Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Dow falls more than 200 points after Boston explosions
CNN Money
A sell-off in stocks accelerated Monday afternoon following the news of explosions at the Boston Marathon.
The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been in the red all day, fell 266 points, or 1.8%. About 120 points of that drop took place following the reports of the explosions in Boston.
The S&P 500 lost 2.3% and the Nasdaq slipped 2.4%.
CNN reported that two explosions were heard near the finish line of the Boston Marathon shortly before 3 p.m. Eastern. (Read CNN.com for the latest on the explosions.)
Earlier in the day, stocks had already slumped worldwide, gold prices plunged and investors flocked to lower risk assets like U.S. Treasuries. The initial sell-off began after investors awoke to news that China’s economic growth had slowed in the first quarter.
What happened in China? The Chinese economy grew 7.7% in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier. The report was “disappointing” and confirmed China’s recovery is fragile, said Qu Hongbin, HSBC’s co-head of Asian economic research.
Economists had been expecting the Chinese economy to grow 8%, and because it reflected weaker global demand for Chinese goods and services, the news also drove stocks in Asia and Europe lower.
The Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and Nikkei all dropped more than 1%. European markets took their cue from Asia, with London’s FTSE falling 0.6%.
China is the world’s second-largest economy after the United States, and is considered one of the top engines of global economic growth. Case in point: 7.7% growth per year is considered weak in China, while the U.S. economy would be lucky to grow around 3% annually.
A separate report also showed industrial production growth slowed sharply in China in March. Heavy manufacturing related to steel, power and telecommunications equipment showed the most weakness.
Gold bugs get zapped. Gold plunged more than 9% to settle at $1,361 an ounce and popular gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) fell 8.8%.
Mining stocks were hit hard, with Newmont Mining (NEM, Fortune 500), Rio Tinto(RIO), Freeport-McMoran Cooper and Gold (FCX, Fortune 500), and Rangold Resources (GOLD) each dropping more than 5%.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars both fell against the U.S. dollar following the weak Chinese data. Both countries rely heavily on China as an importer of their raw materials.
Investors also opted for the safety of the U.S. dollar against the euro and British pound. Demand for U.S. bonds rose, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid to 1.7%.
Bracing for barrage of bank and tech earnings. On the flipside, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) had some good news. The bank reported a better-than-expected 30% jump in net income, to $3.8 billion. Revenue also topped forecasts, rising 6% in the latest quarter.
Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) are on tap to report results later this week. Tech giants will also report results later this week, with Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500), Google(GOOG, Fortune 500) and Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500)all on deck.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/15/investing/stocks-markets/
A sell-off in stocks accelerated Monday afternoon following the news of explosions at the Boston Marathon.
The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been in the red all day, fell 266 points, or 1.8%. About 120 points of that drop took place following the reports of the explosions in Boston.
The S&P 500 lost 2.3% and the Nasdaq slipped 2.4%.
CNN reported that two explosions were heard near the finish line of the Boston Marathon shortly before 3 p.m. Eastern. (Read CNN.com for the latest on the explosions.)
Earlier in the day, stocks had already slumped worldwide, gold prices plunged and investors flocked to lower risk assets like U.S. Treasuries. The initial sell-off began after investors awoke to news that China’s economic growth had slowed in the first quarter.
What happened in China? The Chinese economy grew 7.7% in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier. The report was “disappointing” and confirmed China’s recovery is fragile, said Qu Hongbin, HSBC’s co-head of Asian economic research.
Economists had been expecting the Chinese economy to grow 8%, and because it reflected weaker global demand for Chinese goods and services, the news also drove stocks in Asia and Europe lower.
The Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and Nikkei all dropped more than 1%. European markets took their cue from Asia, with London’s FTSE falling 0.6%.
China is the world’s second-largest economy after the United States, and is considered one of the top engines of global economic growth. Case in point: 7.7% growth per year is considered weak in China, while the U.S. economy would be lucky to grow around 3% annually.
A separate report also showed industrial production growth slowed sharply in China in March. Heavy manufacturing related to steel, power and telecommunications equipment showed the most weakness.
Gold bugs get zapped. Gold plunged more than 9% to settle at $1,361 an ounce and popular gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) fell 8.8%.
Mining stocks were hit hard, with Newmont Mining (NEM, Fortune 500), Rio Tinto(RIO), Freeport-McMoran Cooper and Gold (FCX, Fortune 500), and Rangold Resources (GOLD) each dropping more than 5%.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars both fell against the U.S. dollar following the weak Chinese data. Both countries rely heavily on China as an importer of their raw materials.
Investors also opted for the safety of the U.S. dollar against the euro and British pound. Demand for U.S. bonds rose, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid to 1.7%.
Bracing for barrage of bank and tech earnings. On the flipside, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) had some good news. The bank reported a better-than-expected 30% jump in net income, to $3.8 billion. Revenue also topped forecasts, rising 6% in the latest quarter.
Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) are on tap to report results later this week. Tech giants will also report results later this week, with Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500), Google(GOOG, Fortune 500) and Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500)all on deck.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/15/investing/stocks-markets/
Flashback: Warning: “Watch The Metals, When They Dip. It Will Be A Good Indication That Things Are About To Happen.”
SHTF Plan – by Mac Slavo
As of this print the price of gold is reaching fresh two year lows, down nearly 25% from its all time high just six months ago. Though uninformed onlookers and financial pundits may see this as the popping of the proverbial gold bubble, the velocity and scale of the take-down in precious metals suggests that there is a massive assault in the works. According to former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts, last Friday’s price drop was the result of some 500 tons of gold being dumped onto paper markets, an amount equal to about $25 Billion dollars worth of the metal. Likewise, silver saw a similar dump and price drop. Moreover, the very same thing is taking place this morning, suggesting that some very large and influential market makers are involved.
Who has that kind of money and can afford to lose it in naked short positions? According to Paul Craig Roberts, “only a central bank that can print it.”
Thus, one must assume that this is not a natural effect of the free market, but rather, a coordinated attack on the global precious metals exchange orchestrated by our very own Federal Reserve, an organization run by a board of directors that includes representatives from some of the world’s largest banking institutions.
What’s most alarming about the collapse of gold and silver is that it was predicted in December of 2012 by a Department of Homeland Security Insider. In an interview with Doug Hagmann at the Northeast Intelligence Network, the insider warned that life for the average America would change drastically, and soon, and that this change would be preceded by various events, one of which is a major dip in precious metals:
To what end?
That remains to be seen, but if the US government’s war-gaming of economic collapse and civil unrest is any guide, we may be looking at the worst case scenario many have feared – an engineered collapse of our financial and economic systems leading to the centralization of control through implementation of martial law across America.
Sound far-fetched?
Perhaps. Unless of course you’re part of the Congressional membership that was explicitly warned of this very possibility at the height of the 2008 crisis:
Do you really think they saved the system back in 2008?
According to SGT Report, those involved in the take-down of gold and silver may not been done yet, as the unrelenting push against precious metals proves once again that the arrogance of criminal cartels behind global financial market manipulation continues.
We once opined that you should expect exactly such an event - a mega drop in precious metals – to take place and that you’ll hate your gold so much you’ll want to spit on it.
But consider that in the 1970′s, as gold assailed to its eventual all-time highs, it washalved in price at least once over the ten year period that it rose from double digits to over $800 per ounce.
During times of uncertainty, irrational events will occur. This is inevitable.
Don’t let the hype and manipulation change your long-term preparedness plans.
Consider what is money when the system as we know it collapses, and continue to acquire those hard assets that will retain value and barterability.
The worst is yet to come.
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/this-is-it-watch-the-metals-when-they-dip-it-will-be-a-good-indication-that-things-are-about-to-happen_04152013
As of this print the price of gold is reaching fresh two year lows, down nearly 25% from its all time high just six months ago. Though uninformed onlookers and financial pundits may see this as the popping of the proverbial gold bubble, the velocity and scale of the take-down in precious metals suggests that there is a massive assault in the works. According to former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts, last Friday’s price drop was the result of some 500 tons of gold being dumped onto paper markets, an amount equal to about $25 Billion dollars worth of the metal. Likewise, silver saw a similar dump and price drop. Moreover, the very same thing is taking place this morning, suggesting that some very large and influential market makers are involved.
Who has that kind of money and can afford to lose it in naked short positions? According to Paul Craig Roberts, “only a central bank that can print it.”
Thus, one must assume that this is not a natural effect of the free market, but rather, a coordinated attack on the global precious metals exchange orchestrated by our very own Federal Reserve, an organization run by a board of directors that includes representatives from some of the world’s largest banking institutions.
What’s most alarming about the collapse of gold and silver is that it was predicted in December of 2012 by a Department of Homeland Security Insider. In an interview with Doug Hagmann at the Northeast Intelligence Network, the insider warned that life for the average America would change drastically, and soon, and that this change would be preceded by various events, one of which is a major dip in precious metals:
They already are in motion. If you’re looking for a date I can’t tell you. Remember, the objectives are the same, but plans, well, they adapt. They exploit. Watch how this fiscal cliff thing plays out. This is the run-up to the next beg economic event.If we were to assume that this 25% dip amounting to some $50 billion just over the last two days could be the the precious metals “dip” referred to by the DHS Insider, then we must likewise assume that some very serious events are on the horizon.
I can’t give you a date. I can tell you to watch things this spring. Start with the inauguration and go from there. Watch the metals, when they dip. It will be a good indication that things are about to happen. I got that little tidbit from my friend at [REDACTED]
(full interview)
To what end?
That remains to be seen, but if the US government’s war-gaming of economic collapse and civil unrest is any guide, we may be looking at the worst case scenario many have feared – an engineered collapse of our financial and economic systems leading to the centralization of control through implementation of martial law across America.
Sound far-fetched?
Perhaps. Unless of course you’re part of the Congressional membership that was explicitly warned of this very possibility at the height of the 2008 crisis:
Many of us were told in private conversations that if we voted against this bill on Monday, that the sky would fall, the market would drop two or three thousands points the first day, another couple thousand the second day, and a few members were even told that there would be martial law in America if we voted no.
House Representative Brad Sherman (D-California)
Debate on the House Floor, October 2, 2008
[video source]
Do you really think they saved the system back in 2008?
According to SGT Report, those involved in the take-down of gold and silver may not been done yet, as the unrelenting push against precious metals proves once again that the arrogance of criminal cartels behind global financial market manipulation continues.
We once opined that you should expect exactly such an event - a mega drop in precious metals – to take place and that you’ll hate your gold so much you’ll want to spit on it.
But consider that in the 1970′s, as gold assailed to its eventual all-time highs, it washalved in price at least once over the ten year period that it rose from double digits to over $800 per ounce.
During times of uncertainty, irrational events will occur. This is inevitable.
Don’t let the hype and manipulation change your long-term preparedness plans.
Consider what is money when the system as we know it collapses, and continue to acquire those hard assets that will retain value and barterability.
The worst is yet to come.
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/this-is-it-watch-the-metals-when-they-dip-it-will-be-a-good-indication-that-things-are-about-to-happen_04152013
Gold, currency debasement and the fall of the Roman Empire
Have you seen what the gold price is doing? It's tanking almost as dramatically as the green energy investments, that's what. Though, of course, for rather different reasons.
The latest downward move has been prompted, at least in part, by Cyprus selling off its gold to meet its debt obligations. And also, perhaps, by Goldman Sachs revising downwards its estimate of where the gold price is going to be at the end of the year.
As a goldbug, obviously this troubles me. But not a lot. Like many true believers of the Austrian school (Margaret Thatcher was one of us, I suspect), I see this more than anything as a tremendous buying opportunity. I'm thinking this especially having read the fascinating new report from The Real Asset Company, which argues gold could go at least as high as $6,000. (Over four times its current price)
You'll say: "Well obviously they've got an interest in talking up the gold price." But they don't actually. On the occasions I've rung to ask them about where they think gold's going, they say: "We haven't a clue." As far as their business model is concerned it doesn't matter which way gold goes, because their money is made on a percentage of each trade, rather than the gold price itself.
So why, if they have no view on gold, are they yet hinting at this dramatic rise? Because, they argue, both history and market fundamentals show that it cannot be otherwise.
What's happening to fiat currency, they note, is much the same as what successive Roman emperors did to the denarius – debasing it to the point of near worthlessness. They quote The Collapse of Complex Societies by US anthropologist Joseph Tainter, which argues that monetary collapse was one of the main reasons for the Fall of the Roman Empire.
"By debasing currency, increasing taxes and imposing stringent regulations on the lives ofGold analyst and trader Andy Smith made the same point at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference earlier this month. At root, he argues, it's all down to government overspending. He quotes Tainter's point that currency debasement was a politically expedient measure adopted because "those who lived off the treasury were more numerous than those paying into it." And Gibbon, noting that "a large portion of public and private wealth was consecrated to the specious demands of charity."
individuals, the Empire was, for a time able to survive. It did so however by vastly increasing
its own costliness and in doing so decreased the marginal return it could offer its population.
These costs drained the peasantry so thoroughly that population could not recover from
outbreaks of plague, producing lands were abandoned and the ability of the state to support
itself deteriorated."
So, nihil sub sole novum.
Then there are the BRICs busily building up their gold reserves even as we in the declining old world economies reduce ours, with a view, it is suggested, to establishing one day their own new gold-backed reserve currency.
You can agree or disagree with this analysis but it makes fascinating reading. Personally I'm in this one for the long haul and as soon as I get a bit of extra money, I'm going to buy gold bullion. And silver bullion, come to that. (I would do Bitcoin too, but I fear I may be a bit late on that one).
For me, the only serious question is not "Will gold and silver go up a lot?" – they will. Rather, it has to do with how we're going to be able to keep our winnings on this one way-bet. The confiscation of savings in Cyprus, and recent talk in Germany of funding future bail outs with a wealth tax on the assets of "the rich" are auguries of things to come.
I like the advice given at the end of the report by Jim Rickards (author of Currency Wars: The Next Global Crisis).
The trick is to ride the gold wave higher and then pivot from gold to land before the windfall profit tax becomes law.Nice theory. Except as gold owners discovered after FDR's notorious 1933 Executive Order 6102, it's easier said than done.
German 'Wise Men' push for wealth seizure to fund EMU bail-outs
Two top advisers to German Chancellor Angela Merkel have called for a tax on private wealth and property in eurozone debtor states to force the rich to fund rescue costs, marking a radical new departure for EMU crisis strategy.
Photo: AFP PHOTO/YIANNIS KOURTOGLOUYiannis Kourtoglou/AFP/Getty Images
Professors Lars Feld and Peter Bofinger said states in trouble must pay more
for their own salvation, arguing that there is enough wealth in homes and
private assets across the Mediterranean to cover bail-out costs. “The rich
must give up part of their wealth over the next ten years,” said Prof
Bofinger.
The two economist are members of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts or
“Five Wise Men”, a body that advises the Chancellor on major issues. There
is no formal plan to launch a wealth tax but the council is often used to
fly kites for new policies.
Prof Bofinger told Spiegel Magazine that it was a mistake to target deposit
holders in banks, the formula used in the EU-IMF Troika bail-out for Cyprus
where those with savings above €100,000 at Laiki and Bank of Cyprus face
huge losses. “The canny rich in southern Europe just shift their money to
banks in Northern Europe to escape seizure,” he said.
Prof Feld said a new survey by the European Central Bank had revealed that
people in the crisis countries are richer than the Germans themselves. “This
shows that Germany has been right to take a tough line of euro rescue
loans,” he said.
The ECB study found that the “median” wealth of is €267,000 in Cyprus,
compared to just €51,000 in Germany where home ownership rate is just 44pc
and large numbers of people have almost no assets.
The median or midpoint level -- which strips out the distorting effect of the
super-rich -- was €183,000 for Spain, €172,000 for Italy, and €102,000, and
even €75,000 for Portugal.
Average wealth in Cyprus is €671,000, far higher than in the four AAA creditor states: Austria (265,000), Germany (195,000), Holland (170,000), Finland (161,000).
The ECB survey has hardened attitudes in Berlin, dooming efforts by Cyprus extract more money from the Eurogroup as rescue costs surge from €17.5bn to €23bn.
The study shows how EMU states have twisted themselves into a Gordian Knot under monetary union, and why Germans feel a strong sense of grievance over escalating bail-out demands. Yet it is also highly controversial since it relies on data before the housing crash in Spain, and may understate implicit wealth in Dutch pensions or German life insurance.
Any attempt to enforce a wealth tax in future rescue talks will be seen by Club Med as further evidence that the Northern powers will try to impose all the burden of crisis adjustment on those in trouble rather than accepting their own shared responsibility for the failings of the EMU. This comes a day after Germany said over the weekend that there could be no banking union after all without a fresh EU treaty, effectively kicking the issue into touch for years.
Critics have long argued that North Europe is equally to “blame” for the crisis since it flooded the South with cheap credit, and they accuse Germany of destabilizing the intra-EMU trade system by screwing down German wages and running a current account surplus of 7pc of GDP.
Any serious move to a wealth tax could the erode the pro-euro ardour of South Europe’s uber-rich. The ECB bond buying policy has largely rescued the wealthiest strata while the full brunt of EMU austerity has fallen on ordinary people and the unemployed.
The political debate on euro membership may change dramatically if rich Cypriots, Italians, Spaniards, and Portuguese start to see EMU as a threat to their property, rather than a defence.
Average wealth in Cyprus is €671,000, far higher than in the four AAA creditor states: Austria (265,000), Germany (195,000), Holland (170,000), Finland (161,000).
The ECB survey has hardened attitudes in Berlin, dooming efforts by Cyprus extract more money from the Eurogroup as rescue costs surge from €17.5bn to €23bn.
The study shows how EMU states have twisted themselves into a Gordian Knot under monetary union, and why Germans feel a strong sense of grievance over escalating bail-out demands. Yet it is also highly controversial since it relies on data before the housing crash in Spain, and may understate implicit wealth in Dutch pensions or German life insurance.
Any attempt to enforce a wealth tax in future rescue talks will be seen by Club Med as further evidence that the Northern powers will try to impose all the burden of crisis adjustment on those in trouble rather than accepting their own shared responsibility for the failings of the EMU. This comes a day after Germany said over the weekend that there could be no banking union after all without a fresh EU treaty, effectively kicking the issue into touch for years.
Critics have long argued that North Europe is equally to “blame” for the crisis since it flooded the South with cheap credit, and they accuse Germany of destabilizing the intra-EMU trade system by screwing down German wages and running a current account surplus of 7pc of GDP.
Any serious move to a wealth tax could the erode the pro-euro ardour of South Europe’s uber-rich. The ECB bond buying policy has largely rescued the wealthiest strata while the full brunt of EMU austerity has fallen on ordinary people and the unemployed.
The political debate on euro membership may change dramatically if rich Cypriots, Italians, Spaniards, and Portuguese start to see EMU as a threat to their property, rather than a defence.
Andrew Bailey: it's 'odd' UK bank bosses have avoided formal charges
Britain's chief financial regulator, Andrew Bailey, has said it is “more than odd” that the chairmen and chief executives who were at the helm of the failed banks have avoided formal charges.
Photo: Paul Grover
The chief executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) said that it
was a “source of some surprise” to him that authorities had brought cases
against junior bankers but not senior directors.
Speaking at a conference in London, Mr Bailey said it was “not the job of the
regulator” to say if individuals should go to prison.
But he added: “It is to my mind a very striking observation and difficulty
with the crisis that no formal action has been taken against any chief
executive or any chairmen of a failed institution. Not because I have a
personal vendetta against them but it is more than odd that action has been
taken against people lower down institutions but not at the top.”
He told the Future of Financial Services Summit that Barings directors had
been struck off after the bank was brought down by Nick Leeson, the rogue
trader in 1995. “They did not like that but it happened,” he said. “And it
has been the source of some surprise to me that it has not happened in wake
of the crisis to date.” But he said he "welcomed"
Vince Cable's announcement to investigate a boardroom ban for the three
former bosses of HBOS, Lord Stevenson, Sir James Crosby and
Andy Hornby, in the wake of the Parliamentary report into the collapse of
the bank.
Mr Bailey said he had been told that bosses were protected so far because
there was a “problem with the trail of evidence” that could convict a chief
executive. He said if this were the case, then it was evidence of a “flaw in
the system” peculiar to banking that allowed bosses to “delegate
responsibility as well as tasks”. He said the flaw “clearly we need to
address and fix.”
Chuka Umunna, the shadow Business Secretary, said some bank bosses should go
to jail. “Particularly in respect of the Libor rigging scandal, it seems to
me that we will not rebuild trust with the public or affect a culture change
in finance until custodial sentences are imposed on those guilty of criminal
wrongdoing.”
Mr Umunna also said Barclays decision to announce £40m of bonuses on Budget day when the focus was on austerity sent “all the wrong messages”. Ashok Vaswani, boss of retail banking at Barclays, said the timing of the decision had been a “mistake”.
Mr Umunna also said Barclays decision to announce £40m of bonuses on Budget day when the focus was on austerity sent “all the wrong messages”. Ashok Vaswani, boss of retail banking at Barclays, said the timing of the decision had been a “mistake”.
After Gold Slumped 9% , Silver Down 10% – Now Dow Is Dropping 200+ points – Everything Red Across The Board. Is This It? The Beginning of The big Crash and Collapse?
Let’s recap:
*Federal Reserve says they want to quit printing money (yeah right lol)
*Goldman Sacks cuts expectations on gold (forcing a sell off)
*500 tons of paper gold dumped on Friday (more pressure for sell off)
*DHS insider says collapse will happen in spring after metals get slammed (he’s right so far)
*Another insider says planned collapse to happen on April 25
*Those mysterious 100,000 put options expire on April 20 & April 25
Today’s Homebuilder Confidence Miss Destroys One Of The Biggest Myths About The Fed
Homebuilder Confidence Misses Expectations, Falls To 42
http://www.businessinsider.com/meanwhile-oil-is-down-33-2013-4
GOLD GOES INTO TOTAL FREEFALL: Falls To $1363
http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-just-went-in-for-another-beating–now-down-to-1383-2013-4#ixzz2QYzhJAec
What Happened The Last Time We Saw Gold Drop Like This?
The rapidity of gold’s drop is impressive, concerning, and disorderly. We have seen two other such instances of disorderly ‘hurried’ selling in the last five years. In July 2008, gold quickly dropped 21% – seemingly pre-empting the Lehman debacle and the collapse of the western banking system. In September 2011, gold fell 20% in a short period – as Europe’s risks exploded and stocks slumped prompting a globally co-ordinated central bank intervention the likes of which we have not seen before. Given the almost-record-breaking drop in gold in the last few days, we wonder what is coming?
This is what it looked like in Q3 2008…
http://nwostop.com/zero-hedge/59972-what-happened-the-last-time-we-saw-gold-drop-like-this
Bloody! Everything Red Across The Board
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Third “Eiffel Tower” in a row for S&P 500? Beware of “Look Alike Patterns!!!
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
An Eiffel Tower pattern formed in Apple (Apple Eiffel here) and Apple declines over $300 per share. Gold looks to have formed an Eiffel Tower pattern as it became the largest ETF on the planet! (Gold Eiffel here) Long Gold owners are feeling the brunt of that pattern the past few days.
A little bit before the top in 2011 and a 17% decline in the S&P 500 in 5 months, “look alike” patterns were taking place (See look alikes, Dominoes & Slipper slides)
Could the S&P 500 be forming a third Eiffel Tower pattern of the past 13 years in the chart above? Way too soon to tell.
Remember this…Its not the odds of a Pattern coming true that counts, its the impact if it does!!!
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2013/04/third-eiffel-tower-in-a-row-for-sp-500-beware-of-look-alike-patterns/
Dow
*Federal Reserve says they want to quit printing money (yeah right lol)
*Goldman Sacks cuts expectations on gold (forcing a sell off)
*500 tons of paper gold dumped on Friday (more pressure for sell off)
*DHS insider says collapse will happen in spring after metals get slammed (he’s right so far)
*Another insider says planned collapse to happen on April 25
*Those mysterious 100,000 put options expire on April 20 & April 25
Today’s Homebuilder Confidence Miss Destroys One Of The Biggest Myths About The Fed
Money is tight. Not loose.
http://www.businessinsider.com/homebuilders-say-money-is-still-tight-2013-4
Homebuilders blame credit conditions and construction costs.
http://www.businessinsider.com/april-nahb-housing-market-index-2013-4
Empire Fed Manufacturing Falls More Than Expectedhttp://www.businessinsider.com/april-nahb-housing-market-index-2013-4
7.00 expected after 9.24 last month.
http://www.businessinsider.com/empire-fed-manufacturing-april-2013-4
Meanwhile, Oil Is Down 3.4%http://www.businessinsider.com/empire-fed-manufacturing-april-2013-4
http://www.businessinsider.com/meanwhile-oil-is-down-33-2013-4
GOLD GOES INTO TOTAL FREEFALL: Falls To $1363
http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-just-went-in-for-another-beating–now-down-to-1383-2013-4#ixzz2QYzhJAec
What Happened The Last Time We Saw Gold Drop Like This?
The rapidity of gold’s drop is impressive, concerning, and disorderly. We have seen two other such instances of disorderly ‘hurried’ selling in the last five years. In July 2008, gold quickly dropped 21% – seemingly pre-empting the Lehman debacle and the collapse of the western banking system. In September 2011, gold fell 20% in a short period – as Europe’s risks exploded and stocks slumped prompting a globally co-ordinated central bank intervention the likes of which we have not seen before. Given the almost-record-breaking drop in gold in the last few days, we wonder what is coming?
This is what it looked like in Q3 2008…
http://nwostop.com/zero-hedge/59972-what-happened-the-last-time-we-saw-gold-drop-like-this
Bloody! Everything Red Across The Board
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Third “Eiffel Tower” in a row for S&P 500? Beware of “Look Alike Patterns!!!
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
An Eiffel Tower pattern formed in Apple (Apple Eiffel here) and Apple declines over $300 per share. Gold looks to have formed an Eiffel Tower pattern as it became the largest ETF on the planet! (Gold Eiffel here) Long Gold owners are feeling the brunt of that pattern the past few days.
A little bit before the top in 2011 and a 17% decline in the S&P 500 in 5 months, “look alike” patterns were taking place (See look alikes, Dominoes & Slipper slides)
Could the S&P 500 be forming a third Eiffel Tower pattern of the past 13 years in the chart above? Way too soon to tell.
Remember this…Its not the odds of a Pattern coming true that counts, its the impact if it does!!!
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2013/04/third-eiffel-tower-in-a-row-for-sp-500-beware-of-look-alike-patterns/
Dow
14,659-2041.37%
Economists predict 8 percent growth in key Chinese economic report
Topics: china ♦ gross domestic product
- 3
- EmailChina’
First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) for the world’s second-largest economy is due to be announced Monday and the median forecast in the poll of 12 economists was for an 8.0 percent increase year-on-year.
That would be a notch up from the 7.9 percent attained in the final quarter of last year, which snapped seven straight quarters of slowing growth and raised hopes of a stable recovery as other major economies remain relatively weak.
China’s economy grew 7.8 percent in 2012, its slowest rate in 13 years, and authorities have kept their growth target for 2013 at a conservative 7.5 percent.
In an effort to boost the economy, Beijing last year relaxed monetary policy and access to credit, while keeping a eye on politically sensitive price increases.
Inflation remains moderate, coming in at just 2.1 percent in March year on year, but could speed up because of a rapid increase in credit in January and March.
“While retail sales remained subdued in Q1 on the government’s initiative to crack down (on) corruption and official (extravagance), real estate sales and car sales are much stronger than expected,” said ANZ Bank economist Liu Ligang.
But home sales surged due to a rush of purchases ahead of expected new restrictions meant to curb speculation, Liu said, indicating that improvements in the sector might not last.
China’s leaders have vowed to rebalance the economy away from reliance on traditional growth drivers investment and exports and towards consumer demand, but that is not proving easy.
“The economy is still mainly supported by infrastructure projects… which is absolutely unsustainable,” said Shen Jianguang of Mizuho Securities Asia in Hong Kong.
“Electricity (consumption) in March had zero growth, which means investment demand was very weak because of overcapacity,” he added.
March trade figures showed a small but still surprising deficit of $880 million, a rarity in a country that normally records surpluses, and analysts viewed the figure with scepticism.
Exports to Hong Kong — which are often re-exported to other destinations — grew 93 percent last month while those to the European Union and the United States fell 14 percent and seven percent respectively, said Alistair Thornton and Ren Xianfang of IHS Global Insight.
“This seems a little incongruous, to say the least,” they wrote in a report, adding that some declared exports could have been used to disguise capital inflows into China, or to exploit tax rebates on overseas sales, or for political reasons.
“Either the trade data is unreliable, or if it is reliable, then what are being booked as exports are not actually exports,” they said.
Video: Criminal Bank Cartel Attack. Sign The End Is Nigh?
On the Friday before Americans had to file their income taxes were
due an Investment bank used Merrill Lynch brokerage to sell 3.4 million
ounces of gold (100 tonnes). Two hours later 10 million ounces of (300
tonnes)was sold. Of course these were all paper certificates and not
physical assets.
This is the third time we have had a 20% drop in gold since 2008.
I think this is a sign of desperation. Physical gold was unavailable in many cities in Asia. The gold and silver markets will recover as many Central banks rush to buy bullion. The Italians might soon have another election. Beppe Grillo , the leading candidate in Italy, has said he will never sell their gold. He will need it to drop out of the euro and go to the lira.
I am convinced we are near another False Flag event planned for us by the bankers. It will be as big as 911 but unlike it in other ways to fool as many of us as possible for at least a few months. I do not see the bankers as capable of lasting until the 2014 and 2016 American elections.
The point is that the bankers are trying to get their hands on as much bullion as possible before the yen, the pound, the euro and the dollar collapse.
The End is Nigh. Beware of a False Flag.
This is the third time we have had a 20% drop in gold since 2008.
I think this is a sign of desperation. Physical gold was unavailable in many cities in Asia. The gold and silver markets will recover as many Central banks rush to buy bullion. The Italians might soon have another election. Beppe Grillo , the leading candidate in Italy, has said he will never sell their gold. He will need it to drop out of the euro and go to the lira.
I am convinced we are near another False Flag event planned for us by the bankers. It will be as big as 911 but unlike it in other ways to fool as many of us as possible for at least a few months. I do not see the bankers as capable of lasting until the 2014 and 2016 American elections.
The point is that the bankers are trying to get their hands on as much bullion as possible before the yen, the pound, the euro and the dollar collapse.
The End is Nigh. Beware of a False Flag.
If Companies Are People...
HERE’S an idea: why not tax corporations as if they were natural
persons, in accordance with their newly discovered rights of free
speech? That move would solve any impending fiscal crisis.
Indeed, we used to do just that. For most of the 1950s, corporate income at large companies was taxed at 52 percent, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. The federal government, meanwhile, collected about a third of its revenues
from this source. Today, thanks largely to the “reforms” ushered in by
President Ronald Reagan, the ostensible tax rate on corporate income is
no higher than 35 percent — and the corporate-tax share of federal
revenue has fallen to about 9 percent.
For a view as to how this happened, consider General Electric. Back in
the 1950s and early ’60s, when Reagan was a company pitchman, G.E. was a
manufacturer of consumer appliances. It employed hundreds of thousands
of people, and it paid millions of dollars in taxes every year. Now, it
makes jet engines, wind turbines and other kinds of capital equipment,
but its real profit center is financing the sale of these products
overseas — because income generated here is tax exempt if it remains
offshore.
In 2010 G.E. employed more than 130,000 people in the United States, and earned $14.2 billion,
$5.1 billion of which was generated in the United States. And yet its
American tax bill for that year, according to a report by The New York
Times, was zero. (G.E. said in a news release last year that its “global tax rate” in 2010 was 7 percent, but did not disclose how much of that went to the I.R.S.)
Meanwhile, federal spending steadily increased, in line with the growth
of the welfare state. As corporations lobbied and learned to avoid
taxes, the government began to close the revenue gap with payroll taxes.
These were negligible before the creation of Medicare in 1965, but they
now account for more than a third of federal revenue — in effect, they
replaced the income taxes once paid by corporations.
Personal income taxes (which have stayed at about 45 percent of federal
revenues since 1950) and payroll taxes now provide the federal
government with almost 80 percent of its yearly revenue.
Unlike personal income taxes, Medicare and Social Security taxes — which
are jointly known as FICA (for Federal Insurance Contributions Act), or
payroll taxes — are plainly regressive. Because of the payroll cap on
Social Security contributions, the bottom quintile of income recipients
pays a 7.3 percent FICA rate, while the top quintile pays a 6.8 percent
rate and the top 1 percent of earners pay a rate of just 0.9 percent.
So, by slashing corporate income taxes and forcing a new reliance on
payroll taxes to finance government spending, we have redistributed
income to the already wealthy and powerful. Our tax system has actually
fostered inequality.
The fiscal problem we face is not, then, a lack of revenue sources. We
can finance any amount of transfer payments and “entitlements” by taxing
corporations’ profits in the same way we tax personal income, using a
progressive formula. If necessary, give them a mortgage deduction — they
already get something like it in the form of accelerated depreciation
allowances on their purchases of capital equipment — but make them pay
higher taxes on their income. Do that, and the federal deficit goes
away.
The now-familiar objection to a tax increase on corporate profits is
that it will discourage private investment and thus dampen job creation.
The retort is just as obvious: since when have tax cuts on corporate
profits led to increased investment, faster job creation and higher per
capita consumption out of rising real wages? It didn’t happen after the
Reagan Revolution, it didn’t happen during the Clinton boom of the
1990s, and it sure didn’t happen under George W. Bush.
Nor is it happening now, as corporate profits soar and full-time job
creation languishes. American corporations are now sitting on $4.75 trillion in cash, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The other well-worn objection to an increase of corporate income taxes
is that it would encourage companies to invest and hire overseas, where
tax rates are presumably lower. Here, too, the retort is obvious: the
tax code already works exactly this way by postponing taxes until
profits from investment overseas are repatriated. American companies
routinely avoid taxation by moving their idle cash offshore.
In view of these facts, there’s no downside to replacing payroll taxes
with increased taxes on corporate profits, wherever they’re made or
held. By doing so, we make the tax code more progressive, and mobilize
capital that is otherwise inert. In other words, we can lay solid
foundations for economic growth simply by going back to the tax
principles we used to have. What could be more conservative than that?
James Livingston, a professor of history at Rutgers, is the author of “Against Thrift: Why Consumer Culture Is Good for the Economy, the Environment, and Your Soul.”
A version of this op-ed appeared in print on April 15, 2013, on page A19 of the New York edition with the headline: If Companies Are People....
MUST SEE: Is The Fed Lying About Its Gold?
How Central Banks suppress the price of gold.
Start watching exactly at 7:45 and listen at least until 9:30. Dr. Mark Thornton talks to Lew Rockwell about monetary tsunamis, Ron Paul, the Fed and Germany's gold.
---
UPDATE - If the Fed needs to buy several hundred tons of gold to eventually send back to Germany, they would certainly benefit from today's lower prices, wouldn't they.
Explanation: How Central Banks lease out their gold
CNBC: "There's A Rumor There's No Gold At Fort Knox"
The Bernank has been busy.
Pennsylvania Court Deals Blow to Secrecy-Obsessed Fracking Industry
A Pennsylvania judge in the heart of the Keystone State’s fracking belt has issued a forceful and precedent-setting decision holding that there is no corporate right to privacy under that state’s constitution, giving citizens and journalists a powerful tool to understand the health and environmental impacts of natural gas drilling in their communities.
“Whether a right of privacy for businesses exists within the prenumbral rights of Pennsylvania’s constitution is a matter of first impression,” wrote Washington County Court of Common Pleas Judge Debbie O’Dell Seneca late last month. “It does not.”
Judge O’Dell Seneca’s ruling comes in an ongoing case where several newspapers sued to unseal a confidential settlement where major fracking corporations paid $750,000 to a family that claimed the gas drilling had contaminated their water and harmed their health. The Court ordered that settlement unsealed, enabling the papers, environmentalists and community rights advocates to examine the health issues and causes.
“The ruling represents the first crack in the judicial armor that has been so meticulously welded together by major corporations,” said Thomas Linzey, executive director of the Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund, which has helped 150 communities in eight states adopt Community Bill of Rights to limit corporate powers. “It affirms what many communities already know, that change only occurs when people begin to openly question and challenge legal doctrines that have been treated as sacred by most lawyers and judges.”
The Court’s ruling is significant because the fracking companies have relied on secrecy agreements with landowners to hide the environmental and health impacts of gas drilling. Corporate lawyers even filed briefs in this case claiming that environmental and public health groups such as Earthjustice, Philadelphia Physicians for Social Responsibility and others were barred from submitting ‘friend of the court’ briefs, which they recanted in a hearing, the ruling noted, “because no such rule of exclusion exists.”
But where the ruling is likely to make the biggest waves is in the so-called corporate personhood debate. The Judge spent more than a third of her 32-page decision saying why corporations and business entities were not the same as people under Pennsylvania’s constitution, and why, for the purposes of doing business in the state, that federal court rulings that blur the rights of people and businesses do not apply.
“This court ruling is a significant development for the growing movement to restore democracy to the people,” said John Bonifaz, the co-founder and executive director of Free Speech For People, a national campaign launched on the day of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United v. FEC. “The ruling is the newest example of dissent within the judiciary to the fabricated doctrine of corporate constitutional rights. It will be held up for years to come as a powerful defense of the promise of American self-government: of, by, and for the people.”
Judge O’Dell Seneca cited the text of the 1776 Pennsylvania constitution, the history of its various provisions, related recent case law from other states and policy considerations, and rejected the various claims by corporate lawyers that “made no attempt to parse those texts and construe them in light of the full document.” The Court wrote, “Nothing in that jurisprudence indicates that that right [of privacy] is available to business entities.”
“There are no men or woman defendants in the instant case; they are various business entities,” it wrote, saying business entities are created by the state and subject to laws, unlike people with natural rights. “In the absence of state law, business entities are nothing.” If businesses had natural rights like people, “the chattel would become the co-equal to its owners, the servant on par with its masters, the agent the peer of its principles, and the legal fabrication superior to the law that created and sustains it.”
The judge said the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment “use of the word ‘person’ that makes its protections applicable to business entities” does not apply to Pennsylvania’s constitution. “The exact opposite is derived from plan language of Article X of the Constitution of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.”
“Not only did our framers know how to employ the names of business entities when and where they wanted them… they used those words to subjugate business entities to the constitution,” the Court held. “The framers permitted the Commonwealth to revoke, amend, and repeal ‘[a]ll charters of private corporations’ and any ‘powers, duties or liabilities’ of corpoeations… If the framers had intended this section [Article 1, Section 8] to shield corporations, limited-liability corporations, or partnerships, the Court presumes that they could and would have used those words. The plain meaning of ‘people’ is the living, breathing humans in this Commonwealth.”
The Court held that businesses do have legal rights protecting them from unreasonable searches and siezure of property, but that’s not the same as a right to personal privacy. “Our Commonwealth’s case law has not established a constitutional right of privacy to shield them from out laws.”
And looking at case law and rulings from other states, it held, “This Court found no case establishing a constitutional right of privacy for businesses, and it uncovered only one case that allowed a corporation to assert a state-based right to be free from unreasonable searches and siezures in a criminal matter.”
Summing up, the Court said “it is axiomatic that corporations, companies, and partnerships have ‘no spiritual nature,’ ‘feelings,’ ‘intellect,’ ‘beliefs,’ ‘thoughts,’ ‘emotions,’ or ‘sensations,’ because they do not exist in the manner that humankind exists… They cannot be ‘let alone’ by government, because businesses are like grapes, ripe upon the vine of the law, that the people of this Commonwealth raise, tendm prune and their pleasure and need.”
The Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund’s Linzey said that this ruling will affect other anti-fracking litigation in state court, but more importantly is a landmark in the ongoing community rights movement to elevate public values over private profits.
“It is that disobedience, of entire communities sitting at lunch counters demanding to be served, that is our only hope of salvation in a world increasingly commandeered by a small handful of corporate decisionmakers intent on remaking the world as their own,” he said. “A revolution that subordinates the powers and rights of corporations to the rights of people and nature now waits in the wings.”
“Judge O'Dell Seneca is on the right side of history,” said Bonifaz. “She has clearly articulated what millions of people across this country understand: that people, not corporations, shall govern in America. Judge O'Dell Seneca’s ruling provides further legal support for the national movement for a constitutional amendment to reclaim our democracy and to make clear that corporations are not people with constitutional rights.”
This article was published in partnership with GlobalPossibilities.org.
Gold & Silver COT Report 4/12/13: Commercials May Slam Silver to $17!
By SD Contributor Marshall Swing:
Gold & Silver COT Report 4/12/13:
Many writers were declaring a bottom for the silver slide after price rose from last Friday’s low of $26.57 and rose to $27.90 at Tuesday’s close.
They were wrong.
Almost all writers have previously declared $26 as the holy grail never to be broken downward again.
They were wrong.
How low can price go? I will repeat what Martin Armstrong has said we may see $23 and then if that, then $17 is possible.
Commercial longs added 3,213 contracts to their total and an additional 2,634 shorts to end the week with 43.16% of all open interest, a minor increase of 0.08% in their share of total open interest since last week, and now stand as a group at 89,620,000 ounces net short, which is a decrease of just under 3 million net short ounces from the previous week.
Large speculators added 291 longs and 522 more short contracts decreasing their net long position to 39,575,000 ounces, a decrease in their net long position of just over 1.1 million ounces from the prior week.
Small speculators sold off a total 1,457 long contracts and covered 1,109 short positions from their total for a net long position of 50,045,000 ounces a decrease of 1.74 million ounces net long from the prior week.
Many writers were declaring a bottom for the silver slide after price rose from last Friday’s low of $26.57 and rose to $27.90 at Tuesday’s close.
They were wrong.
Almost all writers have previously declared $26 as the holy grail never to be broken downward again.
They were wrong.
From the close on Tuesday to close Friday, price has been all downhill to the tune of more than $2 down. It is now Sunday evening and price has dropped $1.50 from the open to as low as $24.08
Large speculators and swap dealers were stunningly silent during the COT week as the real battle was between the producer merchant and small specs and it would appear the producer merchant had their way. Or at least it was a few small specs who decided to get out of the waterfall’s way.
How low can price go? I will repeat what Martin Armstrong has said we may see $23 and then if that then $17 is possible.
Last year, I shared a thought with the Doc that we could see a blowout to $16 and below, possibly a short term at $12. While that was meant to be a private thought to the Doc, he published it, and there were 300 some comments on it. I have an industry friend that told me last year the average cost of silver he calculated to be about $16 an ounce. SRSRocco has published he believes true cost is around $26 an ounce I believe and he has some good points. I tend to agree with the lower price because I believe that research is more accurate. A lot of silver production is as a by-product of zinc and copper and therefore the cost per ounce is negligible. Analysts shed great tears and stay up late nights trying to figure this out so they can bet on miners.
Could this be the big flip Jim Sinclair keeps talking about? It could be but it is important to remember with any rush to longs by the commercials there will be a huge amount of speculators rushing to longs as well and in futures there must be a short for every long and when the general public believes there is a bottom they are not going to buy shorts anymore. It is the large speculator hedge funds who are driving this effort to find a bottom and they paused their action last reporting period but my guess is since Friday morning they have resumed their short positioning efforts.
In gold, we have to go to the disaggregated commercials to see what was really going on last week and there we find the producer merchant closing positions and the swap dealers taking positions.
The gold swap dealers bought heavily in shorts last period and do not think for a minute they did not have an inkling that price was headed south in a big way and it has. At this past COT close price in gold was $1584 and here on Sunday evening it hit a low of $1422.
Can anybody spell P-R-O-F-I-T ???
Quick math on 8,477 contracts at 100 ounces each from $1548 where I think they bought them, let’s round to making $100 an ounce, comes to a rough $85 million.
Not a bad weekend’s work, aye?
Gold & Silver COT Report 4/12/13:
Many writers were declaring a bottom for the silver slide after price rose from last Friday’s low of $26.57 and rose to $27.90 at Tuesday’s close.
They were wrong.
Almost all writers have previously declared $26 as the holy grail never to be broken downward again.
They were wrong.
How low can price go? I will repeat what Martin Armstrong has said we may see $23 and then if that, then $17 is possible.
Commercial longs added 3,213 contracts to their total and an additional 2,634 shorts to end the week with 43.16% of all open interest, a minor increase of 0.08% in their share of total open interest since last week, and now stand as a group at 89,620,000 ounces net short, which is a decrease of just under 3 million net short ounces from the previous week.
Large speculators added 291 longs and 522 more short contracts decreasing their net long position to 39,575,000 ounces, a decrease in their net long position of just over 1.1 million ounces from the prior week.
Small speculators sold off a total 1,457 long contracts and covered 1,109 short positions from their total for a net long position of 50,045,000 ounces a decrease of 1.74 million ounces net long from the prior week.
Many writers were declaring a bottom for the silver slide after price rose from last Friday’s low of $26.57 and rose to $27.90 at Tuesday’s close.
They were wrong.
Almost all writers have previously declared $26 as the holy grail never to be broken downward again.
They were wrong.
From the close on Tuesday to close Friday, price has been all downhill to the tune of more than $2 down. It is now Sunday evening and price has dropped $1.50 from the open to as low as $24.08
Large speculators and swap dealers were stunningly silent during the COT week as the real battle was between the producer merchant and small specs and it would appear the producer merchant had their way. Or at least it was a few small specs who decided to get out of the waterfall’s way.
How low can price go? I will repeat what Martin Armstrong has said we may see $23 and then if that then $17 is possible.
Last year, I shared a thought with the Doc that we could see a blowout to $16 and below, possibly a short term at $12. While that was meant to be a private thought to the Doc, he published it, and there were 300 some comments on it. I have an industry friend that told me last year the average cost of silver he calculated to be about $16 an ounce. SRSRocco has published he believes true cost is around $26 an ounce I believe and he has some good points. I tend to agree with the lower price because I believe that research is more accurate. A lot of silver production is as a by-product of zinc and copper and therefore the cost per ounce is negligible. Analysts shed great tears and stay up late nights trying to figure this out so they can bet on miners.
Could this be the big flip Jim Sinclair keeps talking about? It could be but it is important to remember with any rush to longs by the commercials there will be a huge amount of speculators rushing to longs as well and in futures there must be a short for every long and when the general public believes there is a bottom they are not going to buy shorts anymore. It is the large speculator hedge funds who are driving this effort to find a bottom and they paused their action last reporting period but my guess is since Friday morning they have resumed their short positioning efforts.
In gold, we have to go to the disaggregated commercials to see what was really going on last week and there we find the producer merchant closing positions and the swap dealers taking positions.
The gold swap dealers bought heavily in shorts last period and do not think for a minute they did not have an inkling that price was headed south in a big way and it has. At this past COT close price in gold was $1584 and here on Sunday evening it hit a low of $1422.
Can anybody spell P-R-O-F-I-T ???
Quick math on 8,477 contracts at 100 ounces each from $1548 where I think they bought them, let’s round to making $100 an ounce, comes to a rough $85 million.
Not a bad weekend’s work, aye?
Santelli On Gold Panic Selling: 'HERE'S THE RUMOR'...
Rick Santelli on gold rumors sparking widespread selling.
Don't skip the final minute with discussion of central banks.
About an hour ago on CNBC.
"There was a rumor of a sell order early Friday of 4 million ounces. That's 125 tons for sale...just on the open."
This is the clip you need to see from earlier today:
Gartman On Gold Collapse: 'PANIC IS EVERYWHERE'...
Latest News
GOLD LIVE QUOTE...
GOLD PLUNGE...
Investors Bail Amid Collapse...
Cyprus Central Bank Denies Plan to Sell Gold
LIVE CHART...
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CNBC Rush Transcript
take a look at an intraday look at gold. every time you think it'sstabilized it's down $1135. lost $30 in the past two minutes.rick santelli watching this incredible intraday action thismorning. hey, rick. hi, carl. first of all, and i don't mean to surround like a know it all in anyway. i'm looking at a lot of stories. i've been looking at gold for 40 years and i don't see anything like it. i disagree. there was a period of time in early 1980 where the futures market in chicago, before they owned the contract. it was a chicago mercantile exchange. and that contract had volatility bigger than this considering its price was half of what the current price is. all right. set that aside. let's consider this. some of the numbers -- and believe me, listeners, we are talking in generalalities. it's very difficult to pull in all the bullion, the over the counter, the etfs, but it seems to me that one large wire house in particular seems to have beenrumored to have had a sell order early friday that was anywherefrom, well, 3 1/2 to 4 million ounces. now, i can't tell you it'stotally true but looking at the price, i suspect it is, that'sanywhere from 100 to 125 tons. that is rumored to be just howmuch move on the opening. but it almost doesn't really matter what the number is. let's think about some things and try to draw some generalalities. first of all, we know a lot of these markets are furth er insight and the 4th of april when the bank of japan pulled out even bigger than ours considering the size of their economy, which is things like quantitative easing. their two-year note today is hov verge around 14 basis points. what was it the day before the bank of japan met? six basis points.that same day, the 4th, we saw a 32-basis point low on the tenure which closed at 65 today. first question, do you thinkcentral banks work in a vacuum? do you think the bank of japannever talked to the fed that never talks to the ecb? i'm not buying it. now, we also know that one of the instigators for the sell-offin gold was rumored to be what the cypriot national bank coulddo. mario draghi was very careful to say we can't tell the centralbank what to do. but i can't believe if they're all talking about quantitative easing central bank, the large holders of gold, that there isn't some communication there. do you think it makes the central bank look bad when gold is 1800 or 1900? i think so. what does it mean now? back to you. rick, before we let you go, having major trading a long time when does it getconcerning? when does your eyes really get opened? well, first of all, anybody who takes the bottom is going to probably get carried out. even if they pick it correctly, to me, it's a dangerous day. remember, those highs made in early 1980, adjusted forinflation, about 2300 an ounce, we haven't even gotten thereadjusted for inflation. to say those highs in 1980 marked the end of gold for a long time to the upside. it tends to move in long, long trends.
Gartman On Gold Collapse: 'PANIC IS EVERYWHERE'...
Gold Crashes Most in 30 Years … What Does It Really Mean?
Why Is Gold Crashing?
Gold has fallen off a cliff. It has fallen faster than at any time in the last 30 years.Zero Hedge notes:
Adding insult to injury, the Shanghai Gold Exchange overnight announced that following the tumbling precious metal prices and limit down drop in early trading, it may raise trading margins for its gold and silver forward contracts.Raising margin requirements tends to trigger further selling.
(Update: CME has also raised margin requirements.)
Some Say It Is a Good Time to Buy
While most financial advisers are screaming “sell!”, there are some well-known contrarians.For example, Bill Gross still recommends buying gold.
Marc Faber says:
“I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down because that will offer an excellent buying opportunity” …. “The bull market in gold is not completed.”John Hathaway of Tocqueville Funds (with $10 billion under management) says that the selloff in gold is “a contrarian’s dream scenario”:
The evidence shows strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in the mining shares. It seems like a contrarian’s dream scenario to us.And Zero Hedge notes that – from the perspective of technical analysis – gold is the most oversold it has been in 14 years.
The Bearish Explanation
But why has gold crashed?Bloomberg blames:
- “Optimism that a U.S. recovery will curb the need for stimulus”; and
- “The prospect that beleaguered members of the euro zone might be forced to sell gold to raise part of the funding, and there are much bigger holders in that category than Cyprus.”
Gold decline may have been related to some break in technical levels and the general improvement in global risk appetite.CNN theorizes:
Monday’s broad decline was sparked by slowing growth in China. The world’s second biggest economy grew by 7.7% in the first quarter of the year, down from 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012.Larry Edelson writes:
The growth number was higher than the Chinese government’s target for 2013 but much weaker than the 8% most economists were expecting.
Other China data also raised doubts about the health of the global economy – industrial production slowed to 8.9% in March against economists’ forecasts for about 10%.
The weak China data could mean reduced demand for commodities from the world’s second biggest economy and subdued inflationary pressures. Gold is often viewed as a safe store of value when prices are rising.
You have to realize that sometimes gold is money … and sometimes it’s not.Business Insider argues:
Right now, gold is not money. Just consider what’s happening in Japan. The wicked and aggressive devaluation of the Japanese yen is setting off a massive stampede OUT of gold and into cash and other assets.
***
Why are the Japanese dumping gold, especially when their currency is being devalued?
It’s simple. The fall in the Japanese yen caused the price of gold in yen to spike sharply higher. So Japanese investors are cashing in their profits.
In addition, Japanese investors want to either spend their gold proceeds, or move it into other assets. They need liquidity. And holding on to gold is not a liquid situation.
It’s very easy to understand. This sort of thing is also happening in Europe, where gold demand is also down.
Why? Because if you have money in a bank, Cyprus has proven that European leaders will stop at nothing to try to solve Europe’s crisis, even if it means confiscating your money from your bank.
Gold’s not going to do you much good in that situation. If you take your money out of the bank and buy gold, how are you going to pay for the basic necessities in life?
Moreover, how are you going to move your gold out of the country, if that’s what you wish to do (which many Europeans are indeed doing)?
Moving physical gold around isn’t so easy either. It takes time and money to move your gold. And even then, you won’t know how safe it is, because in the back of your mind there’s always that fear that your gold could be confiscated.
The bottom line: While gold is indeed the ultimate long-term store of value against depreciating currencies and failing governments, there are times when forces that are seemingly bullish for gold are actually bearish.
[Gold's price collapse] vindicates the economic ideas of the economic elites.Barry Ritholtz writes:
***
To respond to the economic crisis, economists and mainstream policy makers have favored highly unusual policy measures (massive Fed balance sheet expansion, massive stimulus, etc.). These ideas are usually based on years of traditional economic research (Keynesianism, monetarism, etc.).
All of these ideas have been slammed by heterodox types like Austrian economists, who have warned of hyperinflation, and gold going to $10,000.
So the collapse in gold is not about gold, but about vindication for a large corpus of belief and economic research, which has largely panned out. It’s great that our economic elites know what they’re talking about, and have the tools at their disposal to address crises without creating some new catastrophe.
Things aren’t great in the economy, but the collapse/hyperinflation fears haven’t panned out, and the decline in gold is a manifestation of that.
History shows Gold trades differently than equities. Why? It comes back to those fundamentals.
It has are none.
This is not to say gold is not affected by Macro issues. But that is very different than saying Gld has a fundamental value, an intrinsic worth. It does not. That led to this heretical advice: Gold is not, and can never be, an investment. It has no true intrinsic value, no cash flow, no earnings, no coupon. no yield. What people call fundamentals are nothing more than broad macro analysis (and how have your macro funds done lately?). Gold is the ultimate greater fool trade, with many of its owners part of a collective belief theory rife with cognitive errors and bias.
I do not want to engage in Goldenfreude — the delight in gold bugs’ collective pain — but I am compelled to point out how basic flaws in their belief system has led them to this place where they are today.
Gold does trade technically, and is especially driven by the collective belief system of the crowd. When that falter, well, you know what happens . . .
Gold Bug View
Gold bugs, on the other hand, see things quite differently.Andrew Maguire says that the crash is solely in the paper gold market … and that there is actually a shortage of physical gold. Many other sources make the same claim.
Egon von Greyerz – founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management – argues:
They shouldn’t be concerned about the temporary pressure on gold. This decline has nothing to do with the physical market because enormous demand for gold continues.London bullion dealer Sharps Pixley thinks that the crash was largely initiated by a single entity:
The paper market in gold is not a real market, and at some point in the near future paper gold holders will wake up and realize they are holding are worthless pieces of paper. This is when the world will witness one of the greatest short squeezes in history as investors panic in to physical and the price of gold explodes to the upside.”
The gold futures markets opened in New York on Friday 12th April to a monumental 3.4 million ounces (100 tonnes) of gold selling of the June futures contract in what proved to be only an opening shot. The selling took gold to the technically very important level of $1540 which was not only the low of 2012, it was also seen by many as the level which confirmed the ongoing bull run which dates back to 2000. In many traders minds it stood as a formidable support level… the line in the sand.Gold Core’s Mark O’Byrne agrees.
Two hours later the initial selling, rumoured to have been routed through Merrill Lynch’s floor team, by a rather more significant blast when the floor was hit by a further 10 million ounces of selling (300 tonnes) over the following 30 minutes of trading. This was clearly not a case of disappointed longs leaving the market – it had the hallmarks of a concerted ‘short sale’, which by driving prices sharply lower in a display of ‘shock & awe’ – would seek to gain further momentum by prompting others to also sell as their positions as they hit their maximum acceptable losses or so-called ‘stopped-out’ in market parlance – probably hidden the unimpeachable (?) $1540 level.
The selling was timed for optimal impact with New York at its most liquid, while key overseas gold markets including London were open and able feel the impact. The estimated 400 tonne of gold futures selling in total equates to 15% of annual gold mine production – too much for the market to readily absorb, especially with sentiment weak following gold’s non performance in the wake of Japanese QE, a nuclear threat from North Korea and weakening US economic data.
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By forcing the market lower the Fund sought to prompt a cascade or avalanche of additional selling, proving the lie \; predictably some newswires were premature in announcing the death of the gold bull run doing, in effect, the dirty work of the shorters in driving the market lower still.
James Rickards thinks the Fed is manipulating the gold market (and every other market).
Former assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts says:
Rapidly rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate. The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to offset the price effect of a rising demand for bullion possession. Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that automatically lead to individual sales of bullion holdings once their loss limits are reached.Roberts also says:
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According to Andrew Maguire, on Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500 tons of naked shorts. Normally, a short is when an investor thinks the price of a stock or commodity is going to fall. He wants to sell the item in advance of the fall, pocket the money, and then buy the item back after it falls in price, thus making money on the short sale. If he doesn’t have the item, he borrows it from someone who does, putting up cash collateral equal to the current market price. Then he sells the item, waits for it to fall in price, buys it back at the lower price and returns it to the owner who returns his collateral. If enough shorts are sold, the result can be to drive down the market price.
***
Bullion dealer Bill Haynes told kingworldnews.com that last Friday bullion purchasers among the public outpaced sellers by 50 to 1, and that the premiums over the spot price on gold and silver coins are the highest in decades. I myself checked with Gainesville Coins and was told that far more buyers than sellers had responded to the price drop.
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In addition to short selling that is clearly intended to drive down the gold price, orchestration is also indicated by the advance announcements this month first from brokerage houses and then from Goldman Sachs that hedge funds and institutional investors would be selling their gold positions.
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I see the orchestrated effort to suppress the price of gold and silver as a sign that the authorities are frightened that trouble is brewing that they cannot control unless there is strong confidence in the dollar.
This is an orchestration (the smash in gold). It’s been going on now from the beginning of April. Brokerage houses told their individual clients the word was out that hedge funds and institutional investors were going to be dumping gold and that they should get out in advance. Then, a couple of days ago, Goldman Sachs announced there would be further departures from gold. So what they are trying to do is scare the individual investor out of bullion. Clearly there is something desperate going on….Indeed, this may tie into the Federal Reserve leak of insider information. Specifically, Roberts writes:
The Federal Reserve began its April Fool’s assault on gold by sending the word to brokerage houses, which quickly went out to clients, that hedge funds and other large investors were going to unload their gold positions and that clients should get out of the precious metal market prior to these sales. As this inside information was the government’s own strategy, individuals cannot be prosecuted for acting on it. By this operation, the Federal Reserve, a totally corrupt entity, was able to combine individual flight with institutional flight. Bullion prices took a big hit, and bullishness departed from the gold and silver markets. The flow of dollars into bullion, which threatened to become a torrent, was stopped.As Congressman Grayson pointed out in a recent letter, right after the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee leaked valuable inside information to big banks, Goldman told its clients:
We recommend initiating a short COMEX gold position ….Background on gold manipulation.
The entire economy is a Ponzi scheme. The global financial system is insolvent
Ponzinomics
Bill Gross, Nouriel Roubini, Laurence Kotlikoff, Steve Keen, Michel Chossudovsky, the Wall Street Journal and many others say that our entire economy is a Ponzi scheme.
Former Reagan budget director David Stockton just agreed:
So did a top Russian con artist and mathematician.
Even the New York Times‘ business page asked, “Was [the] whole economy a Ponzi scheme?“
In fact – as we’ve noted for 4 years (and here and here) – the banking system is entirely insolvent. And so are most countries. The whole notion of one country bailing out another country is a farce at this point. The whole system is insolvent.
As we noted last year: Nobel economist Joe Stiglitz pointed out the Ponzi scheme nature of the whole bailout discussion:
Indeed, population may be the biggest ponzi scheme of all. Specifically – as we’ve pointed out for years – rapidly-aging populations in the developed world will exert a big drag on the economy.
The Global Mail notes:
There’s HOPE
The above is admittedly depressing. But the reality is that there’s hope.
We can have a very bright future, indeed … if we switch from the status quo to something smarter. For example, see this and this.
For example, we can cut out the middlemen in the banking and political realms … and prosper.
And as we’ve previously noted about energy:
Bill Gross, Nouriel Roubini, Laurence Kotlikoff, Steve Keen, Michel Chossudovsky, the Wall Street Journal and many others say that our entire economy is a Ponzi scheme.
Former Reagan budget director David Stockton just agreed:
So did a top Russian con artist and mathematician.
Even the New York Times‘ business page asked, “Was [the] whole economy a Ponzi scheme?“
In fact – as we’ve noted for 4 years (and here and here) – the banking system is entirely insolvent. And so are most countries. The whole notion of one country bailing out another country is a farce at this point. The whole system is insolvent.
As we noted last year: Nobel economist Joe Stiglitz pointed out the Ponzi scheme nature of the whole bailout discussion:
Europe’s plan to lend money to Spain to heal some of its banks may not work because the government and the country’s lenders will in effect be propping each other up, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.[The same is true of every other nation.]
“The system … is the Spanish government bails out Spanish banks, and Spanish banks bail out the Spanish government,” Stiglitz said in an interview.
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“It’s voodoo economics,” Stiglitz said in an interview on Friday, before the weekend deal to help Spain and its banks was sealed. “It is not going to work and it’s not working.”
Credit Suisse’s William Porter writes:
“Portugal cannot rescue Greece, Spain cannot rescue Portugal, Italy cannot rescue Spain (as is surely about to become all too abundantly clear), France cannot rescue Italy, but Germany can rescue France.” Or, the credit of the EFSF/ESM, if called upon to provide funds in large size, either calls upon the credit of Germany, or fails; i.e, it seems to us that it probably cannot fund to the extent needed to save the credit of one (and probably imminently two) countries that had hitherto been considered “too big so save” without joint and several guarantees.***As Nouriel Roubini wrote in February:
[For] problems of that magnitude, there simply are not enough resources – governmental or super-sovereign – to go around.
As Roubini wrote in February:Peak Demographics?
“We have decided to socialize the private losses of the banking system.***
Roubini believes that further attempts at intervention have only increased the magnitude of the problems with sovereign debt. He says, “Now you have a bunch of super sovereigns – the IMF, the EU, the eurozone – bailing out these sovereigns.”
Essentially, the super-sovereigns underwrite sovereign debt – increasing the scale and concentrating the problems.
Roubini characterizes super-sovereign intervention as merely kicking the can down the road.
He says wryly: “There’s not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail out the IMF or the Eurozone.” [Others have made the same point.]
But, despite the paper shuffling of debt at the national level – and at the level of supranational entities – reality ultimately intervenes: “So at some point you need restructuring. At some point you need the creditors of the banks to take a hit – otherwise you put all this debt on the balance sheet of government. And then you break the back of government – and then government is insolvent.”
Indeed, population may be the biggest ponzi scheme of all. Specifically – as we’ve pointed out for years – rapidly-aging populations in the developed world will exert a big drag on the economy.
The Global Mail notes:
Half the world, including almost all the developed world, now is reproducing at below replacement level. A generation from now, according to United Nations Population Division projections, less than a quarter of the world’s women – most of them in Africa and south Asia – will be reproducing at above replacement rate. And those UN forecasts are probably on the high side, for reasons we’ll come to later.Indeed, smart curmudgeons like Jeremy Granthan and Chris Martensen think that we have not only “peak” demographics, but also peak resources.
And as the birth rate has plunged in developed nations, and the native-born population has begun to shrink and rapidly age, governments and business have sought to make up the numbers by importing people to prop up their economies. It’s all they know how to do, for our economic system is, at its base, a giant Ponzi scheme, dependent on ever more people producing and consuming ever more stuff.
But what happens if that all stops? What happens when you get an ageing, shrinking population that consumes less?
“The answer to that question is that we don’t know because it’s never happened before,” says Peter McDonald, professor of demography and director of the Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute at the Australian National University.
***
“We’re certainly operating a Ponzi scheme in Australia,” says Dr Bob Birrell, an economist and migration expert from Monash University.
“Our growth is predicated on extra numbers… [and] more of our activity is going into city building and people servicing, which do not directly produce many goods that can be traded in overseas markets.
***
Half the world is facing the problem of low fertility, and Australia, with its massive program of importing people, is providing an extreme example of one approach to the conundrum.
In a nutshell, the problem is this: lower fertility rates mean older, less innovative and productive workforces. More importantly to the Ponzi economic order, older, stable or declining populations consume less. So growth requires either importing people, or exporting stuff, or a combination of the two. Orthodox economics simply can’t cope otherwise.
Europe as a whole has been reproducing at well below replacement rate for close to 40 years. The last period for which UN data showed Europe’s total fertility rate above the replacement rate was 1970-75.
Europe’s contemporary demographics give new meaning to the descriptor ‘the old world’. The continent’s average person is over 40 now. By 2050, if things continue on trend, the average European will be 45.7. If one takes the UN’s “low variant” projection, he/she will be over 50 years of age.
And the low variant now looks closer to the mark. Fertility rates had actually rebounded a little over recent years, the result of a bit of “catch-up” after a shift over several previous decades in which women delayed child-bearing. But the European recession has set fertility rates plunging again.
The recession’s effects will likely linger for decades, in lower rates of earnings and savings, and also in reduced fertility.
***
Last year, Forbes magazine, that most reliable voice of the economic orthodoxy, laid the blame for Europe’s economic decline squarely on its citizens’ failure to reproduce in adequate numbers, in an article headlined What’s Really Behind Europe’s Decline? It’s The Birth Rates, Stupid.
The Forbes piece was unequivocal: the biggest threat to the European Union was its low fertility rate.
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The piece ended with a dire warning that unless Club Med managed to induce people to have more babies, catastrophic economic consequences would flow for all of Europe and maybe the world.
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As Thomas Sobotka, one of the authors of a 2011 study on population trends by the Vienna Institute of Demography, told the Guardian newspaper, massive cuts in social spending would only exacerbate the problem.
“This may prolong the fertility impact of the recent recession well beyond its end. It could lead to a double-dip fertility decline,” he said.
But when it comes to fertility declines, Asia takes the cake.
Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Macau, Hong Kong, and most importantly China currently all have fertility rates lower than those of Europe.
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China’s and Korea’s are about to start falling, if they haven’t already.
“I’m pretty pessimistic about the east-Asian situation,” says McDonald. “I think those countries find it very difficult move in the right direction of supporting work and family, in particular, reducing work hours.
“We are now talking about some 30 per cent of Japanese women not getting married.”
“I saw a couple of people from the Japanese government give a paper recently, essentially accepting this as an inevitability – a low birth rate forever,” he says.
It’s the same all over Asia.
***
Hong Kong has a birth rate of 1.09, which is on track to see its population almost halve in a generation. Taiwan is at 1.10; China, 1.55; Thailand, 1.66; Vietnam, 1.89. Even Indonesia’s fertility is just above replacement rate, at 2.23, and is falling fast. Malaysia and the Philippines are still growing pretty quickly, as are the south-Asian countries, which may give them a competitive edge for a few decades – and a growing export industry of people. But it is not projected to last more than a few decades.
Let’s return to America. The United States also is reproducing at below replacement rate, and its birthrate has declined sharply in recent years.
***
The US birth rate not only fell to its lowest level ever in 2011, but the greatest decline was among immigrant women.
***
In the longer term, the world will have to adjust its economic system to cope with the novel concept of less. Fewer people, less consumption, lowered need for resources, energy, housing, roads, you name it.
There’s HOPE
The above is admittedly depressing. But the reality is that there’s hope.
We can have a very bright future, indeed … if we switch from the status quo to something smarter. For example, see this and this.
For example, we can cut out the middlemen in the banking and political realms … and prosper.
And as we’ve previously noted about energy:
The current paradigm is that energy is produced expensively by governments or large corporations through gigantic projects using enormous amounts of money, materials and manpower. Because energy can only be produced by the big boys, we the people must bow our heads to the powers-that-be. We must pay a lot of our hard-earned money to buy electricity from them, and we can’t question the methods or results of their energy production.
Our life will become much better when we begin to understand that energy is all around us – as an ocean of electromagnetic forces and as a byproduct of other processes in the form of heat, pressure, etc. – and all we need do is learn how to harvest it.
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