There’s a meme going around that the refugee crisis in Europe (the
largest since World War II) is part of a secret plot to subvert the
West.
I completely understand why the locals in any country wouldn’t be happy
about waves of foreigners pouring in. Especially if they’re poor,
unskilled, and not likely to assimilate.
It leads to huge problems. Infrastructure gets strained. More people
are sucking at the teat of the welfare system. The unwelcome newcomers
compete for bottom-of-the-ladder jobs. Things easily turn nasty and then
turn violent.
But the idea that the refugee crisis in Europe is part of a hidden
agenda - rather than a predictable outcome - strikes me as strange. And
it’s a notion that conveniently deflects blame away from the people and
factors that deserve it.
Interventions Destabilize the Middle East
The civil war in
Syria has turned the country into a refugee-maker.
Syria’s neighbors have reached their physical limit on their ability to absorb refugees.
That’s one of the reasons so many are heading to the West.
Lebanon
has received over 1 million Syrian refugees. That’s an enormous number
for a country with a population of only 4 million - a 25% increase.
Jordan and
Turkey also have millions of Syrian refugees. They’re saturated.
The number of refugees heading to the West, by contrast, is in the hundreds of thousands. So far.
But it’s not just Syria that’s sending refugees. Many more come from Iraq and
Afghanistan, two other countries shattered by bungled Western military interventions.
Then there are the refugees from Libya. A country the media and
political establishment would rather forget because it represents
another disastrous military decision.
Actually, it’s not just Libyan refugees. It’s refugees from all of
Africa who are using Libya as a transit point to reach Europe.
Before his overthrow by NATO, Muammar Gaddafi had an agreement with
Italy, which is directly to Libya’s north, across the Mediterranean Sea.
Gaddafi agreed to prevent refugees heading for Europe from using Libya
as a transit point. It was an arrangement that worked. So it’s no
shocker that when NATO helped a coalition of ambitious rebels overthrow
the Gaddafi government, the refugee floodgates opened.
When there’s war, there are refugees. It’s a predictable outcome.
It’s like kicking a bees’ nest and being surprised that bees fly out.
Nobody should be surprised when that happens. And nobody should be
surprised that people are fleeing war zones in Libya, Syria, Iraq, and
Afghanistan.
If Western governments didn’t want a refugee crisis, they shouldn’t
have been so eager to topple those governments and destabilize those
countries. The refugees should camp out in the backyards of the
individuals who run those governments.
I also have to mention the Saudis. They were very much involved in the
Libyan war. They’ve also devoted themselves to ousting the Assad
government in Syria, for geopolitical and sectarian reasons.
Then there’s the war in Yemen that the Saudis have sponsored. It’s
another mess the media doesn’t discuss often. But it will likely produce
even more refugees.
The Saudis make no secret about not welcoming refugees, even though the
Kingdom is a primary instigator of the wars that are forcing people to
flee their homelands. One reason is the Saudis don’t want more people
leeching off their welfare system, especially amid budget crunches from
lower oil prices.
This brings up another interesting point. For the first time in
decades, observers are calling into question the viability of the Saudi
currency peg of 3.75 riyals per US dollar.
The Saudi government spends a ton of money on welfare to keep its
citizens sedated. But with lower oil prices cutting deep into government
revenue, there’s less money to spend on welfare. Then there’s the cost
of the wars in Yemen and Syria.
There’s a serious crunch in the Saudi budget. They’ve only been able to
stay afloat by draining their foreign exchange reserves. That threatens
their currency peg.
The next clue that there’s trouble is Saudi officials telling the media
that the currency peg is fine and there’s nothing to worry about. An
official government denial is almost always a sign of the opposite. It’s
like the old saying…“believe nothing until it has been officially
denied.”
If there were a convenient way to short the Saudi riyal, I would do it in a heartbeat.
Don’t Give the Welfare State a Pass
It’s no coincidence that the refugees are flowing to the countries with the most generous welfare benefits, especially
Germany and the Scandinavian nations.
If there weren’t so many freebies in these countries, there wouldn’t be so many refugees showing up to collect them.
The whole refugee crisis was easily predictable. It was the foreseeable
consequence of shortsighted interventions in the Middle East and the
welfare-state policies of nearby Europe.
Instead of facing facts, blaming it all on a scheme to subvert the West
conveniently deflects any responsibility from the authors of the mess.
If the individuals who run Western governments really wanted to solve
the refugee problem, they would throttle way back on welfare-state
policies and then stay out of the Middle East free-for-all. It’s really
as simple as that.
But don’t count on the mainstream media to figure this out. They
effectively operate as an organ of the State. I bet they’ll keep
prescribing more of the same bad medicine that caused this crisis to
begin with.
This will help to cover the tracks of the real perpetrators, and it
will obscure other real problems. I expect the media to ramp up the
“blame the foreigner” sentiment, as it helps the US and EU governments
distract the anger of their citizens from the sputtering economy and the
shrinking of their civil liberties. From the politicians’ perspective,
it’s a win-win. But it’s a lose-lose for citizens hoping for accountable
government.
And this brings up another uncomfortable truth for Americans and
Europeans. The way the political and economic winds are blowing, things
could get much worse.
Central banks around the globe have created the biggest financial bubble in world history.
The social and political implications of this bubble bursting are even more dangerous than the financial consequences.
An economic depression and currency inflation (perhaps hyperinflation)
are very much in the cards. These things rarely lead to anything but
bigger government, less freedom, and shrinking prosperity. Sometimes
they lead to much worse.
One day the shoe could be on the other foot. We could see American and
European refugees fleeing to South America or other havens to escape the
problems in their home countries. It would be an ironic twist.
Now, this outcome isn’t inevitable. But the chance it will happen isn’t zero, either, and the risk seems to grow each day.
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The TPP faces opposition, and a lot of
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Brookings
