Peter Byrne of The Gold Report (6/24/13)
The quant who produces
Trader Tracks newsletter tells
The Gold Report
that the technical charts project a brightening future for precious
metals. Technical market analyst Roger Wiegand tracks annual trading
cycles while keeping an expert eye on potentially disruptive world
events. He is a stickler for fundamentals, though, when it comes to
picking out the best juniors for safe bets in a cash-poor industry.
The Gold Report: In early 2012, Roger, you
predictedthat
the price of gold would rise to over $2,000/ounce ($2,000/oz) during
the year. But as the overall stock market increased in value, the yellow
metal went in the opposite direction. What happened?
Roger Wiegand: Two things happened. First, the last gold peak
almost made it. It went to $1,923/oz, and that was a technical and
fundamental top. Then it sold down. The other thing that happened is
that the U.S. Treasury intentionally sold gold to protect the stock and
bond markets. Treasury feared that if gold ran up too high too quickly,
people would dump securities
en masse.
We are in the seasonal cycle when many markets go sideways. We have
seen the selloff at the end of last week. A triple bottom is extremely
bullish. The snap back in the price going long could be impressive.
TGR: What factors are keeping gold down in the near term?
RW: Gold is taking a pounding since the big bullion banks have
full control and they have to cover their radical short positions taken
at the behest of the FOMC and U.S. Treasury to preserve the fiat
markets. Briefly, they kept the gold market under control to prevent a
runaway for the FOMC and are now using TARP bank capital and derivative
dollars to drive gold to the basement. Next, they are accumulating all
the gold bullion they can to preserve their wealth in the forthcoming
legendary crash. In addition, they get to buy it on the cheap as the
dumb money is in full exit in fear.
Also, China, South Korea and Japan have problems and each central
bank is dealing American bonds. Recently, China sold American paper
through its own markets in order to offload Treasury bonds for currency.
All kinds of problems are looming in China; some experts claim that
China’s export trade numbers are only half of what was actually
reported. South Korea is clearly weakening, and Japan is experiencing an
emergency, causing it to stimulate at twice Mr. Bernanke’s rate. That
is simply unsustainable. Japan is the Achilles heel of the whole
financial system. If the yen runs away, it’s a disaster.
What does that mean for gold? Starting in August, the price will
likely rise until the end of September. Then harsh political and
economic factors will create serious problems in the global markets: I’m
calling for a 50% correction in the U.S. stock markets in Q4/13.
TGR: In your June 6 newsletter, you said that we are on the verge of a brand new world.
RW: The brand new world is imminent because the lessons of
2008 were not learned. The banks are doing the same bad things they were
doing before the crash, only worse. The derivative markets are larger
now than they were back then. A huge number of student loans might well
be written off. And the real estate market is doing a rerun. Incredible!
People with foreclosures who may not be qualified for a new mortgage
are receiving Federal Housing Authority-insured loans in a desperate
effort to try to prop up the home loan industry, which is a major sector
of the U.S. economy.
We are in a depression, not a recession. The real numbers for
unemployment in the U.S. are 25%. They were 25% in the 1930s. In Spain,
54% of the workers under age 25 are unemployed. The down-the-hill slide
is global and in slow motion. People still believe a lot of media
nonsense, but this market simply has not corrected. The ultimate jobs
program will be a new war.
TGR: Where do you think a war will break out, Roger?
RW: Iraq is cranking up for another round. War is on the
agenda in Turkey. Libya has bad problems, not to mention the horror that
is Syria. China is beating a war drum, but that’s just talk. North
Korea is not capable of going to war. But more wars over energy
resources will continue to break out in the Middle East.
War creates jobs. World War II ended the Depression of the 1930s. I
don’t think there will be a nuclear war, but three or four conventional
wars can go on simultaneously, hire a lot of people, square away the
economy and get things righted in the bond market.
TGR: Given such a dismal scenario, how will that affect the price of bullion and shares in gold mining firms?
RW: In the short term, gold and silver shares will follow the
futures and cash markets. We are still in a corrective phase, which can
last for another six weeks. But once gold and silver start to climb, the
shares will follow. It’s a big mistake right now for people to unload
shares in good junior companies just because the stock has been beaten
down. The companies with good fundamentals and enough cash to sustain
operations for the next two to three years are going to do better. Look
for good management with a project next door to a senior that is going
to buy out reserves. Cash-starved greenfield juniors out in the middle
of nowhere with no senior around to buy them out will not make it. It is
like the salmon going upstream—some fish fall by the streamside, some
make it home to nest.
TGR: What technical tools do you use to analyze the future of gold?
RW: I look at the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF
(GDXJ), which is the Index for the juniors group. Right now, the graph
of that technical tool looks like an upside down head and shoulders, and
that’s very bullish. It is going to take a few more weeks for the
junior stocks to pick up steam.
TGR: Do you have any junior names that meet your criteria for success?
RW: Watch
California Gold Mining Inc. (CGM:TSX.V)
at $0.08/share. The company has top management from Northern Gold
Mining Inc. (NGM:TSX.V). It is located in a region with gold mining
activity historically. Six mines are in various stages at that location.
California Gold Mining stock had a low of $0.03 and a high of
$0.24/share. Technically, we add the high and low and divide by two and
find a 50% retracement. That is half of $0.27 or almost $0.14. The
company has money and it has strong backers.
One of the standards out there that has been very good to our readers for the last four years is
Timmins Gold Corp. (TMM:TSX; TGD:NYSE.MKT).
It is a steady play, always on the upswing. When the futures and the
cash markets rise, Timmons runs alongside. The near-term price is
between $2.50 and $2.75/share. We’re looking at $2.85 to $3/share in the
next 30–60 days, roughly.
We have followed
Canasil Resources Inc. (CLZ:TSX.V)
for years. It is trading around $0.055/share. Rounding to $0.06, we are
looking at $0.125 as a goal within 90 days. A key point with Canasil is
it is primarily a silver exploring company in northern Mexico. Its
partner is
MAG Silver Corp. (MAG:TSX; MVG:NYSE),
and the two companies just signed a partnership agreement, expanding a
major project with an injection of several million dollars. MAG Silver
has a lot of capital. MAG Silver’s Peter Megaw is one of the top
geologists in the business. He told me that the company plans to build a
100 million ounce silver reserve and make it as big as the biggest of
the precious metal mines in Mexico. So far, it is doing exactly that.
Canasil also has some wonderful projects in British Columbia that just
got permits.
At
Trader Tracks, we like
Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. (SCZ:TSX.V; 1SZ:FSE) at CA$1.15/share. We are looking for a 50% retracement back to CA$1.75/share.
And there is
Gold Standard Ventures Corp. (GSV:TSX.V; GSV:NYSE)
in Nevada, right next door to Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE). The
chief geologist for Newmont has done the exploratory work and the
results look good. The firm’s shares have big support by some very
wealthy investors and are going up. The price was down to CA$0.50/share
in May, and it is at CA$0.67 today. Gold Standard Ventures is the
perfect example of a company that is building good reserves next door to
a senior that, in my opinion, is going to buy it out.
One of our old favorites is
Hecla Mining Co. (HL:NYSE).
Today, it is at $2.79/share. The company went through a spate of
problems during the last three years. But after settling a lawsuit with
the Environmental Protection Agency, it expanded the Lucky Friday mine
in Idaho. It bought out Rio Tinto Plc’s (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX) partnership
shares there. It now totally owns the Greens Creek project on Admiralty
Island in Alaska, which has a silver life of 50 years. That island mine
was running on electricity generators, and now it is connected by wire
to the mainland. Hecla has been busy with a gold mine in northern Mexico
in an area that is very rich, with four seniors operating in the
region. We are looking for a high of $4.88/share in three to six months.
Hecla’s stock likes to go to $8 or $9/share, and then retreat on a
correction.
TGR: Roger, can you tell us what kind of technical information you look at to come up with your recommendations?
RW: I am mainly a chartist and a technician, but one cannot
neglect the fundamentals, particularly considering the state of
political economy in the world. First off, does a firm have good
management? Is it located in an area that’s politically reliable? Does
it have expertise in engineering and geology? Then, we look at
valuations.
Remember, if you want to find gold or silver, go where the old mines
have been prolific. Just because a lot of ore has been pulled out
successfully does not mean that there is not more there to be mined.
California Gold is a perfect example. The two big mines that Hecla runs
in Idaho and Alaska are examples. The old mines in northern Mexico are
loaded with silver.
First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE)
is an intermediate-size miner in Mexico that has done exceedingly well.
Its stock is lofty in price, but the company continues to prove its way
down the road and make money by expanding the business.
After assessing the fundamentals, we examine the technical side with a
long-range chart of 5 or 10 years. Then we narrow it down to a one-year
chart. We next narrow it down to the cycles. Historically, gold and
silver do very well between Nov. 1 through April. From May through
mid-August, everything slows down. The annual fall rallies start the
second or third week of August and run until the middle of October.
Traders and investors in gold and silver know that the two big contracts
in Q4 for gold and silver are the December futures, and they expire in
November.
TGR: The futures explain the cycles?
RW: Yes. August gold is not that big a deal. December is the
really big one for gold. In silver, March is the big one. July is less
important. September is big because it’s in the middle of the peak
season going higher. The other big cycle for silver is December. So keep
these cycles in mind when trading and investing. Those are the times of
year a trader or investor with average experience can profit from
quantification. Chart the time of year when prices consistently bottom
out and then start to rise.
TGR: Any junior names for us outside of North America?
RW: We follow
Global Minerals Ltd. (CTG:TSX.V; DPF:FSE)
in Slovakia. It has great reserves. It is a previously exploited,
proven mine. Slovakia is a business-friendly, Westernized country with
all the big auto and consumer companies operating there. Global Minerals
had a dewatering project that went on for about eight months. The
pumping is completed, and the engineers and geologists are working at
the 3,000-foot level, doing the exploratory work for the next move.
TGR: Do you own stock in Global Minerals?
RW: I trade futures and commodities. Because I recommend stocks for the
Trader Tracks
newsletter, ethically I cannot buy them. That breaks my heart,
sometimes, because I’ve seen some dandies that I knew were going to do
well. But I personally trade futures in gold, silver, currencies, the
energy sector and grains.
TGR: Any parting advice, Roger?
RW: Please have patience, gold investors. Some analysts are predicting crazy numbers, like $900/oz. Not me.
TGR: Thanks, Roger.
Roger Wiegand—aka Traderrog—produces Trader Tracks
newsletter to provide investors with short-term buy and sell
recommendations and give them insights into political and economic
factors that drive markets. After 25 years in real estate, Wiegand has
devoted intensive research time to the precious metals, currency, energy
and financial market for more than 18 years. He creates a weekly column
forJay Taylor’s Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks
newsletter.
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DISCLOSURE:
1) Peter Byrne conducted this interview for
The Gold Report and provides services to
The Gold Reportas an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of
The Gold Report:
Timmins Gold Corp., MAG Silver Corp., Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd.,
Gold Standard Ventures Corp. and Global Minerals Ltd. Streetwise Reports
does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship
payment.
3) Roger Wiegand: I or my family own shares of the following
companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am or my
family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview:
None. My company has a financial relationship with the following
companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by
Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and
opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the
opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the
interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.
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