Tuesday, February 25, 2014

DAP: Rakyat dapat BR1M RM1,200 jika MAS raih untung

Ketua Menteri Pulau Pinang, Lim Guan Eng berkata rakyat di negara ini berpeluang memperoleh Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) sebanyak RM1,200 sebagaimana dijanjikan dalam manifesto Barisan Nasional (BN) Pilihan Raya Umum ke 13 (PRU13) jika Malaysia Airlines (MAS) tidak mengalami kerugian.
Setiausaha agung DAP itu berkata, kerugian tiga tahun berturut-turut oleh MAS berjumlah RM4.1 bilion hampir mencukupi untuk menaikkan BR1M daripada RM650 kepada RM1,200.
"Sekiranya (MAS) tidak mengalami kerugian besar sebanyak RM4.1 bilion dalam tempoh 3 tahun lalu, maka penerima BR1M dapat menikmati RM1,200 seperti yang dijanjikan di bawah Manifesto PRU13 BN, dan bukannya dikurangkan kepada RM650.
"MAS mengalami kerugian sebanyak RM1.17 bilion tahun lalu, RM433 juta pada 2012 dan RM2.5 bilion pada 2011. Kerugian tiga tahun ini yang berjumlah RM4.1 bilion hampir mencukupi untuk menampung perbezaan RM650 (yang berjumlah RM4.5 billion) yang diperlukan untuk menaikkan BR1M," katanya dalam satu kenyataan hari ini.
Beliau juga kesal apabila sehingga kini MAS masih belum mengemukakan pelan pemulihan yang boleh dilaksanakan untuk mengekang kerugian kewangan berterusan.
Katanya, Khazanah Nasional selaku pemilik MAS digesa mencari penyelesaian tuntas dengan menerima hakikat syarikat penerbangan tempatan itu sudah tidak berdaya maju dengan struktur kos semasa.
"MAS mungkin berfikir bahawa kerugian ini mampan kerana masih mempunyai baki tunai sebanyak RM3.9 bilion pada akhir tahun lalu.
"Dengan pemikiran tersebut dilihat sangat tidak bertanggungjawab dan berbahaya untuk meneruskan perniagaan seperti biasa," katanya.
Beliau juga menyelar Kementerian Pengangkutan apabila tidak berusaha menjalankan projek infrastrukrur secara efektif sepertimana yang dibuktikan dengan peningkatan limpahan kos dan kelewatan dalam projek Klia2.
Katanya, Menteri Pengangkutan, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein perlu menerima tawaran berkerjasama dengan pengasas Air Asia, Tan Sri Tony Fernandes.
"Masanya sudah tiba untuk menteri pengangkutan mengenepikan ego demi kepentingan negara dengan bekerjasama dengan Fernandes.
"Jika Hishammuddin enggan menerima kepakaran Fernandes, yang dengan tajam mengingatkan bahawa Terminal Penerbangan Kos Rendah di Sepang hanya bernilai RM250 juta berbanding Klia2 yang kini mencecah RM4 bilion, maka negara kita yang akan rugi," katanya.
Bagaimanapun, beliau mempunyai pendapat berbeza dengan Singapore Business Times yang mencadangkan MAS diistiharkan muflis bagi membenarkan permulaan baru memulihkan semula syarikat penerangan itu.
Katanya, DAP tidak bersetuju dengan cadangan mengisytiharkan MAS muflis, kerana bukan sahaja memalukan tetapi memberi kesan buruk ke atas pekerja MAS.
Sehubungan itu, katanya, Khazanah mesti menyediakan satu pelan konkrit untuk menyelamatkan MAS, termasuk melaksanakan tender terbuka kompetitif yang menjadi amalan antarabangsa dan penilaian berasaskan prestasi untuk semua pekerja, termasuk pengurusan tertinggi.
Singapore Business Times sebelum ini mencadangkan MAS diistiharkan muflis bagi membantu MAS menyelesaikan masalah lebihan kakitangan dan kontrak perolehan berat sebelah dalam hak penyelenggaraan sehingga ke katering makanan.
"Walaupun dengan subsidi dan geran berpuluh bilion yang diberikan oleh pembayar cukai Malaysia, MAS menunjukkan bahawa syarikat tersebut tidak boleh bersaing dengan Air Asia, yang merupakan kejayaan luar biasa keusahawanan Malaysia .
"Biarpun tidak mendapat satu sen pun daripada pembayar cukai Malaysia. Tambahan pula, syarikat tambang murah baru Malindo Air hanya akan memburukkan lagi prestasi MAS," katanya. – 25 Februari, 2014.

Rick Santelli Rant: What Would We Do Without The Government?



Rick Santelli: We Would Be Way Better Off! The Problem Is The Government. They’re Not Here To Help… They’re Here To Make Healthcare More Expensive, College More Expensive… Everything They Touch Is More Expensive…

But then we fast forward a little to the real deal… 
Guest: Where would we be without the government?


Santelli: (begins)… We would be way better off! The problem is the government. They’re not here to help… They’re here to make healthcare more expensive, college more expensive… everything they touch is more expensive
and then it gets good…

Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/rick-santelli-we-would-be-way-better-off-the-problem-is-the-government-theyre-not-here-to-help-theyre-here-to-make-healthcare-more-expensive-college-more-expensive-everything-they-touch/#qQt82f5K020f7ygx.99

HSBC accused of 'soar-away boardroom greed' as it pays £2.3billion in bonuses and reveals plan to avoid EU cap on payouts

  • 2013 profits up 9% on previous year but rise was below expectations
  • Boss Stuart Gulliver's pay package rose from £7.5million to £8million
  • Bonus pool  up 6% in a year to £2.3billion, with 239 receiving £1million+
By Matt Chorley, Mailonline Political Editor and Jonathon Hopkins and James Salmon
Global banking giant HSBC was accused of 'soar-away boardroom greed' today as it revealed plans to swerve an EU cap on huge bonuses.
Bank boss Stuart Gulliver saw his own pay package jump to just over £8million, from £7.5million the year before, as the bonus pool across the bank jumped 6 per cent to £2.3billion.
The bank’s revelation that 239 staff received more than £1 million also risked stoking anger over bank bonuses.
HSBC caution: A 2013 profit increase of 9 per cent on a year earlier was well below City expectations and the lender also warned there could be greater volatility in emerging markets this year
HSBC caution: A 2013 profit increase of 9 per cent on a year earlier was well below City expectations and the lender also warned there could be greater volatility in emerging markets this year

The firm racked up pre-tax profits of £13.6billion for 2013, an increase of 9 per cent on a year earlier but well below City expectations, leading its shares to fall on the news.
The row over bankers' bonuses was reignited as HSBC unveiled details of new share windfalls for senior staff which will count as part of their fixed pay.
These lucrative quarterly payments will be made to 111 senior staff worldwide – 49 of them in the UK - whose huge annual bonuses fall would foul of new regulations from Brussels.
The EU wants to restrict banks to paying bonuses no more than one year’s annual salary, rising to twice salary if shareholders approve.
Banks have been formulating plans to dodge the cap, which they claim will cause them to lose staff to US and Asian rivals which do not have any pay restrictions.
The UK Treasury has also launched a legal challenge against the pay curbs.
Yesterday Gulliver, described the bonus cap as ‘unfortunate’ and confirmed it would be applying to shareholders for the higher limit of twice annual salary.
His own package jumped to just over £8million, confirming him as the highest paid bank boss in the UK, with bosses at Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland both waiving their bonuses for last year.
Cathy Jamieson, Labour's shadow Treasury minister, said: 'We're once again seeing bumper pay-outs with bonuses up this year at Lloyds, Barclays and now HSBC.
'The government should be repeating Labour's successful bank bonus tax this year. This could fund a paid job for every young person out of work for 12 months or more, which they would have to take up or lose benefits.'
TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady said the results were 'yet another example of soar-away boardroom greed'.
She added: 'It would be great if banks put the same effort into lending to small businesses and investing in infrastructure as they do to getting round EU rules on boardroom bonuses.'
HSBC said Mr Gulliver's base salary will remain at £1.25million for this year but that he will receive a fixed pay allowance of £1.7million, to be awarded in shares on a quarterly basis.
Mr Gulliver’s package will not be tied directly to performance and so would not count as a bonus under new European rules preventing bankers from being paid bonuses worth more than two times their salary.
HSBC boss: The bank's chief executive Stuart Gulliver saw his pay package jump to just over £8million for 2013, up from £7.5million the year before
HSBC boss: The bank's chief executive Stuart Gulliver saw his pay package jump to just over £8million for 2013, up from £7.5million the year before

The controversial new rules from Brussels came into effect in January, meaning that 2013 was the last year in which big bonuses could be paid.
Mr Gulliver's previous pay scheme offered an annual bonus worth up to three times his salary, plus a longer-term share award that pays out as much as six times salary.
The lender also warned there could be greater volatility in emerging markets this year as they adjust to changing economic circumstances, helping send its shares over 4 per cent lower in mid-morning trade, down 30.5p at 623.7p.
HSBC makes an estimated 90 per cent of its money outside Britain and has benefited from its exposure to emerging markets in Asia.
Keith Bowman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers said: ‘Against a backdrop of concern for slowing growth in the Emerging Markets, cautious near term management outlook comments have impacted.
‘The results were at the lower end of expectations, with difficulties in Latin America taking their toll. Furthermore, some management efficiency targets were missed, hit by ongoing UK customer redress, whilst management’s irritation with the UK’s banking levy looks to have been expressed.
On the upside, broad progress was made, with underlying pre-tax profit higher in three of its four global businesses. Costs continue to be cut and remain a firm focus, whilst expected long term trends, such as growing trade across the Emerging Markets, appears to support underlying management confidence.‘
The banking group, Europe’s biggest closed  20 non strategic businesses last year as part of a drive to cut overheads and simply  the business. It has also cut 41,000 staff over the last three years, with its global headcount falling to 254,000.
But efforts to streamline the business were offset last year by a spiralling bill for payment protection insurance and a big increase in the bank revenue.
The bank set aside an extra £450million in the final three months of the year to compensate customers mis-sold PPI, taking its total bill for the scandal so far to £1.9billion.
 
HSBC also confirmed today that the number of millionaires on its pay roll continues to climb. Some 239 HSBC staff received packages of £1million or more last year, up from 204 in 2012 and 192 in 2011.
Mr Gulliver took the helm in 2011 and has led an extensive overhaul of the business.The lender was among those that did not need a taxpayer-funded bailout in the banking crisis.
‘For now, and having entered the credit crisis in better shape than most rivals, the bank remains a core sector investment. A progressive dividend policy continues to be pursued, whilst the bank’s avoidance of government ownership leaves it free of a major distraction compared to some rivals. In all, and despite the worry of Emerging Market exposure, analyst opinion continues to denote a buy,’ Keith Bowman said.

What Is Happening In Ukraine Is Far More Important Than Most People Realize

By Michael Snyder

Violence During The Ukraine Revolution - Photo by Mstyslav Chernov
What the people of Ukraine are being put through is absolutely horrible.  They are caught in the middle of a massive tug of war between the East and the West, and they are paying a great price for it.  Ultimately, Ukraine will end up either being dominated by Russia (a bad outcome) or by the EU and the United States (another bad outcome).  Most Ukrainians just want to be free and want to be able to build a better future for themselves and their families, but it is extremely unlikely that they will be able to escape the specter of foreign domination.  Meanwhile, the violence in Ukraine is planting the seeds for a potentially much larger conflict down the road.  The days of “friendly relations” between the United States and Russia are now gone.  Russia is absolutely furious that the U.S. has fueled a violent revolution on its own border, and it is something that Russian officials will not forget for a very long time.  In return, U.S. officials are taking an increasingly harsh stance toward Russia.  In the end, the seeds that are being planted right now could ultimately blossom into a full-blown conflict between the superpowers in the years to come.
Let there be no mistake – the United States is heavily involved in what is going on in Ukraine.  Even the New York Times admits this.  And the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and the Assistant Secretary of State have been caught on tape discussing their next moves in getting a new government installed in Ukraine.
In addition, a number of non-governmental organizations inside the United States have allegedly been assisting and organizing the revolution in Ukraine for a long time.  At least a few of these organizations have ties to George Soros.  This is something that I discussed in a previous article.
Some of the “progressive” NGOs that have been accused of fueling the violent revolution in Ukraine include the National Endowment for Democracy, Freedom House, and the Open Society Foundations (formerly known as the Open Society Institute).
Please don’t misunderstand me.  I am not taking sides.  I am just pointing out that both sides in Ukraine are controlled.  If I was living in Ukraine, I would want both Russia and the United States to go away and leave Ukraine alone.
Instead, Ukraine is being used as a battleground to fight a proxy war between the East and the West.  Now that the opposition has gained the upper hand, it does not appear that Russian officials are in any mood to recognize the new “government”
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday said Russiahad grave doubts about the legitimacy of those in power in Ukraine following President Viktor Yanukovich’s ouster, saying their recognition by some states was an “aberration”.
Medvedev also stated that he has “big doubts about the legitimacy of a whole series of organs of power that are now functioning there.”
Last Friday, an agreement was signed by the two sides in Ukraine that was supposed to bring about a peaceful resolution to all of this.  But the revolutionaries reneged on the deal and toppled the government instead.  Needless to say, Russia was quite horrified by this
The Russian Foreign Ministry criticized the West for turning a blind eye to what Moscow described as the opposition reneging on its agreement signed Friday to form a unity government and aiming to “suppress dissent in various regions of Ukraine with dictatorial and, sometimes, even terrorist methods.”
So what does Russia plan to do?
That is the big question that everyone is asking.
They are not doing much of anything just yet.  But there have been rumors that we could potentially see some economic blowback
Russia and the Customs Union could temporarily limit increased-risk food imports from Ukraine, given fears of loose safety control, said Sergei Dankvert, head of the Russian veterinary and phytosanitary oversight service Rosselkhoznadzor.
“My Belarusian colleague and I are extremely concerned about the situation in Ukraine. We do not rule out that curbs could be introduced on the imports of products of high veterinary and phytosanitary risks from Ukraine,” Dankvert told Interfax after talks with his Belarusian counterpart Yury Pivovarchik in Bryansk, and telephone talks with Ukraine’s Deputy Agrarian Policy Minister Ivan Bisyuk.
Of course what the U.S. government is most concerned about is any military action that Russia might take.
National Security Adviser Susan Rice says that what has happened in Ukraine reflects “the will of the Ukrainian people and the interests of the United States and Europe” and that it would be a “grave mistake” for Russia to get militarily involved.
But whatever happens over the next few days, nobody should think that the Russians are simply going to abandon their interests in Ukraine.  Russia has a very important military base down in the Crimea, and the eastern half of the country is very pro-Russian.
So the struggle between East and West in Ukraine is likely to continue for quite some time to come.  The following is an excerpt from a recent WND article
The issue with Ukraine is whether it will join the E.U. or Putin’s Eurasian Union. The country is roughly divided on this issue between eastern and western Ukraine. The eastern portion wants to remain with Russia while the western side wants to move closer with the West.
In southern Ukraine, where the Crimea is located, Russian influence remains strong.
Because demonstrators who want to see Ukraine lean westward have become emboldened with their immediate success of ousting Yanukovich, it could make it more difficult for them to come to terms with any settlement agreement to reunify the country.
Moscow has a large naval military facility in Sevastopol in the Crimea and recently received a 25-year lease extension to 2042, with another five-year renewal option until 2047. In exchange, Ukraine received a multiyear discounted contract for much-needed natural gas.
And the pro-Russian eastern half of the country is actually the stronger of the two halves economically.  So this will likely complicate matters for the EU and the U.S. as they try to bring Ukraine into their sphere of influence…
Seven of Ukraine’s 10 largest private companies by revenue are either headquartered or maintain the majority of their operations in eastern Ukraine. These firms are owned by some of Ukraine’s wealthiest and most influential individuals. Three of these 10 corporations — mining and steel company Metinvest, energy firm DTEK and its subsidiary Donetskstal — are based in the eastern industrial city of Donetsk and are owned by Ukraine’s wealthiest man, Rinat Akhmetov. Interpipe, the company that controls 10 percent of the world market share of railway wheels and more than 11 percent of the world market share of manganese ferroalloys, is based in Dnipropetrovsk and belongs to businessman and politician Victor Pinchuk.
The country’s most important businessmen are embedded in the east, where their businesses make disproportionately high contributions to the Ukrainian economy and national budget.
In the end, this proxy war between the East and the West has left Ukraine with a collapsed economy and on the brink of civil war.
And what has happened in Ukraine has caused permanent damage in the relationship between the United States and Russia.
It won’t happen this month or even this year, but someday the U.S. may end up bitterly regretting antagonizing the Russian Bear.
At least that is what I think.
So what do you think?
Please feel free to share your thoughts by posting a comment below…
Ukraine 2014 - Photo by Mstyslav Chernov


Alasdair Macleod: The Gold Cartel Can No Longer Manage Their Retreat!


London Gold expert Alasdair Macleod joins the SD Weekly Metals & Markets this week as a special guest host, discussing:1. True Chinese gold demand in 2013 was a minimum of 2,800 tons- falsely reported by the bullion bank apologists at under 2,000 tons
2. Why a sudden shortage of physical gold in March-April of 2013 forced essentially a gold default by 2 Dutch banks
3. Bullion & Western Central banks are out of gold & near the end of the line- Macleod explains why the cartel can no longer manage their retreat: We’ve got a situation where the central bankers don’t have any idea how to get out of the situation they’ve created for themselves
4. Gold & silver close at their highs for the week- setting up a big rally next week?

South Carolina City Implements Law Requiring $120 Permit To Feed The Homeless

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
Gandhi famously noted that:
The greatness of a society and its moral progress can be judged by the way it treats its animals.
I would agree with that, as well as the obvious observation that a society’s greatness can also be judged by how it treats its most vulnerable members. This isn’t to romanticize homelessness or to condemn it. It is merely to note that the homeless are fellow human beings going through their own struggles and difficulties. You may not want to provide them food, but some people do, and there should never be an infringement upon such a basic human right as sharing food with someone who needs it.
Civil rights are often lost in societies by politicians scapegoating unpopular minorities. This happened with jews, gypsies, etc in Nazi Germany and we must be very careful the same does not happen here. One human being should be able to voluntarily give food to another in all cases, without exception. The concept of a permit needed that costs $120 per week is fascist, anti-human and downright evil.
From the Examiner:
Feeding the homeless is about to get harder as a new policy is set to begin this Saturday, Feb. 15, in Columbia, SC. Charities and non-profits well be required to pay a fee and obtain a permit 15 days in advance in order to feed the homeless in parks.

One impacted charity that was interviewed by theFree Times, Food Not Bombs, has been serving food to the homeless in Finlay Park every Sunday for 12 years. The group’s organizer, Judith Turnipseed, noted that the group has an impeccable track record and always tidies up after the meal. But with the new crackdown, Food Not Bombs will have to pay at least $120 per week for the right to feed the homeless.

Since the Columbia City Council approved its exile plan in August, the city has been trying to herd its homeless people to a shelter on the outskirts of town and keep them away from downtown. If charities continue to provide food in downtown parks, the thinking goes, it will allow homeless people to continue to live downtown, rather than being forced to leave.
Remember the famous warning:
First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out– Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out– Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out– Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me–and there was no one left to speak for me.

- Martin Niemöller (1892–1984)
This is how it always starts. It reminds me of the fact that debtors’ prisons are making a huge comeback in the U.S. It’s always easiest to pick on the weakest members of society, which is why we shouldn’t.
Full article here.

Money laundering & Bitcoin, Macroeconomics with Axel Merk

Our lead story: Money laundering in the age of Bitcoin. When the HSBC was found guilty in 2012 of laundering billions for terrorist organizations, no one spent time in jail. But Charlie Shrem, the CEO of BitInstant, was arrested by federal authorities last week for allegedly laundering more than $1 million worth of Bitcoin, and today he’s sitting in jail. Erin asks, “Does this make sense? ”Afterward, Axel Merk, the President and CIO of Merk Investments and manager of Merk Funds, joins us to talk about Europe, currencies and emerging markets. Merk argues that the weak euro helps German exports dramatically, despite having to prop up peripheral countries. He also explains why he thinks that currencies are the least volatile assets when compared to equities and bonds.Then, Polly Boiko reports on why so many houses sit empty on The Bishops Avenue, one of London’s most expensive streets. In the midst of a housing shortage in Britain, this has become a symbol for this brick-and-mortar crisis.This week’s best clips bring a range of opinions about growth, the Fed and inflation. Warren Mosler looks at how personal income growth has slipped and what effect that has on growth in general. David Stockman criticizes the money-printing policies of Larry Summers, and argues that the Fed needs to get out of financial markets. Finally, Keith McCullough tells us to get rid of your Keynesian economic textbook and gives us his view on inflation in the US economy.Finally, the Big Deal looks at the a string of recent suicides by financial professionals around the globe, and explores the possible reasons why financial professionals might take their lives. Erin sits down with “Breaking the Set” host Abby Martin to discuss.
Also check us out on Facebook — and feel free to ask us questions:
http://www.facebook.com/BoomBustRT

Silver in 2014, Still a Bull Market: David Morgan Interview


Jim Grant: Fed Making It Up As It Goes, Now Year 6 Of 'Monetary Improv'


Ukraine Hopes Russian Gas Price Won't Change – Report

Ukraine Hopes Russian Gas Price Won't Change – Report


MOSCOW, February 24 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine hopes that the price it pays for Russian natural gas will remain unchanged despite the ouster of pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s acting energy minister told Reuters on Monday.

Russia’s state gas giant Gazprom agreed with Ukraine’s Naftogaz in December to slash the price that Ukraine had paid since 2009 by about a third, from about $400 per 1,000 cubic meters to $268.50.

“We hope the price will be stable,” the news agency quoted acting Energy Minister Eduard Stavytsky as saying.

More than half of the 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas consumed by Ukraine each year comes from Russia, according to Reuters.

Stavytsky said in January that Ukraine would discontinue relatively small purchases of natural gas from Europe and instead only buy from Russia.

Ukraine is on the brink of economic collapse following Yanukovych’s ouster on Saturday and the prospect that Russia will renege on billions of dollars in promised loans to the cash-strapped country.

Ukraine’s interim finance minister said Monday that the country is seeking at least $35 billion in urgent aid from Western powers, including the EU and the United States.

Political unrest erupted in November when Yanukovych’s government indefinitely postponed the signing of free-trade and association deals with the European Union to instead focus on strengthening ties with Russia.

The street protests culminated in deadly clashes between police and protesters in Kiev last week in which nearly 100 people were killed, prompting deputies to vote to impeach Yanukovych over the weekend.

A new presidential election is scheduled for May 25.

Ukraine is a major re-exporter of Russian gas to Europe, and political wrangling between the former Soviet states has led to serious disruptions in supplies in the past, especially in January 2006 and January 2009 when deliveries were temporarily halted over payment disputes.

Fed transcripts from 2008 reveal inner workings as US teetered on the brink

Janet Yellen’s jokes pepper Federal Reserve members’ struggle to describe severity of financial crisis as it developed
US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives her first testimony to Congress.
US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen gives her first testimony to Congress. Photograph: Zhang Jun/Xinhua Press/Corbis
The Federal Reserve on Friday released transcripts of the meetings it held in 2008 as the central bank tackled the worst financial crisis in living memory and the US teetered on the edge of another Great Depression.
The transcripts of 14 scheduled and emergency policy meetings the Fed held cover only official meetings and not the countless telephone calls and unofficial gatherings of senior policy officials and financiers held during the crisis.
They give some of the clearest insight yet into how officials tackled the crisis. They also shine more light on the record and personality of Janet Yellen, then chair of the San Francisco Fed and now the first woman to lead the Federal Reserve, showing glimpses of humor.
Yellen has a reputation for calling the recession ahead of her peers – one that is borne out in the Fed’s documents. In a January 21 meeting she said “the risk of a severe recession and credit crisis is unacceptably high, and it is being clearly priced now into not only domestic but also global markets.”
On September 16, the day after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Yellen showed her lighter side as she gave evidence of an economic slowdown in San Francisco. “East Bay plastic surgeons and dentists note that patients are deferring elective procedures,” she said to laughter.
“Reservations are no longer necessary at many high-end restaurants. And the Silicon Valley country club, with a $250,000 entrance fee and seven- to eight-year waiting list, has seen the number of would-be new members shrink to a mere 13,” she said.
“Sales of cheap wine are soaring,” Yellen reported to the Fed on March 8, a week before Bear Stearns collapsed.
What is consistent in the transcripts is that the Fed appeared to be struggling to grasp the magnitude of the crisis that was unfolding. On 21 January 2008 – well before Bear Stearns and Lehman fell into trouble – Fed chairman Ben Bernanke admitted it had already misread the burgeoning financial crisis. “We were seriously behind the curve in terms of economic growth and the financial situation,” Bernanke told his fellow economists. Two months later, Bear Stearns was near to collapse and was forced to sell itself to JP Morgan in a government-brokered deal.
By March, Bernanke had concluded that significant action had to be taken. “We live in a very special time,” the Fed chairman told colleagues on a 10 March conference call. Bernanke went on to press for the Fed to approve his plans to act as a backstop for Wall Street.
By June, things had calmed down slightly, but a sense of menace lingered, particularly around Lehman Brothers, as Bernanke observed: “With respect to financial markets, I agree certainly that the crisis atmosphere that we saw in March has receded markedly, but I do not yet rule out the possibility of a systemic event. We saw in the inter-meeting period that we have considerable concerns about Lehman Brothers, for example.”
Another Fed official cited Lehman’s shaky health after the fall of Bear Stearns and said “the announcements about Lehman Brothers over the last month highlight that we’re not yet safe.”
Yet those concerns did not lead to action, and there is a sense from the conversations that Lehman had created its own problems, which the Fed felt no pressure to solve. In June, Timothy Geithner – then head of the powerful New York Federal Reserve – said he wouldn’t let the central bank’s emergency lending measures be judged by whether “they would save Lehman from itself.” Another Fed official noted Lehman’s shrinking ability to borrow money after the fall of Bear Stearns and observed: “It started to crack, but it never really shattered.”
Adding to the impression that the Fed believed it held the upper hand in discussion of the bailouts, one official observed that the Fed’s imprimatur was one of the few things providing credibility to the banking sector at the time. “We have considerable leverage over these institutions at this time.” Kevin Warsh wrote. “No matter what they and their lobbyists say, they want us to be their regulator more than they can possibly contain themselves – mostly for our credibility and mostly for our balance sheet.”
The transparency of the emergency measures also came up, as officials encouraged Bernanke to share the Fed’s thinking about potential bailouts with Congress and the Treasury.
“It is going to be a tough act because you don’t want to take anything off the table, but you want to keep a lot open and not show your hand … You are going to have to show some leg during that speech,” Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher encouraged Bernanke.
Yet, if anything, the Fed seemed to become more opaque, at least when it came to the biggest crisis it would yet face: Lehman Brothers. In the two Fed meetings in July and August – before Lehman Brothers failed in September – the transcripts showed that none of the Fed members mentioned the firm’s name even once.
Lehman’s collapse was greeted with little fanfare by the Fed officials. Two days after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, an event that triggered stock market crashes around the world, Bernanke told his colleagues: “I think that our policy is looking actually pretty good.
“Our quick move early this year [to cut interest rates], which was obviously very controversial and uncertain, was appropriate.”
As the crisis unfolded, Fed officials initially were more concerned about rising inflation than unemployment. The Fed decided to keep interest rates pat at 2%, not showing any action. In a debate about wording of the Fed’s statement, one of the governors, Kevin Warsh, explained the Fed’s decision to stand pat by telling his fellow officials: “I think the sentiment we are trying to suggest is watchful waiting. We are not indifferent, we are not clueless. We are paying attention, but we are not predisposed.”
Others actively argued against action. Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker, for instance, opposed intervention and said the fall of Lehman would have a “silver lining” in that other banks would read it as a decisive signal that the government would not intervene in a financial collapse.
“Overall, I don’t take what’s happened in the last few days as changing much,” Lacker said the day after Lehman filed for bankruptcy. The fall of Lehman, coming as a shock to the markets, later led several other banks to struggle, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Federal Reserve governor Elizabeth Duke summed up the situation it had to fix: the lack of participation of banks in the economy. “The banks feel as though they have done everything they can do in terms of capital management,” she said, noting that banks could not buy or sell stock in the markets. “The markets are fragile to dead. So what are they going to do? The only thing they can do is contract the balance sheet and not lend.” The Fed subsequently introduced a battery of stimulus measures convincing banks to lend.
However, once the scale of the event unfolding became clear, the transcripts show the Fed and Bernanke acting swiftly and decisively to contain it, despite some internal disagreement.
The documents show a Fed struggling to even over how to describe the meltdown as it took hold. At a meeting on March 18, Frederic Mishkin, an Federal open markets committee (FOMC) member, said: “I will not use ‘financial crisis’ in public. ‘Financial disruption’ is still a good phrase to use in public, but I really do think that this is a financial crisis. It is surely going to be called that in the next edition of my textbook.
Participant: When is it coming out?
Mishkin: Wouldn’t you like to know!
Mishkin also compared the FOMC to Monty Python’s Life of Brian where “they all on the cross, and they start singing ‘Look on the Bright Side of Life.’”
• This story will be updated as we work through the documents.

STOCK MARKET SURGES TO ALL-TIME HIGH WHILE THE ECONOMY IS FREEZING UP ! STOCKS SET FOR A BIG FALL?



S&P 500
Thinkorswim
 
Markets Are Still Loving The Economy’s Increasing Problems
The economic reports turn ever uglier, and the stock market loves it.
Something seems wrong with that picture.
In recent months, it has been the unexpected widening of the U.S. trade gap, as exports decline and imports rise. It has been unexpected plunges in retail sales, home sales, auto sales, durable goods orders, and factory orders. It has been downward revisions of previous reports for December.
This week’s reports have been more of the same.
The Empire State (NY) Mfg Index plunged from 12.5 in January to 4.5 in February, considerably worse than the consensus forecast of a weather-related decline to 9.0. The Fed’s Phila Mfg Index plunged from a positive reading of +9.4 in January to -6.3 in February. The consensus forecast was that it would decline due to weather but remain positive at +7.3. Its new-orders component, an indicator for future manufacturing, plunged from + 5.1 to -5.2.
From the important housing industry, this week’s reports were that the Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of national homebuilders, plunged from 56 in January to 46 in February, its lowest level in 9 months, more than 50% of homebuilders now pessimistic about the future. New housing starts plunged 16% in January and permits for future starts declined 5%. While weather was again blamed, housing starts in the weather-hammered northeast were actually up in January, and down sharply in the rest of the country, including the balmy south.
Friday’s report was that ‘existing home’ sales nationally fell 5.1% in January, as sales continue the downtrend that began last May when mortgage rates began to rise. Sales fell 7.3% in Western states, the region less affected by winter storms, a significantly larger decline than in the Northeast and Midwest. Meanwhile, mortgage rates rose again last week, the 30-year mortgage rate, at 4.33%, now 21% higher than a year ago.
Wall Street firms and major banks continue to slash their forecasts for the economy quite dramatically, not only for this quarter, but also for the fourth quarter of last year.
MISS: DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING FALLS TO 0.3 (3.0 estimated)
The Dallas Fed says its manufacturing survey came in at 0.3.
Expectations were for a reading of 3.0 against 3.8 prior.
Dallas Fed Misses; Dumps To 9-Month Low, Harsh Texas Weather Blamed
U.S. Markit services gauge hits four-month low
World’s biggest companies pay out $1 trillion in dividends
Dividend pay-outs from companies in emerging markets have doubled between 2009 and 2011, but growth in the region has since “slowed to a crawl” as the commodity cycle ended and currencies fell.
Stocks set for a big fall, thanks to the Fed: Grant











 
Besides artificially increases stocks, Grant said that Fed intervention has been counterproductive to economic growth. “We have been living through a very persuasive demonstration of futility of intervention to solve a recession.”“It is now year six of this ‘monetary improv’ … [and] we’re making it up as we go along,” he added.Using a baseball metaphor, Grant said: “We don’t know exactly day-to-day where the strike zone is … how many strikes you get … nor what the distance is from home plate to first.”“Sometimes they change the rules after the game is over,” he added.

Monetarism, Abenomics, QE, and Minimum Wage Proposals: One Bad Idea Leads to Another, and Another

Telegraph writer Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is back at it. In arguably his worst article ever, Pritchard complains France is Looking Straight Down the Barrel of a Deflation Shock.
Coffee prices have gone parabolic
Inequality worse now than on ‘Downton Abbey’
Welcome to “Downton Abbey America”
U.S. economic performance goes from bad to worse in January
Looking for some good economic news today? Then you’ve come to the wrong blog.
Data released Monday morning signaled that an underperforming U.S. economy got worse in January, hit by production-related weakness.

Affluenza Teen Dodges Jail Time Again


Maybe money can’t buy happiness, but it can sure buy a person a get-out-of-jail-free card.
You may recall the outrage back in December when the term “affluenza” was used by the defense during the case of a Texas teenager who, according to the courts, couldn’t be held accountable for his deadly actions because he was just too darned rich. Then 16 year-old, Ethan Couch, from a wealthy Texas family, was driving drunk when he crashed into four people standing at the side of the road with a disabled vehicle. Four of his own passengers were thrown from the vehicle, one of whom suffered a brain injury and can no longer move or speak.
Three hours after the accident, the boy’s blood alcohol level was .24 – more than triple the legal limit – and there were traces of Valium in his system. In other words, he was so drunk and high, it was a wonder he could even stand up.
Despite the fact that Couch pleaded guilty to drunk driving and manslaughter, he received no jail time. Instead, the boy was sent to a posh rehab center to ride horses, lift weights, and swim while he was being “rehabilitated” under the terms of a 10 year probationary period.
The families of the victims were justifiably irate.
This week, sentencing (if you want to call it that) occurred for the additional charges filed against Couch. Prosecutors asked for a 20 year sentence for the two intoxication assault charges for Sergio Molina and Solaiman Mohman, the boys who were riding in the truck bed at the time of the crash. Molina was so severely injured that he can only communicate by blinking and smiling, and Mohman suffered broken bones and internal injuries.
The families were left angry and disappointed again when State District Judge Jean Boyd made a mockery of the term “justice” yet again, after being sure to clear the court of media.
Before the hearing, Boyd ordered everyone except the immediate families of Couch and his victims to leave the courtroom. Attorneys representing the Star-Telegram and five other media outlets had asked her to let them make a case to stay in the courtroom before closing proceedings regarding Couch. On Tuesday, Boyd denied that request without explanation.
She ordered Couch, 16, to enter a “lock down” addiction treatment facility and to not drive or use alcohol or drugs for 10 years, according to a news release from the Tarrant County district attorney’s office. She ordered his parents to pay for his treatment.
Boyd’s probation conditions set no minimum time that Couch must stay in rehab…
When Couch completes treatment, which will be determined by the court and the professional staff at the facility, he will be released under the other terms of his probation. (source)
Here’s a photo of the very disappointing Judge Boyd.
APphoto_Texas Deadly Wreck
Prosecutors for the case were stunned and disappointed at this second travesty of justice. Prosecutor Richard Alpert said:
“This has been a very frustrating experience for me. I’m used to a system where the victims have a voice and their needs are strongly considered. The way the system down here is currently handled, the way the law is, almost all the focus is on the offender.” (source)
Just a quick reminder, lest it sound as though Couch will be locked up in this rehab facility for an extended period of time, it’s important to note that the “judge” did not set a minimum amount of time he must be there. As soon as the experts at the facility say he’s rehabilitated, he’s good to go. Then under the terms of his probation, he is not allowed to consume alcohol or drive a vehicle for the next 10 years.
Asking Boyd to give Couch jail time for intoxication assault was a last-ditch effort by prosecutors, who have said they have almost no way to appeal the judge’s sentence in the case.
Alpert said he hoped the Couch case would lead the Texas Legislature to allow juries to sentence some juvenile defendants. The case has already spurred calls for potential changes. Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who serves as president of the Senate, has asked for a study of sentencing guidelines in intoxication manslaughter cases. (source)
The only hope for any type of justice whatsoever now rests in the hands of civil courts, which we must hope are less swayed by the “poor little rich boy” defense than Judge Jean Boyd.
Six civil lawsuits that have been filed against Couch, his parents, Fred and Tonya Couch, and the family’s company, Cleburne Metal Works, have been consolidated and transferred into 96th state District Court, presided over by Judge R. H. Wallace. (source)
Hopefully, the lawsuits will be decided in such a manner that the Couch family never ever has to worry about being considered “too rich” again. Perhaps true justice would not be incarceration, but impoverishment.
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10 Stories From The Cold, Hard Streets Of America That Will Break Your Heart




Depressed-Photo-by-Sander-van-der-Wel-300x300
If the economy is really “getting better”, then why have millions upon millions of formerly middle class Americans been pushed to the point of utter despair?  The stories that you are about to read are absolutely heartbreaking.  I don’t know how anyone can read them without getting chills.  In America today, if you lose a good job, there is a good chance that you will get back on your feet before too long.  But there is also a good chance that you won’t be able to find a decent job and will plunge into the abyss of depression and desperation that so many millions of other Americans have fallen into.  As I wrote about earlier this month, the U.S. economy is definitely not getting any better.  For example, if you assume that the percentage of Americans that want to work is about at the long term average, then the official unemployment rate in the United States would be above 11 percent.  And compared to six years ago, 1,154,000 fewer Americans are working today even though our population has gotten significantly larger since then.  Behind all of these numbers are real flesh and blood people, and you are about to hear from some of them.  The following are 10 stories from the cold, hard streets of America that will break your heart…
#1 A 34-year-old man named Rocco
“While my wife goes to work, I’ve been staying at home to conserve fuel. I’ve been losing weight from eating less, so my family has more on their plates. It feels like the government and big business expect more and more while trying to give back as little as possible. Soon my internet connection will be shut off and since most companies don’t offer paper applications, how will I find work then? Walking around for miles a day, asking for an application that may or may not be available?”
#2 Homeless people wasting away in “Obamavilles” on the outskirts of Baltimore, Maryland…
A sheet of plastic laid over a clothesline. A mini-fortress of milk crates stacked under a tree. A thin mattress on a flimsy crate lying in a dark tunnel.
On the edge of Baltimore’s woodlands, dozens of the city’s transients live in makeshift homes which they consider safer than homeless shelters.
You can see some incredible photos of how these homeless people are living right here.
#3 A 50-year-old woman in Pennsylvania named Karen
“My husband only makes 10 dollars an hour and drives 30 miles round trip, so it’s taking all we have just to keep the Jeep filled with gas. We stopped going to church and all to save gas. We are homebodies now, afraid to use what gas we have. We save two kids from getting put in foster care just to be hit like this. It’s just a constant trap they try to keep you from receiving any help! I’m so disgusted when my 12-year-old asks me why we don’t have snacks anymore, or why are we eating so much rice, etc.”
#4 The following is an excerpt from a comment that was recently left by one of my readers
“I live right at ground zero. South West Virginia and let me tell you things are bad and getting worse by the day. We don’t do drugs but have family members hooked on meth and or pills or both. Many of these pills are prescribed by local doctors either Suboxone to get you off the opiates, a total joke by the way and tons of Xanax why would anyone need 120 Xanax a month how can you even be expected to function. These pills get traded for cash sex and other items, same goes for the SNAP cards. We have family members going to jail repeatedly for the same crimes making meth, selling pills and stealing anything that’s not nailed down. People who are 30 years old look like they are 55 years old. The jobs here are awful walmat, gas stations, fast food etc. Most of our whole county is on the government dole.”
#5 A 55-year-old man from California named Randy Carpadus
“I was working as a firefighter for the state of California and was laid off in April 2012, right at the beginning of fire season. At my age, I’m not going to be picked up by another fire department. They want younger guys.
I’ve applied for everything from truck driver, to sales, to nonprofit work. I’ve sent out almost 400 resumes, and I’ve gotten nothing. I’ve done whatever I could to make ends meet.
Through some connections, I got a temp job as a truck driver in Napa Valley — a 3-hour commute from where I live. I lived in my car and worked during grape harvest.”
#6 In this tough economic environment, debt collectors are becoming even more aggressive.  Just check out the kind of harassment that one woman named Jennifer Posey has been put through…
“This is Jimmy Lee calling from CheckCare. Just letting you know we’re in full force,” he said. The man had a thick Southern accent that stretched the word “you” into a two-syllable accusation. “We’re going to have warrants out for your arrest in Columbus, Ga.,” the man threatened. “We know you have an apartment on the canal in Clearwater.”
It was when he mentioned her home in Florida that Posey began to feel anxious. “We’re hurting you,” he continued. “We’re hurting your family, your son’s family, your cousin’s family. Whatever we can do to get you to pay.”
Forty minutes later, her phone rang again. “What about that 12-, 13-year-old child you’re trying to raise?” the voice sneered.
#7 A 50-year-old woman from New York named Sharon Ritchie
“I am constantly told I am ‘overqualified.’ I’ve also been told to dumb down my resume, but I can’t just erase 30 years of experience.
You can only stand the word ‘no’ so many times. There are times that I cry at night wondering what happened, and at times I have thought about suicide.
But, I keep on going, hoping the cycle will break.”
#8 In response to my recent article about Appalachia, a reader named Rob shared the following…
“I am from rural south central KY (Brodhead, Rockcastle County) and I can tell you that most of the things described above are exactly how it is here. There are so many people on drugs it’s crazy. First it was the meth, which was more of a problem back in 2002-2007, then the pain pills really started becoming a huge problem, OxyContin and perc 30′s (roxicet) obtained from Florida and Georgia doctors. The pain pills are something that you can’t just walk away from after doing them for a while; they cause people to steal from family, sell everything they own, and/or prostitute themselves in order to avoid opiate withdrawal.”
#9 A 30-year-old man from California named Alejandro
“I need to provide for my son who is diagnosed with autism and my baby girl. I’ve sold a bunch of my belongings to try and put food on the table, to buy clothes for my kids, to pay rent and utilities and to put gas in my vehicle to go job hunting. Not having money for necessities takes a toll on my mind. Depression has kicked in. It really takes a toll on one’s self-esteem and confidence to move forward.I’ve applied to countless amounts of jobs, only to not even get a call back. I’ve gone from construction site to construction site, only to be told they are not hiring. Finally, I got at least a positive call back from a company telling me they will call me to work in a couple of weeks. I am crossing my fingers and praying. There are millions of people in my situation or even worse.”
#10 An excerpt from a heartbreaking letter that an unemployed woman named Paula Bray sent to Barack Obama…
Dear Mr. President,
I write to you today because I have nowhere else to turn. I lost my full time job in September 2012. I have only been able to find part-time employment — 16 hours each week at $12 per hour — but I don’t work that every week. For the month of December, my net pay was $365. My husband and I now live in an RV at a campground because of my job loss. Our monthly rent is $455 and that doesn’t include utilities. We were given this 27-ft. 1983 RV when I lost my job.
This is America today. We have no running water; we use a hose to fill jugs. We have no shower but the campground does. We have a toilet but it only works when the sewer line doesn’t freeze — if it freezes, we use the campground’s restrooms. At night, in my bed, when it’s cold out, my blanket can freeze to the wall of the RV. We don’t have a stove or an oven, just a microwave, so regular-food cooking is out. Recently we found a small toaster oven on sale so we can bake a little now because eating only microwaved food just wasn’t working for us. We don’t have a refrigerator, just an icebox (a block of ice cost about $1.89). It keeps things relatively cold. If it’s freezing outside, we just put things on the picnic table.
Sadly, this is just the beginning.
The economic despair that we are witnessing right now is just a taste of the horrible economic nightmare that is going to unfold in the United States during the coming years.
And already there are signs that things are starting to take another turn for the worse.  In recent months, we have seen a whole host of retail chains announce store closings.  In fact, one of my readers wrote to me the other day and told me about a home appliance chain known as “American TV” that is going out of business in the Midwest.  When these stores shut down, close to another 1000 Americans will soon be out of work
“While this is a sad moment it is also a proud moment. It’s a moment to be proud of our efforts and to be proud of what we have delivered to the community”, said Doug Reuhl, President and CEO of American since 1988. “Words cannot adequately express how grateful we are to our millions of loyal customers, and to the incredible, dedicated family of employees that we have been blessed with over our 60 years of business”. Advanced notice of the business closing has been given to the 989 employees affected in eleven locations. Employees will be compensated, with benefits, through the notification period, and the majority will continue employment through the closing process.
But if you listen to the mainstream media, you would think that happy days are here again for America.  Just check out some of the bizarre headlines that I have collected in recent weeks…
CNBC: “Stop whining! The US economy is in good shape
USA Today: “Economists: U.S. will see better growth in ’14
Newsday: “Why the economy isn’t doomed
Most Americans will buy into this propaganda and will never see the next major economic crisis coming until it is too late to do anything about it.
So what do you think about all of this?
Do you have a personal story to share?
Delivered by The Daily Sheeple

U.S. economic performance goes from bad to worse in January

Looking for some good economic news today? Then you’ve come to the wrong blog.
Data released Monday morning signaled that an underperforming U.S. economy got worse in January, hit by production-related weakness.
According to a gauge of the national economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, activity in January posted below-average growth for a second month, hitting negative 0.39, the lowest result in six months. The gauge takes 85 economic indicators into account, covering areas such as production, jobs and consumer spending. Negative values signal a below-average rate of economic growth, a zero reading means that the economy is growing at its historical trend rate, and positive values signal faster-than-average growth.
While the monthly data can be volatile, a trend for the Chicago Fed’s gauge also shows weakening. The three-month moving average was 0.1 in January, the lowest result in four months. But don’t worry about a contracting economy yet. The average in January was above a key reading of negative 0.7. Once the average drops below negative 0.7 following a period of growth, then the chances are higher that a recession has started, according to the Chicago Fed.
News of a faltering economy will sound familiar to those who followed reports in recent weeks that signaled a sputtering housing market, and weakness for retail sales and manufacturing. Elsewhere Monday, a February gauge of the U.S. service sector hit the lowest level in four months, with slower growth for jobs.
An unusually tough winter may be behind some of the recent economic weakness, but there could be other factors as well. Take the housing market, for example, which has also faced new mortgage rules, weak jobs growth and dropping affordability.
But there may be a silver lining for those feeling overwhelmed by a flurry of weak reports: Chunks of activity delayed by the cold weather could show up in coming months. Indeed, a recent report forecasting national growth indicated that the economy may be resilient in early 2014.
–Ruth Mantell

Global Debt Bomb: From TNT now to Nuclear | McAlvany Commentary

This week:
-Gold up 9%, Silver up 12%, Gold Stock up 23% YTD
-U.S. destabilizing along with the rest of the world
-Trophy Headquarters portend a top in tech 
http://mcalvany.com
1-800-525-9556? First High Quality Gold Hoard In Over A Decade: Interview with Drew Crowell
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoLd2a
 ? Getting Away with Spending 4 times what You Make!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkvCFv… 
? 3 Canaries in a Coal Mine:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvVK04… 
? Does Money Grow on Trees?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ogrwd7… 
?2014: Year of Unintended Consequences
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BosC_X…

Europe Factors to Watch-Shares to drop after Chinese data


Gold Price Rigging Fears Put Investors On Alert

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,333.00, EUR 968.54 and GBP 800.46 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,320.75, EUR 963.63 and GBP 792.20 per ounce.
Gold fell $0.20 or 0.02% Friday to $1,323.50/oz. Silver lost $0.02 or 0.09% at $21.81/oz.
Gold and silver were both up for the week at 0.37% and 1.68%.
Gold has risen 0.8% in London and reached $1,334.60/oz, its highest level since October 31. After last years 28% decline, gold is now 11% higher this year.
Gold in U.S. Dollars, 5 Year – (Bloomberg)
Gold may post its fourth week of gains as concern of prolonged political unrest in Ukraine raises fears of a sovereign default and contagion. This is adding to safe haven demand for gold – particularly in Eastern Europe and Russia.
A breakthrough peace deal for Ukraine has halted days of violence and may bring  sweeping political change, meeting many of the demands of the pro-European opposition. However, there are considerable financial and economic challenges facing Ukrainian banks, the Ukrainian pension system and the wider economy. There remains the risk of a default that could lead to contagion.
Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,325.10 an ounce at 2:23 p.m. in Singapore from $1,324.28 on February 21, when prices capped a third weekly gain.
The Financial Times reports this morning that global gold prices may have been manipulated on 50% of occasions between January 2010 and December 2013, according to analysis by Fideres, a consultancy.
The findings come amid a probe by German and UK regulators into alleged manipulation of the gold price. Prices are set twice a day by Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Barclays, Bank of Nova Scotia, and Societe Generale in a process known as the London gold fixing.
Fideres’ research found the gold price frequently climbs, or falls, once a twice-daily conference call between the five banks begins, peaks or troughs, almost exactly as the call ends, and then experiences a sharp reversal, a pattern it alleged may be evidence of “collusive behavior.”
Fideres concluded that this “is indicative of panel banks’ pushing the gold price upwards on the basis of a strategy that was likely predetermined before the start of the call in order to benefit their existing positions or pending orders.”
“The behavior of the gold price is very suspicious in 50% of cases. This is not something you would expect to see if you take into account normal market factors,” said Alberto Thomas, a partner at Fideres.
Pension funds, hedge funds, commodity trading advisers and futures traders are most likely to have suffered losses as a result, according to Mr Thomas. He said that many of these groups were “definitely ready” to file lawsuits.
Daniel Brockett, a partner at law firm Quinn Emanuel, also said he had spoken to several investors concerned about potential losses.
Matt Johnson, head of distribution at ETF Securities, one of the largest providers of exchange-traded products, said that if gold price collusion is proven, “investors in products with an expiry price based around the fixing could have been badly impacted.”
Gregory Asciolla, a partner at Labaton Sucharow, a U.S. law firm, added: “There are certainly good reasons for investors to be concerned. They are paying close attention to this and if the investigations go somewhere, it would not surprise me if there were lawsuits filed around the world.”
All five banks declined to comment on the findings, which come amid growing regulatory scrutiny of gold and precious metal benchmarks.
BaFin, the German regulator, has launched an investigation into gold-price manipulation and demanded documents from Deutsche Bank. The bank last month decided to end its role in gold and silver pricing. The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority is also examining how the price of gold and other precious metals is set as part of a wider probe into benchmark manipulation following finding of wrongdoing with respect to LIBOR and similar allegations with respect the foreign exchange market.
The Financial Times article, ‘Gold price rigging fears put investors on alert’,can not be accessed this morning, but the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (GATA) covered the Financial Times story in their dispatches and it can be read here.
The 7 Key Allocated Gold Storage Must Haves
1. Ability to take delivery: Ensure that can you take delivery of your bullion when you want and where you want2. Bullion authenticity: Ensure your gold bullion is produced and stored within the LBMA chain of integrity3. Gold bullion audits: Ensure your bullion is audited daily, and annually by internationally recognised auditors4. On-Line storage inventory: Ensure that you can log-on to view your bullion item description for bars or coins, quantity, gross weight, fineness and item value5. Being able to visit and view holdings: Ensure that you can arrange to visit and view your physical gold coins and bars6. Insurance of bullion at storage facilities: Ensure that your bullion provider and its storage partners have adequate insurance cover7. Guarantee of bailment: Ensure that the legal ownership of the bullion remains with you
Owning gold directly and in a fully allocated and fully segregated account remains vital.