Thursday, February 4, 2016

Video: Part 2: Oxfam Says Privatization, Tax Havens Drive Global Inequality to Staggering Levels


http://democracynow.org – Extended web-only interview with Raymond Offenheiser, president of Oxfam America. The group just issued the report, “An Economy …

Via Youtube

上海嚴控燃放鞭炮‧過年娶親不例外

(中國‧上海3日訊)中國人傳統上以爆竹迎新年,但上海今年預計將渡過一個安靜的農曆年。當局禁止燃放鞭炮的範圍擴大,且規定民眾購買煙火爆竹時,需要出示身份證,民警並將上門核對。
    重慶市洋人街景區為了迎接猴年的到來,營造節日氛圍,景區30多位安保人員和部份工作人員換上了“猴”裝,開始在景區內執勤、巡邏。圖為換上“猴”裝的保安們在景區內巡邏。(圖:新華社)
根據新修訂的條例,今年11日起,上海外環線以內區域和外環線以外8類場所不能燃放煙花爆竹,娶親嫁女也不例外。
個人違規燃放鞭炮將被罰人民幣100500元(約64令吉到321令吉),非法儲存煙火爆竹最高可處10萬元(約6.4萬令吉)罰款。
30萬志工巡查
澎湃新聞報道,除夕夜、大年初四和元宵節這3天,上海警方將和30萬名志工一起在街上及社區巡查,勸阻燃放煙火爆竹。



媒體報道,這項條例的目的是維護城市安全及加強環保,官方還鼓勵使用電子鞭炮,移風易俗。
不過,不少網民得悉條例後,都表示反感。有網民打趣道:“怕你製成土炮對付土匪!”,也有網民抱怨指“棺(官)員財產不公開,人民的所有行為倒是都要實名。”
(星洲日報/國際)

【更新】客機爆炸機身現大洞‧一人吸出機外

(索馬里‧摩加迪沙3日訊)恐怖空中飛行事故!索馬里一架載有74人的客機,從首都摩加迪沙機場起飛後僅5分鐘,即發生爆炸起火,右邊機身更炸出一個6呎乘4呎的大洞。
客機安全折返機場
一名全身著火的男乘客被吸出機外,從14千呎高空墮下慘死,另有兩人受輕傷。客機被逼緊急折返機場,幸而最終於20分鐘後安全降落。
當局指不涉及刑事罪行
據當地民航局官員表示,初步調查顯示事件並非涉及刑事罪行。



但機師表示,他認為爆炸是由炸彈引起的。而一名航空專家在觀察機身大洞的照片後表示,破壞力與爆炸裝置引起的破壞情況一致。
2乘客輕傷
索馬里航空局局長奧瑪爾說,飛機安全迫降後,他們發生一名乘客不見了,該乘客的遺體後來找到了。
一名警官表示,民眾在33公里外的巴拉德農莊尋獲一具燒焦的屍體,有目擊者指死者是從飛機上跌下來的。據指他是一名55歲的男子,相信被吸出飛機外。
官員默罕默德表示,有兩名乘客蒙受輕傷。
他表示,這架達洛航空(Daallo)班機原定飛往吉布提,不過從摩加迪沙起飛後數分鐘後被迫降落。
位於貝爾格萊德的《Blic日報》引述64歲的塞爾維亞籍機師沃多皮維奇說:“我認為爆炸是炸彈引起的。慶幸的是,爆炸沒有摧毀飛行儀器,因此我能夠折返並降落在機場。我從未遇過類似這樣的事故。機身穿洞後導致機艙氣壓急跌。謝天謝地,我們最終都平安無事。”
一名前美國運輸安全委員會及航空安全專家戈格利亞表示:“我們尚未掌握爆炸起因,但可以肯定它看起來像是爆炸裝置引起的。”他表示,只有炸彈及金屬增壓爆裂會在飛機側面造成這樣的破洞。
洞口黑煙顯示炸彈爆炸痕跡
戈格利亞說,洞口的黑煙顯示這是炸彈爆炸的痕跡。金屬增壓爆裂並不會產生黑煙。此外,事故發生在飛行高度達到3萬呎之前,因此降低了增壓爆裂的可能性。
不過,民航部門官員表示,初步調查後,當局並無發現任何證據顯示事件涉及刑事罪行。另外國專家亦有加入調查。而索馬里政府則指會繼續調查事件。
涉事客機已經移離跑道,並駛回飛機庫。
駐聯國副大使在機上
爆炸後濃煙大片機體不見
索馬里常駐聯合國副大使庫蘭當時正在客機上。他在臉書貼文說,他當時聽到爆炸聲後,一度除了濃煙外甚麼也看不見。在恢復能見度後,他們驚見有“一大塊”
機體不見了。
庫蘭也在臉書上傳一些乘客戴上氧氣面罩的視頻,不過,有關視頻隨後被刪除了。
火焰吞噬飛機側面
一名稱為阿里的乘客向美聯社稱,他與其他乘客聽到一聲巨響,然後火焰吞噬了飛機側面的一個洞。
阿里說:“我不知道是炸彈還是電擊,但我們在飛機一側聽到巨響。”他未能證實有乘客被氣流吸出飛機的報道。
另一名乘客則指,爆炸發生後機艙氣壓急跌,幸好當時有佩戴安全帶,才不致於被吸出機外。
幸客機延誤致傷亡大減
有英國媒體引述航空業消息指,所幸客機一度出現延誤,令爆炸在較低的高度發生,從而大大減低傷亡數字。
有航空業消息人士指,客機於當日下午延誤了起飛,故此客機還未到最高的航行高度,炸彈就在較低的飛行高度便已爆炸,令機上的乘客有較大機會得以生存。
【本篇內容已在2016-02-04 更新】
(星洲日報/國際)

美:奧巴馬與東盟領袖峰會‧“非針對中國”

(美國‧華盛頓3日訊)美國國務院官員週二表示,奧巴馬總統本月將與東盟領袖召開的峰會,並非“針對中國”。
東盟10國領導人將在本月1516日,遠赴加州安納伯格莊園與奧巴馬舉行會晤。
國務院負責東亞事務的助理國務卿拉塞爾受訪時說:“今次峰會與中國無關,只會涉及美國及東盟。就是說與中國無關,也不會針對中國。”
美國政府近期致力加強與東盟的關係,使其成為區域牽制中國的主力。
拉塞爾說:“東南亞所面臨的挑戰,特別是南海主權及海洋權利既非零和遊戲,也不是中美之間的代理人戰爭。”
另一方面,美國駐菲律賓大使戈德堡週三表示,美國對與菲律賓在南海進行聯合海上巡邏的可能性持開放態度。
(星洲日報/國際)

4千萬爭產案‧法官:商人指通姦扭曲人格‧妻獲2千萬資產

(新加坡3日訊)在新、馬、中、台擁有37家分店家具連鎖店老闆,指老婆與她的好友通姦,為1600萬元(約4730萬令吉)資產與老婆對薄公堂。法官指丈夫不誠實扭曲老婆的人格,判發妻可分得近680萬元(約2千萬令吉)。
根據法庭判詞,這對怨偶於1991年結婚,兩人育有一名現年20歲的兒子,目前是名大學生。兩人的婚姻觸礁,女方提出離婚。
丈夫是名成功商人,是獅城一家著名家具連鎖店的老闆之一,家具店是家族生意,在新加坡、馬來西亞、台灣與中國共擁有37家分行。
其中在本地擁有27家、台灣16家、大馬和中國也各有兩家分行,生意由他和兄弟打理。此外,丈夫也在17家不同公司擔任董事長或經理等職位。
丈夫未如實公佈財產



判詞揭露,丈夫聲稱他原本將每月的收入都存入兩個與妻子的聯名戶口,但他在2011年發現妻子與她的好友通姦,轉而將收入存入自己的私人戶口。兩人關係也從此決裂,為婚姻資產、贍養費及兒子的撫養權等鬧上法庭。
根據判詞,他們公開的總資產高達大約1600萬元,包括現金存款、股票、房產、店屋等等;此外,丈夫還有一些沒有公開的在各地的房產和存款等。
丈夫聲稱老婆沒有收
入,資產都是他的貢獻,他也指老婆與一個好友有不正當的關係,給孩子樹立不好的榜樣,要求分得公開總資產的75%
然而,老婆出示證據顯示她投資有道收入豐厚,也沒證據顯示她與好友通姦。
法官最後裁定丈夫不誠實扭曲老婆的人格,也沒有誠實公開自己的財產,將公開的總資產中的大約680萬元財產包括三個房產和店屋及百萬股票等判給老婆。此外,丈夫在未來5年內需每月支付4500元(約13千令吉)贍養費,並將27萬(約798千令吉)公積金轉給妻子。
(星洲日報/國際)

Federal Reserve Going Back To ZIRP


“逼宮要我噤聲”‧慕克力:下台續發言

(吉打‧亞羅士打3日訊)今日宣佈辭去吉州務大臣職的拿督斯里慕克力說,這次施壓要他辭職的主因是要禁止他發聲,特別是他批評涉及首相的一馬發展有限公司(1MDB)、26億獻金及人民生活負擔加重的消費稅課題。
    慕克力昨日的新聞發佈會獲得逾百名媒體採訪,現場也湧來大批支持者。(圖:星洲日報)
他們(要推翻我)的舉動,也將王室牽扯到巫統內部鬥爭裡。”
慕克里今早召開新聞發佈會宣佈辭職,即時生效,他擔任的吉州巫統主席職交由黨主席拿督斯里納吉決定。
慕克力仍保留阿依淡州議員。他強調不會放棄政治,也不會禁言。
因此,他放話促大家“小心一點”,因為現在已沒有職位,可以毫無忌憚的發言。



被投不信任票不合理
慕克力表示接獲吉州攝政理事會通知,指他在州議會失去大部份國陣及反對黨州議員的支持。
他認為,那些人以他領導州政府的問題對他投不信任票是不合理的,因為人民對他的政策給予正面的回應。
在我宣誓就任州務大臣後,秉持廉政及誠信態度履行責任,未有玷污王室及人民的尊嚴。”
他感謝在任時,吉州蘇丹和攝政理事會給他的勸導,以及州行政議員的配合和輔助。
辭職免影響州行政
慕克力說:“人民的和諧為優先,為了避免政治風波蔓延而影響州行政工作及人民,所以決定辭去州務大臣職,即刻生效。”
他否認之前3度接到辭職信但拒簽的傳言。
至於為何不把此事件帶到州議會表決,他認為在參考霹靂州先例,並認為吉州攝政理事會已召見及聽取國陣及反對黨議員意見,就已足夠。
他不諱言辭職後留有遺憾,例如只擬定5年短期計劃,沒有計劃長期任務,希望各方面未來能進一步加強。
詢及其父親兼前首相敦馬哈迪是否知道他辭職時,慕克力表明還沒有告訴父親,但相信父親會接受。
他戲稱,若不接受也沒有退路,不可能收回辭職聲明。
至於對新任大臣的期許,他戲言希望阿末峇沙宣誓就任後,不要“睡著了”(tidur terlena)。
指納吉掌權巫統續弱化
慕克力也抨擊首相納吉,指納吉一天仍在黨內掌權,巫統將會繼續弱化。
他說,黨中央一年前就有議程開始削弱他在吉州巫統的權力,包括州財政阿都阿茲沒有做好本份,區部主席不出席會議。
黨中央也直接撥款給區部主席,導致州主席地位受影響,其他州屬也面對這個問題。”
與妻母返隆親友慰問
辭職後的慕克力,將於今午345分偕同母親茜蒂哈斯瑪與妻子諾芝達搭機返回吉隆坡。
茜蒂哈斯瑪今日在知知牙也的住家,迎接從達魯阿曼回家的慕克力。許多親友也紛趕抵慰問。
全程微笑宣讀聲明
慕克力今日在2名行政議員即阿米努丁和蘇拉雅耶谷陪同下,在達魯阿曼州政府大廈召開新聞發佈會,出席者包括吉州民政黨主席拿督謝順海。
慕克力宣讀2頁辭職聲明後,接受各語文媒體記者的提問,全程微笑。
新聞發佈會吸引近百名各語文媒體記者採訪,有者專程從吉隆坡前來。
拒絕任副部長
慕克力強調對巫統忠誠不變,但認為巫統須作出大變革,否則恐在全國大選難以招架,導致巫統政治地位削弱。
巫統雖有300萬黨員,但黨員發言管道受限制,一些異議分子遭對付。署理主席和副主席也不能在巫統大會發言,幼稚動作連連,也不稱呼元老如馬哈迪。”
他證實納吉有獻議他出任副部長,但是唯恐這是要他禁言的條件,所以不接受獻議。
(星洲日報)

"It's Probably Nothing": January Truck Orders Collapse 48%

We have previously shown just how bad the situation in the US heavy trucking space - trucks with a gross weight over 33K pounds - was most recently in "US Trucking Has Not Been This Bad Since The Financial Crisis" in which we looked at November data and found, that "Class 8 truck net orders at 16,475, were 59% below a year ago and the lowest level since September 2012.  This was the weakest November order activity since 2009 and was a major disappointment, coming in significantly below expectations.  All of the OEMs, except one, experienced unusually low orders for the month."
For those who missed the proverbial wheels falling of the heavy trucks, so to speak, the charts below do the situation justice:



So with 2015 in the history books, and as we start 2016 where the base effect was supposed to make the annual comps far more palatable, we just got the latest, January data. In short: the drop continues to be one of Great Recession proportions, manifesting in yet another massive 48% collapse in truck orders in the first month of the year as demand appears to have gone in a state of deep hibernation.  From Reuters:
U.S. January Class 8 truck orders fell 48 percent on the year, preliminary data from freight transportation forecaster FTR showed, indicating that 2016 could be another weak year for truck makers.

FTR estimated that orders for the heavy trucks that move goods around America's highways totaled 18,062 units in January. This follows on from a full-year decline in 2015 of nearly 25 percent to 284,000 units from 276,000.
"It is not looking to be a strong year," for the market, FTR chief operating officer Jonathan Starks said in a statement. 

Amid uncertainty over U.S. economic growth and a lackluster performance for retailers in the fourth quarter, trucking companies have been holding back on buying new models
As a reminder, unlike trains, which one can say are used to transport oil and coal, Class 8 trucks make up the backbone of U.S. trade infrastructure and logistics: what they represent is both domestic and global trade. Or in this the devastating collapse thereof.
Should one be concerned by this precipitous drop? Absolutely not: as the Federal Reserve would certainly say "it's probably nothing" and blame it on the weather.

Is It Time To Panic About Bank? Remember The German Bank With $75 TRILLION IN DERIVATIVES? TROUBLE COULD SPREAD TO U.S. BANKS. Kyle Bass – China Banks Months Away From ‘Danger Territory’

Is It Time To Panic About Deutsche Bank?
Back in April 2013, we showed for the first time something few were aware of, namely that “At $72.8 Trillion, The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World” was not JPMorgan as some had expected, but Germany’s banking behemoth, Deutsche bank.
Some brushed it off, saying one should never look at gross derivative exposure but merely net, to which we had one simple response: net immediately becomes gross when just one counterparty in the collateral chains fails – case in point, the Lehman and AIG failures and the resulting scramble to bailout the entire world which cost trillions in taxpayer funds.
We then followed it up one year later with “The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank’s $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP.”
Then, last June, we asked the most pointed question yet: Is Deutsche Bank The Next Lehman?only this time it wasn’t just the bank’s gargantuan balance sheet risk shown below that was dominant…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-03/it-time-panic-about-deutsche-bank
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/728-trillion-presenting-bank-biggest-derivative-exposure-world-hint-not-jpmorgan
European banks near ‘terrifying’ crisis
already being stretched by global worries & issues within the banking system. TROUBLE COULD SPREAD TO U.S. BANKS.

With European banks sitting at multiyear lows, one widely followed market watcher said some of the biggest ones could go bankrupt.
Former hedge fund manager and Goldman Sachs alumnus Raoul Pal said his scenario is one most investors aren’t looking at right now.
Pal said the banking issues have the potential to overtake risks associated with China’s growth slowdown and cheap oil.
“So many of these [bank stocks] are falling so sharply. I think people haven’t even caught up with what is going on, and that really concerns me,” the founder of Global Macro Investor told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday. “I look at the big long-term share charts of them, and I think this looks very terrifying indeed. I have not seen anything like this for a long time.”
For Pal, negative interest rates are the chief reason why the bank stocks are in trouble. He said European banks have a tougher time coping in the environment than U.S. banks.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/european-banks-near-terrifying-crisis-raoul-pal.html
Kyle Bass – China banks months away from ‘danger territory’
China’s banking system has grown to $34.5 trillion, more than three times the country’s GDP. The country is due for a loss cycle as cracks begin to show in its economy.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/kyle-bass-china-banks-months-away-from-danger-territory.html
UBS Bank Shares Plunge As Rich Investors Withdraw Money
Swiss bank UBS saw its shares slide on Tuesday on news that investors had pulled billions out of its division serving wealthy clients
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SWITZERLAND_EARNS_UBS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME%26TEMPLATE=DEFAULT%26CTIME=2016-02-02-06-56-54
Some brushed it off, saying one should never look at gross derivative exposure but merely net, to which we had one simple response: net immediately becomes gross when just one counter party in the collateral chains fails – case in point, the Lehman and AIG failures and the resulting scramble to bailout the entire world which cost trillions in taxpayer funds.
We then followed it up one year later with “The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank’s $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-28/elephant-room-deutsche-banks-75-trillion-derivatives-20-times-greater-german-gdp
Then, just last June, we asked the most pointed question yet: “Is Deutsche Bank The Next Lehman?” only this time it wasn’t just the bank’s gargantuan balance sheet risk shown below…
And let us not forget our domino friend :)

Douche bank in Ohio Supreme Court in re: foreclosure fraud (video arguments)
Case No. 2014-0791 Deutsche Bank National Trust Company as Trustee v. Glenn E. Holden et al.
http://www.ohiochannel.org/MediaLibrary/Media.aspx?fileId=147997
ISSUES:
•In order to have standing, must a party seeking to foreclose have an interest in both the mortgage and the promissory note, or just an interest in either the note or the mortgage?
•When a promissory note is discharged in bankruptcy, does a party seeking to foreclose only need to show it has an interest in the mortgage to have standing, or must it have both an interest in the note and mortgage?
Oh look! Another ($3.1 billion) lawsuit against Deutsche Bank:
From Reuters at 4:33 EST today:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-lawsuit-idUSKCN0VC2NY
Per Saumya Vaishampayan at the WSJ blog today at 3:30 EST:
“Puts protecting against a 33% fall in U.S.-listed Deutsche Bank shares by April were particularly popular Wednesday. Analysts at Susquehanna Financial Group characterized the trading in Deutsche Bank options as “crash put buying.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/03/investors-buy-crash-protection…

Deutsche Bank The Next Lehman (X 5)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/deutsche-bank-next-lehman
Deutsche Bank’s troubles unmask bigger risks
http://www.afr.com/markets/deutsche-banks-troubles-unmask-bigger-risks-2…

The last time I looked, the US Banks were not any better.  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/five-banks-account-96-250-trillion-outstanding-derivative-exposure-morgan-stanley-sitting-fx-de. In fact, the derivitive exposure for the top 25 banks in the US topped 300 trillion from my understanding.

Look out below.  The banks are the Elephants in the Room
They got the exposures.  The Primary Exposures.  Then the derivatives.  Then the derivatives on the derivatives.  And the counter-party risk on counter-party risks and NO NOTHING OFFSETS/NETS because each contract is a one off.  (Well, for all intents and purposes)
There are the beys.  The best on the bets.  The leveraged bets on the bets.  The leveraged leveraged bets on the bets that are leveraged with all sorts of untold counter-party risks inside each of the bets.
Good Luck and Good Night
BTW.  A bud of mine.  Semi-retired senior guy at a major WS firm.  He’s exposed.  Big time.  To the firm and his own portfolio.  He’s scared to death and perhaps near paralysis.  And this is a guy who knows what the fucks going on.  Greed, hubris, denial and so on.  The bad stuff happens slowly at first, nobody believes it.  It accelerates… it’s transitory.  Pretty soon, serious damage is done.  Then it appears too late accompanied by hope… empty hope …. And after a while nights become sleepless.  People become irritable and irrational.
Get safe  The best portfolio is the safest portfolio.  The safest portfolio is a boring portfolio.  Take the day off.  Go golfing or see a movie.  Watch the world closely.  Walk through a mall… look at how the traffic is and how many are carrying packages.  Breathe in the air.  Meditate.  Let it go.  You’re safe and will be whole.  You’re being taken care of.

TF

Combine Negative Interest Rates With An Inverted Yield Curve And The Result Is A Lot Of Dead Banks — And Maybe Another Lehman Moment

by John Rubino
Once upon a time, falling interest rates were great for banks. A lower cost of capital gave lenders access to cheap raw material while causing borrowers to clamber for what banks were selling. Large profits usually ensued.
But not now. Rates have fallen past the banks’ sweet spot to levels that just don’t work. Borrowers appear to be spooked rather than energized and trading desks are imploding amid “catastrophic volatility“. See German bond yields collapse below 50bps for first time ever and UBS’s investment bank earnings decline 63% on equities trading.
And now yield curves are inverting — that is, long rates are falling below short rates, which means banks’ borrowing costs (the short end of the yield curve) are starting exceed their lending revenue (the long end of the curve). See Japan’s yield curve faces further pounding amid BoJ aftershock and US Treasury yield curve inverts.
To add a little spice to the toxic stew, capital controls are coming back into style:

Germany proposes new cash ban and capital controls as Europe rushes towards NIRP

(Examiner) – Last Friday, Japan was the first major economy to cross the ‘Rubicon’ by implementing negative interest rates (NIRP) in an attempt to force their people to spend, and slow deflation as the 3rd largest economy moves into recession. However, in this Japan is not an island, with several other nations already preparing to do the same to protect their diminishing economies.And in all of this there is one surprising country that appears to also be preparing for NIRP as on Feb. 3, coalition group of German legislators introduced a bill to limit the use of cash, and to ban the use of the 500 Euro bill in personal and non-bank transactions.
The significance of this is that when a central bank implements policies that make holding your money in a bank a liability, then the natural recourse is for depositors and account holders to simply take it out and move their wealth into assets that are either outside their nation’s currency, or into commodities such as gold and silver which provide no benefit to an economy that desperately needs its people to spend and create inflation and growth.
Not surprisingly, US bank stocks are getting whacked. As of 9am on Wednesday Feb 3:
Bank stocks Feb 16
Bank of America (BAC) stands out as especially cringe-worthy, having fallen from north of $18 per share to below $13 in just a few weeks:
BofA stock Feb 16
What does all this mean? The broad-strokes answer is that these huge, nearly-omnipotent entities that have dominated and defined the world’s economic and political landscape may finally be receding towards a more reasonable level of power. One way to gauge this is by the rhetoric coming out of the current presidential candidates, all of whom have decided that it’s not just safe, but profitable to bash Wall Street. Dimon, Blankfein, et al are clearly not the bullies they once were.
More immediately it means there’s a new black swan in the sky. As a group the world’s biggest banks are leveraged to an extent that probably has the authors of the Glass-Steagall Act spinning in their graves. The notional value of their over-the-counter derivatives books dwarfs the global economy, while their exposure to now-moribund sections of the oil and gas industry guarantees massive write-offs in the year ahead. The question isn’t whether the big banks will report huge losses, but whether one of them will be destroyed in the process, giving us another Lehman Moment.

Luxury Retailer Sinks Into The Quagmire.

Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter
Brick-and-mortar retailers are sinking into a quagmire – even luxury retailers, like Tiffany and Company.
So, sure, they’re still looking pretty good when compared to the oil and gas industry, which is in a depression, laying off well-paid people, from director-level engineers to roughnecks. Contractors are out of work. Revenues are plunging. Losses are piling up. Cash is running out. Bankruptcies and debt restructurings are now a common occurrence. The junk-bond bubble that funded the US drilling boom is imploding. Banks are starting to recognize losses on their loans. But the sector has been through this before. It’s temporary. When the price of oil rises again, the survivors and new players will thrive, hire, and expand.
That’s not the case with brick-and-mortar retailers.
But it’s a slow process. Some bigger operations have already gone bankrupt recently or have defaulted on their debts. Junk bonds that fund much of the industry are swooning. Liquidity is drying up. And many private equity firms that bought these retailers during boom times and loaded them up with debt are now stuck with them [Defaults and Restructuring Next for Retailers].
Among the list of brick-and-mortar retailers to warn of crummy holiday sales is luxury jeweler and specialty retailer Tiffany and Company. It reported this morning that sales during the holiday period fell 3% on a constant-currency basis: 5% in the Americas and 6% in the Asia-Pacific region. Sales at stores that were open at least a year dropped 5%. And it lowered its guidance.
So it will do what American companies do best: There will be an undisclosed number of job cuts, and there will be “occupancy reductions” at its corporate office. This cost cutting will cost the company about 4 cents per share in the current quarter.
Shares fell 5.1% today to $64.22. They’ve plunged 41% from their all-time high of $108.68 at the end of December 2014.
Scrambling to not fall too far behind reality, analysts unleashed a hail of downgrades, including Cowen & Co. which slashed its price target from $90 to $75 and Nomura which chopped it from $100 to $90.
Tiffany is selling to the privileged, to the beneficiaries of QE’s “wealth effect” in the US and around the globe. It’s selling to people who benefited from the astounding debt-funded booms in Asia and elsewhere over the past few years. Has the recent stock market rout dented their purchasing power, or their willingness to splurge?
Tiffany blamed the “pressure from the strong US dollar”; it blamed “foreign tourist spending” at its stores in the US; it blamed “restrained consumer spending tied to challenging and uncertain global economic conditions.”
But this has been Tiffany’s song and dance for a while. A year ago, on January 12, 2015, Tiffany’s shares plunged 14% and three days later hit the $85-range, down 21% from their all-time high two weeks earlier.
The problem back then? It had reported  lousy holiday sales; it had lowered its outlook; it had blamed “significant headwinds from the stronger US dollar” along with “other global economic pressures.” Copy and paste.
But wait… Stock markets were booming back then. The China bubble was in full swing. Asian millionaires were printed on an hourly basis. European stocks were on steroids. Even the S&P 500 was still trudging toward its high.
But it’s been getting tougher for brick-and-mortar retailers, and a slew of them warned since November that holiday sales would be crummy, and some warned more recently that holiday sales were in fact crummy. Some, including Gap and Wal-Mart, are shuttering some of their stores.
Tiffany faces some jewelry-industry issues: “Jewelry is no longer at the top of the Christmas list,” Neil Saunders, CEO of research firm Conlumino, wrote in a note to clients, cited by Business Insider. “For a brand like Tiffany, where lavish gifting is an important driver of buying, such a trend is distinctly unhelpful.”
There are Tiffany-specific issues, including that it faces a “more competitive environment for jewelry and the rise of other brands,” Saunders said. “Against this backdrop Tiffany has lost some of its relevance, especially to more moderate-spending shoppers.”
Then there are issues all retailers struggle with: Millennials, the largest demographic these days, tend to spend more on experiences and less on things, including expensive baubles. And retailers are facing strung-out American consumers. But Tiffany isn’t actually targeting strung-out consumers. It’s targeting the wealthy.
And here’s the problem for all our beleaguered brick-and-mortar retailers: online sales this holiday season jumped 12.7% to a record $83 billion, Adobe Systems reported today. And when push came to shove right before Christmas, with delivery perhaps uncertain, the buy-online-pick-up-in-store option kicked in. So it’s not like Americans have stopped shopping. They might shop a tad less, but they’re shopping increasingly online.
That’s a structural problem that is gnawing its way into all retailers’ earnings reports. It will never go away. It will only get worse. So they drag out the “strong dollar,” “global headwinds,” “warm weather,” or whatever other less indigestible excuses they can find. And companies can simply copy and paste last year’s excuses into the next earnings warning rather than admitting that online sales are gradually but relentlessly eating their lunch.
So with impeccable timing – the very morning the Commerce Department reported declining retail sales – Wal-Mart Stores disclosed in an SEC filing that it was “committed to growing,” but was “being disciplined about it.” Read…Wal-Mart Rubs Salt on Deepening Retail Wounds

Big banks are yelling at their clients: SELL EVERYTHING

by Secular Investor
selling shares
Royal Bank of Scotland warns his clients for a “cataclysmic year”, a deflationary global crisis with oil down to $16 a barrel and a stock market correction with a fifth. J.P. Morgan advises for the first time in 7 years to sell shares on the bounce instead of buy the dip.
RBS credit team sais all alarm bells are ringing. They see the same stress alerts before the Lehman Brothers crisis in 2008. They said in a client note:
“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,”
Both global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings, and uncharted waters given that debt ratios have reached record highs. China is ready for a huge correction and it will snowball the rest of the world.
selling shares S&P 500
Brent oil prices will continue to slide after breaking through a key technical level at $34.40, with a “bear flag” and “Fibonacci” signals pointing to a floor of $16. OPEC doesn’t seem to find the answer to the economic slowdown in Asia.
Beside oil prices, bond rates will also fall to new lows. RBS predicts a 0,16% rate on the German Bund in a flight to safety. Negative rates on the 10-year Bund is even possible when deflation persist. And the ECB will lower short-term rate to -0,70% in an attempt to fight deflation.
US Treasuries will fall to rock-bottom levels in sympathy, hammering hedge funds that have shorted US bonds in a very crowded “reflation trade”.

J.P. Morgan: selling shares on the rally

J.P. Morgan also send a note to his clients advising to sell stocks on any bounce. This is the first time in 7 years they advise selling shares:
“Our view is that the risk-reward for equities has worsened materially. In contrast to the past seven years, when we advocated using the dips as buying opportunities, we believe the regime has transitioned to one of selling any rally,” said Mislav Matejka, an equity strategist at J.P. Morgan.
There are not only technical issues for the stock market, but also fundamental reason to sell. Fourth quarter results will probably be the worst since the financial crisis. They won’t save the stock market this time.
Further adding to the grim outlook is the slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which pushed J.P. Morgan’s profit-margin proxy — the gap between pricing power and the wage costs — into negative territory in the fourth quarter for the first time since 2008.
Zwakke olieprijs
The positive correlation between oil prices and earnings on top of the sustained gains in the U.S. dollar — which has an inverse correlation to results — will also weigh on the market.

And just Like That US National Debt Over 19 Trillion


Food Prices Skyrocket Across Canada: Broccoli 400%, Celery 600%, Strawberries 1200%

(Jeff Nielson)  I spend most of my time dealing with U.S. economic lies simply because it’s much easier to make my analytical points. There is a lot more data, it’s splashed all over the place, and (usually) the lies are even bigger South of the Border, which makes the analytical point more vivid.
However, in the month of December, the prices for fresh produce (in Vancouver) spiked in the month of December at the highest rate I have ever seen in my life, almost across the board. Prices rose for most fresh produce by between 10% and 30% IN ONE MONTH, with some of the prices increase even larger.
– broccoli from $3/lb to $4/lb, a 33% increase (at the cheaper supermarkets)
– celery from $2/lb to $3/lb, a 50% increase
– strawberries from $4/lb to $8/lb, a 100% increase
But we’re used to seeing inflation numbers expressed as annualized figures, so let’s convert those monthly numbers to annual numbers
broccoli – 400% inflation
celery – 600% inflation
strawberries – 1200% inflation
Now obviously I do not expect the numbers to rise again next month, or even the month after. So I won’t go “Chicken Little” here, and claim that hyperinflation has already arrived in Canada. But, the food inflation rate in Canada is rising EXPONENTIALLY, overall. It was roughly 20% per year, then roughly 30% per year, and (with even one or two more price-shocks) we could easily be looking at a FOOD INFLATION RATE in CANADA of 50%.
Now the lies:
Cost of food in Canada increased 3.70 percent in December of 2015 over the same month in the previous year. Food Inflation in Canada averaged 3.98 percent from 1951 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 20.18 percent in July of 1978 and a record low of -7.14 percent in December of 1952. Food Inflation in Canada is reported by the Statistics Canada.
Now lets compare the lies to the Truth (as evidenced by my grocery receipts). Even if we assume that all other grocery spending is flat, produce spending alone accounts for a large portion of every shopping dollar.
I’ve gotten to know the manager quite well, at the supermarket where I do most of my shopping. He tells me that I’m not alone in having switched away from chemical-filled, GMO-polluted packaged foods, and that a large portion of shoppers now exhibit that similar pattern. From watching other shoppers, I think it’s relatively safe to say that those who do not shop in this pattern are either older people (set in their ways) or people who are simply too poor to shop healthier.
For a produce-heavy food basket, in Vancouver, in the month of December, overall prices rose at least 10% (and looking at my own grocery bills, it was more likely 15%). We’re forced to eat more fruits and vegetables, because of EXPONENTIALLY RISING MEAT PRICES. Thus an explosion in prices for fresh produce will have a major impact on most (healthy) shoppers.
Even a 10% rise (in one month) translates to an annual, overall, food inflation rate in December of 120%. And it’s hard to believe that prices were not rising at a similar rate in much/most of Canada. Now back to the lies.
Cost of food in Canada increased 3.70 percent in December of 2015…reaching an all time high of 20.18 percent in July of 1978.
120% versus 3.7%That is a Big Lie. It just goes to show that in 2016, we here in Canada can now lie like the Americans…

Why switch to Windows 10 or a Mac when you can use Linux Mint 17.3 instead?

Linux Mint 17.3 is the best Linux desktop operating system and it might be the best PC operating system, period, for you.

My buddy David Gewirtz recently wrote about the question of whether you should move from Windows 7 to Windows 10 or a Mac. I have another suggestion: Linux. Specifically Linux Mint 17.3, Rosa, with the Cinnamon desktop.
linux-mint-17-3.png
Linux Mint 17.3 is a great replacement for Windows 7. In fact, it's a great desktop operating system period. sjvn
Yes, I'm serious. I use all the above desktops -- yes I'm a Windows 7 and 10 user as well as a Linux guy -- and for people I think Mint 17.3 makes a great desktop.
I've been using Mint as my main Linux desktop for years now. Unlike some desktops I could name -- cough, Windows 8, cough -- Linux Mint has never had a flop. Every year that goes by, this operating system keeps getting better. The other desktops? Not so much.
Let's take a closer look.at Windows 7 vs. Linux Mint 17.3
UI Differences
There's really not much. While it's even easier for a Windows XP user to move to Mint than a Windows 7 user, any Windows user won't have any trouble picking up Linux Mint with Cinnamon. There's a Start Menu and settings are easy to find.
I regard Cinnamon 2.8 as the ultimate Window, Icon, Menu, Pointer (WIMP) interface. Is it ideal for tablets or smartphones? No. Is it perfect for long-time PC users? Yes.
Cinnamon does add some nice features. For example, if you mouse over the Window list, you'll now see a thumbnail for each application. It also has improved performance, system tray status indicators, and music and power applets.
What I like best about Cinnamon is that it doesn't get in the way. There's no learning curve. You may have never used Linux in your life but you can just sit down and start opening directories, running applications, and modify your PC's settings.
One small feature I like a lot, since I always run multiple workspaces, is that the workspace switcher applet now shows a visual representation of what's running in each workspace.
Don't like Cinnamon? Unlike any version of Windows, Linux Mint comes with many different desktops. These include KDE, MATE and Xfce. Find one you like and enjoy,
Application Selection
It's true that Linux doesn't have as many application choice as Windows does. But, how many applications do you really need in 2016? I do most of my work these days on the cloud with software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications. These apps work just as well on Chrome, my favorite Web browser, on Mint as they do on any other desktop.
That said, there are many excellent Linux desktop programs. For example, instead of Microsoft Office I use LibreOffice 5. I don't use it because it's free, although most Linux desktop applications won't cost you a cent, but because it's an excellent office suite in its own right.
I also use Evolution instead of Outlook for e-mail and GIMP instead of Photoshop for my basic graphic editing needs. The bottom line is that are many great Linux programs that you can use in place of Windows appliations.
Are there some Windows programs that you can't live without? Well, you don't have to live without them.
There are two ways to run Windows programs on Linux. One is to use CodeWeaver's CrossOver Linux. This program enables you to run many popular Windows applications on Linux. Supported Windows applications include Microsoft Office (from Office 97 to Office 2010), Quicken, and some versions of Adobe Photoshop.
The application you absolutely must have won't work with CrossOver? Then run it on a virtual machine (VM) program such as Oracle's VirtualBox.
I use both methods and they work well.
Mobile Ecosystem Compatibility
I don't care what some people say, Windows Phone is dead to me. And, pretty much everyone else.
Mint, however, is a pure desktop play. Yes, Android is Linux, but it runs in parallel with the desktop Linux distribution. That may change as Android creeps toward the desktop, but we're not there yet.
Ubuntu, which is Mint's foundation Linux distribution, parent company Canonical is working hard on making its same code base work on PCs, smartphones, and tablets. So, eventually, you may be running Mint on smartphones. I'm not holding my breath.
If you want one operating system family on all your devices, don't waste your time -- for now -- on either Linux or Windows. Just go ahead and buy an iPhone and a Mac and be done with it.
Reliability
This is not even a conversation.

Step-by-step instructions

Here's a step-by-step guide to get Windows XP running on an Oracle VirtualBox-based virtual machine on Linux Mint
While Windows 7 is far more stable than any other version of Windows, I haven't had Linux Mint ever -- ever -- stop working.
If you want a desktop that can take a licking and keep ticking, you want Linux, not Windows or Mac OS X.
Security
Really? Do you even have to ask?
Every lousy day a new piece of Windows malware shows up. Windows is more secure than it once was, but it's still easy to bust.
Linux, on the other hand, despite the garbage you read about Linux viruses and such, is almost never sucessfully attacked.
Oh, yes, Linux has been broken into multiple times. But, in almost every case, the attack relies on a user with super-user priviledges working hand in glove with an attacker to break in. If a system administrator installs malware who's really to blame for the cracked computer? The operasting system or the incompetent system manager? I know which one I'd be kicking out of my office.
Upgrade Cost
Windows 10 is usually free now -- even if you don't actually want it. Micrsoft continues to find new and interesting ways to shove it down your throat such aa making Windows 10 a recommended update.
Mint, though, was free when it began, it's free now, and will always be free. If you decide a particular version of Mint is the cat's meow, you can keep using it until the bits fall off the hard drive because of rust.
Switching Costs
Windows 10 can run on most newer Windows 7 systems without any fuss. On the other hand, I can run Mint on Windows XP systems. Give me 512MBs of RAM, and I'm in business with Mint.
Mind you, I'd much rather have 2GBs, but you really can run Mint on pretty much any hardware hiding out in your office's back room.
The real cost will be in traning and applications. As I mentioned earlier, however, Mint doesn't have much of a learning curve. As for applications, almost all Linux programs are free. If, as many offices do now, you realy on SaaS apps for producivity you won't see one thin dime more in software migration costs.
Directory Integration
What's that you say? You use Active Directory (AD) for system management and supporting it is a must? No problem.
You just install BeyondTrust's PowerBroker, formerly Likewise, and in a few minutes your Mint machines will be in your AD forest. Next question?
The Bottom Line
Linux Mint is an excellent Windows 7 replacement. I've used it for years now and I've found it to be the best desktop out there.
Is it better than Windows 10? I think so. It's certainly more stable and secure.
Should you move to it? I recommend you try it for yourself. Like all desktop Linux distributions, it's easy to try and it's free. Just download a copy of Mint, 64-bit Cinnamon would be my pick, and install it. If you're installing Mint on a system with UEFI Secure Boot, you may have to jump through a few hoops. I say "may" because neither I nor J.A. Watson have had any trouble with it.
Once you're done, I think you'll soon find that Mint is a great replacement for Windows 7.
Enjoy!

No Health Insurance Penalty now $695

Anyone with no coverage is going to be hit hard this tax season. Originally it was $95. What a great fucking scam you muslim loser. Blame the supreme court that sold out america. HOW CAN YOU MANDATE SOMEONE HAVING COVERAGE AND FINE THEM?
Straight from the official government website.
$347.50 per child under 18
Maximum: $2,085

The fee for not having health insurance in 2016
The fee is calculated 2 different ways – as a percentage of your household income, and per person. You’ll pay whichever is higher.
Percentage of income
2.5% of household income
Maximum: Total yearly premium for the national average price of a Bronze plan sold through the Marketplace
Per person
$695 per adult
$347.50 per child under 18
Maximum: $2,085

Penalize people that work that can’t afford the coverage to give to losers that sit on their ass and get the free coverage. Maybe just maybe one day this government will collapse on the weight of their own stupidity and corruption.

You cannot force someone to own a product, especially a govt product.
AC

Wells Fargo is collapsing because of its HUGE exposure to oil & gas companies

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) has the largest exposure to loans to energy companies among major U.S. lenders, a report from Raymond James said, amid concerns that banks may have to set aside more money to cover bad loans to the industry.
The bank also topped the list with the biggest exposure to energy companies whose public debt was trading less than 35 percent of par, the brokerage said on Thursday.
Wells Fargo was followed by Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), Citigroup Inc (C.N), Comerica Inc (CMA.N) and BB&T Corp (BBT.N).
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usbanks-research-idUSKCN0RO29220150924
West Virginia Woman Sues Wells Fargo Over Alleged Home Loan Modification Misrepresentations
In early 2015, she contacted the company about modifying her loan. At that point, a rep for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage instructed her not to make payments while the modification was being processed.
Relying on the information from the rep, the woman stopped payment, while providing all necessary paperwork for the modification.
In June 2015, Wells Fargo re-sent the woman a packet requesting duplicate documents. The following month, the woman says she began receiving debt collection calls.
When the woman called Wells Fargo about the collection calls, she was told that her account was mistakenly removed from the modification program and placed in foreclosure.
West Virginia Woman Sues Wells Fargo Over Alleged Home Loan Modification Misrepresentations
Wells Fargo & Co, No.3 U.S. bank by assets
* “At current price levels, we would expect to have a higher oil and gas losses in 2016.”
Morgan Stanley, No.6 U.S. bank by assets
* “We’ve seen an increase in negative marks within corporate loan book, focus is around energy.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-21/what-big-banks-say-about-their-energy-exposure
Wells Fargo to pay $1.2 billion for bad mortgages
Wells Fargo & Co. said Wednesday that it has agreed to pay $1.2 billion to settle a long-running suit that accused the company of “reckless” lending and leaving a federal insurance program to pick up the tab.
The agreement settles civil charges with the U.S. Justice Department, two U.S. attorneys and the Department of Housing and Urban Development
The government sued Wells Fargo in 2012, accusing the U.S. mortgage lender of engaging in “regular practice of reckless origination and underwriting” of government-backed loans. The action was one of several brought under the Federal False Claims Act against a lender accused of bilking the Federal Housing Administration, which has historically backed loans to first-time buyers and those with low incomes.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wells-fargo-to-pay-12-billion-for-bad-mortgages-2016-02-03?link=MW_home_latest_news

Ford To Cut Hundreds Of Jobs In UK And Germany

The US car maker is cutting costs across Europe but production workers will be spared, with admin and marketing staff hit.

Alan Mulally, the man credited with rescuing the US carmaker Ford is leaving the company.

Car maker Ford is to shed hundreds of jobs in the UK and Germany as part of a programme to save $200m (£138m) a year.
The group said it was launching a voluntary redundancy programme as it looked to slash costs across its European business, in the face of mounting regulatory costs.
It comes after Ford recently revealed that its European operation had returned to profit for the first time in four years in 2015.
Production and product development workers will not be affected by the job cuts. The company said they were mainly likely to go in administration and marketing.
Ford no longer makes cars in Britain but still employs 14,000 workers in the country. Plants in Dagenham and Bridgend make car parts and there are also sites in Dunton in Essex, Daventry in Northamptonshire, and a head office at Warley in Essex. The company employs 53,000 people in Europe.
Jim Farley, head of Ford's European, Middle East and Africa business, said: "In the past three years, Ford of Europe has improved its business in all areas and moved from deep losses to a $259m (£179m) profit in 2015. This is a good first step.
"We are absolutely committed to accelerating our transformation, taking the necessary actions to create a vibrant business that's solidly profitable in both good times and down cycles.
"We are creating a far more lean and efficient business that can deliver healthy returns and earn future investment.
"Our job is to make our vehicles as efficiently as possible, spending every dollar in a way that serves customers' needs and desires, and creating a truly sustainable, customer-focused business."
Ford has already shut three car plants in western Europe in 2013 and reached cost-saving agreement with unions in Germany and said that it was continuing to "enhance its cost efficiency and manufacturing capacity utilisation".
Its latest announcement on jobs involves what the company calls a "voluntary separation programme".
Meanwhile, Ford is also boosting its product line in Europe with seven new and updated vehicles being launched this year.
Hybrid and electric vehicles are to be introduced in Europe by 2020 as part of Ford's previously-announced $4.5bn (£3.1bn) investment in electrified vehicles.

New Law In London Would Fine Homeless £1,000 For Sleeping Outside Or “Loitering”

homeless LondonBy John Vibes
The homeless people in Hackney, London are facing expulsion from the street due to a new law will allow the police to give out fines and other legal penalties to homeless people who are found loitering, begging and sleeping in commercial places.
This “Public Space Protection Order” which was introduced by the council of Hackney will place a fine of £1000 on homeless activities. The order has been met with numerous criticisms, with many pointing out that the new laws effectively outlaw homelessness.
Matt Downie of homelessness charity Crisis, one of the major opponents of this legislation, said that the homeless population in London has been victimized enough.

“Rough sleepers deserve better than to be treated as a nuisance – they may have suffered a relationship breakdown, a bereavement or domestic abuse. Those who sleep on the streets are extremely vulnerable and often do not know where to turn for help. These individuals need additional support to leave homelessness behind, and any move to criminalize sleeping rough could simply create additional problems to be overcome,” Downie said.
A similar scenario was supposed to happen in Oxford, but during the consultation process, there was so much outcry from the local population that the government was forced to pull back on their proposal. In the case of Hackney, there was not a single consultation before the policy was introduced.
The policy has been largely rejected by people in Hackney, and there have been thousands of people to sign petitions that ask for the ban to be lifted. However, it is not clear if the city has any intention of paying attention to these people.
We have covered many other instances of homelessness being criminalized in recent months. As we reported just a few weeks ago, that homeless people and supporters in Sacramento were protesting a recent ordinance that makes it illegal for them to camp in the city. Many of them were camped out in front of city hall for the past month and are demanding a reversal of the camping ban. Soon after, police invaded the encampment in riot gear and made several arrests.
In another story, we recently covered a homeless man was arrested in Fairfax Virginia this week after police discovered a home that he made for himself in a local park.

This article (http://www.trueactivist.com/new-law-in-london-would-fine-homeless-1000-for-sleeping-outside-or-loitering/New Law In London Would Fine Homeless £1,000 For Sleeping Outside Or “Loitering”) is free and open source. You have permission to republish this article under a Creative Commons license with attribution to the author and TrueActivist.com.
John Vibes is an author and researcher who organizes a number of large events including the Free Your Mind Conference. He also has a publishing company where he offers a censorship free platform for both fiction and non-fiction writers. You can contact him and stay connected to his work at his Facebook page. You can purchase his books, or get your own book published at his website www.JohnVibes.com.