Friday, March 30, 2012

Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless

In 2011, the Fed purchased a stunning 61% of Treasury issuance. That can't last.

 

The conventional wisdom that nearly infinite demand exists for U.S. Treasury debt is flawed and especially dangerous at a time of record U.S. sovereign debt issuance.
The recently released Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report for all of 2011 reveals that Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury debt mask reduced demand for U.S. sovereign obligations. Last year the Fed purchased a stunning 61% of the total net Treasury issuance, up from negligible amounts prior to the 2008 financial crisis. This not only creates the false appearance of limitless demand for U.S. debt but also blunts any sense of urgency to reduce ...

 

UK Slips Back Into Recession

The latest economic data shows the UK has slipped back into recession amongst calls for a greater bailout fund in the midst of greatest economic slump in over 100 years.

The latest report from the global think tank OECD shows that UK has slipped back into recession while warning the Eurozone needs a bigger bailout fund to shore off an economic collapse.
The report also warns off continued of GPD contraction in France and Italy admits the greatest economic slump in Europe over the last 100 year – even greater than the Great Depression.
He said that is because the eurozone’s public debt crisis is not over, despite calmer financial markets.
The OECD has warned the region’s banks remain weak, debt levels are still rising and governments’ fiscal targets are far from assured.
“The mother of all firewalls should be in place, strong enough, broad enough, deep enough, tall enough, just big,” Gurria said, as he presented the economic think tank’s latest report in Brussels.
At their meeting this week eurozone finance ministers are expected to agree on combining the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) with its permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM).
Those are the two rescue funds for the 17-nation currency area.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel signalled for the first time on Monday that she was prepared to consider boosting the firewall’s resources.
Investment Week reports:

UK back in recession – OECD

The UK is back in recession, according to the latest growth projections from the OECD, while the recovery in the G7 economies remains ‘fragile’.

The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development said the UK experienced a contraction of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, and shrank 0.4% in the first quarter of 2012. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth means the economy is in technical recession.
However, it is predicting the economy will grow 0.5% in the second quarter of this year.
[...]The OECD projects the euro area’s three largest economies – Germany, France and Italy – will shrink by 0.4% on average during the first quarter, before a moderate 0.9% growth recovery in the second quarter.
Germany is expected to accelerate through the first half of the year, with growth of 0.1% in the first quarter and 1.5% in Q2.
France is forecast to shrink 0.2% in Q1 and grow 0.9% in Q2. In Italy, weak industrial production and household sentiment suggest recession for the first two quarters of the year, but the most recent indicators have been more positive, resulting in slightly better projected growth for the second quarter, the OECD said.
[...]
“Government action will continue to be critical, particularly in the euro area, where unfinished policy business on fiscal frameworks, financial firewalls and fundamental structural reforms must move ahead,” Padoan said.
[...]
Source: Investment Week
The Daily Mail reports:

Just when George Osborne thought it couldn’t get any worse, OECD says Britain is back in recession

  • Figures show output has fallen for the first three months of 2012
  • Recession will fuel fears Britain faces years of high unemployment
  • In his Budget last week, the Chancellor predicted Britain would avoid slump
Britain has crashed back into recession, a leading international watchdog declared today.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the economy has been in reverse since October last year.
It said output fell by 0.1 per cent in the first three months of 2012 having dropped 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of 2011.
The gloomy verdict – from such a highly respected think tank – is a bitter blow to George Osborne just a week after his much-maligned ‘pasty tax’ announced in the Budget.
[...]Mr Osbourne is already under fire for his controversial tax on takeaway food and a planned rise in fuel duty.
Petrol stations have begun rationing fuel before the rise kicks in and the Army is on standby after ministers were accused of spreading panic.
[...]In its report, the OECD also warned the recovery for the world’s biggest economies would be fragile, with the outlook for Europe ‘very weak’.
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline.
[...]
Garages across the country have seen a surge in sales as the threat of a strike by tanker drivers looms. Here motorists panic buy fuel in Burnham on Sea, Somerset[...]
The return to recession will fuel fears that the UK faces years of high unemployment and stagnant growth.
Economists have warned that Britain is in the grip of the longest economic slump for 100 years – worse even than the Great Depression of the 1930s.
[...]The OECD said the recent hikes in oil prices, which have pushed Brent crude to above 120 US dollars a barrel, would push inflation up higher than it previously thought, wiping up to 0.2% from growth across G7 nations over the next year.
It expects Italy. which is already in recession, to contract for the first two quarters of 2012, while France will contract in the first quarter and Germany’s growth will be lacklustre.
[...]
Source: The Daily Mail
Press TV reports:

A leading global think tank has said that Britain has slipped back into recession as forecasts show the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to shrink in the first quarter of 2012.

UK Slips Back Into Recession
Press TV – The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation (OECD) has calculated that Britain’s economic output has shrunk by 0.1% over the period between January and March.
Moreover, the revised figures from Britain’s Office of National Statistics revealed that the country’s economy had contracted 0.3% in the last quarter of 2011.
As a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, the British economy has fallen into a double dip recession following the recession in 2008-2009.
Nevertheless, in his Budget speech last week, British Chancellor George Osborne, predicted that Britain could avoid returning to a recession. Osborne said that the government’s tax and spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, had predicted that the British economy would grow positively during the first three months of 2012.
Osborne also claimed that the British economy would grow 0.8% in 2012 and 2% in 2013 and would continue to grow reaching a growth rate of 2.7% in 2014.
The OECD also predicted that among the largest economies, Britain would experience a very slow economic recovery, with only Italy struggling longer to get its economy back on track.

Petrol, pasties and the politics of panic: No.10 shambles over drivers hoarding fuel, and the tax on takeaway food


  • Ministers appear to give conflicting advice on how motorists should cope with threatened fuel strike

  • Cameron tries to seize control of crisis as panic plays out at the pumps

  • Then PM declares his love of Cornish pasties in an attempt to calm criticism of new 'pasty tax'

  • Meanwhile, RAF personnel train to operate fuel lorries to counter walk-out

  • Francis Maude stokes chaos by advising drivers to fill up spare jerry cans

  • Firefighters say message would 'massively increase' fire and explosion risks

  • Sales of petrol up 45 per cent yesterday compared to a normal Tuesday

  • Miliband STILL refuses to condemn Unite, Labour's biggest union paymaster


  • Filling up the family car and buying a hot snack are two of the simple realities of everyday life.
    But yesterday they conspired to plunge the Government into a day which veered between high farce and panic.
    First, ministers appeared to give conflicting advice on how motorists should cope with threatened fuel shortages caused by a looming strike by militant tanker drivers.
    Enjoying a snack: Chancellor George Osborne eating a Cornish Pasty bought in Cornwall in 2008
    Bizarre: In a clumsy attempt to calm criticism of the new ¿pasty tax¿ announced in last week¿s Budget, David Cameron declared his love of Cornish pasties at a Downing Street press conference yesterday
    Downing Street has been thrown into panic over drivers hoarding fuel and the tax on takeaway food. George Osborne is pictured, left, eating a pasty in 2008. David Cameron, seen snacking in 2010, declared his love of pasties at a press conference yesterday in a clumsy attempt to calm criticism of the new 'pasty tax'
    Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude exhorted people to take the extraordinary step of filling up jerry cans to deal with the impending problem.
    But only hours later, the Prime Minister insisted there was no urgent need for motorists to queue at the pumps.
    Then, in a clumsy attempt to calm criticism of the new ‘pasty tax’ announced in last week’s Budget, David Cameron declared his love of Cornish pasties at a Downing Street press conference.

    He said he had only recently eaten a delicious one from the West Cornwall Pasty Company on Leeds station.
    Unfortunately it was later revealed that the shop he claimed to have bought the pasty from closed down five years ago.
    The Roads Minister Mike Penning went further saying it was a 'mistake' by Mr Maude to suggest drivers fill up their jerry cans.
    Bizarre: The Prime Minister, pictured yesterday at Downing Street with Princess Anne, professed to be a fan of Cornish pasties during a day of high farce and panic at Number 10
    Bizarre: The Prime Minister, pictured yesterday at Downing Street with Princess Anne, professed to be a fan of Cornish pasties during a day of high farce and panic at Number 10
    Mr Penning told BBC's Newsnight: 'He didn't understand the size of the jerry cans.'
    He also said no one from Unite had raised concerns with him over the issues of health and safety, and said it was over the issue of 'pay' that tanker drivers would go on strike.
    He added: 'What we are trying to do is get the common sense approach, if the strike goes ahead we will have shortages so let's make sure people understand that and go forward.
    'There isn't a strike but a strike is likely to happen. It is common sense... that if there is likely to a strike don't queue in the garages, but if you are passing the garage and you are on a quarter or a half a tank top up now because there is no strike.'
    Meanwhile Labour leader Ed Miliband and his Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls sought to capitalise on the Government’s discomfort by ostentatiously turning up at a branch of Greggs to tuck in to hot sausage rolls.
    Greggs leads the hot food fightback
    However, this was a thinly veiled attempt to deflect attention from their own deep embarrassment over the tanker drivers’ strike, which has been called by the Unite union – Labour’s biggest backer. Critics say Mr Miliband’s refusal to condemn the strike, which would bring chaos to the roads and empty shelves to the supermarkets, is because he is terrified the union’s hard-Left leader Len McCluskey might bankrupt the party by pulling the plug on the funding that it gives it.
    Throughout the day there was an air of unease and confusion around Downing Street.
    Petrol stations began rationing fuel and the Army was put on standby as ministers were accused of spreading panic. Fire brigade unions warned that Mr Maude’s jerry can advice was positively dangerous – and potentially illegal.
    The Prime Minister attempted to strike a more measured tone, insisting there was ‘no need to queue’ to buy fuel but urging people to ‘take sensible precautions’.
    On one of the Coalition’s most presentationally difficult days to date, Mr Cameron then found himself answering questions about plans to slap VAT on items of hot takeaway fare that are currently exempt.
    As Olympics boss Jacques Rogge, in London for talks on the summer Games, looked on in bemusement, the Prime Minister declared his love of Cornish pasties at a Downing Street press conference.
    The Prime Minister was apparently trying to regain the initiative after critics said Chancellor George Osborne’s tax changes demonstrated that the Government was out of touch with ordinary people.


    Now garages are rationing petrol: Cameron calls in military to break tanker driver strike


    Fuel rationing returned to forecourts last night as the Army was put at the centre of plans to break a national strike by militant tanker drivers.
    As ministers were accused of spreading panic, David Cameron sought to seize control by drawing up plans to store petrol at military depots and to fast-track the training of troops to drive tankers.
    Motoring groups, however, said the Government had helped create a sense of crisis by suggesting drivers should fill up their tanks – while firemen’s unions warned one minister’s advice to store jerry cans full of fuel at home was both dangerous and potentially illegal.
    Scroll down to see the Prime Minister's reaction to strike threats
    Closed: Police had to shut down this garage in Christchurch, Dorset, because the tailback of cars was causing a hazard to traffic as motorists made a desperate bid to top up following news of possible fuel tanker strikes
    Closed: Police had to shut down this garage in Christchurch, Dorset, because the tailback of cars was causing a hazard to traffic as motorists made a desperate bid to top up following news of possible fuel tanker strikes
    Drivers start to queue for fuel at Morrison's near Liverpool John Lennon Airport following news of a possible strike
    Filling up: Drivers start to queue for fuel at Morrison's near Liverpool John Lennon Airport following news of a possible strike
    Soldiers at the ready: Talk of industrial action has raised memories of the fuel blockades of 2000, when Army tankers, pictured, were called in to action
    Soldiers at the ready: Army personnel are being trained to drive the tankers and are on standby to maintain essential supplies
    Despite officials insisting there was no cause for panic, long queues and soaring prices were seen at many forecourts, with some petrol stations imposing limits of as little as £10 on purchases.

    In other developments:

    • Sales of petrol were up 45 per cent compared to normal, and sales of diesel up 20 per cent; 
    • Unions said a strike could deplete petrol stocks within two days;
    • RAF personnel began training to drive tankers, while officials drew up plans to use ‘rubberised military containers’ to store fuel;
    • Labour leader Ed Miliband again refused to condemn the strike, led by Unite, which has given Labour  £5million since he became leader; 
    • Retailers urged both ministers and motorists to keep a ‘cool head’.
    'Self-fulfilling fuel crisis': Chaos reigned on garage forecourts yesterday as motorists made a desperate bid to top up their tanks
    'Self-fulfilling fuel crisis': Chaos reigned on garage forecourts yesterday as motorists made a desperate bid to top up their tanks
    Francis Maude
    Jerry can
    Blunder: Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude suggested motorists fill up jerry cans, right, to avoid shortages

    Esso petrol station, in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire
    lls up 2 extra petrol containers along with his car at Asda's petrol station in West Bridgford Nottingham
    Stockpiling: A van driver fills two cans at a Esso petrol station, in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire, left, while a motorist carries out the same task at an Asda forecourt in West Bridgford, Nottingham
    Downing Street dismissed Labour claims that it was deliberately stoking up anxiety in an attempt to highlight the Opposition’s links with Unite.
    On Tuesday, No 10 urged motorists to make ‘contingency plans’ for a strike by drivers who are demanding minimum standards on pay, hours, holiday and redundancy.
    Unite represents around 2,000 drivers who deliver fuel to Shell and Esso garages, as well as supermarkets including Sainsbury’s and Tesco, covering 90 per cent of the nation’s forecourts.

    Still delivering: Petrol tanker drivers, leaving Stanlow Oil Refinery, in Ellesmere Port Cheshire, ahead of a possible strike that may start in two weeks
    Still delivering: Petrol tanker drivers, leaving Stanlow Oil Refinery, in Ellesmere Port Cheshire, ahead of a possible strike that may start in two weeks

    Closed: The petrol station at Asda in Trafford Park, Manchester, is closed after it ran out of fuel
    Closed: The petrol station at Asda in Trafford Park, Manchester, is closed after it ran out of fuel
    The petrol station at ASDA in Trafford Park, Manchester, is closed after it ran out of fuel this afternoon
    Nothing left: The petrol station at ASDA in Trafford Park, Manchester, is closed after it ran out of fuel this afternoon
    A sign urging customers to avoid panic buying and stop at 50 litres at an Esso petrol station in Liverpool today
    Notice: A sign urging customers to avoid panic buying and stop at 50 litres at an Esso petrol station in Liverpool today
    Wry: Pugh's take on the strike threat
    Wry: Pugh's take on the strike threat
    Ministers only expect half of drivers to walk out if the strike goes ahead. Though no date has been set, and the union has to give seven days’ notice, April 8 and 9 have been identified as likely dates for action to begin.
    The Government hopes motorists will keep their cars topped up before a strike – rather than driving with the fuel tank half empty – so the country can keep moving in the event of any temporary shortages.
    But even as Downing Street was trying to calm panic buying yesterday morning, Mr Maude compounded confusion by advising people to store jerry cans full of fuel at home.
    ‘There are lives at risk if this action goes ahead as well as massive inconvenience to millions of people up and down the country,’ the Cabinet Office minister said.
    ‘The greater the extent to which people have petrol fuel in their vehicles, with maybe a little bit in the garage as well, in a jerry can, the longer we will be able to keep things going.’ 
    The Fire Brigades’ Union immediately called on Mr Maude to withdraw the advice, claiming it would ‘massively increase’ fire and explosion risks.
    Waiting patiently: Cars queue waiting for fuel ahead of the weekend on Great Howard Street, Liverpool causing traffic congestion on the busy main road
    Waiting patiently: Cars queue waiting for fuel ahead of the weekend on Great Howard Street, Liverpool causing traffic congestion on the busy main road
    Motorists pictured filling up in Belle Vale, Liverpool today. The strike could hit the Easter weekend
    Motorists pictured filling up in Belle Vale, Liverpool today. The strike could hit the Easter weekend

    Drivers fill their cars up in Bristol this morning even though the AA said people should not panic buy fuel
    Drivers fill their cars up in Bristol this morning even though the AA said people should not panic buy fuel
    Pressure at the pumps: Drivers queue for petrol in Waterlooville, Hampshire. Government officials warned motorists to prepare for a rolling national strike by militant tanker drivers
    Pressure at the pumps: Drivers queue for petrol in Waterlooville, Hampshire yesterday. Government officials warned motorists to prepare for a rolling national strike by militant tanker drivers
    Matt Wrack, FBU general secretary, said: ‘This is not sensible advice. The general public does not properly understand the fire and explosion risk of storing fuel, even if it was done sensibly.
    ‘Those without garages may be tempted to store fuel in the home. In the event of a fire in the house or a neighbouring property, it would be disastrous.

    'It is already against the law to store more than ten litres of petrol in two five-litre plastic containers in the home.
    'As that amounts to little more than a third of a tank in most cars, the advice is of little practical help.'
    A motorist fills up his tank at a Liverpool petrol station following news of a possible strike as staff leave signs urging drivers not to panic buy
    A motorist fills up his tank at a Liverpool petrol station following news of a possible strike as staff leave signs urging drivers not to panic buy
    Cars wait at the Shell garage in Edinburgh with staff trying to control the flow of traffic
    Cars wait at the Shell garage in Edinburgh with staff trying to control the flow of traffic

    More queuing in Liverpool. Cabinet Minister Francis Maude has said people should fill up jerry cans with petrol in case of a shortage
    More queuing in Liverpool. Cabinet Minister Francis Maude has said people should fill up jerry cans with petrol in case of a shortage


    Brian Madderson, of RMI Petrol, which represents independent forecourt operators, said: ‘This Government appears intent on creating a crisis out of a serious concern.

    'We believe cool heads must prevail here otherwise we are going to run out of stock rather quickly. By cool heads that means the Government as well.’
    Geoff Dunning, of the Road Haulage Association, said there was no real difference ‘between what people call panic-buying and prudent precautions’.
    What the driver can earn


    The Prime Minister denied the Government was trying to ‘raise the temperature’ in the dispute, saying the Government was delivering a ‘very calm, very sensible’ message but there was ‘absolutely no justification’ for a strike.
    ‘I do not want a strike to take place, I hope the talks will be successful. But in government you always have to prepare for any eventuality.
    ‘The British people would expect that. To the British people themselves I would say look, there is no imminent strike. The unions would have to give seven days’ notice of any strike so there is no need to to queue to buy petrol.
    ‘If there is an opportunity to top up your tank if a strike is potentially on the way, then it is a sensible thing if you are able to do that.’
    Mixed messages from No10

    ... and Ed STILL sits on the fence


    Union man: Ed Miliband has refused to denounce the strike threats by Labour's biggest paymaster Unite
    Union man: Ed Miliband has refused to denounce the strike threats by Labour's biggest paymaster Unite
    Ed Miliband refused to condemn the fuel strike yesterday as his party’s biggest union paymaster threatened to hold the country  to ransom.
    The Labour leader called for talks and said the industrial action should be ‘avoided at all costs’.
    But he repeatedly refused to condemn the threat of strikes or speak out against Unite, the hardline union that has called for the walkout.
    The Labour leader said the Government must do the ‘responsible thing’ and come to an agreement with strikers.
    He said: ‘We don’t want to see industrial action, it must be avoided at all costs, and the best way to make that happen is for the Government to tell both sides, to instruct them, to say, “You’ve got to negotiate.”
    ‘That’s what’s in the interests of the people of Britain and that’s what’s got to happen.’
    But asked if he could step in and influence Unite, Mr Miliband said: ‘There are a set of issues the employees are concerned about, there’s a set of issues they need to talk to the employers about, and they’ve said they want to get round the table.’
    The Tories seized on Mr Miliband’s obfuscation and called on Labour  to refuse to take any more money from Unite.
    Conservative Party co-chairman Baroness Warsi said: ‘This irresponsible strike would disrupt families’ lives, hurt businesses and damage our economy.
    ‘Ed Miliband must get off the fence, bring his influence to bear and tell his union paymasters to call off this strike. Until they do, he should not take a penny more from the Unite union barons.’
    The dispute has erupted over working conditions, but Unite has also complained that tanker drivers’ pay has been cut. However, fuel tanker drivers are already paid double the salary of ordinary haulage drivers, pocketing about £45,000 a year.
    Labour rejected calls for Mr Miliband to condemn the proposed strike, accusing the Government of using the confrontation to distract attention from the Budget and cash-for-access scandal.
    A senior source said: ‘What has happened here is that the Government is politicising this fuel dispute by stirring up this confrontation. They are aggravating a dispute when they should be solving it in order to get themselves out of a political hole.’
    But a Downing Street source close to Mr Cameron hit back, saying: ‘They are terrified that they are bankrolled by the union that is threatening to bring the country to its knees.’
    VIDEO: There is absolutely no justification for a strike - David Cameron 

    Just when George Osborne thought it couldn't get any worse, OECD says Britain is back in recession

    Warned: George Osborne has been told Britain is in the midst of a double-dip recession, heaping more pressure on the Chancellor after controversy over his tax on hot takeaway food and a fuel duty rise
    Warned: George Osborne has been told Britain is in the midst of a double-dip recession, heaping more pressure on the Chancellor after controversy over his tax on hot takeaway food and a fuel duty rise
    George Osborne suffered a bruising blow yesterday when a leading global watchdog declared that Britain is back in recession.
    The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said output fell by 0.1 per cent in the first three months of 2012, having dropped by 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of 2011.
    If official figures next month from the Office for National Statistics back up the respected think-tank’s findings, it will be the first double-dip recession in Britain since 1975.
    The gloomy verdict – from such a highly respected think tank – is a bitter blow for the Chancellor just seven days after his much-maligned 'pasty tax' announced in the Budget.
    The Paris-based OECD is a long-time supporter of the Chancellor's battle to repair the economic and financial damage of the Labour years.
    But its view that the UK is in the midst of a double-dip recession will be seized on by Labour as evidence that even Mr Osborne's most loyal supporters do not think his plan is working.
    Mr Osbourne is already under fire for his controversial tax on takeaway food and a planned rise in fuel duty.
    Petrol stations have begun rationing fuel before the rise kicks in and the Army is on standby after ministers were accused of spreading panic.
    Retailers such as pasty-maker Greggs have also been up in arms about the planned rise in VAT on hot snacks, depending on their 'ambient temperature', from October.
    Now bakers and food chains are planning to mobilise angry pasty fans to block the new levy.
    In its report, the OECD also warned the recovery for the world's biggest economies would be fragile, with the outlook for Europe 'very weak'.

    A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline.
    Britain plunged into a brutal recession in early 2008 as the financial crisis and banking crash wreaked havoc on the world economy.
    But it started recovering at the end of 2009 – albeit slowly.
    Scroll down for video
    Garages across the country have seen a surge in sales as the threat of a strike by tanker drivers looms. Here motorists panic buy fuel in Burnham on Sea, Somerset
    Garages across the country have seen a surge in sales as the threat of a strike by tanker drivers looms. Here motorists panic buy fuel in Burnham on Sea, Somerset

    Bank of England figures also out today have fuelled predictions of further property price falls
    Bank of England figures also out today have fuelled predictions of further property price falls
    The return to recession will fuel fears that the UK faces years of high unemployment and stagnant growth.
    Economists have warned that Britain is in the grip of the longest economic slump for 100 years – worse even than the Great Depression of the 1930s.
    But they are divided as to whether GDP will fall in the first quarter of the year. A number of upbeat surveys have suggested a return to mild growth in the quarter.

    And any slump would be modest compared with the 2008/09 recession and the OECD predicts a return to growth in the second quarter of the year.

    The Office for National Statistics today said the powerhouse services sector grew by 0.2 per cent between December and January, after a slight decline in the final quarter of 2011.

    However, it is generally agreed that the UK's economic growth will be feeble for the first half of 2012 at least, although falling inflation should increasingly deliver a boost to consumer spending as the year progresses.

    The Government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, predicts the UK will avoid a recession but the economy will grow by just 0.8 per cent over the course of 2012.
    Pastygate: Greggs could launch an online Parliamentary petition against the controversial VAT hike
    Pastygate: Greggs could launch an online Parliamentary petition against the controversial VAT hike
    Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec, predicts the economy will grow by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of the year.

    He said: 'Recent indications suggest the UK's economy will have expanded in the first quarter. Our own view is that the OECD is being too gloomy.

    'The services sector appears to have strengthened, the manufacturing sector is recovering since the end of last year and there's been signs of strength in retail spending.'

    Meanwhile, the OECD warned of a two-speed recovery developing in the G7 nations, with North America enjoying a rapid expansion but Europe weighed down by austerity measures.

    The OECD said the recent hikes in oil prices, which have pushed Brent crude to above 120 US dollars a barrel, would push inflation up higher than it previously thought, wiping up to 0.2% from growth across G7 nations over the next year.

    It expects Italy. which is already in recession, to contract for te first two quarters of 2012, while France will contract in the first quarter and Germany's growth will be lacklustre.

    In November, the OECD warned the eurozone crisis was a key risk for the UK economy and it today called for the firewall to be increased in size to help prevent the crisis worsening.

    It last year slashed the UK's 2012 growth forecast to just 0.5 per cent from 1.8 per cent earlier in the year and said it expects unemployment to hit 9.1 per cent by 2013, putting another 400,000 people out of work.
    Bank of England figures showed today that mortgage approvals for house purchase have dropped to their lowest level since last June, fuelling predictions of further property price falls.
    The report showed a sharp dip in approvals even before the ending of a two-year stamp duty concession for first-time buyers, which finished last Saturday.
    There were 48,986 loan approvals for house purchase in February worth £7.1billion, almost 9,000 fewer such loans than in January, which was a 25-month high.
    The figures follow concerns from lenders and estate agents that a rush to beat the stamp duty deadline would be followed by a dip once the 1 per cent duty for first-time buyers on properties worth between £125,000 and £250,000 was reinstated.
    The Bank of England report was published on the same day that Nationwide said house prices recorded a monthly fall of 1 per cent in March.
    Last week in his Budget speech, the Chancellor predicted the economy would avoid slipping into recession.
    He said the Office For Budget Responsibility had estimated Britain would be in positive growth within the first quarter of 2012.
    Mr Osborne added that the OBR's forecast for UK growth was 0.8 per cent in 2012, 2 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014 and 3 per cent in both 2015 and 2016.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2122068/UK-recession-just-George-Osborne-thought-worse.html#ixzz1qZPu3zOe

    Australian Globalist Senator Bob Brown Calls for World Government

    globalist-bob-brown-global-government-new-world-orderAndrew Puhanic, Contributor
    Activist Post

    The Globalists have officially infiltrated the Australian Government and have now admitted on record that they want Australia to lead the world to introduce global government and the new world order.

    Australian Globalist, Greens Party leader and unofficial leader of the Australian Labor Party, Senator Bob Brown, has been quoted as saying that the “world should be ruled by a new global parliament under the auspices of the United Nations”

    Senator Bob Brown then went on the say that "Australia should to take the lead in establishing a global parliament to govern issues such as nuclear proliferation, international financial transactions and poverty."

    These comments made by Globalist Senator Bob Brown prove that the government is now actively seeking global government and the new world order. Senator Bob Brown even went as far to describe how a global government will function. He was quoted as saying "a global government should consist of a bicameral (two houses) parliament with equal representation from every nation."

    This is not the first time Senator Bob Brown has declared that we should all accept global government and the new world order. In June 2011, Senator Bob Brown was quoted as saying “the issue of a global parliament was "conceptual" at the moment. He then went on to say that "why should Australia not be at the centre of what is inevitably going to be a global parliamentary governance down the line – if we human beings are going to live with each other on this marvellous planet of ours as we go on our joy ride of the future? Of course we are going to have to make consensus decisions."

     As concerning as the above statements made by Senator Bob Brown are, what’s even more concerning is that at the moment he has the influence, power and political mandate to direct Australian foreign public policy. As a result of the close nature of the last Australian federal election, the Greens Party and the Labor party in Australia have joined forces to form government with the help of three independent senators.

    So what does this mean for Australia and the Globalist agenda? Well, because we now have evidence that the government is actively seeking global government and a new world order, we can use this information to gather support and build momentum in the wider community to campaign and rally against the globalist agenda and global government. We must stop the formation of global government and we must not allow the Globalists to further influence our politicians.

    Global government will only benefit the Globalists and multinational corporations. You and I are not part of the globalist agenda and will suffer the most if a global government is formed. There is now no doubt that the Globalists are seeking a formal global government and this is the most compelling evidence of how the government and globalists are seeking to establish the framework of the new world order since that famous speech made by George Bush Senior.

    TOP TEN THINGS THE BANKS DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW

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    Spanish police have clashed with demonstrators on the day of a general strike called in protest at the government's labour market reforms.
    Some of the marchers in Barcelona smashed windows and set rubbish bins alight. Police responded with tear gas and baton charges.
    There were also protests in the capital, Madrid, and other cities.
    Land and air travel were all affected, and domestic and European flights cut to a fraction of normal levels.
    The centre-right government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will unveil measures on Friday aimed at saving tens of billions of euros and making it easier for businesses to sack employees.
    It hopes the changes will cut unemployment which is currently the highest in the EU at 23%.
    Nearly half of Spain's under 25s are out of work.
    Shops burnt out

    Start Quote

    Protesters in Bilbao carry a banner reading "You are not just cutting our money, you are cutting our rights", 29 March 2012
    The unions see it not just as a trial of strength but as a battle over the future of the welfare state”
    Gavin Hewitt Europe editor
    Unions said 800,000 people joined the protest in Barcelona. Police put the number at 80,000.
    Most of the protests were peaceful, but some protesters hurled rocks at bank offices and shop fronts. A branch of the coffee chain Starbucks was set on fire.
    "They burned a two-storey Starbucks cafe and another shop," a spokesman for the regional interior ministry told the AFP news agency. "It is out now. In the shop there is broken glass and they took out whatever they could burn."
    Police fired tear gas and shot rubber bullets at the ground, TV pictures showed.
    In Madrid, 900,000 people took part in protest marches, according to unions. The government did not provide any figures.
    Scuffles with police broke out early on Thursday as workers from Spain's biggest unions picketed Madrid's bus depot.
    Unions claimed strong support at car factories and other industrial sites but the government played down the impact.
    Noisy picket lines formed outside transport hubs and some businesses.
    Unions said more than 80% of workers took part, but the government said many services were kept running.
    One young demonstrator told the BBC that Spain was a "market dictatorship".
    The strike is the government's first big challenge since taking office after elections last November.
    'Rights wiped away'
    By agreement between the government and the unions, bus and rail services were kept to a minimum service while only one in 10 domestic and one in five European flights were able to operate.

    Start Quote

    The rights that our parents and grandparents fought for are being wiped away without the public being consulted”
    Angel Andrino Protester in Madrid
    Outside Atocha - one of Madrid's main rail stations - picketers waved red union flags and blew whistles as police looked on.
    One protester in Madrid, 31-year-old Angel Andrino, said he had been sacked a day after the labour reforms were approved in a decree last month.
    Accompanied on the march by his parents and brother, he told the Associated Press news agency: "We are going through a really hard time, suffering.
    "The rights that our parents and grandparents fought for are being wiped away without the public being consulted."
    The UGT union said that participation in the strike was "massive" and that virtually all workers at Renault, Seat, Volkswagen and Ford car factories around Spain had honoured it during the shift.
    Regional TV stations in Andalusia in the south, Catalonia in the north-east and Madrid were also off the air because of the strike.
    With the EU's highest rate of unemployment, Spain is under pressure to reduce its budget deficit and bring its public finances under control.
    "The question here is not whether the strike is honoured by many or few, but rather whether we get out of the crisis," the country's Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro said.
    "That is what is at stake, and the government is not going to yield."
    On 10 February, the government approved legislation cutting severance pay to a maximum of 33 days' salary for each year worked, compared with the current 45 days.
    The government insists the reforms will create a more flexible system for businesses and workers, in a country with a stagnant economy that needs to start creating jobs.
    Mr Rajoy, who took office in December, defended his measures on the grounds that they would eventually generate more jobs.
    "No government has passed as many reforms in its first 100 days in office as this one," he said on Tuesday, speaking on a visit to South Korea.
    "The biggest mistake would be to do nothing," the Spanish prime minister added.
    Are you in Spain? What do you think of the planned labour reforms? Are you taking part in the strike? Will you be affected by the strike? You can send us your views and experiences using the form below.
    Send your pictures and videos to yourpics@bbc.co.uk or text them to 61124 (UK) or +44 7624 800 100 (International). If you have a large file you can upload here.
    Read the terms and conditions

    Iceland Has Last Laugh....Tells EU Banks to Stick It!!!

    The Free Market Solution to Government Induced Poverty


    Some UK gas stations shut after fuel panic-buying


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    AP Photo/SCOTT HEPPELL
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    Today's Gas Prices:
    State-by-State
    Breakdown of Costs for a Gallon of Gas
    Drivers React to Gas Prices
    LONDON (AP) -- Government warnings that motorists should stock up at the pump ahead of a threatened strike by British fuel tanker drivers prompted scattered outbreaks of panic buying Thursday.
    Gasoline sales have surged more than 80 percent, jerry cans are flying off the shelves, and - in at least some places in southwest England - lines have become so long that police ordered stations to close to ease congestion.
    "I'm very, very busy," said Balaji Adusuballi, who helps run the White Mare Pool Shell station in the northern England city of Gateshead, where the line of cars stretched out into the road. "There's a queue since this morning. It's very unusual."
    A drivers' association laid the blame for the sudden surge in demand on the government's reaction to a threatened strike by the Unite union, which could close thousands of gas stations. Although a strike date hasn't been set - and there has to be a weeklong warning period - ministers have been advising Britons that it would be sensible to make sure they had extra gasoline just in case.
    Opposition politicians have accused the ruling Conservative Party of inflaming the situation after days of negative headlines over party donors and controversy over the government's deficit-reduction plans.
    "They made a crude decision to play politics with petrol without regard for the consequence," Labour Party leader Ed Miliband said.
    The government has said they're taking the appropriate precautions.
    "If they go on strike the country will have a problem," Transport Minister Mike Penning told BBC television late Tuesday. "Let's be prepared for that in case it happens."
    Britain's Automobile Association said that the official advice was to blame for the run on the pumps.
    "If drivers followed normal fuel buying patterns there would be no fuel shortage whatsoever," AA president Edmund King said. "We now have self-inflicted shortages due to poor advice about topping up the tank and hoarding in jerry cans. This in turn has led to localized shortages, queues and some profiteering at the pumps."
    Britain's Petrol Retailers Association said Thursday that gasoline sales were up 81 percent, with diesel sales up 43 percent. British retailer Halfords reported that sales of fuel cans had tripled.
    "It is clear that there is an element of panic buying," Halfords commercial director Paul McClenaghan said. "Sales started rising dramatically after the government issued their warning."
    Police in Dorset, in southwest England, have asked that gas stations close, at least temporarily, because the oversize lines were "causing danger to other road users."
    Fuel strikes have the potential to cause serious political damage in Britain, where gasoline prices are already among the highest in Europe. A damaging series of fuel blockages caused a headache for Tony Blair's government back in 2000.
    © 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

    Ron Paul's "Wild Ideas": Follow the Constitution, Stop Printing Money, D...

    Legislating Greater Wall Street Theft

    Stephen Lendman, Contributor

    Activist Post

    Political Washington is Wall Street's best friend. Whatever crooked bankers want they get. Their business model features grand theft. Wealth’s amassed through fraudulent double-dealing.

    Lawmakers facilitate their racketeering. They're rewarded in kind. Only fleeced households, investors, communities and nations lose out.

    Their dirty game continues unobstructed. New legislation enhances what's on the books. Another bill will become law when Obama signs it. Wall Street's again celebrating, and why not? Business is better than ever, courtesy of complicit lawmakers.

    At issue is the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act (the JOBS Act). On March 8, the House passed it overwhelmingly 390 - 23. On March 22, Senate followed 73 - 26. Doing what he does best, Obama will sign it into law. He'll again betray America's 99% in the process.

    When everything comes up roses for Wall Street, ordinary people get scammed. It's the same every time like loaded dice let the house win.

    Former bank regulator/financial fraud expert Bill Black explained what's at stake in his article headlined, "‘The only winning move is not to play’ -- the insanity of the regulatory race to the bottom.”

     He called the imminent JOBS Act passage reminiscent of the "worst anti-regulatory travesties in the financial sphere (that) had broad, bipartisan support." Don't they all, especially in recent decades.

    He reviewed some of the worst past legislation and congressional actions, including:

    (1) the 1982 Garn-St. Germain Act that gave S & Ls a license to steal.

    (2) the 1987 Competitive Equality in Banking Act (CEBA).

    Reflecting on the double-dealing chicanery behind it, Black said his "psyche still bears the scars of this combined onslaught. It was the political equivalent of being on the receiving end of a B 52 Arc Light (carpet bombing) mission in Vietnam."

    (3) the 1993 "Reinventing Government" scam. It was premised on the view that anything government does, business does better, so let it. Deregulation went wild.

    (4) the 1995 Public Securities Litigation Reform Act (PSLRA) made it harder for fraud victims to sue. As a result, the financial sector became "more criminogenic." CEOs were licensed to loot with impunity. The 1998 PSLRA amendment was even more hostile to fraud victims.

    (5) the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. It repealed Glass-Steagall. The 1930s law separated commercial from investment banks and insurers, among other provisions curbing speculation.

    (6) the 2000 Commodities Futures Modernization Act. It's so bad, it was tucked away in an appropriations bill near the end of Clinton's tenure. It was his final public betrayal, and what a whopper to endorse.

    It legitimized "swap agreements" and other "hybrid instruments" at the core of today's problems. It prevented regulatory oversight of derivatives and leveraging. It made Wall Street a casino operating on only the house wins rules.

    Among other provisions, it contained the "Enron Loophole." Enron Online became the first Internet-based commodities transaction system. It rescinded regulations in place since 1922.

    Derivative scams went wild. Enron fleeced investors and energy purchasers with impunity until its house of cards collapsed.

     Alan Greenspan endorsed derivatives at the time. He lied calling them a way to share risks. They turned an economic downturn into the greatest Depression for most households. They're either impoverished, bordering on it, or heading for it before decade's end. A Clinton-Greenspan combo made it possible.

    Black could have listed many more legislative and deregulatory public betrayal examples, including Obama's so-called financial reform only bankers could love. They should. They wrote it. It assures business as usual codified into law under a reform mantle.

    Black moved on to the 2012 JOBS Act. He called it "the product of a feeding frenzy by lobbyists who are finally able to enact every fraud-friendly provision they ever dreamed of making law. The only kind of financial bill that can pass with overwhelming support is an anti-regulatory" one.

    The criminal class in Washington is bipartisan. FIRE sector (finance, insurance and real estate) companies are their largest contributors. Whatever they want, they get. Through the ages, greasing palms worked like charms. In large enough amounts, they always work.

    Black said financial crises embrace "three (bipartisan) 'de's' -- deregulation, desupervision, and de facto decriminalization." They create epidemics of fraud. Real reform's impossible. Greater crises are assured. Each time, looser restrictions follow. Economies, households, and lives are destroyed for profit.

    Since the late 1970s, America "trashed a regulatory system that was the envy of the world." Now it's a travesty.

    Black called the JOBS Act "insane on many levels. It creates an extraordinarily criminogenic environment in which securities fraud will become even more out of control."

    It continues a regulatory "race to the bottom. The only winning move is not to play...." The bill's rationale is deregulatory madness must be won. Otherwise the City of London and/or other financial centers will surpass us.

    Its passage ignored the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission's (FCIC) findings. It was established to determine the current crisis' cause. It explained the three "de's" problem. It specifically condemned "regulatory arbitrage." It revealed destructive deregulatory madness.

    The JOBS Act ignored expert anti-fraud input. The best, brightest, and most honest unanimously condemned the bill. Enacting it also bypassed others "who designed and implemented successful means to limit the crises, who prevented problems through effective supervision from becoming crises, and who held" criminal bankers accountable.

    Further, people who got everything wrong earlier designed the Act. Failure's institutionalized. So is fraud. What succeeds gets trashed.

    The unique aspect of today's crisis is that criminal bankers most responsible got off scot-free to steal again. They gained massive wealth and stand to gain much more.

    Earlier fraudsters were prosecuted. Not a single Wall Street boss or top official faced charges this time. The JOBS Act represents "the sick face of crony capitalism."

    Western-style capitalism reflects FIRE sector dominance over industry involved in making things. Financial giants are predators. We're prey. Parasitism describes their business model. In other words, the grandest of grand theft.

     A system this bad can only get worse. Money power alone matters. It's fraudulently manipulated to make more of it at the public's expense. Jobs are destroyed for greater profits. So are economies and peoples' lives. They're expendable to be exploited and trashed.

    The JOBS Act is "so fraud friendly that it will harm capital formation," create greater job losses, and raise poverty to record levels. At the same time, large-scale white-collar crimes are whitewashed. Instead of repudiating and prosecuting fraud, it's encouraged.

    The Act's opaqueness makes it easier than ever. We know, said Black, "this increases fraud." Instead of living and dying by it, Wall Street crooks thrive on it, courtesy of political Washington.

    Financial giants today are weapons of mass destruction. Freed from regulatory constraints, they extract wealth from households, investors, communities and nations. They operate like locust hordes consume vegetation with ease. Main Street feels their sting.

    A Final Comment

    In the 1980s, Russian comedian Yakov Smirnoff appeared on US television. His tag line about America was calling it "What a country!" In Soviet Russia, the "government control(led) corporations. In America, corporations control the government."

    Profiteering is a way of life, especially on Wall Street. "What a country" indeed, and the worst is yet to come. Bet on it!

    Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net.

    Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening.

    Thursday, March 29, 2012

    THE IERISSOS RESISTANCE

    By greydog, 99GetSmart.com
    On March 25, in northern Halkidiki, several people gathered in the town square, after the march by students of the Ierissos Gymnasium High School, wearing black armbands and raising clenched fists in front of an empty podium.
    At least 2500 residents of Ierissos formed a 15km convoy of cars and headed for the Great Lady. There, they marched to denounce gold mining operations on their mountain by the Greek mega corporation, Aktor and Canadian Eldorado Gold, who use employees and local riot police as mercenaries against the local community.
    The entrance to the mountain was cordoned off by riot police, who protect the occupation of the mountain for private corporations at the taxpayer’s expense. The riot police responded to the peaceful protesters with tear gas and by firing rubber bullets at the crowd, despite the presence of the elderly, women and children.
    The residents of Ierissos condemn the riot police for their cowardly attacks and for their willingness to provide protection to the private interests of corporations and foreign associates at the expense of the environment and the local community.
    The community’s list of demands include the immediate cessation of mining operations and the removal of riot police. They have also requested that the local prosecutor come to Ierissos to adjudicate between the two sides, with both sides fairly represented in the process.
    It is worth noting that this is the second time private citizen, George Bobolas of Aktor, has dispatched the local riot police to act as his private army against local communities. See The Keratea Resistance http://99getsmart.com/?p=235
    VIDEOS: MARCH 25, IERISSOS:

    Wednesday, March 28, 2012

    Newspaper readership collapsing as people turn to alternative news for truthful reporting

    (NaturalNews) Traditional, mainstream print news appears to be on the brink of collapse as more and more people turn to independent, primarily online news sources for information. A recent report from Financial Times explains how, from almost every angle, print newspapers are taking a major hit, not only with declines in readership, but also in flailing advertising revenues.

    Last year, the Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism put out its The State of the News Media 2011 report which found that more Americans now get their news from online sources rather than from print sources (http://www.technolog.msnbc.msn.com). And even though traditional newspapers are increasingly making the migration online, they are still losing $7 in print ads for every dollar in online ads they gain.

    News outlets that began online rather than in print seem to be faring just fine, on the other hand, as their advertising and other revenue sources were natively designed for the online environment to begin with. But for traditional mainstream news outlets that began in print, many of which are now owned by corporate conglomerates, the situation is dire.

    The controlled media is being exposed as a fraud on every front

    However, it is not simply that print is becoming "out of style" so much as it is that print news is largely controlled news, which an increasing number of Americans are growing to distrust. More than half of all Americans, in fact, have indicated that they do not trust the mainstream media to report fair, accurate, and balanced news, which is why many of them have turned to alternative news sources like NaturalNews and InfoWars for independent, full-disclosure coverage of current events (http://www.naturalnews.com/033667_mainstream_media_public_trust.html).

    "The media has essentially rendered itself irrelevant in the minds and the opinions of a large majority of Americans," said Don Debar, a political activist, to Press TV in a recent interview. "I am talking about the American media from CNN to FOX [News] and even including some of the so-called progressive media, like Democracy Now and Pacific Radio, where people do not look to them anymore for authoritative information (http://www.presstv.ir/detail/232461.html).

    Try as they might to gain back the monopoly on news they have lost to the independent media, both online and in print, the traditional print media will ultimately fail to maintain any sort of relevancy if it continues to censor the news as it has been for many years now. More Americans than ever are now awake to the shenanigans of the corporate controllers in major media, which means no amount of online savvy is going to make a difference in stopping the eventual collapse of the corporate news media, no matter how it re-brands itself.

    What is the leverage point for Occupy’s victory?

    This is my paper for The Center of Process Studies’ conference, Money-Creation in a Finite World (free and open to the public, April 10-12, 2012; Claremont Colleges, CA):
    Money and credit as public services for full-employment, optimal infrastructure, ending debt slavery: Epic proponents, related history of US government and corporate media, partnership for Occupy victory
    It’s divided into these 11 parts for articles (links added with each new section):
    Monetary and credit reform: full-employment, end of debt slavery
    Thomas Edison, Thomas Jefferson on monetary reform

    President Andrew Jackson, Peter Cooper on monetary reform
    NYC Mayor John Hylan, House Banking Committee Chairs on monetary reform
    Benjamin Franklin, William Jennings Bryan on monetary reform
    Charles Lindbergh Sr., 86% of Great Depression economists on monetary reform
    What should the average citizen know about US War Crimes?
    What should the average citizen know about US war history?
    What is the leverage point for Occupy’s victory?
    What does monetary and credit freedom look like?
    My personal history of the 1% choosing to kill a million children each month
    Summary:
    Monetary and credit reform is a policy objective to end transfer of trillions of the “99%’’’s wealth to an oligarchic “1%.” The US banking collusion only and always co-exists within a larger oligarchy with government for legal protection, and media for public propaganda. This paper presents histories in monetary reform and US government crimes in war suppressed by today’s US corporate media’s history texts and news journalism. When the oligarchy’s voice is professionally exposed as obviously and egregiously lying in omission and commission in claims of central importance of the past and present, government and corporate media loses credibility in an “emperor has no clothes” transformation. Refutation of the oligarchy’s voice with objective and independently verifiable facts, especially in light of current War Crimes and Constitutional destruction, supports our policy goal for monetary and credit reform because the public will seek alternative voices to build a brighter future. To support our goal of upgraded economic policies, we should be open to synergy with ecological and resource-based economic models, and network with Occupy.
    **********
    Is there a leverage point for our/Occupy’s victory?
    Yes: the arrest of the criminal 1% related to money/credit, government, and media. When the oligarchy is broken, we’ll have an opportunity to offer solutions through media with a chance to work in good faith for factual and comprehensive accuracy.
    The easiest area to initiate arrests and end the criminal elements preventing monetary and credit reform is perhaps US War Crimes/Wars of Aggression. Because it is they who pay the greatest price for expanding and endless US criminal wars, it is probable that factions of the US military have plans for a military coup. In fact, I hope honest US military leadership arrests and removes the criminals. I really don’t like alternative scenarios I’ve read and can imagine of either the 99%’s defeat or a cornered criminal 1% acting in desperation.
    Although I’ve been inviting the criminal 1% to have a “Scrooge conversion” and surrender
    [47] to a Truth and Reconciliation process for years, the end-game is perilous.
    This point is a big deal; its time seems near.
     “The people — the people — are the rightful masters of both Congresses, and courts — not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert it.” -  "Abraham Lincoln, [September 16-17, 1859] (Notes for Speech in Kansas and Ohio)," Page 2.
    footnotes:
    47 my latest offer: Herman, C. As 1% face extinction, Scrooge, Darth Vader, Professor Snape offer advice. Examiner.com. Feb. 22, 2012

    Tuesday, March 27, 2012

    Study: 18,520 Cases Of Black Swan Stock Market Manipulation In Last 5 Years

    Researchers planning a system to completely computerize stock market trading uncovered 18,520 instances of stock market manipulation between 2006 and 2011.

    If you are walking down the streets of New York City and you suddenly see a crowd rushing your way what to you do?
    Most likely you will assume the crowd is in panic because they fear for their lives and join them in running to save your own life and ask questions later.
    The same kind of herd mentality exists on Wall Street.
    With millions of dollars on the line the shares of the stock you are holding start to plummet into a free fall.
    The commotion grabs your attention and only thing you can decipher is a room full of people shouting at the market maker to sell, sell, sell.
    When everyone else in the room is dumping unloading their positions as the price tanks, you assume there must be some horrible news and jump in on the frenzy and dump your shares to limit your losses and ask what the bad news was after the fact.
    Mix tens of thousands of start of the art high-speed computers into the equation, with the ability to execute tens of thousands of trades per second and running highly complex algorithms designed to prey on this herd mentality, and you suddenly enter the shadowy underworld of Wall Street known as High Frequency Trading (HFT).
    These trading bots take advantage small differences in prices on the markets along with flaws in the market exchanges while roaming in a realm were executing a trade a few milliseconds faster than the next guy is equivalent to humans having insider information days in advance.
    As much as these automated borgs enjoy snacking on the savory taste of the retail investor’s life savings the real feast comes from cannibalizing their own kind.
    By flooding the system with thousands of sell orders, often spoofed or cancelled,  in just mere milliseconds, they trigger other bots to into panic and drive the price of whatever shares they target either up or down.
    In less time than a human can even react these bots earn their wage for the day and have changed the trajectory of the the shares they have targeted in a manner invisible to the human eye.
    Only by using other computers and examining the sequence of trades in the aftermath can one detect the ulfrafast financial black swan event that has just occurred.
    On March 23rd, the real-time data feed company NANAX did just that in catching high frequency traders using the same sophisticated computer trading algorithms to manipulate and crash silver prices.

    Traders Caught Using NASDAQ Exploit To Manipulate Silver Prices

    Hedge funds caught red-handed using flaws in the NASDAQ market exchange to manipulate the price silver using high-speed computer trading algorithms.

    Despite documented flaws in the way market exchanges handles high speed trades at high volumes, which are attributed to the DOW flash crash, electronic trading systems still have not been patched to fix the issue.
    The vulnerability stems from bad timestamps assigned to orders when traders flood the system which causes trades to executed on quotes before they even yet exist in the system.
    Earlier today high frequency traders were caught in act by NANEX taking advantage of the flaw to exploit the NASDAQ silver ETF by barraging the system with a whopping 75,000 trades per second.
    The exploit then triggered other trading robots to execute trades based on the high volume of trades quickly plummeting silver price.
    [...]
    Read The Rest…
    While I was under the impression that such things did indeed happen I assumed that they were a rare exception.
    I assumed only the greediest or most desperate traders would be foolish enough to risk getting caught engaging in such behavior, take for example the case of JP Morgan whose short position on silver would bankrupt the company if they allowed the price of silver to rise to high.
    However, I was completely taken off guard when Financial Sense followed up on March 23 silver crash and reported on an interview with Ted Butler.
    In the interview, Butler explains that the practices is not only limited to the silver market but,  quite to contrary, all markets are being manipulated by High Frequency Traders and very frequently.

    Silver Manipulation Caught in the Act; HFT Swamps NASDAQ with 75K SLV Sell Orders Per Second

    Ironically, just days after noted analyst Ted Butler came on the show to explain how silver and other markets are manipulated through the use of high frequency trading, the real-time data feed company, Nanex, showed how the silver ETF (SLV) was forced downwards by a rapid number of machine-generated quotes exceeding a rate of 75,000 per second. Before you start to think that this was merely a bunch of people hitting the sell button all at once, consider this: They were all launched within the space of 25 milliseconds—ten times faster than you and I can blink!
    Here’s a chart of the second by second market activity in SLV where you can see the massive lightning-quick spike occurring at 13:22:33.
    slv htf spike
    Source: Nanex

    Ted Butler Explains the Whole Process

    “What’s happening is that these commercials [or large traders], through HFT, can set the price suddenly down. It didn’t go down because there was massive selling from the commercials, they just set the price down. They know how to do it with their computers by putting in actual orders, and faking it, and spoofing, canceling them right away; but what happens is when the price moves down then the selling comes, which is the intended effect and result. Commercials basically put the price down in order to set off stops because everybody seems to be some type of technical trader in the market that reacts to prices.”
    (Click here for interview and full transcript)
    [...]
    Read The Rest…
    In the process of pointing the widespread and rampant manipulation of Wall Street stocks, the article references a newly released study Financial Black Swans Driven by Ultrafast Machine Ecology which truly provides some stunning insight.
    The study “looked at 600 different markets around the world and found that these sort of events happen routinely. Over the most recent five years of market data analyzed, 18,520 crashes and spikes occurred at a speed far exceeding human origin.”
    The report documented the 18,520 “ulfrafast financial black swans” during the time period between 2006 and 2011.
    Given there are approximately 252 trading days in a year, that equates to an average of  approximately 14.7 instances of stock market manipulation per day.
    With the trading day being 6 and half hours these stock manipulations are occurring, on average, 2.26 times per hour.
    Almost ironically, the purpose of the paper is to propose a system to control these rogue market manipulations so humans can be eliminated from the stock trading system and the entire platform can be placed under the control of automated computers systems.
    From the study:

    Financial black swans driven by ultrafast machine ecology

    Neil Johnson1, Guannan Zhao1, Eric Hunsader2, Jing Meng1, Amith Ravindar1, Spencer Carran1 and
    Brian Tivnan3,4
    1 Physics Department, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida 33124, U.S.A.
    2 Nanex LLC, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.
    3 The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA 22102, U.S.A.
    4 Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, U.S.A.

    ABSTRACT

    Society’s drive toward ever faster socio-technical systems1-3, means that there is an urgent need to understand the threat from ‘black swan’ extreme events that might emerge4-19. On 6 May 2010, it took just five minutes for a spontaneous mix of human and machine interactions in the global trading cyberspace to generate an unprecedented system-wide Flash Crash4. However, little is known about what lies ahead in the crucial sub-second regime where humans become unable to respond or intervene sufficiently quickly20,21. Here we analyze a set of 18,520 ultrafast black swan events that we have uncovered in stock-price movements between 2006 and 2011. We provide empirical evidence for, and an accompanying theory of, an abrupt system-wide transition from a mixed human-machine phase to a new all-machine phase characterized by frequent black swan events with ultrafast durations (<650ms for crashes, <950ms for spikes). Our theory quantifies the systemic fluctuations in these two distinct phases in terms of the diversity of the system’s internal ecology and the amount of global information being processed. Our finding that the ten most susceptible entities are major international banks, hints at a hidden relationship between these ultrafast ‘fractures’ and the slow ‘breaking’ of the global financial system post-2006. More generally, our work provides tools to help predict and mitigate the systemic risk developing in any complex socio-technical system that attempts to operate at, or beyond, the limits of human response times.
    From the study:

    Figure 1: Traded price during black swan events.

    HFT Stock Market Manipulation - Traded price during black swan events
    HFT Stock Market Manipulation - Traded price during black swan events


    (A) Crash. Stock symbol is ABK. Date is 11/04/2009. Number of sequential down ticks is 20. Price change is -0.22.  Duration is 25ms (i.e. 0.025 seconds). Percentage price change downwards is 14% (i.e. crash magnitude is 14%).
    (B) Spike. Stock symbol is SMCI. Date is 10/01/2010. Number of sequential up ticks is 31. Price change is +2.75. Duration is 25ms (i.e. 0.025 seconds). Percentage price change upwards is 26% (i.e. spike magnitude is 26%). Dots in price chart are sized according to size of trade.
    (C) Cumulative number of crashes (red) and spikes (blue) compared to overall stock market index (Standard & Poor’s 500) in black, showing daily close data from 3 Jan 2006 until 3 Feb 2011.


    Figure 2: Empirical transition in size distribution for black swans with duration above threshold r, as function of r.

    HFT Stock Market Manipulation - Empirical transition in size distribution for black swans
    HFT Stock Market Manipulation - Empirical transition in size distribution for black swans
    Top: Scale of times. 650 ms is the time for chess grandmaster to discern King is in checkmate.
    Plots show the results of the best-fit power-law exponent (black) and goodness-of-fit (blue) to the distributions for size of crashes and spikes separately, as shown in the inset schematic.

    Figure 3: Theoretical transition.
    HFT Stock Market Manipulation - Theoretical transition.
    HFT Stock Market Manipulation - Theoretical transition.
    Model output for the two regimes of strategy distribution among agents ( n = 2m+1 / N) together with timescales from Fig. 2 (top).
    n < 1 implies many agents per strategy, hence large crowding which produces frequent, large and abrupt price-changes, i.e. high number of short-duration (<< 1 second) black swans, as observed empirically.
    n> 1 implies very few, if any, agents per strategy, hence small crowding. Therefore large changes are rarer and last longer, i.e. low number of longer-duration black swans, as observed empirically.

    Figure 4: Prediction and mitigation of ultrafast black swans.

    HFT Stock Market Manipulation - Prediction and mitigation of ultrafast black swans
    HFT Stock Market Manipulation - Prediction and mitigation of ultrafast black swans
    (A) Theoretical black swan produced by our model, similar to Fig. 1A on an expanded timescale. Below are model’s node weights for m = 3 as a function of time, with blue and red denoting the weight values (see text and SI). The more blue the weight on node 0 (or the more red the weight on node 7) the more likely that a large price-drop (or rise) will occur when the model’s trajectory (green curve) hits that node.
    (B) Nodes shown as their binary and decimal equivalents (e.g. 000 is 0 in decimal) for m = 3. Red (blue) arrows represent transitions generating a bit-string update of 0 (1) and hence a price drop (rise).
    (C) Proposed mitigation scheme. Blue boxes show histogram of strategy possession for existing population, as an ‘occupancy’ in a two-dimensional space spanned by the possible strategy combinations for s = 2 strategies with m = 2. Red boxes are inserted agents, which can induce a steering effect to avoid the crash29 (red dotted line in Fig. 4A showing the mean of the resulting price movement). See text for discussion.