Brian Sylvester of
The Gold Report (7/15/13)
Now is the time to be brave, to buy when everyone else is selling,
advises Stephan Bogner, analyst with Rockstone Research and CEO of
bullion dealer Elementum International. Content to go against the grain,
Bogner believes investors should be 100% invested in precious metals,
both in physical metals and equities. He is interested not only in
companies that are profitable now but also in ones that will someday be
in the black again. In this interview with
The Gold Report, he describes his ideal portfolio, which includes companies operating in far-flung places.
The Gold Report: You are more bullish on gold and
silver now than when the bull market started in precious metals nearly
13 years ago. Yet Swiss bank UBS says the commodities super cycle is
over.
Stephan Bogner: I was pretty bullish on gold and silver in
2002 when I completed my university diploma thesis on the exotic topic
“Gold in a Macroeconomic Context.” I’m even more bullish today because
the macroeconomics did not change; it got worse.
The fundamentals for gold and silver have never been as bullish as
they are today. Money is much more likely to flow into the sector, as
there’s no other place to hide from the increasing uncertainty and
excesses of our financial and economic system. The recent crisis in
Cyprus has shown that money in a bank account is not safe anymore and
yet this does not even take inflation into account.
TGR: Have gold bulls like yourself underestimated the ability
of the world’s largest banks and most powerful governments to control
the gold price?
SB: Gold and silver are the only barometers of the health of
our monetary system. Those who want to maintain the current system may
try to manipulate the barometers so that the masses misinterpret the
situation as long as possible. But prices will not remain low for long;
the fundamentals of supply and demand will cause them to appreciate.
Professor Dr. Hans Bocker, my diploma thesis supervisor and a renowned
economics expert in Europe, emphasizes that nothing and no one are
stronger than the market.
TGR: How should investors break down their portfolios for this new world order?
SB: Liquidate all available assets and move at least 70% out
of the banking system by purchasing physical gold and silver bullion and
storing it in an independent vault within a free zone of a safe
country.
I do not recommend that anyone buy paper gold and silver in the form
of certificates, options or futures. These are the most dangerous
markets and the most manipulated. This includes exchange-traded funds
(ETFs). You can’t be certain that they are really buying physical gold
and silver with all the money you put into ETFs or that you will get the
physical bullion when you want to sell. Professor Bocker, who is also
the chairman of Elementum, emphasizes that it’s crucial to physically
hold bullion in order to survive the upcoming financial crisis.
Mining equities fit very well into a portfolio consisting of physical
bullion. You can pour some 70% of your funds into bullion as a crucial
life insurance or security deposit and invest 30% of your total assets
in mining equities, vehicles that typically generate exorbitant profits
during a bull market in gold and silver.
TGR: What about cash? That leaves you with almost no liquidity in your portfolio.
SB: I consider investments in mining equities as cash
equivalents. You can sell part of your holdings anytime and use that
cash immediately.
TGR: Doesn’t the size of the precious metals equities market make it difficult to get in and out and reduce the market’s liquidity?
SB: You should diversify and focus on stocks that are liquid
so you can get out quickly without much “noise.” Have a healthy
diversification between junior and senior mining stocks and trade
frequently within your core portfolio.
TGR: What are the basics of your thesis for precious metals equities?
SB: At Rockstone Research I not only analyze the general
markets, I analyze junior and senior mining stocks. Mining provides
unique possibilities for great profits. If you know a bit about geology,
chemistry, metallurgy, technology and the general mining business, you
can identify mining stocks on the verge of rising, regardless of the
underlying metal prices.
The share price for a small exploration company with great drill
results will rise even if gold is in a bear market. Keep in mind that
increasingly fewer stocks will appreciate through the next collective
upswing; many projects and management teams have not proven to be
viable. These companies will go out of business and make the market a
better, more consolidated place than it was during the last decade.
From an investor perspective, you can view the current temporary bear
market as a good thing because only the best companies will survive.
Finding these companies before other investors find them can be the
chance of a lifetime. Now is the time to start buying mining equities
when they are heavily discounted and priced down. Take all your courage,
go out there and buy when everyone else is selling as if there was no
tomorrow.
TGR: What do you think is an effective approach to buying these equities? Should investors buy on drops and pullbacks?
SB: Yes, buying on dips and pullbacks is a good way to get
into an investment. If you are in the red with an investment, you can
either try to be patient and wait for a general recovery or you can sell
and buy different mining stocks now because the market has changed
severely in the last seven months. It has created ridiculously low
valuations of certain mining stocks that I would not have bought seven
months ago. I am no fan of strict “buy and hold” approaches as whole
markets, expectations and single opportunities change over time. Selling
some positions even with a loss to buy others that appear to be much
more of a bargain can be very lucrative.
TGR: What stories are you following?
SB: In a depressed mining market such as today’s with low
metals prices and most producers operating unprofitably, investors
already, and will increasingly, favor not only the few profitable mining
companies that are left but also mining equities with the following six
characteristics: 1) have experienced management, 2) are cashed-up, 3)
have an advanced-stage exploration and/or mine development project, 4)
have low capital expenditures (capex) to achieve high internal rates of
return, 5) have high-grade deposits, 6) are operating in a stable mining
jurisdiction.
Miners that meet all these premises in an outstanding way are
First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE),
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM:TSX.V; ASM:NYSE.MKT; GV6:FSE),
Great Panther Silver Ltd. (GPR:TSX; GPL:NYSE.MKT),
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM:NYSE; FVI:TSX; FVI:BVL; F4S:FSE),
Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW:TSX; SLW:NYSE),
SilverCrest Mines Inc. (SVL:TSX.V; SVLC:NYSE.MKT) and
Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSO:TSX; SSRI:NASDAQ).
They all are mining companies that are flexible enough in size,
operations design and corporate politics to steer through the extreme
market phases we are currently experiencing. These companies are
currently producing silver more or less profitably in resource-rich and
underexplored regions of Latin America, enjoying some of the lowest
production costs in the sector.
A Mexican silver producer that meets all of the above criteria, and
is a prime example of how to do it right in today’s difficult mining
environment, is
Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. (SCZ:TSX.V; 1SZ:FSE),
which has succeeded in bringing into production a mine during the
period of low metal prices in Q2/13. Average mill throughput currently
“only” stands at around 120 tonnes per day (120 tpd), ramping up to 200
tpd in Q4/13 and 500 tpd in 2014 to achieve an output of around 2
million ounces (2 Moz) silver equivalent per year. When Rosario starts
running at full capacity in 2014, silver prices may have recovered to
higher levels. This could provide huge leverage on the share price
because the company is currently producing relatively few ounces during
this period of low silver prices, an estimated 2013 output of around
400,000–500,000 ounces (400–500 Koz) silver equivalent. Normally, a
comparable 2 Moz per year silver mine requires $60–80 million ($60–80M)
capex, but Santacruz only spent $10M to construct Rosario, and Santacruz
is ready to do it again with its San Felipe project, for which a capex
of only around $20M is anticipated.
San Felipe will be at feasibility stage by late 2013; three rigs are
drilling as we speak. The initial drilling exceeds all expectations,
exhibiting higher grades than historic drill results and superb core
recoveries of around 95%, compared to historic records that show poor
core recoveries of around 70%. Santacruz is getting the picture now,
exploring and developing another world-class deposit that is easy to
mine and highly profitable even during these depressed times.
Imagine how such a business will do during high silver prices and
then try to imagine how the share price will develop from its current
low levels. For the upcoming weeks and months, we anticipate an
increased newsflow on San Felipe: the reporting of assays from around
10,000 meters (10,000m) of drilling. We expect San Felipe to start
production in 2014, and it being much larger in scale than Rosario
because Santacruz plans a 700 tpd mill throughput for its second mine.
The third mine on Santacruz’s agenda is Gavilanes, which is even
higher grade than the average 200–250 grams/ton (200–250 g/t) silver at
Rosario and San Felipe. Gavilanes has a historic Inferred resource of
1.2 million tons ore averaging 420 g/t silver, representing some 15+ Moz
silver. However, this historic resource calculation is based only on
500m of the known 1,000m strike length of the single GSA vein that was
drilled for only 3,200m in 1990. Santacruz has already successfully
identified six other veins on Gavilanes with the Descubridora vein being
the most promising one right now.
I speculate that
Tahoe Resources Inc. (THO:TSX; TAHO:NYSE)
will also become an exciting story; its world-class Escobal deposit in
Guatemala is averaging around 490 g/t silver equivalent, resulting in
fantastic all-in production costs estimated to be below $15/oz. That is
quite remarkable considering that Hecla Mining Co. (HL:NYSE) is now
pretty much underwater at $26/oz and Pan American Silver Corp. (PAA:TSX;
PAAS:NASDAQ) at $22/oz. Santacruz is set to achieve all-in production
costs of an estimated $11/oz by 2014 with its Rosario mine, and its two
other silver deposits are ready to follow an even larger path into
highly profitable and low-risk silver mining. Cash is king, even more
notably in tough times, so I now look for newborn cash-flow machines
that are poised to grow big during the next few years as I bet on much
higher gold and silver prices.
While Santacruz, a profitable producer with huge growth potential,
has a current market cap of only $85M, there are also very attractive
undeveloped projects like those of
MAG Silver Corp. (MAG:TSX; MVG:NYSE).
The company has a market cap of only $350M but is sitting on a large,
100+ Moz high-grade silver deposit that may to turn out to become
Mexico’s largest silver mine. MAG Silver is also in great shape to put
into production other properties during the upcoming years. You want to
look out for companies that right now are successfully developing
world-class deposits; when production kicks off in a few years, metal
prices are expected to be much higher than today.
TGR: What other companies are you following?
SB: Other stocks that I like in this respect are
Roxgold Inc. (ROG:TSX.V) and
Orezone Gold Corporation (ORE:TSX),
with their high-grade and large gold deposits both located in Burkina
Faso, as well as ASX-listed Ampella Mining Ltd. (AMX;ASX), which has the
3+ Moz Batie West Gold deposit, Burkina Faso’s largest undeveloped gold
resource at a 1 g/t cut-off.
I also follow Central African low-cost gold producer
Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV:TSX; EVR:ASX) in Ghana and ASX-listed
Tiger Resources Ltd. (TGS:TSX; TGS:ASX),
which has an excellent exploration and production portfolio of
properties strategically located on the world-renowned Katanga Copper
Belt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Tiger is a well-run
company with experienced and well-connected management successful in the
highly lucrative but somewhat risky-appearing regions of the world
where others fail on a regular basis. Tiger’s Kipoi stockpiles of
high-grade copper have a market value of $500M+ with production costs in
the area of only $0.30/pound targeted for 2014; the company’s other
properties enjoy extremely good exploration potential.
Alacer Gold Corp. (ASR:TSX: AQG:ASX),
with its gold operation in Turkey, is also an interesting story to
follow. Management is working successfully on cutting costs on all
fronts.
I am certain that these companies will not only survive the current
slaughtering of mining equities but will also evolve into better and
much more profitable companies than they would have been without this
crash, thus maximizing shareholder value even more if metal prices
recover substantially.
I also like
Levon Resources Ltd. (LVN:TSX.V; L09:FSE; LVNVF:OTC), with its 400+ Moz Cordero silver deposit in Mexico;
Silver Bull Resources Inc. (SVB:TSX; SVBL:NYSE.MKT) and
Golden Arrow Resources Corp. (GRG:TSX.V; GAC:FSE; GARWF:OTCPK), with their 100+ Moz silver equivalent deposits;
NOVAGOLD (NG:TSX; NG:NYSE.MKT), with its 40+ Moz Donlin gold deposit in Alaska;
Prophecy Platinum Corp. (NKL:TSX.V; PNIKF:OTCPK; P94P:FSE), with its multimillion ounce platinum group metals deposit in the Yukon; and
Western Potash Corp. (WPX:TSX.V), with Milestone being developed into a modern, cost-effective mine in Saskatchewan.
I also follow closely with great interest the development of
Sunridge Gold Corp. (SGC:TSX.V),
Sulliden Gold Corp. (SUE:TSX; SDDDF:OTCQX; SUE:BVL),
Aurcana Corporation (AUN:TSX.V; AUNFF:OTCQX) and
IMPACT Silver Corp. (IPT:TSX.V), and prospective juniors like
Vendome Resources Corp. (VDR:TSX.V),
Meadow Bay Gold Corp. (MAY:TSX.V; MAYGF:OTCQX),
La Ronge Gold Corp. (LAR:TSX.V) and
Comstock Metals Ltd. (CSL:TSX.V).
Comstock recently made a promising discovery in the prolific White
Gold district in the Yukon. The area has very similar geology and
mineralization with Kinross Gold Corp.’s (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE) Golden Saddle
deposit, which is just 10 kilometers (10km) to the northwest, as well
with Kaminak Gold Corp.’s (KAM:TSX.V) Coffee project 40km to the south.
Comstock’s initial drill results of grades of 1+ g/t gold over 80m+
exceeded all expectations.
Comstock just announced the assays of two stepout drillings: Hole 12
returned 2.1 g/t gold over 36m starting right at surface at 9m depth
including an 11m interval averaging 3.2 g/t at 22m depth below surface.
Hole 11 returned 43m averaging 1.4 g/t gold including an 13m intercept
averaging 3.4 g/t. Both drill holes will increase the NI 43-101 resource
base significantly as the footprint of the VG Zone has now been
extended by some 350x350m, whereas the zone remains open in all
directions. The results of five other drill holes will be released
shortly.
I highly respect Comstock’s CEO, Rasool Mohammad, who is also the
driving force behind La Ronge. La Ronge is exploring its Preview SW
property in the prolific La Ronge Gold Belt of Saskatchewan. With an NI
43-101 Indicated and Inferred gold resource of nearly 400 Koz with an
average grade of 2+ g/t and a 0.5 g/t cut-off, La Ronge is in a great
position to expand the resource base of this deposit in the upcoming
months. I am confident that Rasool will produce loads of positive drill
reports that I anticipate will affect both stocks greatly in the near
future.
TGR: Are there other companies you would like to talk about?
SB: Rubicon Minerals Corp. (RBY:NYSE.MKT; RMX:TSX)
has successfully developed the highly interesting 3+ Moz Phoenix gold
deposit toward the preliminary economic assessment level. The deposit is
located in Red Lake, Ontario. Production can commence as soon as 2014
or whenever the gold price has recovered.
Another advanced gold project in its final permitting stage is
Lydian International Ltd.’s (LYD:TSX)
flagship Amulsar gold deposit in Armenia. It looks remarkable: simple
and easy to mine, having a low capex of only $250M, yet valued at $1+
billion in the latest feasibility study.
Colossus Minerals Inc. (CSI:TSX; COLUF:OTCQX)
owns an advanced-stage gold project in Brazil that may go into
production at the right time within the next few years when metal prices
have recovered, making such a large gold deposit increase in value even
more.
Luna Gold Corp. (LGC:TSX)
also has a well-advanced deposit in Brazil with great NI 43-101 upside
potential targeting gold production starting at 125 Koz in 2014.
I follow
Brazil Resources Inc. (BRI:TSX.V; BRIZF:OTCQX) closely because I like the management team around Chairman Amir Adnani and his well-established contacts around the world.
TGR: Do you follow rare earths?
SB: Yes. I am positive that Australia-based
Alkane Resources Ltd. (ANLKY:OTCQX; ALK:ASX)
will bring into production its Dubbo rare earths project in New South
Wales in early 2016. Management is right on track demonstrating how to
successfully develop a large deposit into a profitable mine quickly,
namely with memorandums of understanding, agreements and strategic
alliances. Dubbo represents a world-class deposit enriched with
zirconium, hafnium, niobium, tantalum, yttrium, as well as light and
heavy rare earths elements (REEs). Chinese production dominates these
materials, providing over 90% of yearly supply and it is increasingly
limiting its exports. Alkane already seems to have found the right
partners to advance this project. The financing of around $1 billion is
planned to be arranged by Sumitomo Mitsui Bank of Japan, Credit Suisse
Australia and Sydney-based Petra Capital, and is expected to coincide
with the final project approvals, allowing mine construction to commence
in Q2/14.
Alkane’s Definite Feasibility Study of April 2013 shows Dubbo being a
“technically and financially robust project.” A base case of a 20-year
mine life gave a net present value of $1.23 billion, yet mine life is
likely to be in excess of 70 years, which makes this deposit an
important strategic asset for REE world supply. What makes Alkane a
great investment today is that shareholders do not have to wait two or
three years until REE production at Dubbo starts; shareholder value is
likely to be increased substantially within the next few months as
construction on the company’s Tomingley gold mine is underway and
commissioning is anticipated in late 2013. With a resource of 800+ Koz, a
head-grade of 2 g/t, a yearly gold production of around 50 Koz for a
minimum of eight years and operating costs at only $1,000/oz, this
project is set to generate important cash flow in the near future to
advance the Dubbo project successfully without the need for excessive
dilution.
Strategically, I also like
Rare Element Resources Ltd. (RES:TSX; REE:NYSE.MKT),
which has a 100% interest in the Bear Lodge property in Wyoming, U.S.
This is one of the largest disseminated REE deposits in North America;
it is high grade with favorable metallurgy and excellent infrastructure
within one of the world’s best mining jurisdictions. When the time is
right, it will most certainly be put into production.
Woulfe Mining Corp. (WOF:TSX.V)
owns a large tungsten-molybdenum deposit in South Korea; I like these
metals thanks to their great price appreciation potential in this
decade.
I also like companies such as
Rio Alto Mining Ltd. (RIO:TSX.V; RIO:BVL), whose stock experienced heavy selloffs during the last months, trading at around $2/share down from $6/share, and
Monument Mining Ltd. (MMY:TSX.V),
whose stock has been holding remarkably stable at the $0.30/share level
assuming that strong hands try to not let the price go below this
level. Both operators own world-class gold mines and infrastructure plus
offer great growth potential for the upcoming years.
Rio Alto is reporting higher than expected head grades, which is a
rare trend in today’s mining business—most seniors like BHP Billiton
Ltd. (BHP:NYSE; BHPLF:OTCPK), Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE) and
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE) are struggling as their grades decrease
more than expected and they are unable to keep up production levels
while costs rise. Their only chance of maintaining market value is to
acquire other resources, properties and companies. Rio Alto does not
have such problems and stands well even in today’s depressed markets,
thanks to the superb management around CEO Alex Black. The company has
developed the La Arena deposit in Peru into a world-class gold mine with
production costs well below $1,000/oz and an output of around 200
Koz/year. Rio Alto at $2/share seems like a great bargain and not only
for the short term.
Monument plans to bring into production a second, polymetallic mine
shortly, Mengapur, which I anticipate to emerge as a much larger than
expected mine that may be ramped up with a strategic partner. I hope the
partner is no one less than the government of Malaysia; management has
established respectable relationships with high-ranking officials over
the last years. A successful model would be Australia-based Tiger
Resources’ 60/40%-partnership with the DRC government.
Golden Arrow is another company with great management relationships
with governmental officials. Joe Grosso is doing it again big with this
latest Argentinian success story that may become in the foreseeable
future a very large and easily mineable resource of 100+ Moz silver
equivalent with outstanding NI 43-101 upgrade potential. That’s the sort
of junior mining stock with a $10–50M market cap that you want to be
involved with from an early stage.
TGR: Do you want to talk about any other companies?
SB: Another great management story may be
Gold Standard Ventures Corp. (GSV:TSX.V; GSV:NYSE), whose chief geologist, Dave Mathewson, explained to me in an
interview
in 2011 the background and geological settings of the Railroad
property. Railroad is located just south of the productive Rain mine
operated by Newmont in Nevada. Dave Mathewson discovered the Rain
deposit when working for Newmont. This is the kind of unique management
story that can be decisive when looking out for the right people who
made the right choices at the right time. I am optimistic that Railroad
eventually will turn out to be a larger gold deposit than Rain, which
itself contains 6+ Moz. No one knows the rich but tough Carlin Trend
better than Dave Mathewson.
Another deposit I value highly—in addition to being a potential takeover candidate—is
Gold Reach Resources Ltd. (GRV:TSX.V).
The company’s copper-gold-molybdenum deposit is adjacent to the
renowned Huckleberry copper-molybdenum mine in British Columbia.
Copper Mountain Mining Corp. (CUM:TSX)
restarted a large copper mine near Princeton, 250km northeast of
Vancouver, in 2011, producing some 80 million pounds per year.
Mitsubishi Materials Corp. (MMC:FSE) has a 25% stake and mining giants
like Xstrata Plc (XTA:LSE) are potentially looking for companies like
these to take over, especially during times of ridiculously low market
valuations that we have at the moment.
Some 3km south of the Copper Mountain mine and mill lies a large and quite prospective property that belongs to junior explorer
Anglo-Canadian Mining Corp. (URA:TSX.V).
I have been following this company for years, eagerly waiting to find
out that it is actually sitting on a mineable porphyry copper gold
deposit (or skarn) right on trend and right next to the prolific Copper
Mountain porphyry plug.
Another such small junior mining stock that we followed was Urastar
Gold Corp., which was active in Mexico where it held a highly
prospective property adjacent to mining, infrastructure and large
seniors. Urastar was acquired a few months ago by Agnico-Eagle Mines
Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE).
The following is mining news wording I believe we are about to see
increase notably with so many highly undervalued but highly prospective
junior mining stocks being acquired basically for peanuts. This is sad
but true in terms of shareholder value, yet still worth an investment
nonetheless if you discover the ones to target at the right time:
“Under the terms of the Agreement, each Urastar shareholder will
receive in exchange for each Urastar Share held, C$0.25 in cash. The
cash consideration offered represents a premium of approximately 42.9%
based on the closing price of the Urastar Shares on the TSX Venture
Exchange (“TSXV”) of C$0.175 on March 25, 2013 and a premium of
approximately 46.8% over the 20-day volume weighted average price of the
Urastar Shares on the TSXV for the period ending March 25, 2013. The
transaction value on a basic shares outstanding basis, and assuming
exercise of in-the-money share purchase warrants, is approximately
C$10.70 million.”
TGR: Thank you for speaking with us today.
Stephan Bogner
is a mining analyst at Rockstone Research, where he has independently
analyzed capital markets and resource stocks for more than 11 years. He
is also CEO of Elementum International AG of Switzerland. Bogner earned
his degree in economics in 2004 at the International School of
Management in Dortmund, Germany. He spent five years in Dubai brokering
and reselling physical commodities and now resides in Zurich,
Switzerland.
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DISCLOSURE:
1) Brian Sylvester conducted this interview for
The Gold Report and provides services to
The Gold Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of
The Gold Report:
Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd., Colossus Minerals Inc., Golden Arrow
Resources Corp., Gold Standard Ventures Corp., Sunridge Gold Corp.,
Rubicon Minerals Corp., MAG Silver Corp., Tahoe Resources Inc., Roxgold
Inc., Silver Bull Resources Inc. NOVAGOLD, Prophecy Platinum Corp.,
Sulliden Gold Corp., IMPACT Silver Corp., Lydian International Ltd.,
Brazil Resources Inc., Alkane Resources Ltd., Silver Standard Resources
Inc., Fortuna Silver Mines Inc., SilverCrest Mines Inc., Comstock Metals
Ltd. and Great Panther Silver Ltd. Streetwise Reports does not accept
stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.
3) Stephan Bogner: I or my family own shares of the following
companies mentioned in this interview: All except Credit Suisse,
Mitsubishi Materials Corp., Sumitomo Mitsui Bank of Japan, Xstrata Plc,
BHP Billiton Ltd., Barrick Gold Corp., Newmont Mining Corp., Hecla
Mining Corp. and Urastar Gold Corp. I personally am or my family is paid
by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My
company has a financial relationship with the following companies
mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports
for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are
my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the
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