amount is being re-exported. We’ve probably had ten or twelve things (restrictions) happen in six months, all of which is a huge attempt to get the second biggest buyer of gold in the world, after China, to decrease consumption because the gold isn’t around.
The central planners have arranged all of these things. I think it’s just been one big scheme to try to get people dissuaded from owning gold and to cause supply to come out. As you mentioned, because of it (central planner actions) we have the gold forward rates (for gold) being negative, backwardation, and inventories plunging, all of which have been manifested because there is a shortage of gold.
Already the emerging shortage of physical gold is starting to cause some very unusual things to happen in the financial markets.  A recent article by Reg Howedid a good job of explaining what we have been witnessing lately…


By undercutting normal gold lease rates, these super low interest rates have forced central banks to reduce their lease rates to nonsensical levels in order to prevent gold futures from going into overt backwardation. Recall that GOFO, the gold forward rate, is the interest rate for a given maturity less the lease rate for that maturity, and that a negative GOFO represents backwardation. See Gold Derivatives: GLD and Ass Backwardation (5/24/2010); Gold Derivatives: The Tide Turns (5/25/2009). Passing the argument that widely reported premiums for spot physical delivery represent a form of backwardation, figures from the LBMA have now shown a negative GOFO at the shorter maturities for almost three weeks (July 8 through July 25) due to a surge in lease rates, which still remain below more normal historical levels.
Indeed, this unusual event has attracted considerable attention even from those outside the narrow world of gold. See, e.g., J. Skoyles, Backwardation, negative GOFO and the gold priceThe Real Asset Co. (July 24, 2013); M. Kentz, Gold futures hiccup indicates demand outpacing supply,Reuters (July 19, 2013); G. Williams, What If, Things that Make You Go HmmmMauldin Economics (July 15, 2013).
The bottom line is that there is a very serious shortage of physical gold, and as this becomes increasingly apparent to the rest of the world, this is likely to cause a tremendous amount of instability in the financial markets in the months ahead.
For much more on this, please see the recent interview with Alasdair Macleod of goldmoney.com that is posted below…

Right now we are also witnessing tremendous demand for physical silver as well.
For example, the U.S. Mint is going to break the all-time record for July by a very wide margin, and it is being projected that sales of Silver Eagles will likely be above 45 million for the entire year.
And remember, unlike gold, silver is used in thousands of different consumer products.  So silver is continually being used up and taken out of the overall global supply.
If silver continues to be used at the current rate, eventually the global supply would be whittled down to almost nothing.  And right now, it appears that the industrial demand for silver is rising substantially.  For instance, a recent article by David Franklin and David Baker described the massive amount of silver that is going to be required by Japan and China as they move very heavily into solar power over the next few years…
With 5.3 gigawatts of new capacity in Japan in 2013 and up to 30 gigawatts added in China over the next three years, the solar industry could potentially have a big impact in the silver market. Silver is a key component in solar panels due to its unique electrical conductive properties, with approximately 80kg of silver required to generate 1MW of electricity. According to the Silver Institute, one megawatt of solar power requires as much as 2.8 million ounces of silver. China and Japan’s solar projects combined will add up to 27 gigawatts over the next three years. This capacity will require approximately 91 million ounces of silver, which means that China and Japan’s new demand could consume up to 11% of global mine supply – and that’s if the world produces as much silver as it did in 2012.
Silver used in solar panels cannot be recycled and therefore disappears from the world’s silver stockpile. If China and Japan can follow-through with their respective solar programs, the silver market could benefit significantly.
So what does all of this mean for you?
What it means is that while we may see wild fluctuations in the prices of gold and silver over the short-term, the long-term prognosis for both metals is absolutely fantastic.
Gold Bars

The Federal Reserve Is Bailing Out FOREIGN Banks … More than the American People or Economy

Federal Reserve Policy Mainly Benefits Big Foreign Banks

We’ve extensively documented that the Federal Reserve is intentionally locking up bank money so that it is not loaned out to Main Street. Specifically – due to Fed policy – 81.5% of all money created by quantitative easing is sitting there gathering dust in the form of “excess reserves” … instead of being loaned out to help Main Street or the American economy.
And we’ve extensively documented that a large percentage of the bailouts went to foreign banks (and see this and this). (A 2010 Fed audit also revealed that of the $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities the central bank purchased after the housing bubble popped, some $442.7 billion -  more than 35% – were bought from foreign banks.)
It turns out that these themes are all connected.
Specifically, most of the Fed-created money which is gathering dust is actually being held by foreign banks.
The Levy Economics Institute noted in May:
Excess reserves are the surplus of reserves against deposits and certain other liabilities that depository institutions (loosely called “banks”) hold above the amounts that the Board requires within ranges set by federal law. The general requirement is that covered institutions maintain reserves at least equal to ten percent of liabilities payable on demand. For the first time in history, there is statistical evidence that as much as one-half or more of excess reserves are held for United States banking offices of foreign banks.
Zero Hedge reports today:
As per last night’s [Federal Reserve] H.8 update, commercial bank deposits rose by $94 billion in the week ended July 17: the fourth largest weekly increase in history …. This took total commercial bank deposits to an all-time high of $9.54 trillion.
***
The entire difference can be attributed to the $2+ trillion in excess reserves created by the Fed since the start of the [global financial crisis] .
Speaking of Fed reserves with banks, the most recent number was $2.1 trillion, and its allocation breakdown by Domestic (small and large) and Foreign banks operating in the US is as follows:
Foreign banks continue to be the biggest beneficiary of the Fed’s monthly $85 billion liquidity largesse, just as they were the biggest winners during QE2.
In fact, the total reserve cash distribution continues to favor foreign banks, which now have a record $1.13 trillion in cash, or $9 billion more than all Domestically-chartered banks, at $1.122 trillion. The notable shift of cash reallocation from domestic to foreign banks since QE2 can be seen on the chart below.
To nobody’s surprise, global liquidity (as created by the Fed) continues to be infinitely fungible, and increasingly benefits offshore-based (mainly European) banks.
(And see this earlier report from Zero Hedge).
The Fed pays huge amounts of money to the big banks to encourage them to park their money in excess reserves, which are stored at the Fed.  In other words, the swelling excess reserves of foreign banks are yet another type of bailout of foreign banks.
We’ve repeatedly noted that loose Federal Reserve policy benefits of the super-elite at the expense of Main Street, the U.S. economy or the average American.
It now appears that the policy benefits foreign super-elite even more than the elites in the U.S.
The Federal Reserve – like many parts of the U.S. government – are sucking the prosperity out of America … and shipping it abroad.

80 Percent Of U.S. Adults Face Near-Poverty, Unemployment: Survey

WASHINGTON — Four out of 5 U.S. adults struggle with joblessness, near-poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives, a sign of deteriorating economic security and an elusive American dream.
Survey data exclusive to The Associated Press points to an increasingly globalized U.S. economy, the widening gap between rich and poor, and the loss of good-paying manufacturing jobs as reasons for the trend.
The findings come as President Barack Obama tries to renew his administration's emphasis on the economy, saying in recent speeches that his highest priority is to "rebuild ladders of opportunity" and reverse income inequality.
As nonwhites approach a numerical majority in the U.S., one question is how public programs to lift the disadvantaged should be best focused – on the affirmative action that historically has tried to eliminate the racial barriers seen as the major impediment to economic equality, or simply on improving socioeconomic status for all, regardless of race.
Hardship is particularly growing among whites, based on several measures. Pessimism among that racial group about their families' economic futures has climbed to the highest point since at least 1987. In the most recent AP-GfK poll, 63 percent of whites called the economy "poor."
"I think it's going to get worse," said Irene Salyers, 52, of Buchanan County, Va., a declining coal region in Appalachia. Married and divorced three times, Salyers now helps run a fruit and vegetable stand with her boyfriend but it doesn't generate much income. They live mostly off government disability checks.
"If you do try to go apply for a job, they're not hiring people, and they're not paying that much to even go to work," she said. Children, she said, have "nothing better to do than to get on drugs."
While racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to live in poverty, race disparities in the poverty rate have narrowed substantially since the 1970s, census data show. Economic insecurity among whites also is more pervasive than is shown in the government's poverty data, engulfing more than 76 percent of white adults by the time they turn 60, according to a new economic gauge being published next year by the Oxford University Press.
The gauge defines "economic insecurity" as experiencing unemployment at some point in their working lives, or a year or more of reliance on government aid such as food stamps or income below 150 percent of the poverty line. Measured across all races, the risk of economic insecurity rises to 79 percent.
Marriage rates are in decline across all races, and the number of white mother-headed households living in poverty has risen to the level of black ones.
"It's time that America comes to understand that many of the nation's biggest disparities, from education and life expectancy to poverty, are increasingly due to economic class position," said William Julius Wilson, a Harvard professor who specializes in race and poverty. He noted that despite continuing economic difficulties, minorities have more optimism about the future after Obama's election, while struggling whites do not.
"There is the real possibility that white alienation will increase if steps are not taken to highlight and address inequality on a broad front," Wilson said.
___
Nationwide, the count of America's poor remains stuck at a record number: 46.2 million, or 15 percent of the population, due in part to lingering high unemployment following the recession. While poverty rates for blacks and Hispanics are nearly three times higher, by absolute numbers the predominant face of the poor is white.
More than 19 million whites fall below the poverty line of $23,021 for a family of four, accounting for more than 41 percent of the nation's destitute, nearly double the number of poor blacks.
Sometimes termed "the invisible poor" by demographers, lower-income whites generally are dispersed in suburbs as well as small rural towns, where more than 60 percent of the poor are white. Concentrated in Appalachia in the East, they are numerous in the industrial Midwest and spread across America's heartland, from Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma up through the Great Plains.
Buchanan County, in southwest Virginia, is among the nation's most destitute based on median income, with poverty hovering at 24 percent. The county is mostly white, as are 99 percent of its poor.
More than 90 percent of Buchanan County's inhabitants are working-class whites who lack a college degree. Higher education long has been seen there as nonessential to land a job because well-paying mining and related jobs were once in plentiful supply. These days many residents get by on odd jobs and government checks.
Salyers' daughter, Renee Adams, 28, who grew up in the region, has two children. A jobless single mother, she relies on her live-in boyfriend's disability checks to get by. Salyers says it was tough raising her own children as it is for her daughter now, and doesn't even try to speculate what awaits her grandchildren, ages 4 and 5.
Smoking a cigarette in front of the produce stand, Adams later expresses a wish that employers will look past her conviction a few years ago for distributing prescription painkillers, so she can get a job and have money to "buy the kids everything they need."
"It's pretty hard," she said. "Once the bills are paid, we might have $10 to our name."
___
Census figures provide an official measure of poverty, but they're only a temporary snapshot that doesn't capture the makeup of those who cycle in and out of poverty at different points in their lives. They may be suburbanites, for example, or the working poor or the laid off.
In 2011 that snapshot showed 12.6 percent of adults in their prime working-age years of 25-60 lived in poverty. But measured in terms of a person's lifetime risk, a much higher number – 4 in 10 adults – falls into poverty for at least a year of their lives.
The risks of poverty also have been increasing in recent decades, particularly among people ages 35-55, coinciding with widening income inequality. For instance, people ages 35-45 had a 17 percent risk of encountering poverty during the 1969-1989 time period; that risk increased to 23 percent during the 1989-2009 period. For those ages 45-55, the risk of poverty jumped from 11.8 percent to 17.7 percent.
Higher recent rates of unemployment mean the lifetime risk of experiencing economic insecurity now runs even higher: 79 percent, or 4 in 5 adults, by the time they turn 60.
By race, nonwhites still have a higher risk of being economically insecure, at 90 percent. But compared with the official poverty rate, some of the biggest jumps under the newer measure are among whites, with more than 76 percent enduring periods of joblessness, life on welfare or near-poverty.
By 2030, based on the current trend of widening income inequality, close to 85 percent of all working-age adults in the U.S. will experience bouts of economic insecurity.
"Poverty is no longer an issue of `them', it's an issue of `us'," says Mark Rank, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis who calculated the numbers. "Only when poverty is thought of as a mainstream event, rather than a fringe experience that just affects blacks and Hispanics, can we really begin to build broader support for programs that lift people in need."
The numbers come from Rank's analysis being published by the Oxford University Press. They are supplemented with interviews and figures provided to the AP by Tom Hirschl, a professor at Cornell University; John Iceland, a sociology professor at Penn State University; the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute; the Census Bureau; and the Population Reference Bureau.
Among the findings:
_For the first time since 1975, the number of white single-mother households living in poverty with children surpassed or equaled black ones in the past decade, spurred by job losses and faster rates of out-of-wedlock births among whites. White single-mother families in poverty stood at nearly 1.5 million in 2011, comparable to the number for blacks. Hispanic single-mother families in poverty trailed at 1.2 million.
_Since 2000, the poverty rate among working-class whites has grown faster than among working-class nonwhites, rising 3 percentage points to 11 percent as the recession took a bigger toll among lower-wage workers. Still, poverty among working-class nonwhites remains higher, at 23 percent.
_The share of children living in high-poverty neighborhoods – those with poverty rates of 30 percent or more – has increased to 1 in 10, putting them at higher risk of teenage pregnancy or dropping out of school. Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 17 percent of the child population in such neighborhoods, compared with 13 percent in 2000, even though the overall proportion of white children in the U.S. has been declining.
The share of black children in high-poverty neighborhoods dropped from 43 percent to 37 percent, while the share of Latino children went from 38 percent to 39 percent.
_Race disparities in health and education have narrowed generally since the 1960s. While residential segregation remains high, a typical black person now lives in a nonmajority black neighborhood for the first time. Previous studies have shown that wealth is a greater predictor of standardized test scores than race; the test-score gap between rich and low-income students is now nearly double the gap between blacks and whites.
___
Going back to the 1980s, never have whites been so pessimistic about their futures, according to the General Social Survey, a biannual survey conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. Just 45 percent say their family will have a good chance of improving their economic position based on the way things are in America.
The divide is especially evident among those whites who self-identify as working class. Forty-nine percent say they think their children will do better than them, compared with 67 percent of nonwhites who consider themselves working class, even though the economic plight of minorities tends to be worse.
Although they are a shrinking group, working-class whites – defined as those lacking a college degree – remain the biggest demographic bloc of the working-age population. In 2012, Election Day exit polls conducted for the AP and the television networks showed working-class whites made up 36 percent of the electorate, even with a notable drop in white voter turnout.
Last November, Obama won the votes of just 36 percent of those noncollege whites, the worst performance of any Democratic nominee among that group since Republican Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide victory over Walter Mondale.
Some Democratic analysts have urged renewed efforts to bring working-class whites into the political fold, calling them a potential "decisive swing voter group" if minority and youth turnout level off in future elections. "In 2016 GOP messaging will be far more focused on expressing concern for `the middle class' and `average Americans,'" Andrew Levison and Ruy Teixeira wrote recently in The New Republic.
"They don't trust big government, but it doesn't mean they want no government," says Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who agrees that working-class whites will remain an important electoral group. His research found that many of them would support anti-poverty programs if focused broadly on job training and infrastructure investment. This past week, Obama pledged anew to help manufacturers bring jobs back to America and to create jobs in the energy sectors of wind, solar and natural gas.
"They feel that politicians are giving attention to other people and not them," Goeas said.
___
AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writer Debra McCown in Buchanan County, Va., contributed to this report.
___

The United States of… Class War, Inequality, and Poverty

New economic data obtained and analyzed by the Associated Press appears to show that when billionaire financier Warren Buffett says, “There’s class warfare, all right.. and we’re winning,” he knows what he’s talking about.
According to the report by AP, four out of every five American adults will “struggle with joblessness, near poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives” revealing the strained fabric of a national economy which once saw the meteoric rise of the middle class returned to a state where increasing inequality is the norm and class tensions—though often muted for popular discussion—is undermining the prospects for tens of millions.
“It’s time that America comes to understand that many of the nation’s biggest disparities, from education and life expectancy to poverty, are increasingly due to economic class position.”
The resulting analysis of the numbers by AP points to an “increasingly globalized U.S. economy”—in which companies search the globe for low wages, minimized regulation, and corporate-friendly tax rates—as the main driver of the “widening gap between rich and poor” and the destruction of the manufacturing base that historians and economists credit for previous and more widely shared prosperity.
Responding to the survey, William Julius Wilson, a Harvard professor who specializes in race and poverty, told AP: “It’s time that America comes to understand that many of the nation’s biggest disparities, from education and life expectancy to poverty, are increasingly due to economic class position.”
The report shows the economic hardships faced by low-income and middle class workers across age and race demographics and shows that though divisions of social mobility and economic gains shift differently along racial and geographic lines, the overall trend is one inherently built on economic class.
“Poverty is no longer an issue of ‘them’, it’s an issue of ‘us’,” said Mark Rank, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis who calculated the numbers for AP. “Only when poverty is thought of as a mainstream event, rather than a fringe experience that just affects blacks and Hispanics, can we really begin to build broader support for programs that lift people in need.”
Among some of the survey’s specific findings:
The risks of poverty [...] have been increasing in recent decades, particularly among people ages 35-55, coinciding with widening income inequality. For instance, people ages 35-45 had a 17 percent risk of encountering poverty during the 1969-1989 time period; that risk increased to 23 percent during the 1989-2009 period. For those ages 45-55, the risk of poverty jumped from 11.8 percent to 17.7 percent.
By race, nonwhites still have a higher risk of being economically insecure, at 90 percent. But compared with the official poverty rate, some of the biggest jumps under the newer measure are among whites, with more than 76 percent enduring periods of joblessness, life on welfare or near-poverty.
By 2030, based on the current trend of widening income inequality, close to 85 percent of all working-age adults in the U.S. will experience bouts of economic insecurity.
_________________________________________
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License
Republished from: Common Dreams