Friday, December 11, 2009

Big chill as winter storm slams U.S.



(CNN) -- As if the heavy snow, ice and high winds from a major winter storm weren't enough, temperatures plummeted in the upper Midwest and elsewhere Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.

The storm brought blizzard conditions to some areas as gusty winds and blowing snow created whiteout conditions across much of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Winds of at least 35 mph and rain to the east caused hundreds of flights to be delayed or canceled, leaving travelers stranded. Parts of the Southeast received more than 6 inches of rain, causing flash flooding.

A 28-year-old woman was killed in Omaha, Nebraska, Tuesday night when a truck plowing snow in a parking lot backed into her, police spokesman Jacob Bettin said. She was pronounced dead at the scene.

In Nashville, Tennessee, early morning winds -- possibly up to 50 mph -- toppled the Christmas tree at the Tennessee State Capital, said CNN affiliate WKRN-TV. A facilities supervisor said the tree had been secured with hooks in concrete.

An Arctic high pressure system or air mass began moving southward from Canada on Wednesday, bringing with it frigid temperatures.

The temperature in Portland, Oregon, was 12 degrees, breaking the previous record of 15 degrees, set in 1972, said Jonathan Wolfe, meteorologist with the weather service's Portland bureau.

By Wednesday afternoon the temperature in Minneapolis, Minnesota, was 9 degrees. It was minus 2 degrees in Denver, Colorado; and 11 in Kansas City, Missouri.

Forecasters warned that places such as North Dakota and Minnesota could get dangerous wind chill readings of 25 to 35 degrees below zero.

Madison, Wisconsin, received more than 17 inches of snow, prompting the University of Wisconsin to cancel classes for the first time since 1990. The campus police department estimated 3,000 students descended onto the school's Bascom Hill Wednesday afternoon for a snowball fight, with a few minor injuries reported, according to the university's Web site.

Watch snow blow outside a hotel in Wisconsin

Early Wednesday morning, students began forming a giant snowball about six blocks from the campus and rolled it to an intersection near the university, former student Chad Krueger told CNN's iReport.

How is the weather where you are? Send an iReport

The storm prodded Nicole Stec of Janesville, Wisconsin, to finally buy those new tires her car had been needing.

"I'm a procrastinator, so I put it off for a while. But now it's time because there's snow on the ground," Stec told WISC-TV at a Janesville tire shop. "It's my Christmas present from Santa, apparently."

Elsewhere, Des Moines, Iowa, received more than a foot of snow, with more to come, and Freeport, Illinois, had 11 inches.

Schools were also closed across Iowa and parts of Minnesota.

Passengers heading to cities in snow-bound states were left waiting. High winds in the Northeast were creating flight delays of more than an hour Wednesday night.

New England also was expected to get dangerously low temperatures as snowfall was tapering off by Wednesday evening. Areas in Maine were expected to get an additional 4-8 inches of snow overnight after as much as 10 inches fell earlier in the day, the weather service said.

Connecticut's Department of Transportation deployed all of its 632 trucks to clear roads of snow that prompted numerous school closings Wednesday morning, CNN affiliate WFSB-TV reported.

Watch iReporters' shots of the storm

Flash floods struck north-central Alabama where rescuers ended up in a tree early Wednesday when their boat overturned as they tried to help a motorist whose car was swept into a rain-swollen creek, said the administrative assistant for Morgan County's Emergency Management Agency.

"The people were all right," said Rita Weeks. "They waited in the tree until people could come get them."

Earlier Wednesday, in the same county, a man hung on to a bridge over a creek after his vehicle was swept away by floodwaters, Weeks said.

Forecasters said the area got more than 3 inches of rain before it stopped Wednesday morning, but flood advisories were still in effect Wednesday night for much of the South.

The storm left its mark on the West on Monday and Tuesday.

Alpine Meadows, California, near Lake Tahoe received 42 inches of snow before the storm moved out of the region Tuesday afternoon. Pagosa Springs, Colorado, received 33 inches, and Flagstaff, Arizona, got 30, with similar amounts throughout the Rockies.

Urban Heat Islands on The Weather Channel

Click this link ..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-sXHl3l-rM

Picking out the UHI in climatic temperature records – so easy a 6th grader can do it!

The Urban Heat Island effect on temperature records is real, despite what some people wish you to believe. Peter, a sixth grader, and his dad, thought so too, and take the data from NASA GISS and show in a simple video, what we’ve been saying for years here at WUWT. Urbanization, land use, and station siting matter.

Peter - shows how UHI is easy to spot

Watch Peter’s excellent video below:

They used a simple pairing of rural and urban sites to show the differences. This shows why homogenization, which smears all the data from urban and rural sites together, is a bad idea, and gives trends that don’t exist in reality.

I like the ending where he says in the rolling credits “Peter’s dad is not employed or funded by any energy or oil companies”. It’s funny that they’d feel a need to say this. No National Science Foundation funding needed either.

This video appeared in comments on WUWT, if anybody knows how to contact Peter or his dad, please advise. We are in touch now.

One wonders what the response of the well funded Hadley Centre, Met Office scientist Dr. David Parker, might be to this video.

Parker’s 2006 paper published in the Journal of Climate titled: “A Demonstration that Large scale warming is not urban” claims:

The analysis of Tmin demonstrates that neither urbanization nor other local instrumental or thermal effects
have systematically exaggerated the observed global warming trends in Tmin. The robustness of the analysis to the criterion for “calm” implies that the estimated overall trends are insensitive to boundary layer structure and small-scale advection, and to siting, instrumentation, and observing practices that increasingly influence temperatures as winds become lighter. Furthermore, even at windy sites (e.g., St. Paul, Aleutian Islands, in Fig. C1), the calmest terce and especially the calmest decile will be strongly affected by occasions with very light winds in passing ridges or blocking anticyclones, and should reveal any urban warming influence.

…the results of the present study also suggest that they have not affected the estimates of temperature trends.

Steve McIntyre gave Parker’s paper a scathing review in 2007’s article:

Salt Lake County raises taxes, trims wages

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) -- Salt Lake County's new budget asks taxpayers for an extra $13.4 million, cuts employee wages and closes some recreation centers on Sundays.

The county council approved the 2010 budget Tuesday in a 5-4 vote along party lines. Democrats argued that higher taxes were necessary to maintain key services. Republicans urged more cuts in the budget rather than a tax hike.

The property tax increase will mean the owner of a $260,000 home will pay about $20 more a year. A $1 million business will pay an additional $171.

Sales tax revenues have slumped so the county has cut spending, which left more than 300 positions unfilled.

Employees will face a 2.75 percent pay cut under the new budget and will receive no contribution to their 401(k) accounts.

Funding will also be pulled from programs such as urban forestry and the Utah Cultural Celebration Center.

Other elements of the budget include shutting eight recreation centers on Sundays and reducing funding for the Sandy amphitheater and the Utah Sports Commission.

"It is a measured and conservative approach to balancing our county's budget in difficult times," Mayor Peter Corroon said in a statement.

Democratic Councilwoman Jenny Wilson said she's pleased the situation isn't more dire.

"It is because of shared sacrifice," she said.

Republican Councilman David Wilde said taxpayers shouldn't have to sacrifice more.

"In a time like this when people are hurting, it is incumbent upon us to do everything possible to avoid a tax increase," he said.

Tuesday's hearing on the budget attracted about 40 people. Most urged the council not to raise taxes.

"You see people being foreclosed on their homes. You see people losing their jobs. You see people's 401(k)s being blown apart," said Justin Holdaway of Cottonwood Heights. "You see everything in the private sector going downhill. But the public sector just continues to grab more and more."

One man, though, said he's glad to pay more taxes for Salt Lake County services.

"I'm in favor of the tax increase," Alden Laney of Millcreek said at the hearing. "Did you all hear that? I'm in favor of a tax increase. I like the sidewalks that we walk on. I like the streets that we drive on. My tax increase is not high enough."

------

Information from: The Salt Lake Tribune

(Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

Estimated Price-Earnings Inflation Adjusted Ratio does not Reflect Actual Earnings. VIX now Back to August 2007 Levels. Bank of America P/E Ratio over

It is hard to justify the 1,100 mark for the S&P 500. The 676 low of March, as disastrous as it may have felt, actually reflected a more accurate measure of earnings potential of the 500 S&P companies. The S&P 500 is a good index because it measures 500 companies with a current collective market cap of $9.6 trillion. The S&P 500 over a century of data has seen price to earnings ratios of between 5 and 10 after severe contractions. It is safe to say that what we are experiencing is a strong contraction.

It is troubling to see a sudden complacency entering into the market. The VIX which measures option volatility is back to the point reached in August of 2007, right when the crisis ignited:

vix volatility index

vix volatility index

The VIX was in the lows 20s in August of 2007, traded within a range until August of 2008 then exploded in October of 2008 and remained high until March of 2009. Suddenly, we are back to levels seen in pre-crisis mode. Even if we are to assume a recovery, are we really at a volatility level that justified a peak S&P 500?

Given all the movement in the market, it is hard to accept that we have been merely running the Red Queen race for over a decade. Running faster and faster only to stay in the same spot:

snp-500-chart

The level we are at today was the same as it was in October of 1998. A lost decade when we factor in inflation adjustments. But over this time we have gone through two busted bubbles in technology and housing. The housing bubble was the ultimate culmination because it also popped the consumer oriented debt bubble. A new austerity is being forced on many Americans as they come to terms with a debt induced economy.

To comprehend the drop in earnings it is important to put the overall event in context:

snp earnings

snp earnings

Source: Chart of the Day

For the first time ever did S&P 500 earnings go negative for a quarter. This recession actually caused across the board losses to bring the earnings negative. It has since rebounded but adjusting for inflation we are merely at Great Depression levels. Is this cause for celebration? For the moment, the current S&P 500 P/E ratio puts us at approximately 70 which is fantastically high. If we use a broader valuation of ten year intervals we find that the current S&P is still over valued by 100 percent:

snp-500-pe-ratio

The above data comes from studies by Robert Shiller. As you can see, after most severe downturns the P/E ratios hit a trough in a tight range of 5 and 10. Our current 20 moving trend is high by 100 percent. If we were to use a top line P/E of 10 then the S&P 500 should be valued between 500 and 600 as it was in March of 2009. Until we see real significant jumps in earnings, most of this is just hype.

Keep in mind much of the gains come after a horrific 2008. So anything above zero is going to look like a gigantic jump. The fact that inventory depletion caused a void that is now being filled causes the market to over react. Plus cutting fixed costs like employees helps the bottom line in the short run. Yet the real mover of employment is still weak. 27 million unemployed and underemployed Americans. A large part of our economy is consumption based so how is this going to impact the bottom line of many companies in the S&P 500?

Take for example a diversified company like Proctor and Gamble:

proctor-and-gamble

Even Buffet’s mentor Mr. Graham would reject this bread and butter company:

“However, Graham also preached Margin of Safety. Therefore, taking this formula and allowing a 50% Margin of Safety you arrive at a P/E of 14.25 in the above example. Many value investors would take a hard look at a company with a 14.5 P/E growing earnings at 10% a year.”

Take a look at one of the too big to fail banks of BofA and the P/E is off the charts:

bank-of-america

Even Wal-Mart has a P/E above 15. The point is, some companies like Wal-Mart are slightly overvalued given earnings but some of the hottest stocks in financials including BofA have P/E ratios with no justification.

Be cautious in this current market since current earnings do not justify the current S&P 500 level. We heard similar arguments back when the NASDAQ hit 5,000 and we know how that turned out.

Truth in Advertising

Click this link ...... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Go_VtqtxCHY

Surfing Huge Waves in Hawaii

Click this link ....... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OB5c39PZFQ4

Dems to lift debt ceiling by $1.8 trillion, fear 2010 backlash

In a bold but risky year-end strategy, Democrats are preparing to raise the federal debt ceiling by as much as $1.8 trillion before New Year’s rather than have to face the issue again prior to the 2010 elections.

“We’ve incurred this debt. We have to pay our bills,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told POLITICO Wednesday. And the Maryland Democrat confirmed that the anticipated increase could be as high as $1.8 trillion — nearly twice what had been assumed in last spring’s budget resolution for the 2010 fiscal year.

The leadership is betting that it’s better for the party to take its lumps now rather than risk further votes over the coming year. But the enormity of the number could create its own dynamic, much as another debt ceiling fight in 1985 gave rise to the Gramm-Rudman deficit reduction act mandating across-the-board spending cuts nearly 25 years ago.

Already in the Senate, there is growing pressure in both parties for the creation of a novel bipartisan task force empowered to force expedited votes in the next Congress on deficit reduction steps now shunned by lawmakers.

As introduced Wednesday, the legislation sets no specific targets for deficit reduction, but its 18-member task force — 16 of whom would come from Congress — is promised immense leverage to force change if they can first come together behind a plan.

“This is a defining moment,” said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), one of the lead sponsors, and New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg, the panel’s ranking Republican, is already maneuvering to try to add the legislation as an amendment to any bill tapped to carry the debt increase.

As explained by Hoyer and other Democrats, that will almost certainly be a pending $636.4 billion Pentagon appropriations bill that includes $128.3 in contingency funds for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The House leadership has held back the bill for weeks, saving it for this moment, but now appropriations clerks have been instructed to have a final package ready to go by Monday.

Leadership staff stressed that nothing was yet final in what has become a year-end negotiation between top Democrats in the House and Senate. But the Senate appears to have been the first to put the $1.8 trillion number on the table. And Hoyer’s comments are the clearest yet on the scale of the increase and the expectation that it will be part of a larger year-end legislative train pulled along by the must-pass military bill.

House Appropriations Committee Chairman Dave Obey, who is pursuing job-related measures he would also like to add, insisted that the debt issue is a “leadership call” alone. But the Wisconsin Democrat showed no sign of opposition to the strategy outlined by Hoyer.

“It is December. We don’t really have a choice,” Obey told POLITICO. “The bill’s already been run up; the credit card has already been used. When you get the bill in the mail you need to pay it.”

Though Treasury can buy itself time by moving assets around, it is already coming close to the current debt ceiling of $12.1 trillion. Last spring, the Democratic-backed budget proposed to raise this to about $13 trillion, but given the current pace of borrowing, no one now expects that will be sufficient to get through 2010.

In fact, fiscal year 2009 ended Sept. 30 with a $1.4 trillion deficit, which demanded higher-than-expected Treasury borrowing. Most of that was due to the downturn in the economy and spending commitments in place before Barack Obama took office. And as much as Republicans point to the president’s economic recovery bill last February as the culprit, only a small share of that $787 billion package was spent by Sept. 30.

The picture in 2010 is different. The administration is predicting the stimulus will hit its stride with much more spending. And there will be a steady escalation of outlays driven by back-to-back increases in 2009 and 2010 appropriations for domestic agencies.

The White House has vowed to be more deficit conscious in its forthcoming 2011 budget due out in February. But the House could vote as early as Thursday on a $446.8 billion year-end package covering more than a dozen Cabinet departments and agencies and representing a healthy 9 percent to 10 percent increase over current spending for the same accounts.

For example, transportation and housing resources would grow by 12 percent, including $2.5 billion for high-speed-rail investments on top of the $8 billion already added by the White House to the giant stimulus bill in February. A $163.5 budget for the Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education would add an additional $8.6 billion to annual spending, and Veterans Health Administration spending would grow to $45.1 billion, a $4.1 billion increase.

No, Wells Fargo, You Can't Leave Animals To Die

Wells Fargo foreclosed on a Rhode Island shelter for abandoned animals, barred former owner Dan MacKenzie from entering the property, and seems to be just letting the animals fend for themselves, the Providence Journal reports.

MacKenzie is seeking a restraining order to make the bank take care of the animals. Richard C. Dujardin writes:

Tuesday, RISPCA president Dr. Ernest Finocchio confirmed some of MacKenzie’s fears, saying that the bank said it didn’t want the organization’s help. When he visited the site Tuesday, he said that at least some of the animals — eight horses and two 800-pound pigs — had not been given any water even though he had been told that they had.


The buckets next to each stall were still empty in mid-afternoon, and little pointers he had placed on the doors to show whether the stalls were opened were found to be undisturbed, he said. But the clearest sign that the horses had not been watered was when he took a five-gallon bucket and placed it in front of each horse.

Seven of the eight horses drank up the water with no hesitation, an indication to him that they had not been given any water in a long time. He and Joseph Warycha, RISPCA’s animal cruelty officer, gave each horse a bucket of water and some hay.

Great job on handling this, Wells Fargo. Whatever you're saving by not ensuring these animals are looked after isn't worth the public image fallout.

Glocester farmer, evicted in foreclosure, seeks to compel care for animals [Providence Journal]
(Thanks, Jon!)

泰國‧納吉阿比希陶公府進餐‧普緹率隊健康檢驗

(泰南陶公府)在大馬趙明福案件裡引起國人矚目的泰國著名法醫普緹,週三(12月9日)親自帶領司法部的科學鑒證人員,在首相拿督斯里納吉及泰相阿比希共進午餐的陶公府酒店,為所有出入酒店的嘉賓及工作人員,進行健康檢驗,毫不馬虎。

普緹帶領的工作小組,在陶公府市區的TheImperial Narathiwat Hotel柜台旁,放置了2台檢驗脫氧核糖核酸(DNA)的機器,輔助軍警的保安檢查措施。

不過,普緹是在下午時分,當納吉與阿比希訪問了酒店附近的阿達基雅回教中學,到酒店共進午餐時才現身。

一眾大馬媒体看到普緹現身,都覺得意外,不過,親切的普緹則大方的與一些記者合照。

當記者向有關人員瞭解健康檢驗的目的時,他們都不願透露。

大馬媒体也發現,當他們把雙掌讓有關人員抹擦時,竟然有攝影師在旁邊,一一將接受檢驗的人士,攝入鏡頭裡。

台灣‧通訊傳播委駁回“動新聞”頻道申請

(台灣)台灣通訊傳播委員會駁回香港“動新聞”的新聞頻道申請。美國高爾夫球名將老虎渥斯婚外引發的車禍,沒人拍到過程,但“動新聞”自製動畫式新聞呈現“事發經過”。

台灣通傳委認為這不是新聞是類戲劇,不符合新聞專業要求,不得申請新聞頻道,否則就違反維護人性尊嚴的核心價值。

挪威‧奧巴馬領和平獎坦言‧“戰爭有時是必要的”

(挪威‧奧斯陸)美國總統奧巴馬週四(12月10日)領取諾貝爾和平獎後表示,雖然他領取和平獎,但戰爭有時是必須和合理的。

保衛國民抗邪惡政權


奧巴馬(右)週四在奧斯陸,領取由挪威諾貝爾委員會主席賈格蘭德頒發的諾貝爾和平獎的獎章和證書。(圖:法新社)

他承認,許多人認為他做得不夠,不值得領取和平獎,他也知道自己最近下令增兵3萬人到阿汗。但人們必須承認,暴力不能根除,國家必須打仗去保衛國民,對付邪惡的政權或恐怖主義組織。

他說,非暴力行動阻止不了希特勒的軍隊,談判不能說服“基地”組織放下武器。他說,承認這點並非等於鼓吹犬儒主義,但必須承認人類並不完美。

“戰時總統”身份領諾獎

奧巴馬當天以“戰時總統”身份領取諾貝爾和平獎後,發表得獎感言時也說,他對於得獎佷是感謝,同時也抱著很謙卑的心去領獎。

奧巴馬攜同第一夫人米歇爾乘“空軍一號”專機,飛抵挪威首都奧斯陸出席領獎典禮,由挪威諾貝爾委會主席賈格蘭德手中接受這項全球最高榮譽。

140萬美元獎金捐慈善

奧巴馬獲頒獎章和證書,以及140萬美元的獎金,他曾表示會把獎金全部捐獻給幾家慈善機構。

每年12月10日,諾貝爾獎頒獎典禮分別在奧斯陸和瑞典首都斯德哥爾摩舉行。和平獎在奧斯陸、由挪威國王頒發;文學、醫學、化學、物理等獎項則是在斯德哥爾摩,由瑞典皇家科學院頒發。

奧巴馬是美國第3位在任期間,獲頒諾貝爾和平獎的總統,但作為一個“參與2場戰爭的國家的3軍統帥”,他亦是以“戰時總統”的身份,領取和平獎,尤其他剛剛在上週宣佈了增兵阿富汗的決定。

高錕親領物理學獎

有“光纖之父”之稱的諾貝爾物理學獎得主高錕,週四在瑞典斯德哥爾摩舉行的頒獎禮及晚宴,親自上台接受物理學獎。

由於高錕患有老人痴呆症,大會特別安排,由瑞典國王卡爾16世古斯塔夫親自走近,讓高錕少走幾步路,高錕面帶容領取獎項。

物理獎得獎者之一的高錕獲安排首位領獎。75歲的高錕,同時擁有英國和美國國籍,一生鑽研光纖通訊,是第9位獲得諾貝爾獎的華裔傑出人士。

本屆物理獎得獎者共為3人,分別是高錕及發明電荷耦合元件(CCD)的美國籍科學家鮑以爾和史密斯共同獲得,獎項的一半頒發給高錕,另一半則由其餘2位美國籍科學家平分。

高錕身穿黑色燕尾禮服,而夫人黃美芸則身穿旗袍出席頒獎禮。

反戰人士聚集大示威

挪威和平組織證實,來自全球各地的數千名反戰人士,已陸續抵達奧斯陸,準備於當地時間週四晚在奧巴馬將下榻的酒店附近舉行大規模示威,抗議奧巴馬向阿富汗增兵及他的核武政策。

挪威警方已動員史上最大警力,派出逾2000名警員負責頒獎禮保安工作,光是花在警力身上的耗資就已高達9200萬挪威克朗(約馬幣5423萬令吉)。

當天,2架軍用直升機在奧巴馬下榻的酒店上空來回盤旋,使向來平靜的奧斯陸頓時籠罩在一股森嚴的氛圍中。

此外,當局也重啟邊境管制,並在機場以及奧斯陸週遭安置防空導彈,勢必讓保安工作滴水不漏。

挪威‧右手和平獎‧左手增兵阿富汗‧奧巴馬為戰爭辯護 Obama picks up Nobel Prize

(挪威‧奧斯陸)美國總統奧巴馬週四(12月10日)在挪威首都奧斯陸領取2009年諾貝爾和平獎,但他在得獎演說中,卻趁機為美國在伊拉克和阿汗的戰爭辯護。

奧巴馬在奧斯陸市政廳發表的講話中說,動用武力有時是有理的。他說,戰爭工具在維護和平方面確實有其作用,雖然戰爭本身向來不是光榮的。


奧巴馬以“戰時總統”身份領取諾貝爾和平獎獎章和證書。奧巴馬在得獎感言中表示,戰爭有時是必要的。(圖:法新社)

提出“公義之戰”概念

他提出“公義之戰”的概念,指戰爭只有在符合特定條件的況下,才是合理的:在別無選擇或自衛的情況下發動;動用武力須合乎比例;平民應儘量免受暴力傷害。

挪威諾貝爾委員會主席倫德斯塔向法新社表示,奧巴馬的辯護“完全可以接受”。

他說:“他向們展示以不訴諸戰爭來維持和平是如此困難,但他也提出了避免戰爭的方案。”

不過,歷史可能把奧巴馬在和平獎頒獎典禮上的演說,視為是他的美國總統職位的一個分水嶺,他的講話產生了一個問題:“猙獰的戰爭,是否合理?”

對非暴力抗爭行動致敬

此刻接受諾貝爾和平獎桂冠的奧巴馬,已經不是在競選期間,大搖反戰旗幟、激烈反對侵略伊拉克的奧巴馬。

奧巴馬在講話中,對美國民權運動領袖馬丁‧路德‧金和印度聖雄甘地的非暴力抗爭行動致敬。

他說:“多年前金博士就在這個領獎台上說過:‘暴力永遠不會帶來永久的和平’。”

但他話鋒一轉說:“但作為一國首腦,我曾宣誓要保護和捍衛我的國家,我不能單獨追隨他們的例子。我面對的是今日的世界,當美國人民被威脅時我不能袖手旁觀。”

他又說:“有時候,獨立行動也好,聯合行動也好,國家會發覺動用武力不只必要,而且合乎道義。”

奧巴馬演講摘錄

武力衛國有理

“我們正處於戰爭,我負責部署成千上萬的年輕美國人在遙遠的土地戰鬥。有些人會殺人,有的將被殺死。所以,我在深知武裝衝突的代價的情況下來到這裡――充滿了戰爭與和平,以及我們努力取代其他人的困難的問題。”

“我們必須承認艱難的事實:我們在有生之年將難以根除暴力衝突。有時,各國將會發現――不管是單獨行動還是聯合行動――不僅使用武力是必須的,而且在道義上也是正確的。”

“不可辯駁的是:這個世界上確實存在著邪惡。非暴力運動無以阻止希特勒的鐵騎,談判不能讓‘基地’組織的頭目們放下武器。我們說武力有時是必須的,這不是在狡辯而是以歷史為鑒,承認人類的不完美和理性的局限。”

“就算我們面對一個無法無天的邪惡敵人,我仍相信美 國依然是指揮戰爭的領袖,這就是我們與我們打擊的那些勢力的區別。那是我們動力的泉源,因此我禁止虐待行為,因此我指示關閉關塔那摩灣監獄,因此我強調美 國恪守《日內瓦公約》的承諾。如果我們對一直以來全力捍衛的理想作出妥協,我們將失去自我。”

“如果我們要達致永久的和平,那麼國際社會必須說出一些有份量的措辭。那些破壞國際法的政權必須負起責任。制裁必須有實質代價……我正在與(俄羅斯)梅德韋傑夫總統攜手推動美國和俄國栽軍。但我們都有責任,堅持伊朗和朝鮮等國家不能玩弄談判機制。”

“當人民被剝奪了言論自由、宗教自由、選擇自己的領袖或自由集合的權利,和平是不會穩定的。一個真正的和平不僅包括民權和政治權利,同時也要擁抱經濟安穩和機會。真正的和平並不僅是心無恐懼感,也是自由追求所渴望的。”

婉拒挪威國王邀宴惹不滿
奧巴馬被轟傲慢無禮

奧巴馬前往奧斯陸領取和平獎,只閃電逗留24小時(有別於近屆和平獎得主的3天),更取消了多項和平獎得主原應出席的活動,又婉拒了挪威哈拉爾德國王的午宴邀請,惹來不少挪威人不滿,炮轟奧巴馬傲慢無禮、“冷待國王”。

奧巴馬沒有出席挪威諾貝爾委員會的晚宴、記者招待會、電視台訪問、宣揚和平的兒童活動、一場音樂會及參觀諾貝爾和平中心為他舉辦的展覽等。

挪威報章《VG》民調顯示,44%挪威人認為奧巴馬取消與國王午宴的行為是“粗魯無禮”。

奧巴馬雖婉拒挪威國王午宴邀請,但他有到王宮拜訪,晚上亦出席晚宴,與挪威國王、王后和首相會面。

另據報導,和平獎的5位評委最近幾天幾乎“人間蒸發”了,挪威幾乎沒有一位記者能找到他們,如此情景在以前是很少發生的,而這只能說明一個問題,和平獎評委們也覺得他們的處境尷尬。

奧巴馬領和平獎
媒體稱史上最諷刺

左手領諾貝爾和平獎,右手增兵阿富汗的奧巴馬,有媒體稱之為史上最諷刺的和平獎。

連奧巴馬自己領獎後也說:“我從未懷疑可能有人比我更適合獲得這個獎項。”

正在澳洲訪問的達賴喇嘛接受媒體訪問時表示,奧巴馬充滿活力,亦相當能幹,但說到他獲授諾貝爾和平獎時,卻是“早了一點”。

古巴前總統卡斯特羅也踩多一腳,他早前撰文指,奧巴馬接受和平獎是諷刺,既然決定增兵就不該接受獎項;他又指聽奧巴馬的增兵演說就像聽布什演說一樣。


Just over a week after announcing an increase in U.S. troop strength for the war in Afghanistan, President Barack Obama picked up his Nobel Peace Prize on Thursday.

Following the awards ceremony in Oslo, Norway, Obama's acceptance speech touched on war and security.

Addressing the issue that the award may have come prematurely, Obama acknowledged that compared with past recipients — including Nelson Mandela, Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and Albert Schweitzer — "my accomplishments are slight."

He also cited those who have been jailed in pursuit of justice, or those who work for humanitarian groups to relieve suffering.

"I cannot argue with those who find these men and women — some known, some obscure to all but those they help — to be far more deserving of this honour than I," Obama said.

He said the most profound issue over his receipt of the prize is that he is the commander-in-chief of the U.S. armed forces at a time his country is fighting two wars.

"And so I come here with an acute sense of the cost of armed conflict, filled with difficult questions about the relationship between war and peace and our effort to replace one with the other."

While he acknowledged he holds his current position of president thanks to the civil rights work of past prize-winner King, who championed non-violence, Obama said he cannot be guided by that example alone.

"I face the world as it is, and cannot stand idle in the face of threats to the American people," he said.

"For make no mistake: Evil does exist in the world. A non-violent movement could not have halted Hitler’s armies. Negotiations cannot convince al-Qaeda's leaders to lay down their arms. To say that force is sometimes necessary is not a call to cynicism; it is a recognition of history, the imperfections of man and the limits of reason."

Last week, Obama laid out his plan to send 30,000 more soldiers to Afghanistan. He also said he would begin withdrawing troops from the country in 18 months.

Protesters have seized on the fact Obama is getting the peace prize during wartime, and they are planning an anti-war demonstration. Posters with the image of the U.S. president and the word "Change?" are up around Oslo.

Obama's trip to Europe will be brief, as he is due back in Washington, D.C., by midday Friday.

排行榜佔7人‧1人贏百萬‧雲頂贏家獅城客最多

(新加坡)新加坡人太好賭?雲頂賭場贏家排行榜上,9個贏家中有7個是新加坡人,其中一名新加坡人還贏得百萬令吉。

雲頂娛樂城是新加坡人旅遊的地點之一,除了有主題公園共一家大小玩樂外,最著名的就是雲頂賭場。


有網友發現, 雲頂賭場贏家排行榜上,大多數是新加坡人。

一名公眾上雲頂娛樂城的網站瀏覽,發現雲頂賭場列出每週老虎機的贏家排行榜,根據贏得最多獎金者來排列。

這名公眾發現,在10月份的一個排行榜上,9個贏家當中,居然多達7個新加坡人,高居榜首的是一名姓李的新加坡男子,他玩老虎機贏了近108萬令吉,相等於45萬新元。

這名公眾把排行榜放上OMY網站後,引起網友談論,有網友質疑新加坡人是否如此愛賭,因為只有賭的國人越多,上榜者出現新加坡人的幾率才會那麼高。

除了贏得百萬令吉的新加坡男子外,其他6名新加坡人所贏的獎金,平均也有2萬多令吉。

遊客人數排首五位

記者今日(週五,12月11日)早上上雲頂賭場的網站查閱,發現新加坡人的確經常榜上有名。

據瞭解,雲頂娛樂城每年迎來大約1900萬名遊客,而新加坡遊客的人數,更是排在首五位。然而,從這些數字是否就能說國人太好賭,網友有不同看法。

有人認為,新加坡天氣熱,雲頂娛樂城天氣涼爽,而且路程不遠,自然成為熱門的旅遊和“搏殺”勝地,況且輸贏靠運氣,或許獅城客剛巧運氣旺,不能單憑老虎機贏家排行榜的排名,就指新加坡人好賭。

玩老虎機天天上榜
新加坡客1週贏走25萬

獅城賭客頻頻登上雲頂賭場贏家排行榜,過去一週內,贏走25萬令吉。

根據雲頂娛樂城的網站,過去一週,獅城賭客在玩老虎機時,幾乎天天都榜上留名,贏走不少獎金。

總結最新7天的中獎名單,共有至少10名賭客贏走了逾25萬令吉(約13萬新元),其中一人贏得5萬令吉,新幣逾2萬元。

新加坡‧現身F3澳門大賽‧賽車辣妹被狂拍裙底風光

(新加坡)獅城賽車辣妹到澳門工作,被男士狂拍裙底風光!

這5名獅城賽車女郎,連同各國美女代表現身F3澳門大賽,在當地成為攝影焦點。


新加坡賽車女郎在澳門被人公然拍攝裙底風光。

公眾的鏡頭不僅鎖定在她們一身性感裝扮和甜美容,竟然有男子公然對準賽車女郎誘人的迷你超短裙下。

有人就將這一幕拍下放上網譴責︰“10多名男子竟以如此低俗的方式拍攝賽車女郎。”

照片顯示,一名男子蹲在搔首弄姿的賽車女郎身旁,明目張膽的把手上的相機放低,對準她們的裙底大拍特拍。

網民議論紛紛

照片在網上傳開來後,引起網民議論紛紛,不少人加以譴責。

網民指,男子的拍攝行為是違法的,應該受到懲罰。

也有網民調侃說,女郎們可能第一次遇到這樣熱的待遇,所以笑得很燦爛,看不出她們介意的樣子。

律師指出,如果裙底風光照片猥褻,違法偷拍者可被控侮辱女性尊嚴。

如果罪名成立,可被判監禁一年或罰款,或兩者監施。

不過律師也指出,假如被拍到的照片並沒有任何猥褻的含義,畫面一般,將不會構成法律問題。

網站文章:香港鹹魚印度咖哩味‧銅臭味代表新加坡?

(新加坡)除了銅臭味,沒有任何一種氣味可代表新加坡?

加拿大《國家郵報》網站上出現一篇評論文章,作者保羅.林芝認為,每個城市都有自己獨特的味道,例如香港有咸魚和煮面條的味道、寮國永珍有酸菜的味道、印度有咖哩的味道等等。

但是,他說“新加坡是唯一甚麼味道都嗅不到的城市,除非你對銅臭味特別敏感。”

新加坡是不是真的沒有特色氣味,只有銅臭味?5名居住在獅城的名人受詢時都不約而同的說,新加坡人散發的不是銅臭味,而是人味。

應先瞭解再發表評論

佛教居士林林長李木源就說,當然有一部份新加坡人是致力於賺錢和存錢的,但每個國家一定有這類人。

“本地的面積和人口都不多,卻有很多慈善團體,義工也很多,對於國際的人道災難救援也不遺余力,可見新加坡人不是唯利是圖的。這名作者不瞭解新加坡,只看到最表面的部份。他應該在這裡住上三五年,再來發表評論。”

議員楊木光則認為,作者並沒看到,新加坡人的休閑活動也是多姿多彩的,絕不是金錢至上的。

超市大王林福星也說,新加坡的城市建設得好,沒有河流污染的臭味,也沒有烏煙瘴氣的味道。

來自斯里蘭卡,目前在新加坡國防與戰略研究所工作的古納拉特納副教授說,在新加坡街頭的確沒有強烈的味道,但這是因為街道十分乾淨。

新加坡‧90科學家擬出基因圖譜‧亞洲人祖先來自東南亞

(新加坡)來自亞洲國家的90多名科學家合作擬出亞洲人的基因圖譜發現,現代亞洲人的祖先是從印度大陸遷徙而來,而東南亞則是東亞和北亞人口的主要發源地。

參與研究的科學家來自“人類基因組組織泛亞單核甘酸多態性小組”,5年前根據1928名來自73個東南亞和東亞人的基因,進行基因定型分析。

新科研屬下的新加坡基因組研究院院長劉德斌教授、研究員塞厄斯塔博士以及中國復旦大學的研究員,最後根據資料進行分析和撰稿。這項研究報告剛刊登在新一期的國際著名學術期刊《科學》。

這項研究異於以往研究提出的亞洲人口流動同時源於南和北,而是發現亞洲人口流動主要源自東南亞,也就是說,東南亞是東亞和北亞人口的主要來源。

人口基因往南變多元化

此外,研究也發現,亞洲人口的遺傳起源跟民族和語言群體有密切的關係;人口基因從北緯往南變得越來越多元化。

最早的人類源自非洲,在6萬到10萬年前開始移居歐洲、亞洲和美洲。塞厄斯塔博士說,人類在6萬到7萬年前開始離開非洲到亞洲生活,很多早期移民都有經過印度,他們很可能再沿著海岸線到達亞洲南部,來到了東南亞;這些人口隨後再向北移,構成了日本人和韓國人。

這項研究證實,中國人的祖先源自東南亞。塞厄斯塔指出,以往的研究顯示,東北亞人口有來自中亞、中東和歐洲的基因成份,但是他們的研究並沒有找到這方面的證據;他們相信多數或整個中國人口應該源自東南亞。

劉德斌教授表示,他們的下個計劃,是把研究擴展到整個亞洲,包括中亞和波利尼西亞島國,並更細膩地研究基因組。

從非洲經印度遷至東南亞亞洲人民有共同來源

亞洲基因圖譜的研究結果再次顯示,亞洲人民都有共同來源。

人類基因組組織泛亞洲單核甘酸多態性小組進行的亞洲基因圖譜研究顯示,現代亞洲人的祖先,從非洲往東遷徙,最先抵達了印度,過後有的人往泰國和南部遷移,來到了現今的馬來西亞、印尼和菲律賓;其中一些人過後又遷移到北部跟那裡的居民雜交,最後形成了們現在稱為的澳斯楚尼西亞人(Austronesian)、南亞語系人(Austro-Asiatic)、台―卡岱語系人(Tai-Kadai)、苗―瑤語系人(Hmong-Mien)、阿爾泰人(Altaic)等。

最重要的是,參與研究新加坡基因組研究院研究員塞厄斯塔博士說,研究再次證實了國家與人民之間的共同點,顯示大家都有共同的來源,也認定東南亞是東亞人口的一個主要淵源。

對疾病研究起一定影響

研究結果也對疾病研究起了一定的影響。

塞厄斯塔說,多數疾病和藥物基因組研究都有實驗和控制群,研究會比較病人和控制群的基因頻率差異;若兩者都來自不同的人口,數個基因可能顯示誤的基因頻率差異。這項研究有助於科學家衡量這些基因差異會對亞洲人口的研究造成多大的影響。

新加坡‧撿破爛者與送貨員爭執釀血案‧揮刀捅人電眼全程拍下

(新加坡)揮刀捅人,全程曝光!

週四(12月10日),加基武吉一名69歲的撿破爛者許添成,週三(12月9日)與34歲的送貨員發生爭執和被掌摑之後,把利刀藏在背後,然後趁和對方拉扯時,拔刀把對方捅至重傷。

兩人起衝突的畫面,被附近一台閉路電視全程拍下,錄像畫面約2分鐘。畫面一開始,送貨員從外頭走進公司,許添成不久後出現,邊走邊罵跟了過來。

送貨員陳明弟一手揮向許添成的臉,兩人跟著大演鐵公雞。拉扯中,背對鏡頭的許添成用右手推開送貨員,左手伸到背後,掀起汗衫,拔出藏在褲頭處的刀子刺了過去。

胸膛中刀自己拔出刀子

送貨員的胸膛中刀,竟然自己把刀子拔出後丟到一旁,負傷和許添成繼續扭打。

送貨員年輕力壯,即使血流如注還是佔盡上風。他把許添成壓在地上,好幾次揮拳打他。

許添成毫無還擊之力,一直處於挨打。送貨員被旁人拉開後,坐在原地久久站不起來。

送貨員這時開始喘氣,但還是可以勉強站著;許添成好不容易站起來,腳步踉蹌地離開。

許添成出院後被還押

69歲的許添成(譯音)週四出院後便被還押,今日(週五,12月11日)早上被警方以“蓄意傷害他人”的罪名提控。

根據控狀,被告被指在12月9日,在加基武吉工業台一間工廠外的停車處,以一把刀子蓄意傷害陳明弟。

罪名一旦成立,被告面對最高刑罰是坐牢7年,或罰款、或兩者兼施。由於被告已經超過50歲,因此豁免鞭刑。

另一方面,送貨員陳明弟的傷勢穩定,沒有生命危險,目前還在加護病房留醫。

U.S. Foreclosures to Reach Record 3.9 Million in 2009 (Update1)

ec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Foreclosure filings in the U.S. will reach a record for the second consecutive year with 3.9 million notices sent to homeowners in default, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

This year’s filings will surpass 2008’s total of 3.2 million as record unemployment and price erosion batter the housing market, the Irvine, California-based company said.

“We are a long way from a recovery,” John Quigley, economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said in an interview. “You can’t start to see improvement in the housing market until after unemployment peaks.”

Foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 for the ninth straight month in November, RealtyTrac said today. A weak labor market and tight credit are “formidable headwinds” for the economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a Dec. 7 speech in Washington. The 7.2 million jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 are the most of any postwar economic slump, Labor Department data show. Unemployment, at 10 percent last month, won’t peak until the first quarter, Quigley said.

Through November, U.S. lenders had permanently modified about 31,000 of the 4 million mortgages targeted for relief by the Obama administration’s foreclosure prevention plan. That’s less than 5 percent of eligible loans, the Treasury Department said today.

Loan-modification programs and an expanded government tax credit for first-time homebuyers are helping slow the monthly pace of foreclosure filings and “keeping a lid” on further property seizures, James Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer, said in the statement.

November filings fell 15 percent from the July peak and dropped 8 percent from October, the seller of default data said. That was the fourth straight monthly drop.

Late Payments

A total of 306,627 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized by banks last month, or one in 417 U.S. households, and a similar number are expected for December, RealtyTrac said.

There have been 3.6 million filings from January through November, the most in RealtyTrac records dating to January 2005.

Three loans went bad for every one that improved in the first 10 months of this year, according to a Dec. 2 report from Lender Processing Services Inc.

The combined delinquency and foreclosure rate for all loans increased to 12.6 percent through October, the Jacksonville, Florida-based loan servicing and mortgage data company said.

Fewer than 1.5 million homeowners -- or less than half of those targeted -- were eligible as of last month for Obama’s Home Affordable Modification Program, Herb Allison, Treasury assistant secretary for financial stability, said in Dec. 8 congressional testimony. More than 697,000 trial modifications had been started through November, Treasury said today.

Loan Modifications Fail

“Federal programs have not been successful and have done little about declining asset values,” Quigley said. “The probability that a renegotiated mortgage goes into subsequent default is substantially high.”

Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for the 35th consecutive month, with one in 119 households receiving a filing in November. Total filings dropped 33 percent from both a year earlier and the previous month, to 9,295.

Florida ranked second, with filings for one in every 165 households. California was third, at one in 180, RealtyTrac said.

Arizona, Idaho, Michigan, Illinois, Utah, Maryland and New Jersey rounded out the 10 highest foreclosure rates.

California had the most filings with 73,995, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Foreclosure notices in the most populous state have fallen on a monthly basis since peaking in July, according to RealtyTrac.

Florida had 52,935 filings, up 8 percent from November 2008 and 2 percent from the previous month.

State Data

Illinois was third with 16,422 filings, more than double a year earlier. They fell 18 percent from a record high in October.

Michigan ranked fourth with 15,988, up 10 percent from a year earlier. Arizona, Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada and New Jersey completed the 10 states with the most filings, RealtyTrac said.

Filings rose 65 percent from a year earlier to 9,227 in New Jersey. They dropped 3.7 percent to 2,114 in Connecticut, and jumped 69 percent to 4,401 in New York.

Three California cities had the highest foreclosure rates among metropolitan areas with populations of 200,000 or more. Merced led, with one in every 83 households there getting a notice, five times the national average. Stockton was second at one in 85, and Modesto was third at one in 87.

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, was fourth with one in 96 households receiving a notice, and Las Vegas was fifth at one in 102, according to RealtyTrac.

Riverside-San Bernardino and Bakersfield, both in California, ranked sixth and seventh; Orlando-Kissimmee, Florida, was eighth; Vallejo-Fairfield, California, ranked ninth; and Sacramento came in 10th, said RealtyTrac, which sells default data collected from more than 2,200 counties representing 90 percent of the U.S. population.

Sound familiar? US refuses to allow UN inspectors to investigate its WMDs

The United States said Wednesday that it remained opposed to international inspections of biological weapon sites, even though it stressed its commitment to a UN treaty covering such arms and invaded Iraq in part over its alleged stalling of -- UN weapons inspectors.

"When it comes to the proliferation of bio weapons and the risk of an attack, the world community faces a greater threat," Ellen Tauscher, US Under Secretary of State on arms control and international security told state members of the Biological Weapons Convention.

"While the United States remains concerned about state-sponsored biological warfare and proliferation, we are equally, if not more concerned, about an act of bioterrorism, due to the increased access to advances in the life sciences," she added, stressing the importance of bolstering the treaty.

However, the new US administration is still against an additional protocol that would authorize international inspections of biological weapons sites.

"The Obama Administration will not seek to revive negotiations on a verification protocol to the Convention," said Tauscher.

Bombshell Poll on Climate Change – 77% don’t believe!

A nationally televised 'debate' on global warming followed by a viewers' poll has delivered a landslide result: 77% don't believe global warming is man made.

The debate featured yours truly, as author of Air Con, and multi-millionaire Gareth Morgan, who spent $500,000 on two teams of scientists to advise him about climate change, and then sided with the global warming believers in his book Poles Apart.

Although only a 10 minute segment on the top-rating 7pm Close Up show, in a format that didn't lend itself to explicit detail, nonetheless viewers picked up the main points.

Asked "Whose views on climate change do you believe?", an overwhelming 77% voted with the skeptic position, while only 23% believe global warming is human caused.

The number of votes received was not released, but similar viewer polls on the same programme in the past have attracted up to 20,000 responses, off an average audience of between 700,000 to 800,000 IIRC.

Tonight's result is a stunning indication – I believe – of the damage to the credibility of the climate science community caused by Climategate.

The poll illustrates that with nearly 90% of the population wired online now, mainstream media can no longer assume that just because they refuse to cover a story, nobody will hear about it.

UPDATE: now on Youtube (h/t Ropata)


Pollresult

Meanwhile, for those who haven't already seen it, here's part one of my own video take on climate;



Financial Reform Is Being Gutted ... And Congress Might Not Even Realize It

As I have repeatedly pointed out, proposed derivatives legislation will not make things better:

  • A leading credit default swap expert (Satyajit Das) says that the new credit default swap regulations not only won't help stabilize the economy, they might actually help to destabilize it.
  • Senator Cantwell says that the new derivatives legislation is weaker than current regulation

Now, Mike Konzkal points out that the new derivatives bill may be completed gutted, and that Congress might not even realize it:

Have lobbyists snuck another major loophole into the OTC Derivatives bill? This week the final touches are being put on Barney Frank’s financial regulation bill – H.R. 4173 - “Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009.” One of the centerpieces of this reform is Title III: Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets Act. And one of the goals of this reform would be to get as many derivatives as possible to trade on exchanges...

For a while, reformers have been worried about an “alternative swap execution facility.” This would be a way of essentially allowing the current way things are done to be allowed to count as an exchange. Fighting off this loophole was a battle from a month ago, and it had appeared to be won. Now many are worried that this language appears to have snuck back into the final bill now.

Colin Peterson (D-MN), Chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture, along with Barney Frank, has added an amendment to the OTC Bill (opens large pdf) ...

The definition of a swap execution facility has been expanded to include “a person” (different from the “or entity”). It’s also expanded to an “or trading” definition, and includes voice brokerage firms. So now we are moving from the definition of something that is a platform for swaps to be traded on to instead something that simply helps swaps get traded. This could, quite simply, be a telephone over which two people trade a derivative (with one person declaring himself to be the exchange?). Instead of changing the way business is done for reform it looks like it redefines reform as the way things are currently done...

[Another provision] here allows an intermediary to execute a swap, ignoring the section 2(k) which is the meat of the reform, as long as the swap is recorded somewhere. Now we already have, from above, that a swap execution facility can be something other than the exchange. This is a rule that guts the regulation right out the door, and for no apparent benefit to reform. Many of these alternative swap facilities will be owned by the banks, so it won’t necessarily force the price transparency that has been promised. To trust regulators to simply do the right thing is naive at best when the ability to follow fixed rules is available.

From what I’m hearing, it is possible Frank doesn’t even know that this language, once in the bill as an amendment but removed, has snuck back into his reform legislation. Things are moving very quickly on the hill right now, and this is scheduled to be wrapped up by tomorrow. However this new language runs counter to the reforms Frank has promised to deliver to the American people. Either this language needs to be clarified before the bill is complete, or removed entirely.

As Ryan Grim notes, many other aspects of the financial reform package - such as the Consumer Financial Protection Agency - are being gutted as well. He points out that the states' ability to rein in financial fraud is also under attack.

Congressional Quarterly summarizes the fight over consumer protection (subscription required):

House leaders are trying to settle a dispute between liberal and moderate Democrats that threatens to sideline, at least temporarily, a bill to overhaul regulation of the financial system.

The battle centers on two proposed amendments to the bill’s consumer protection provisions that moderate Democrats are demanding a vote on. Should those amendments not be made in order, members of the New Democrat and Blue Dog caucuses probably would vote against a rule to commence debate on the bill (HR 4173), a House aide said. That would in all likelihood quash the rule, given that Republicans are likely to oppose it unanimously.

But liberal Democrats are staunchly opposed to the amendments, and have threatened to abandon the bill if at least one of them is adopted. But the liberals also fear they do not have the votes to kill either amendment.

One amendment would allow federal regulators to preempt state financial laws and the other essentially would scrap the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency.

“We still have some details to hammer out,” said Michael E. McMahon, D-N.Y., a New Democrat who has played a prominent role in the caucus negotiations over the final regulatory overhaul bill.

The amendment that would give the federal government the ability preempt state laws on financial protection issues is being offered by Melissa Bean of Illinois, a New Democrat. Supporters argue that, without it, financial companies would face a patchwork of state and federal regulations.

The other amendment, to replace the proposed consumer agency with a council of regulators that would oversee consumer protections for financial products, was offered by Idaho Democrat Walt Minnick, a Blue Dog.

The financial industry staunchly opposes creation of the agency, saying it will squelch innovation. The Chamber of Commerce is “whipping the vote hard” on the Minnick amendment, a House aide said.

Investment analyst and financial writer Yves Smith exhorts her readers to call Congress today to fight back against the lobbyists:

OK, sports fans, I know politics sucks, but it takes VERY LITTLE time to call or e-mail your representative to give him or her a piece of your mind. If you are not trying to be part of the solution, you are part of the problem. And if you can take a few minutes to call, be sure to call an in-state office, not the DC office. One big issue is a late addition to the House financial reform bill which would further crimp state’s rights (and recall it was the states, that led the charge on dot-com abuses, auction rate securities, and now on alleged rating agency fraud. This is an effort to gut the last channel willing to take on the banksters). Even Reuters is putting the state of play in unusually stark terms:

An army of lobbyists from banks and Wall Street have worked for months to block, water down and delay the bill, which would threaten the profits of many financial services firms.

Of course, the giant banks and their boosters in Congress are also close to making the bailouts permanent.

A summary of all proposed amendments to the financial reform bill has been put together by the Committee on Rules.

The 242-page "manager’s amendment" - a kitchen-sink amendment that pulls in all the last minute deals (so you can actually see handwriting on the PDF) is where you can see a lot of important policy changes.

The Decline : The Geography of a recession

Now available on YouTube. Click here.

108-year-old Editor & Publisher going out of business

A going concern since 1901, Editor & Publisher -- "America's Oldest Journal Covering the Newspaper Industry" -- is going away at a time when that industry continues to get smaller by the day.

From a memo issued this morning by the publication's owner, Nielsen Business Media:

We've made the decision to cease operations for Editor & Publisher and Kirkus Reviews.

This move will allow us to strengthen investment in our core businesses - those parts of our portfolio that have the greatest potential for growth - and ensure our long-term success.

As I type, the news has yet to appear on the E & P Web site, although the causes can be seen throughout the all-too-familiar headlines there -- "Tampa Editor, Now Exiting, Had Stayed On To Help Amid Staff Cuts;" "Guild Unit Chair Among 'New York Times' Buyout Takers;" -- as well as others that show a defiant if less than plausible optimism: "Gannett: Readership, Revenue 'Bouncing Back';" "Tampa Tribune' Parent Sees Ad Spending 'Firming."

Or, as a Talking Points Memo reader reacting to the E&P news puts it: "Everybody loves to read it; no one wants to pay for it."

Having spent more than 20 years in the newspaper industry before joining Network World, it pains me enormously to see what is happening to the institution of print journalism, and now, to the long-time chronicler of that institution.

Those media bashers who gloat over these losses are sadly misinformed, and, in some cases, cruelly oblivious to the pain being suffered by journalists and their families.

Those who believe these losses won't matter are simply wrong.

(Update: The E&P site has now reported its own demise, ironically enough, complete with a typo: "Editor & Publisher, the bible of the newspaper industry and a journalism instutution that traces its origins back to 1884, is shutting down, following an announcement by parent company The Nielsen Co. - December 10, 2009 12:13 PM ET.)

(Update 2: This is from E&P's own story about its closing and hints at a glimmer of hope: "The expressions of surprise and outpouring of strong support for E&P that has followed across the Web -- Editor & Publisher has even hit No. 4 as a Twitter trending topic -- raises the notion that the publication might yet continue in some form.")

Welcome regulars and passersby. Here are a few more recent Buzzblog items. And, if you'd like to receive Buzzblog via e-mail newsletter, here's where to sign up.

Yikes! Women regain lead in online Trivial Pursuit "battle of the sexes."

"Hey, kids, screw homework; play more Wii. Love, Mom and Dad."

An identity-theft protection tip for obsessive-compulsives.

For iPhone owners who couldn't find Macy's without an app

This year's 25 Geekiest 25th Aniverseries

Unisys exec brags about sending U.S. IT jobs to India.

This lamp lets your phone company pay for the electricity.

A pre-Halloween treat: Roto-Rooter's 'The Raving' turns 30

MIT ditches 500-word "long" essay? Does that "T" stand for Tweet?

Sockeye decline linked to climate change

Change in ocean conditions in 2007 likely behind mass death of stocks


Food-poor ocean waters warmed by climate change likely played a significant role in the death of millions of sockeye salmon in British Columbia's Fraser River ahead of what was supposed to be a bumper year, says a scientific think-tank.

A group of more than 20 ocean and ecology experts gathered in Vancouver this week to discuss possible explanations for this year's salmon collapse and announced their assessment Wednesday, saying they want to keep the issue afloat with a judicial inquiry approaching.

Last month, Prime Minister Stephen Harper appointed a B.C. Supreme Court judge to probe the collapse of the stocks, but the scientists say there's much work that can be done in the meantime.

The group recommended improved forecasting, more ocean-based marine research and a more precautionary approach to fisheries management.

"It's really important that we don't just sit back and do nothing for 18 months while the inquiry is unfolding," said Mark Angelo, chair of the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council.

Fish likely died young

The federal Fisheries Department had estimated more than 10 million sockeye would return to the Fraser River this year, but only about one million showed up.

That huge shortfall forced the closure of commercial fisheries along the Fraser, as well as aboriginal food fisheries for First Nations in the area.

Sockeye is the most sought-after and high-priced type of salmon.

Using their combined expertise and as much official data they could gather, the scientists concluded the missing sockeye likely vanished when they were still young and migrating toward the sea.

They suggested that in either late spring or early summer of 2007, ocean conditions probably hurt the fish's chances of survival.

"If you're looking at warmer temperatures and a lack of food, that could well be a cause of mortality for large numbers of fish," Angelo said.

However, the group didn't rule out other factors, including pollution and lice from fish farms.

John Reynolds, a researcher at Simon Fraser University who was also part of the group, noted that sockeye stocks are showing a long-term decline and any research on the species must keep that in mind

"This is now the way that things may well be for the future, especially under the predictions we have for climate change," said Reynolds, who holds the Tom Buell chair in salmon conservation.

Decline could be long term

"A lot of the problems that these fish had been experiencing in the past are probably going to get worse rather than better. We're hopeful that won't be the case and we're trying to do everything we can now to give these fish a chance."

The group said the methods used to regularly monitor the stocks should be tailored to the Fraser River sockeye — as opposed to the broader guidelines that also apply to other fish.

No one from the Fisheries Department attended the scientists' gathering, citing the ongoing inquiry. However, Angelo said a representative from the inquiry itself was there.

Despite the long-term decline of the sockeye population, Angelo said it's important not to give up.

"We may not return to the boom times in terms of runs that we saw a few decades ago," he said. "But, that said, our hope is that certainly we can continue to sustain a significant amount of fish within the Fraser system."

US expands unlawful drone war in Pakistan; violates letter, spirit of all US, UN war laws

The US is at unlawful war with Pakistan, having bombed over 50 sites and killing over 400. the Pakistan government rejects this violation of their nation, but just as the US has no respect for the laws limiting war to a narrow definition of self-defense in Afghanistan, Iraq, rhetoric for more war with Iran, and torture, they have no respect for peace in Pakistan.

Americans receive propaganda in support of US government murder and Crimes Against Peace, such as in this piece from the NY Times that say whatever BS seems most palatable without mentioning US and international law. Other propaganda encourage escalation of this unlawful war. President Obama’s escalation of the unlawful war in Afghanistan will concentrate troops on Pakistan’s border.
Our Founding Fathers warned Americans as stringently as is possible to write that encroachment of law becomes tyranny. Our long-term tax cost for these wars is over $3 trillion, with the US responsible for over a million deaths (and multiples of that number living in such misery and sadness they wish for death).
The war in Pakistan may also have nasty Black Operations attached to it, without oversight, that might include attacks in Pakistan blamed on “terrorists” (and here) to capitulate the government as its objective. The US has a history of overthrowing governments when resources are at stake, such as CIA Operation Ajax that overthrew Iran’s democracy in 1953 when they tried to negotiate oil profits. That coup kept Iran under a US-friendly dictator until 1979. The US followed this "defeat of control" by sponsoring an invasion of Iran from 1980-1988.
So what should we do?
Gandhi and Martin Luther King advocated public understanding of the facts and non-cooperation with evil. I’m among hundreds who advocate:
  1. Understand the laws of war. These were legislated after WW2 and are crystal-clear that only self-defense, in a narrow legal meaning, can justify war. This investment of your time takes less than an hour and empowers you to legally stand for ending these Wars of Aggression.
  2. Refuse and end all orders and acts associated with these unlawful wars. Those involved with US military, government, and law enforcement have an oath to protect and defend the US Constitution. Unlawful acts only move forward with sufficient cooperation and public tolerance. Stop cooperating with the most vicious crime a nation can commit: war. Stop tolerating it.
  3. Prosecute the war leaders for obvious violation of the letter and spirit of US war laws. You can only understand how these wars are specifically unlawful by investing the time to do so. Because the crimes are so broad and deep, I recommend Truth and Reconciliation (T&R) to exchange full truth and return of stolen US assets for non-prosecution. This is the most expeditious way to understand and end all unlawful and harmful acts. Those who reject T&R either by volunteering their name and/or responding when named are subject to prosecution after the window of T&R closes.
Following is the 10-mnute video from PuppetGov: Obama and the War Criminals. It's outstanding; please share it.
As always, please share this article with all who can benefit. If you appreciate my work, please subscribe by clicking under the article title (it’s free). Please use my archive of work to help build a brighter future.
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NASA manipulating data to support global warming?

Click this link ..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-uAwbkIUoM

Dennis Kucinich Speaks out about Afghanistan and the U.S. economy

Click this link ........ http://eclipptv.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=8853

Heated Climategate Debate on Fox News

Click this link ..... http://eclipptv.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=8852

Poor Mans Way To Prepare For Hyperinflation, Homelessness as a Lifestyle

Click this link .... http://eclipptv.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=8851