Concocting the Appearance of Recovery

by spinning the financial news, the appearance of recovery is created, and this lures people back into the stock and real estate markets where they can lose the remainder of their wealth.

Last Friday a Bloomberg.com headline read: “US Stocks Gain, Treasuries Drop as Unemployment Rate Declines”.

Let’s have a look at the reported decline in the rate of unemployment. Do you believe that the US auto industry added 28,000 jobs in July amidst GM bankruptcy, sell-off and close-down of GM auto divisions, and demise of GM suppliers? No? Well, that’s what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

The 28,000 new jobs were created by “seasonal adjustments.” July is a month when jobs are automatically added by the BLS to seasonally smooth the layoffs of auto workers during July’s retooling for the new model year. This year most of the retooling did not occur, yet the annual seasonal adjustments did. Adjustments are also made for supporting industries, which are partially idled while auto production halts for retooling.

More phantom jobs were created by the “Birth-Death Model.” The payroll jobs data contains guesses about the numbers of new startup company hires and jobs lost from business failures. Failed businesses don’t report the lost jobs (deaths), and new jobs from startups (births) are not captured in the reporting. The government estimates these numbers, but the estimates are based mainly on growth periods, not on recessionary times. Consequently, during economic downturns, the estimates from the Birth-Death Model overestimate the number of new startup jobs and underestimate the job loss.

The employment outlook was further improved by pushing another cadre of workers, who have been unemployed for too long, off the unemployment rolls. Remember that the long-term discouraged (people out of work for more than one year) are not counted as being in the work force. The length of the current downturn means that short-term discouraged workers, who are counted among the unemployed, are now moving into the long-term discouraged category, which simply erases their existence and lowers the measured rate of unemployment.

All sorts of distortions can find their way into the official statistics. For example, industrial production estimates are based on electricity consumption. Unusually hot weather, which causes a jump in air conditioning use, appears in the statistics as an increase in industrial output. Cool weather spells during summer reduces electricity use and results in a phantom drop in industrial output.

Nominal retail sales figures can increase from an uptick in inflation.

An increase in real GDP can be the result of underestimating inflation.

Other distortions come from the year to year comparisons. As time passes, new comparisons are no longer with previous peaks, but with more recent lows. Thus, reported declines are less severe than previously, which makes things sound better when they aren’t.

By spinning the financial news, the appearance of recovery is created, and this lures people back into the stock and real estate markets where they can lose the remainder of their wealth.

--Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions. He can be reached at: #

by Paul Craig Roberts
(Middle Eats Online)

The big crisis is ahead of us - Marc Faber 08/12/2009

馬政府救災不力 外國媒體也搖頭

馬政府救災不力，國內不滿聲浪高漲，連國外媒體也搖頭。莫拉克颱風重創台灣，馬英九政府救災遲緩無能，災民怒火爆發，矛頭對準馬英九，不但國內輿論痛批，國際媒體也對馬政府救災能力質疑。

CNN及各大國際通訊社持續報導災情、救援、災民對救災速度緩慢的憤怒與沮喪，美聯社和法新社均指出馬政府救災不力、速度過慢，災民及媒體批評聲浪愈來愈大。

美 國紐約時報十三日刊出題為「台灣總統在颱風後成為民怨箭靶」（Taiwan President Is Target of Anger After Typhoon）報導，指去年總統選舉大勝的馬英九，現在聲望直直落，此次救災不僅是馬從政以來的不愉快經驗，更是攸關他政治事業成敗的大考驗。

報導說，行政院長劉兆玄自認救災行動「很快」，但災民感受和媒體現場觀察完全相反，馬英九和劉兆玄連日勘災行程中，處處遭災民嗆聲與怒責。

華爾街日報指出，台灣民眾對政府救災應對批評與日俱增，災民和媒體將矛頭對準馬英九，馬面對受難者家屬的反應，更被許多民眾認為只是敷衍。

紐時記者自高雄縣旗山的報導指出，馬英九近日勘災時，除遭災民包圍哭訴求援外，也被倖存者指責政府救災效率不彰，像哭求馬英九尋找失蹤父親的台東災民李昱穎，等了兩天仍未得到所承諾的協助後，自行僱用怪手開挖，並向電視台抱怨這算哪門子援助！

英國獨立電視網ITN記者質問馬英九總統，對此次風災準備是否應該更充分?馬則用英文回答稱，當地首見如此災情，以致民眾沒有充分準備，否則應該會更早撤離。

國 民黨營的中央日報報導，莫拉克災情嚴重，馬英九總統前日到高雄旗山慰問災民，被外國媒體問及風災準備是否周全？馬英九表示，南台灣從未遇過這麼嚴重的風 災，民眾一時未做好充足準備，如果有做好準備，民眾就會及早撤離，可是他們死守著家園。這段訪問播出後，引發網友強烈的炮轟，痛批「災民何辜，總統竟還推 諉卸責」。

親國民黨的中國時報14日報導，馬英九十二日赴旗山收容所慰問甲仙鄉小林村、那瑪夏鄉、六龜鄉等地災區家屬，在場的英國獨立 電視台記者在馬英九要上車前高聲詢問「政府對這次颱風做了什麼防災工作？」馬英九停下腳步用英文回答「這是第一次遇到這麼大的災害，所以「他們」沒有做好 充分準備」。 馬英九進一步指出，「這個地區從來沒這麼嚴重過，所以民眾沒有做好充足的準備，如果有做好準備，「他們」就會及早撤離，可是「他們」死守家園，你看看，他 們沒有理解到這次風災有多嚴重。」。

影片昨日播出後，氣憤的網友將訪問對答翻成中英對照版，並轉貼在YOUTUBE網站，並在網路上快速轉寄，許多看到影片的網友群情激憤，痛罵馬英九不能苦民所苦，還推諉卸責，多次使用「他們」字眼，「先推給氣象局，再推給地方政府，現在連災民都遭殃。」

民進黨立委痛批，馬英九這樣說只差沒用中文罵災民死有餘辜，這是一個「殘忍又丟臉的國家元首」，馬英九用如此輕蔑的態度面對災民，顯示既沒心也沒能力面對這場災難。

總統接受訪問失言遭炮轟，總統府發言人王郁琦昨日表示，馬總統之所以會說災民未及早撤離，是因為這次颱風來襲時，的確有一部分災民不願意撤離的情況。

王郁琦說，這幾天馬總統去勘災，救難隊和軍方均反映，在撤離災民時遇到不願意撤離的狀況，甚至有直升機去災民不願意上機，所以有時候會有無奈的情況。因此，未來若再遇到同樣的情形，災害防救法賦予法律的依據，政府有必要時可以強制撤離。

台灣‧專家：救人已太慢‧救援隊現只能救屍體

（台灣‧高雄）“現在搶救人命已太慢了，救援隊只是進入災區搶救屍體！”

搜救隊表示，要挖走小林村的泥土需時超過3個月。有消息指，當局已經作最壞打算，為當地準備了超過1000個屍袋。

中央災害應變中心表示，小林村有169戶、398人遭埋。但正確數據得待軍人開路進入村裡才能知曉。台灣官方目前公佈的死亡數據為116人。

嘉義縣東石村的洪水還未消退，軍方人員正協助村民把貴重物品運送到安全的地點。（圖：美聯社）

小林村死亡人數或逾300

儘管小林村至今未挖出一具屍體，但高雄縣長楊秋興估計，小林村死亡人數可能在300人上下，縣府已做了“滅村”的最壞打算。楊秋興表示，活要見人、死要見屍。

此外，桃源鄉也有5個村至少900名村民已失去聯絡6天，桃源鄉代會秘書白樣說：“梅山、梅蘭、復興三村可能已滅村”。高雄縣災害應變中心已準備1100個屍袋分批運往災區。

桃源鄉全鄉2000多人，大都是布農族原住民，如桃源鄉就此不見，等於十分之一的布農族人消失。對族人6天來音信全無，救援人員又無法進入，鄉公所人員哽咽說：“如果撐不了，也只好放棄。”

高雄六龜鄉處處“大塚場”

此外，高雄六龜鄉則處處是“大塚場”，新發村新開部落活埋了32人，寶來、荖濃和中興村也各有20多人被埋，估計被沖走的活埋者超過百人。

甲仙鄉對外道路週四（8月13日）搶通後，不少村民冒險回去，在路邊插香，擺起供品，對著遠方已成一片泥河的家鄉祭拜。

在週四到小林村重災區搜救的台灣“國際緊急救難總隊”教官吳承錩表示，此次救援行動相當困難，由於山泥傾瀉，民眾被沖走或被土石活埋，由於屍體是整個埋在土石下方，搜救“就像是大海撈針”。他說，此前在台東的搜救6天以來“沒有搜救到任何一個人”。

生還村民建議不要開挖
小林村闢建為紀念公園

高雄縣那瑪夏鄉小林村9到18鄰遭土石流淹沒，逃出的村民建議不要開挖，闢建為紀念公園；縣長楊秋興週五表示，在開挖過程中，難免讓罹難村民的屍體肢離破碎，他樂見闢建為紀念公園。

他也表示，縣府不會放棄找尋生還者的機會，也會協助災民重建家園。

召開救災會議
馬預測罹難者逾500人

馬英九今日（週五，8月14日）表示，他預測“莫拉克”風災造成的死亡人數將超過500人。

馬英九是在當天早上召開救災會議時作出上述表示。

馬英九表示，“莫拉克”風災的嚴重程度超過50年前的八七水災，他下令全島總動員方式，以做好救災、安置與重建，助災民回復正常生活。

他說：“災後安置與重建的工作，已經展開，它的迫切性跟救災是一樣的，但是它的繁重與困難，猶有過之，政府責無旁貸，必須克服萬難，完成任務。”

這是馬英九以“國家安全會議”主席的身份，召開上任以來第一次“國家安全會議”。

出席會議的包括行政院長劉兆玄及相關部會首長、立法院長王金平、國民黨主席吳伯雄與秘書長吳敦義等人。

“莫拉克”颱風重創台灣，迄今統計死亡人數超過120人。

其中重災區高雄縣小林村，地方官員估計，可能有約380人被山泥活埋，生存機會渺茫，整體死亡人數上調至500人以上，7000多人無家可歸。

另外，高雄縣荖濃溪及台東縣太麻里溪上游都發現多處堰塞湖，危機四伏，當地相關居民都已陸續撤離。

斷水斷糧野菜也吃光
重傷母親在懷中斷氣

台灣軍方出動近5萬名軍人全力搶救受困民眾，迄今已有4萬4000名災民被救出，但仍有上萬名災民受困災區。生命和死神正在拔河。

灰髮蒼蒼的68歲老先生李文川說，村裡喪生的32名村人都是他的朋友與家人。“這是我所遇過最大的不幸。我的人生再也不一樣了。”

村民已習慣了在每年6至9月的颱風季節，都得面對土石流問題。但這一次真的是不一樣。

育有兩名子女的32歲婦女潘怡嫦說：“一切發生得很快，洪水毀了所有東西。”她的父母、丈夫、小孩都獲救了。

民眾抱怨救災太慢

許多獲救的村民表示，他們無法重返家園，因為他們已經一無所有。

許多民眾抱怨政府救災太慢，並指出如果救援快點的話，還有更多人可獲救。

一名親人困在高雄山區的婦女，眼中噙淚地說：“等了好幾天，都沒有人來救我們家裡的人，空投根本又不到，為甚麼政府只是講一些沒有用的話？”

有災民傳手機短訊求救指“斷水斷糧，甚至野菜也吃光”。

更甚的事，在風雨中，抱著重傷的母親3天3夜，最後望著母親在自己懷中斷氣，那是何等心痛？

住在高雄縣那瑪夏鄉的李長榮哽咽地說：“手中抱著的媽媽失溫、斷氣，難過到差點也停止了呼吸……”，但“比起全家都被土石掩埋的村民，我們已經很幸運了！”

澄清拒受國際援助指責
台指美日新中已捐款

針對有關政府拒絕接受國際援助的指責，馬英九政府作出澄清，聲稱美國、日本、新加坡和中國已捐款賑災，政府也欣然接受，而現在最需要的則是可吊掛怪手的大型直升機以及組合屋。

外交部週五指出，第一批由新加坡捐助的糧食和藥物將抵達台灣。

外交部並稱，政府已要求國際協助提供救援器材，逾50個國家表達慰問和提供協助的意願。

而在11日才表示尚未接到台灣援助要求的美國，12日改口指台灣當局曾請求援助，美國也給了台灣紅十字會，一張25萬美元的支票。

另外，行政院新聞局長蘇俊賓指出，“莫拉克”已造成超過新台幣700億元損失。

台灣“莫拉克”颱風災情

時間：截至週四（8月13日）晚10時
死亡：116人（官方公佈數字，不包括小林村至少380人活埋）
失蹤：59人
受傷：45人
停水：38萬3544戶
停電：2萬零796戶
農林漁牧損失：新台幣100億6737萬元（約馬幣10億7610萬令吉）

各方對台捐款

中國海協會：人民幣1億600萬元、港幣500萬元
中國紅十字總會：人民幣1500萬元
香港特區政府：港幣5000萬元
香港首富李嘉誠：新台幣1億元
澳門紅十字會：270萬澳門元
日本政府：10萬3000美元
美國政府：25萬美元
梵蒂岡教宗若保祿二世：5萬美元
新加坡政府：20萬美元

台灣‧不滿救災太慢‧網民促罷免馬英九

（台灣‧台北）台灣總統馬英九面臨上台以來最大的執政危機！

“莫拉克”颱風重創台灣，災情慘烈，儘管馬英九連日在災區勘察，但面對他“慢半拍”的做法，網民恫言要聯署罷免馬英九。

台灣《蘋果日報》指出，馬英九一直拒絕頒佈緊急命令救災，已經令台灣網民看不過眼，近日發起 “一人一信”行動，向國際社會發電郵，告訴外界“台灣需要幫助！”“救救台灣”等，收信者包括國際知名傳媒如英國廣播公司（BBC）、美國有線新聞網絡 （CNN）、《紐約時報》，以及各國政府、聯合國人道援助機構，甚至寄到白宮。

有網友呼吁立法院改組，揚言聯署罷免馬英九。

各傳媒調查均顯示，近半或以上民眾均不滿馬英九及執政團隊的救災表現。

連日來，馬英九在災區勘察災情時，頻頻被災民嗆聲，雖然他不停道歉，但有災民不領情，痛批政治人物根本是“做秀”。

除了馬英九，馬政府團隊的高官在災區時，同樣成為災民指摘的箭靶。

台灣輿論指出，災情發生後，外界原本期望馬英九能指揮若定，將救災工作領上正軌，但電視上的馬英九更像一位“安慰大使”，只會安慰、同情災民，甚至向災民提出“你現在需要我們做甚麼？”這樣的問題。

輿論並質疑，馬英九今次救災嚴重失分，將影響他3年後競選連任。

馬歸咎災民死守未準備
網友炮轟推卸責任

在美國有線新聞網絡（CNN）的短訪中，馬英九將洪水帶來的嚴重災情，歸咎於村民未能在颱風前遷出家園。

在受災最慘的高雄縣，當地政府的確要求災區的居民在颱風來襲前撤離。但是他們並未強制撤離，而有些村民也堅持不離開。

馬英九說：“他們沒有準備好，如果準備好的話早就該撤了。但他們不瞭解這次災難的嚴重性。”

針對政府是否盡到了疏散居民的責任，馬英九未表示任何意見。

這段訪問播出後，引發網友強烈的炮轟，痛批“災民何辜，總統竟還推諉卸責”。

氣憤的網友將訪問對答翻成中英對照版，並轉貼在YOUTUBE網站，並在網路上快速轉寄，許多看到影片的網友群情激憤，痛罵馬英九不能苦民所苦，還推諉卸責，“先推給氣象局，再推給地方政府，現在連災民都遭殃。”

也有網友不滿政府踢皮球，質疑“難道我們的政府是足球隊組成的？”網友也反問馬英九，“災民渴望又無助，為甚麼你不會對國外媒體說：台灣希望幫助，我背後與身旁的人民需要幫助？”

網民狠批馬英九政府

“政府到底在幹嘛！這種狀況就是傾全國之力也不為過，黃金72小時都已經超過140小時了，別再廢話了，趕快救人吧！”

“山上又冷又濕，災民們真的是過著非人的日子。”

“國軍通通出去救災，可能馬上救出一半以上受困民眾，這麼晚才出動，我真的無敵佩服政府的怠惰。”

“這次政府真是慢半拍，如果馬英九有溫家寶guts早救出大半的人了！”

“馬英九終於宣佈同意外國救援了……慢郎中的總統！”

“馬英九總統跟你的幕僚，救援再這麼慢的話，我下一次不會再投給你們了！也會叫我的朋友不要投給你們！你們真的讓我很失望！”

“讓你（劉兆玄）當院長是要你好好做事，不是要你在那裡耍嘴皮子。”

Consumers not feeling a recovery

Surprise drop in July retail sales and an unexpected decline in Wal-Mart's same-store sales show Americans still aren't in the mood to spend.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Two key reports Thursday showed one thing: happy days are not here again for American consumers.

Retail sales fell in July after two straight months of gains, the government reported Thursday, a drop that surprised economists. Without car sales from the "Cash for Clunkers," the numbers would have been even worse.

And Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), the world's largest retailer, reported an unexpected decline in its key measure of U.S. sales.

"From a consumer finance position, people are still struggling," said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Economy.com. "Wages have fallen from the previous year and consumers don't [still] have alternative sources of cash."

0:00 /1:56Xmas spending ... now?

Consumer spending fuels two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States. So even though an economic recovery could use people splurging on coats, bags and shoes again, Hoyt said it's unlikely that consumers are going to lead the nation out of this recession.

"There will have to be other areas providing the lift to the economy such as business investment and inventory levels," Hoyt said

Reality check: The Commerce Department said total retail sales declined 0.1% in July, compared with June's revised gain of 0.8%. Total sales were originally reported to have increased 0.6%.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected June sales to increase 0.7%.

Sales excluding autos and auto parts also registered an unexpected decline of 0.6%, compared to a revised 0.5% increase in the measure in June. Sales, excluding autos, were originally reported to have increased 0.3% in the prior month.

Economists had forecast a gain of 0.1% in July sales, excluding auto purchases.

"This is awful. A reality check for the green shooters," Ian Shepherson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note Thursday

"The big story is the core [retail sales]. Excluding autos, gas and food, sales fell 0.4%. That's the fifth straight decline," Shepherdson said. "People are cash-constrained and credit-starved. Remember, their spending accounts for 89% of private sector GDP."

While the Cash for Clunkers program did create some "healthy" demand for new automobiles "there were widespread declines everywhere else," Hoyt said.

Excluding a 2.4% gain in automobile sales and a 0.6% gain in clothing purchases in the month, most other retail categories suffered sales declines.

The government report showed building materials sales fell 2.1%, electronics purchases fell 1.4%, department store sales slumped 1.6% and sales at general merchandise stores declined 0.8%.

Furniture sales fell 0.9% and sales at food and beverage sellers declined 0.3% in the month.

Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said in a statement Thursday that, despite the slight decline in retail sales, the Obama administration remains "encouraged that the Recovery Act and other economic initiatives have stabilized conditions and helped those harmed by the economic crisis."

"The road to recovery is long, but with every recovery dollar we spend and project we start, we are one step closer to getting there," he said.

Weakness at Wal-Mart: The much worse-than-expected government report followed a worrisome quarterly report from Wal-Mart in which the discount giant logged an unexpected 1.2% drop in its second-quarter same-store sales.

Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart said it earned 88 cents a share in the three months ended July 31 compared to 86 cents a year earlier.

The earnings were at the high end of Wal-Mart's own forecast range of between 83 cents and 88 cents, and topped analysts' consensus expectations of 86 cents a share.

Wal-Mart's revenue for the quarter decreased 1.4% to $100 billion, which the retailer blamed on the negative impact from exchange rate fluctuations.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had forecast an increase of 1% in same-store sales.

Given Wal-Mart's dominance in the retailing industry, and the fact that more than 200 million consumers shop at its stores every week, the seller is seen as a barometer of the health of the consumer and of the economy.

While most of its peers have been struggling to grow sales through the recession, Wal-Mart's been one of the lucky few that has grown its market share, as more consumers across all income levels trade down in their discretionary purchases to its value prices.

From April 2008 to April 2009, Wal-Mart reported 13 straight months of same-store sales gains. The company stopped reporting monthly same-store sales in May, moving to a quarterly reporting of its comparable sales.

To that end, last quarter's same-store sales decline marks the first drop in that measure for Wal-Mart in more than a year.

Not worried: However, Wal-Mart executives said in a statement that the company's quarterly performance "has been good, despite headwinds from price deflation, the effects of the recession and currency exchange rates."

"Even though our comparable sales were lower than we had expected, we believe our comparable sales outperformed the retail sector almost in every place that we do business," Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke said in the company's pre-recorded call to discuss its results.

Duke also said Wal-Mart saw increased foot traffic in its U.S. stores last quarter. The company said its expects third-quarter same-store sales for the 13-week period from Aug. 1 through Oct. 30 to be between flat and up 2%.

For his part, Hoyt said he's not too surprised by the drop in Wal-Mart's same-store sales. He pointed out that the retailer got a big sales lift in the same period last year from the government rebate checks that were given to consumers in an attempt to boost spending.

Last year, Wal-Mart offered free rebate cash checking in its stores in an attempt to grab a bigger share of the rebate money, a strategy that helped pump up its same-store sales 5.8% in June and 3% in July.

"The stimulus that consumers got this year was not concentrated in one quarter but was spread out over the last nine months," Hoyt said.

By Parija B. Kavilanz

What the Fed will say today

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its plans for interest rates today. Supposedly, the stock market is on hold until the Fed speaks. But it is not even clear why stocks rallied 47 percent since March's S&P 500 low of 676, that the state of the economy has anything to do with it, and whether anything that the Fed says or does will make a difference.

In a TV interview last night, I said that stocks had been rising due to the actions of traders, not investors. There are two games that traders play that have been driving up stocks. One is so-called flash trading, where big institutions hide behind dark pools to anonymize their front-running of orders to major exchanges through super-powerful computers. The second is making bets on earnings outcomes and profiting from short-covering when those results turn out to be better than expected.

I also predicted that the Fed would keep rates where they are because the risks of deflation are still so high that despite putting $23.7 trillion in financial bailout obligations on the U.S.'s balance sheet, the need to raise rates appears far off. Those risks were highlighted in a productivity report that showed output per worker had risen 6.4 percent while unit labor costs fell 5.8 percent.

As unemployment climbs towards 10 percent -- a level it is expected to hit and stay above in 2010 -- this means that workers -- whose spending accounts for 70 percent of economic growth -- will be hard pressed to increase their spending. Moreover, with capacity utilization at 68 percent -- in a strong economy it would be at 82 percent -- the potential to cut more people to boost that utilization rate, remains high.

Sure there are signs that the number of monthly jobless is declining, but as long as we continue to allow speculators -- who account for 81 percent of oil trading -- to place bets on rising oil and a declining dollar there remains some potential for stagflation. Here, all those unemployed people would be forced to pay more for gasoline and other commodities so that Wall Street traders can buy their Maseratis.

So what does this mean for investing in stocks? After getting burned by the dot-com crash, the collapse in housing prices, and last year's 50 percent plunge in global stock prices, individuals are not inclined to buy stocks now -- even if they had any extra cash. Some stocks, like Bank of America (BAC) are up five-fold from their lows, but due to the tens of billions worth of toxic waste on their balance sheets it is still impossible to estimate their future profits or their net worth.

If you're going to look at investing in stocks, consider ones that have earnings growth like Strayer Education (STRA). It has done well in a down market and it was among the best Why? People return to school in a recession and Strayer is making money and it just raised its guidance. Whether the price is right or not I don't know but I think it would be worth looking at.

Meanwhile, the Fed will say that it is keeping rates low, adding liquidity as needed and that it believes the risk of inflation is low as long as the economy remains fragile. The Fed may also point out that it is poised to tighten if the economy starts growing -- but that could be years off.

Update. the Fed just announced that it would leave rates unchanged and that by the end of October it will end a program of injecting liquidity into the economy by buying treasury securities.

Peter Cohan is a management consultant, Babson professor and author of eight books including, You Can't Order Change. Follow him on Twitter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

by Peter Cohan

Hawaii is gonna get a storm, and THIS time, we really REALLY mean it! Honest!

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Click image to zoom in – Turn track on – Download GIS data
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
Note: If a storm is expected to dissipate within 5 days, its track will be shorter

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.

8/12 Freedom Watch Video is Posted!

Rep Ron Paul

NEW: 5 Simple Ways to Save Money in this Recession (By Opting OUT...):

Blog reactions

中國‧專家：屬高祖母宣太後‧兵馬俑主人非秦始皇

（中國‧北京）兵馬俑的主人並非秦始皇，而是他的高祖母宣太後？

來自中國南京的72歲古建築專家陳景元，將自己30多年研究成果匯集，寫成《兵馬俑真相：俑坑的主人不是秦始皇》一書，他在書中從服飾、軍事、交通等角度對兵馬俑進行了剖析，指出兵馬俑的主人，很可能是秦始皇的高祖母——把持秦國朝政41年的宣太後。

宣太後是秦惠文王的王后，姓羋，是楚國的王族。秦惠文王死了以後，太後執政41年，史稱宣太後。

沒挖掘到真正始皇陵

陳景元指出，目前還沒挖掘到真的始皇陵，而是在始皇陵附近的宣太後陵。

他說，依照史書記載，始皇陵在新豐縣西南10里，宣太後陵在新豐縣南14里，而目前發掘到的秦俑坑就在宣太後陵的所在。

數十年來，他不斷蒐集資料，實地考證，發現兵馬俑的主人若是秦始皇的話，兵馬俑的一些特徵則成為難解的懸疑。

兵馬俑與戰場士兵不同

陳景元指出，兵馬俑與一般戰場上的士兵不同，不僅沒有戴頭盔，而且梳著奇怪的“歪髻、偏髻”，像是楚國人的髮型。

此外，剛出土的兵馬俑，身上還殘留著一些顏料，由此判斷，他們的衣服應絢麗多彩，不符合秦始皇“尚黑”的政策。

而與兵馬俑一起出土的車輿，寬度不一，尺寸不同，也秦始皇生前要求全國都要“車同軌”不符。

陳景元還提出，陶俑身上刻一個羋字。在宣太後的先生惠文王興建的阿房宮遺址上，也發現了不少羋字，而羋正是宣太後的姓，所以，他認為，目前挖出來的秦俑應該是宣太後的，不是她的玄孫贏政的。

新加坡‧站太久、扛重物‧子宮易下垂‧空姐護士教師首當其衝

（新加坡）站太久、常扛重物，可能令女性出現子宮下垂的問題，空姐、護士、教師首當其沖！

別以為只有生產過的婦女才可能患上子宮下垂，站太久、腹壓大也可讓女性成為“受害者”。

子宮下垂也叫“子宮脫垂”，是指子宮內壁不能良好收縮復原，盆腔韌帶和肌肉鬆弛或退化，不能承托子宮而令子宮下垂到陰道內。

婦產及婦女泌尿專科鐘耀倫顧問醫生受訪時說，因為婦女在懷孕期或分娩期間，支持子宮的韌帶、產道、骨盆等部位的肌肉，都得承受重量壓迫，因而損害到子宮的韌帶和肌肉，所以出現子宮下垂情況的，絕大多數是生產過多次的婦女。

慢性咳嗽肥胖也可導致

但他指出，慢性咳嗽、肥胖，甚至經常長時間站立、常搬或抱重物，也可導致子宮下垂。

“因為腹腔壓力的增加，使骨盆裡面支持子宮的韌帶變松，以致無法再有效的支持子宮在原來正常的位置，而往下掉落。”

“這無形中讓空姐、護士、教師等提高成為患者的幾率，因為她們在職場不但需長時間站著，空姐還須幫助搭客搬行李、教師也須提學生的課本到處走。”

他透露，根據英國最近針對4000多名未分娩過的護士進行的調查，有16.8%有漏尿的情況。這證明子宮的韌帶和肌肉已開始鬆弛，而每兩名有漏尿現象的女性中，就有1名患有子宮下垂。

女性應避免便秘

他認為，平時女性也該避免便秘，因為任何向子宮施加壓力的動作，都會增加患上子宮下垂的幾率。

鐘耀倫醫生建議女性，平常可做收腹提肛運動，鍛煉盆底的肌肉。“感覺就像是在‘憋尿或憋屎’一樣，但千萬不要在如廁時這麼做。”