Bond Market Verdict: Treasuries Riskier Than Toilet Paper!

I have a lot of respect for Warren Buffett. As Nilus has noted before, he’s one of the world’s best long-term investors. He has a knack for buying low and selling high. And his Berkshire Hathaway holding company has been a great multi-year performer for investors.

It has amassed stakes in everything from the Geico insurance firm to the manufactured home company Clayton Homes to the Dairy Queen restaurant chain.

But Buffett can’t levy taxes on Americans. He can’t wage war in far corners of the world. He isn’t responsible for your Social Security checks. He doesn’t operate the National Park System or make sure the drugs we take are safe. That’s the job of the federal government.

And yet, a remarkable thing occurred recently in the bond market …

Berkshire’s cost of borrowing fell BELOW Uncle Sam’s! Ditto for Procter & Gamble, the company behind brands like Tide detergent and Charmin toilet paper … Lowe’s, the home improvement retailer … and Johnson & Johnson, the firm that makes Band-Aids, medical devices, and baby shampoo, according to Bloomberg.

Bottom line: Bond investors are now viewing Treasuries as riskier than a vast array of corporate debt. They’d rather own bonds backed by sales of toilet paper than the full faith and credit of the United States. If that’s not a sign of how low we’ve sunk, I don’t know what is!

The Proof Is in the Pudding —
The Daily Verdicts Handed Down
By Investors Worldwide

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner recently sat in front of ABC News cameras and made a solemn pledge. Asked about whether the U.S.’s credit rating would drop below AAA, he said, “Absolutely not.” For emphasis, he added, “That will never happen to this country.”

You know what though? Talk is cheap. Policymakers can bloviate all they want. But the bond market renders its verdict on the credit quality of everyone from municipalities to corporations to governments each and every trading day.

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway can now borrow money for less than the U.S. Treasury can.

The relative behavior of different types of bonds — and the credit default swaps that reference them — tells you everything you need to know about who is really in good shape, and who isn’t. And right now, the trading action proves the U.S. is guilty of running a profligate, debt-ridden operation, one that’s in worse shape than some American corporations.

The evidence? Bloomberg data shows the yield on Berkshire’s notes due in February 2012 dropped to 0.89 percent, 3.5 basis points below comparable-maturity Treasuries, in mid-March. Berkshire is officially rated AA+ by Standard & Poor’s, one notch below AAA.

Procter’s August 2012 notes slipped to 1.12 percent, beating Treasuries by 6 basis points. The consumer products company is rated AA-, three notches below the U.S.

J&J? Its August 2012 notes yielded 3 basis points less than Treasuries as of mid-February. Unlike the other companies, it is rated AAA. But still, you’re talking about an astounding thing here.

The Market Is Speaking.
Will Washington Listen?

Look, corporations don’t have the vast holdings, legal standing, or massive resources of sovereign nations. Their fortunes can rise and fall with the economy. They can go broke. Their bonds almost always trade with a yield “spread” to Treasuries to account for those additional risks.

But that’s starting to change …

U.S. policymakers are scaring investors away from Uncle Sam’s debt.

Because of the crazy “borrow, print, spend” policy here in the U.S., investors are backing away from sovereign debt and gravitating toward corporate securities. The auctions of $42 billion in 5-year Treasury notes and $32 billion in 7-year notes this week were stark examples of Uncle Sam’s fading fortunes. Bidding was weaker than expected and the Treasury was forced to offer generous yields to get the money it desperately needs. The message from the markets is loud and clear: Get your financial house in order … or we’ll FORCE you to do it!

Fortunately as a Money and Markets reader, you’ve been prepared for this day for some time. All the way back in December 2008, I proposed that long-term Treasuries were swept up in the “biggest bubble of all time.” I said that rising deficits, massive bailouts, and the out-of-control Fed would spook investors. Treasuries began plunging in price within days.

In mid-August of last year, I talked about the “never ending waves of debt” issuing forth from Washington. My explicit warning: “We are continuing to borrow and spend, borrow and spend, with no short-term or long-term plan on how to get all that debt under control.”

Then several weeks ago, I highlighted the debt market woes in the U.K. and postulated that the U.S. would soon find itself in the same boat. Sure enough, now our nation’s debt trades more weakly than securities backed by sales of manufactured homes and disposable razors. Fantastic, eh?

My continuing suggestion: Consider avoiding the debt of less credit-worthy entities (i.e. Uncle Sam) and sticking with those who deserve your money. If that means avoiding government debt and buying high-grade corporates instead, so be it.

Until next time,

Mike

South Korean navy ship sinks, North link played down

South Korean naval ship Cheonan patrols the sea in an unidentified location in the territorial waters of South Korea in this undated file picture released by local Yonhap news agency in Seoul March 26, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Yonhap/Files

SEOUL (Reuters) - A South Korean naval ship sank near the disputed maritime border with North Korea, killing some of the more than 100 crew on board, but officials played down suggestions that it may have been attacked by the North.

(Reuters) - A South Korean naval ship sank near the disputed maritime border with North Korea, killing some of the more than 100 crew on board, but officials played down suggestions that it may have been attacked by the North.

A defense ministry official later said that the unidentified object the vessel had fired at on Friday night near the western sea border that divides the two Koreas may well have been a flock of birds.

Initial fears that North Korea might be to blame caused ripples on Wall Street, where share prices dipped partly on geopolitical concerns, and the South Korean won dropped against the dollar.

"It is premature to discuss the cause of this sinking," presidential Blue House spokeswoman Kim Eun-hye told Reuters early on Saturday. "It is not clear whether North Korea was involved."

The Joint Chiefs of Staff also said it could not conclude that the reclusive North was behind the attack.

Yonhap news agency quoted a presidential official as saying satellite pictures and other information showed no sign of the North Korean military in the area at the time of the sinking.

The defense ministry said 58 of the 104 on board had been rescued and Yonhap quoted navy officials as saying several had died.

"An unidentified reason caused a hole in the ship, which led to its sinking. Currently 58 have been rescued out of the total 104 on board. Rescue efforts are under way," the ministry said.

"The ship fired a warning shot at an unidentified object, and the object was later suspected to have been a flock of birds. But we are checking."

Earlier, South Korean media had quoted officials as saying the North could have torpedoed the ship.

COLD SHOULDER

The sinking comes as the impoverished North has become increasingly frustrated by its wealthy neighbor, which has given the cold-shoulder to recent attempts to reopen a lucrative tourist business on the northern side of the Cold War's last frontier.

It also coincides with mounting pressure on Pyongyang to end a more than one-year boycott of international talks to end its efforts to build a nuclear arsenal.

Reports of a possible naval clash saw the won weaken roughly 0.45 percent against the dollar and were cited by analysts as one reason for a dip in U.S. stocks.

The price to insure Korean sovereign debt rose to 83 basis points from 78 basis points in the wake of the news, according to two trading sources. That means the cost to insure $10 million in South Korean debt increased by $5,000 to $83,000.

Markets have become used to saber-rattling by North Korea and occasional brief border skirmishes, and dips in response to such incidents tend to be quickly reversed.

In Seoul, the government held an emergency security meeting following the incident.

The ship sank near the disputed Yellow Sea border off the west coast of the peninsula which was the scene of two deadly naval fights between the rival Koreas in the past decade.

Navies from the rival Koreas exchanged gunfire for the first time in seven years in the Yellow Sea waters in November, damaging vessels on both sides.

The international community has been pressuring the North to give up efforts to build nuclear weapons, promising help for its broken economy if it does so.

There has been widespread speculation that North Korea's iron ruler, Kim Jong-il, was about to visit China, his only significant ally and on which he has depended almost entirely for economic aid after a new conservative government in Seoul effectively ended years of free-flowing assistance.

A London trader walks the CFTC through a silver manipulation in advance

Additional Statement by Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Washington, D.C., March 25, 2010

On March 23, 2010, GATA Director Adrian Douglas was contacted by a whistleblower by the name of Andrew Maguire. Maguire is a metals trader in London. He has been told first-hand by traders working for JPMorganChase that JPMorganChase manipulates the precious metals markets, and they have bragged to how they make money doing so.

In November 2009 Maguire contacted the CFTC enforcement division to report this criminal activity. He described in detail the way JPMorgan Chase signals to the market its intention to take down the precious metals. Traders recognize these signals and make money shorting the metals alongside JPM. Maguire explained how there are routine market manipulations at the time of option expiry, non-farm payroll data releases, and COMEX contract rollover, as well as ad-hoc events.

On February 3 Maguire gave two days' warning by e-mail to Eliud Ramirez, a senior investigator for the CFTC's Enforcement Division, that the precious metals would be attacked upon the release of the non-farm payroll data on February 5. On February 5, as market events played out exactly as predicted, further e-mails were sent to Ramirez while the manipulation was in progress.

It would not be possible to predict such a market move unless the market was manipulated.

In an e-mail on February 5 Maguire wrote: "It is common knowledge here in London among the metals traders that it is JPM's intent to flush out and cover as many shorts as possible prior to any discussion in March about position limits. I feel sorry for all those not in this loop. A serious amount of money was made and lost today and in my opinion as a result of the CFTC's allowing by your own definition an illegal concentrated and manipulative position to continue."

Expiry of the COMEX April call options is tomorrow, March 26. There was large open interest in strikes from $1,100 to $1,150 in gold. As always happens month after month, HSBC and JPM sell short in large quantities to overwhelm all bids and make unsuspecting option holders lose their money. As predicted by GATA, the manipulation started on March 19, when gold was trading at $1,126. Last night it traded at $1,085.

This is how much the gold cartel fears the CFTC's enforcement division. They thumb their noses at you because in more than a decade of complaints and 18 months of a silver market manipulation investigation nothing has been done to stop them. And this is why JPM's cocky and arrogant traders in London are able to brag that they manipulate the market.

This is an outrage and we are making available to the press the e-mails from Maguire wherein he warns of a manipulative event.

Additionally Maguire informed us that he has tape recordings of his telephone communications with the CFTC, which we are taking the appropriate legal steps to acquire.

* * *

From: Andrew Maguire
Sent: Tuesday, January 26, 2010 12:51 PM
To: Ramirez, Eliud [CFTC]
Cc: Chilton, Bart [CFTC]
Subject: Silver today

Dear Mr. Ramirez:

I thought you might be interested in looking into the silver trading today. It was a good example of how a single seller, when they hold such a concentrated position in the very small silver market, can instigate a selloff at will.

These events trade to a regular pattern and we see orchestrated selling occur 100% of the time at options expiry, contract rollover, non-farm payrolls (no matter if the news is bullish or bearish), and in a lesser way at the daily silver fix. I have attached a small presentation to illustrate some of these events. I have included gold, as the same traders to a lesser extent hold a controlling position there too.

Please ignore the last few slides as they were part of a training session I was holding for new traders.

I brought to your attention during our meeting how we traders look for the "signals" they (JPMorgan) send just prior to a big move. I saw the first signals early in Asia in thin volume. As traders we profited from this information but that is not the point as I do not like to operate in a rigged market and what is in reality a crime in progress.

As an example, if you look at the trades just before the pit open today you will see around 1,500 contracts sell all at once where the bids were tiny by comparison in the fives and tens. This has the immediate effect of gaining $2,500 per contract on the short positions against the long holders, who lost that in moments and likely were stopped out. Perhaps look for yourselves into who was behind the trades at that time and note that within that 10-minute period 2,800 contracts hit all the bids to overcome them. This is hardly how a normal trader gets the best price when selling a commodity. Note silver instigated a rapid move lower in both precious metals.

This kind of trading can occur only when a market is being controlled by a single trading entity.

I have a lot of captured data illustrating just about every price takedown since JPMorgan took over the Bear Stearns short silver position.

I am sure you are in a better position to look into the exact details.

It is my wish just to bring more information to your attention to assist you in putting a stop to this criminal activity.

Kind regards,
Andrew Maguire

* * *

From: Ramirez, Eliud [CFTC]
To: Andrew Maguire
Sent: Wednesday, January 27, 2010 4:04 PM
Subject: RE: Silver today

Mr. Maguire,

Thank you for this communication, and for taking the time to furnish the slides.

* * *

From: Andrew Maguire
To: Ramirez, Eliud [CFTC]
Cc: BChilton [CFTC]
Sent: Wednesday, February 03, 2010 3:18 PM
Subject: Re: Silver today

Dear Mr. Ramirez,

Thanks for your response.

Thought it may be helpful to your investigation if I gave you the heads up for a manipulative event signaled for Friday, 5th Feb. The non-farm payrolls number will be announced at 8.30 ET. There will be one of two scenarios occurring, and both will result in silver (and gold) being taken down with a wave of short selling designed to take out obvious support levels and trip stops below. While I will no doubt be able to profit from this upcoming trade, it is an example of just how easy it is to manipulate a market if a concentrated position is allowed by a very small group of traders.

I sent you a slide of a couple of past examples of just how this will play out.

Scenario 1. The news is bad (employment is worse). This will have a bullish effect on gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakens and the precious metals draw bids, spiking them higher. This will be sold into within a very short time (1-5 mins) with thousands of new short contracts being added, overcoming any new bids and spiking the precious metals down hard, targeting key technical support levels.

Scenario 2. The news is good (employment is better than expected). This will result in a massive short position being instigated almost immediately with no move up. This will not initially be liquidation of long positions but will result in stops being triggered, again targeting key support levels.

Both scenarios will spell an attempt by the two main short holders to illegally drive the market down and reap very large profits. Locals such as myself will be "invited" on board, which will further add downward pressure.

The question I would expect you might ask is: Who is behind the sudden selling and is it the entity/entities holding a concentrated position? How is it possible for me to know what will occur days before it will happen?

Only if a market is manipulated could this possibly occur.

I would ask you watch the "market depth" live as this event occurs and tag who instigates the move. This would surly help you to pose questions to the parties involved.

This kind of "not-for-profit selling" will end badly and risks the integrity of the COMEX and OTC markets.

I am aware that physical buyers in large size are awaiting this event to scoop up as much "discounted" gold and silver as possible. These are sophisticated entities, mainly foreign, who know how to play the short sellers and turn this paper gold into real delivered physical.

Given that the OTC market (where a lot of the selling occurs) runs on a fractional reserve basis and is not backed up by 1-1 physical gold, this leveraged short selling, where ownership of each ounce of gold has multi claims, poses a very large risk.

I leave this with you, but if you need anything from me that might help you in your investigation I would be pleased to help.

Kind regards,
Andrew T. Maguire

* * *

From: Andrew Maguire
To: Ramirez, Eliud [CFTC]
Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 2:11 PM
Subject: Fw: Silver today

If you get this in a timely manner, with silver at 15.330 post data, I would suggest you look at who is adding short contracts in the silver contract while gold still rises after NFP data. It is undoubtedly the concentrated short who has "walked silver down" since Wednesday, putting large blocks in the way of bids. This is clear manipulation as the long holders who have been liquidated are matched by new short selling as open interest is rising during the decline.

There should be no reason for this to be occurring other than controlling silver's rise. There is an intent to drive silver through the 15 level stops before buying them back after flushing out the long holders.

Regards,
Andrew

* * *

From: Andrew Maguire
To: Ramirez, Eliud [CFTC]
Cc: BChilton [CFTC]; GGensler [CFTC]
Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 3:37 PM
Subject: Fw: Silver today

A final e-mail to confirm that the silver manipulation was a great success and played out EXACTLY to plan as predicted yesterday. How would this be possible if the silver market was not in the full control of the parties we discussed in our phone interview? I have honored my commitment not to publicize our discussions.

I hope you took note of how and who added the short sales (I certainly have a copy) and I am certain you will find it is the same concentrated shorts who have been in full control since JPM took over the Bear Stearns position.

It is common knowledge here in London among the metals traders that it is JPM's intent to flush out and cover as many shorts as possible prior to any discussion in March about position limits. I feel sorry for all those not in this loop. A serious amount of money was made and lost today and in my opinion as a result of the CFTC's allowing by your own definition an illegal concentrated and manipulative position to continue.

Bart, you made reference to it at the energy meeting. Even if the level is in dispute, what is not disputed is that it exists. Surely some discussions should have taken place between the parties by now. Obviously they feel they can act with impunity.

If I can compile the data, then the CFTC should be able to too.

I would think this is an embarrassment to you as regulators.

Hoping to get your acknowledgement.

Kind regards,
Andrew T. Maguire

* * *

From: Andrew Maguire
To: Ramirez, Eliud [CFTC]
Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 7:47 PM
Subject: Fw: Silver today

Just logging off here in London. Final note.

Now that gold is undergoing short covering, please look at market depth right now in silver and evidence the large selling blocks in a thin market being put in the way of silver regaining the technical 15 level, which would cause a short covering rally and new longs being instigated. This is resulting in the gold-silver ratio being stretched to ridiculous levels.

I hope this day has given you an example of how silver is "managed" and gives you something more to work with.

If this was long manipulation in, say, the energy market, the shoe would be on the other foot, I suspect.

Have a good weekend.

Andrew

* * *

From: Andrew Maguire
Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 8:24 AM
To: Ramirez, Eliud [CFTC]
Cc: Gensler, Gary; Chilton, Bart [CFTC]
Subject: Fw: Silver today

Dear Mr. Ramirez,

I hadn't received any acknowledgement from you regarding the series of e-mails sent by me last week warning you of the planned market manipulation that would occur in silver and gold a full two days prior to the non-farm payrolls data release.

My objective was to give you something in advance to watch, log, and follow up in your market manipulation investigation.

You will note that the huge footprints left by the two concentrated large shorts were obvious and easily identifiable. You have the data.

The signals I identified ahead of the intended short selling event were clear.

The "live" action I sent you 41 minutes after the trigger event predicting the next imminent move also played out within minutes and exactly as I outlined.

Surely you must at least be somewhat mystified that a market move could be forecast with such accuracy if it was free trading.

All you have to do is identify the large seller and if it is the concentrated short shown in the bank participation report, bring them to task for market manipulation.

I have honored my commitment to assist you and keep any information we discuss private,however if you are going to ignore my information I will deem that commitment to have expired.

All I ask is that you acknowledge receipt of my information. The rest I leave in your good hands.

Respectfully yours,

Andrew T. Maguire

* * *

From: Ramirez, Eliud
To: Andrew Maguire
Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 1:29 PM
Subject: RE: Silver today

Good afternoon, Mr. Maguire,

I have received and reviewed your email communications. Thank you so very much for your observations.

It's Time To Legalize Marijuana! Judge Napolitano

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Are Americans a Broken People? Why We've Stopped Fighting Back Against the Forces of Oppression

A psychologist asks: Have consumerism, suburbanization and a malevolent corporate-government partnership so beaten us down that we no longer have the will to save ourselves?

Can people become so broken that truths of how they are being screwed do not "set them free" but instead further demoralize them? Has such a demoralization happened in the United States?

Do some totalitarians actually want us to hear how we have been screwed because they know that humiliating passivity in the face of obvious oppression will demoralize us even further?

What forces have created a demoralized, passive, dis-couraged U.S. population?

Can anything be done to turn this around?

Can people become so broken that truths of how they are being screwed do not "set them free" but instead further demoralize them?

Yes. It is called the "abuse syndrome." How do abusive pimps, spouses, bosses, corporations, and governments stay in control? They shove lies, emotional and physical abuses, and injustices in their victims' faces, and when victims are afraid to exit from these relationships, they get weaker. So the abuser then makes their victims eat even more lies, abuses, and injustices, resulting in victims even weaker as they remain in these relationships.

Does knowing the truth of their abuse set people free when they are deep in these abuse syndromes?

No. For victims of the abuse syndrome, the truth of their passive submission to humiliating oppression is more than embarrassing; it can feel shameful -- and there is nothing more painful than shame. When one already feels beaten down and demoralized, the likely response to the pain of shame is not constructive action, but more attempts to shut down or divert oneself from this pain. It is not likely that the truth of one's humiliating oppression is going to energize one to constructive actions.

Has such a demoralization happened in the U.S.?

In the United States, 47 million people are without health insurance, and many millions more are underinsured or a job layoff away from losing their coverage. But despite the current sellout by their elected officials to the insurance industry, there is no outpouring of millions of U.S. citizens on the streets of Washington, D.C., protesting this betrayal.

Polls show that the majority of Americans oppose U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the taxpayer bailout of the financial industry, yet only a handful of U.S. citizens have protested these circumstances.

Remember the 2000 U.S. presidential election? That's the one in which Al Gore received 500,000 more votes than George W. Bush. That's also the one that the Florida Supreme Court's order for a recount of the disputed Florida vote was overruled by the U.S. Supreme Court in a politicized 5-4 decision, of which dissenting Justice John Paul Stevens remarked: "Although we may never know with complete certainty the identity of the winner of this year's presidential election, the identity of the loser is perfectly clear. It is the nation's confidence in the judge as an impartial guardian of the rule of law." Yet, even this provoked few demonstrators.

When people become broken, they cannot act on truths of injustice. Furthermore, when people have become broken, more truths about how they have been victimized can lead to shame about how they have allowed it. And shame, like fear, is one more way we become even more psychologically broken.

U.S. citizens do not actively protest obvious injustices for the same reasons that people cannot leave their abusive spouses: They feel helpless to effect change. The more we don't act, the weaker we get. And ultimately to deal with the painful humiliation over inaction in the face of an oppressor, we move to shut-down mode and use escape strategies such as depression, substance abuse, and other diversions, which further keep us from acting. This is the vicious cycle of all abuse syndromes.

Do some totalitarians actually want us to hear how we have been screwed because they know that humiliating passivity in the face of obvious oppression will demoralize us even further?

Maybe.

Shortly before the 2000 U.S. presidential election, millions of Americans saw a clip of George W. Bush joking to a wealthy group of people, "What a crowd tonight: the haves and the haves-more. Some people call you the elite; I call you my base." Yet, even with these kind of inflammatory remarks, the tens of millions of U.S. citizens who had come to despise Bush and his arrogance remained passive in the face of the 2000 non-democratic presidential elections.

Perhaps the "political genius" of the Bush-Cheney regime was in their full realization that Americans were so broken that the regime could get away with damn near anything. And the more people did nothing about the boot slamming on their faces, the weaker people became.

What forces have created a demoralized, passive, dis-couraged U.S. population?

The U.S. government-corporate partnership has used its share of guns and terror to break Native Americans, labor union organizers, and other dissidents and activists. But today, most U.S. citizens are broken by financial fears. There is potential legal debt if we speak out against a powerful authority, and all kinds of other debt if we do not comply on the job. Young people are broken by college-loan debts and fear of having no health insurance.

The U.S. population is increasingly broken by the social isolation created by corporate-governmental policies. A 2006 American Sociological Review study ("Social Isolation in America: Changes in Core Discussion Networks over Two Decades") reported that, in 2004, 25 percent of Americans did not have a single confidant. (In 1985, 10 percent of Americans reported not having a single confidant.) Sociologist Robert Putnam, in his 2000 book, Bowling Alone, describes how social connectedness is disappearing in virtually every aspect of U.S. life. For example, there has been a significant decrease in face-to-face contact with neighbors and friends due to suburbanization, commuting, electronic entertainment, time and money pressures and other variables created by governmental-corporate policies. And union activities and other formal or informal ways that people give each other the support necessary to resist oppression have also decreased.

We are also broken by a corporate-government partnership that has rendered most of us out of control when it comes to the basic necessities of life, including our food supply. And we, like many other people in the world, are broken by socializing institutions that alienate us from our basic humanity. A few examples:

Schools and Universities: Do most schools teach young people to be action-oriented -- or to be passive? Do most schools teach young people that they can affect their surroundings -- or not to bother? Do schools provide examples of democratic institutions -- or examples of authoritarian ones?

A long list of school critics from Henry David Thoreau to John Dewey, John Holt, Paul Goodman, Jonathan Kozol, Alfie Kohn, Ivan Illich, and John Taylor Gatto have pointed out that a school is nothing less than a miniature society: what young people experience in schools is the chief means of creating our future society. Schools are routinely places where kids -- through fear -- learn to comply to authorities for whom they often have no respect, and to regurgitate material they often find meaningless. These are great ways of breaking someone.

Today, U.S. colleges and universities have increasingly become places where young people are merely acquiring degree credentials -- badges of compliance for corporate employers -- in exchange for learning to accept bureaucratic domination and enslaving debt.

Mental Health Institutions: Aldous Huxley predicted today's pharmaceutical societyl "[I]t seems to me perfectly in the cards," he said, "that there will be within the next generation or so a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude."

Today, increasing numbers of people in the U.S. who do not comply with authority are being diagnosed with mental illnesses and medicated with psychiatric drugs that make them less pained about their boredom, resentments, and other negative emotions, thus rendering them more compliant and manageable.

Oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) is an increasingly popular diagnosis for children and teenagers. The official symptoms of ODD include, "often actively defies or refuses to comply with adult requests or rules," and "often argues with adults." An even more common reaction to oppressive authorities than the overt defiance of ODD is some type of passive defiance -- for example, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Studies show that virtually all children diagnosed with ADHD will pay attention to activities that they actually enjoy or that they have chosen. In other words, when ADHD-labeled kids are having a good time and in control, the "disease" goes away.

When human beings feel too terrified and broken to actively protest, they may stage a "passive-aggressive revolution" by simply getting depressed, staying drunk, and not doing anything -- this is one reason why the Soviet empire crumbled. However, the diseasing/medicalizing of rebellion and drug "treatments" have weakened the power of even this passive-aggressive revolution.

Television: In his book Four Arguments for the Elimination of Television (1978), Jerry Mander (after reviewing totalitarian critics such as George Orwell, Aldous Huxley, Jacques Ellul, and Ivan Illich) compiled a list of the "Eight Ideal Conditions for the Flowering of Autocracy."

Mander claimed that television helps create all eight conditions for breaking a population. Television, he explained, (1) occupies people so that they don't know themselves -- and what a human being is; (2) separates people from one another; (3) creates sensory deprivation; (4) occupies the mind and fills the brain with prearranged experience and thought; (5) encourages drug use to dampen dissatisfaction (while TV itself produces a drug-like effect, this was compounded in 1997 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration relaxing the rules of prescription-drug advertising); (6) centralizes knowledge and information; (7) eliminates or "museumize" other cultures to eliminate comparisons; and (8) redefines happiness and the meaning of life.

Commericalism of Damn Near Everything: While spirituality, music, and cinema can be revolutionary forces, the gross commercialization of all of these has deadened their capacity to energize rebellion. So now, damn near everything – not just organized religion -- has become "opiates of the masses."

The primary societal role of U.S. citizens is no longer that of "citizen" but that of "consumer." While citizens know that buying and selling within community strengthens that community and that this strengthens democracy, consumers care only about the best deal. While citizens understand that dependency on an impersonal creditor is a kind of slavery, consumers get excited with credit cards that offer a temporarily low APR.

Consumerism breaks people by devaluing human connectedness, socializing self-absorption, obliterating self-reliance, alienating people from normal human emotional reactions, and by selling the idea that purchased products -- not themselves and their community -- are their salvation.

Can anything be done to turn this around?

When people get caught up in humiliating abuse syndromes, more truths about their oppressive humiliations don't set them free. What sets them free is morale.

What gives people morale? Encouragement. Small victories. Models of courageous behaviors. And anything that helps them break out of the vicious cycle of pain, shut down, immobilization, shame over immobilization, more pain, and more shut down.

The last people I would turn to for help in remobilizing a demoralized population are mental health professionals -- at least those who have not rebelled against their professional socialization. Much of the craft of relighting the pilot light requires talents that mental health professionals simply are not selected for nor are they trained in. Specifically, the talents required are a fearlessness around image, spontaneity, and definitely anti-authoritarianism. But these are not the traits that medical schools or graduate schools select for or encourage.

Mental health professionals' focus on symptoms and feelings often create patients who take themselves and their moods far too seriously. In contrast, people talented in the craft of maintaining morale resist this kind of self-absorption. For example, in the question-and-answer session that followed a Noam Chomsky talk (reported in Understanding Power: The Indispensable Chomsky, 2002), a somewhat demoralized man in the audience asked Chomsky if he too ever went through a phase of hopelessness. Chomsky responded, "Yeah, every evening . . ."

If you want to feel hopeless, there are a lot of things you could feel hopeless about. If you want to sort of work out objectively what's the chance that the human species will survive for another century, probably not very high. But I mean, what's the point? . . . First of all, those predictions don't mean anything -- they're more just a reflection of your mood or your personality than anything else. And if you act on that assumption, then you're guaranteeing that'll happen. If you act on the assumption that things can change, well, maybe they will. Okay, the only rational choice, given those alternatives, is to forget pessimism."

A major component of the craft of maintaining morale is not taking the advertised reality too seriously. In the early 1960s, when the overwhelming majority in the U.S. supported military intervention in Vietnam, Chomsky was one of a minority of U.S. citizens actively opposing it. Looking back at this era, Chomsky reflected, "When I got involved in the anti-Vietnam War movement, it seemed to me impossible that we would ever have any effect. . . So looking back, I think my evaluation of the 'hope' was much too pessimistic: it was based on a complete misunderstanding. I was sort of believing what I read."

An elitist assumption is that people don't change because they are either ignorant of their problems or ignorant of solutions. Elitist "helpers" think they have done something useful by informing overweight people that they are obese and that they must reduce their caloric intake and increase exercise. An elitist who has never been broken by his or her circumstances does not know that people who have become demoralized do not need analyses and pontifications. Rather the immobilized need a shot of morale.

S.Korea navy opens fire after ship sunk: Yonhap

South Korea's navy opened fire Friday at an unidentified ship in the Yellow Sea near the North Korean border after one of its own ships was sunk, Yonhap news agency said.

Companies say health care costs hard to swallow

The health care overhaul will cost U.S. companies billions and make them more likely to drop prescription drug coverage for retirees because of a change in how the government subsidizes those benefits.

In the first two days after the law was signed, three major companies — Deere & Co., Caterpillar Inc. and Valero Energy — said they expect to take a total hit of $265 million to account for smaller tax deductions in the future.

With more than 3,500 companies now getting the tax break as an incentive to keep providing coverage, others are almost certain to announce similar cost increases in the weeks ahead as they sort out the impact of the change.

Figuring out what it will mean for retirees will take longer, but analysts said as many as 2 million could lose the prescription drug coverage provided by their former employers, leaving them to enroll in Medicare's program.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs defended the tax law change Thursday, saying the original provision allowing companies to deduct the federal subsidies from their taxable income was a "loophole" that will be closed by the health care overhaul.

For the government, the tax changes are expected to raise roughly $4.5 billion over the next decade to help pay for the health overhaul. Some of the savings would be negated by retirees enrolling in the Medicare plans.

"You're increasing the incentive for companies to say 'We don't want to be in the health care business any more,'" said James Gelfand, senior manager of health policy for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which fought the overhaul.

American industrial companies that are struggling to compete globally against companies with much lower labor costs are particularly likely to eventually drop retiree coverage, said Gene Imhoff, an accounting professor at the University of Michigan.

"Anything that they can use to justify pushing something away from the employees, pushing it back on the employees or the government, they're going to do it," Imhoff said. "I'm not sure you can really blame them for trying to do this."

Caterpillar spokesman Jim Dugan said the company is still studying the health care law and doesn't yet know what the full impact will be. But he acknowledged that benefit changes are possible.

"Obviously, there's greater cost pressures on us that could drive changes to plans, but we haven't made any decisions on that," Dugan said.

Spokesmen for Deere and Valero said it was to soon to say how the change would affect the benefits they offer retirees.

When Congress approved the Medicare prescription drug program in 2003, it included government incentives for employers to provide drug benefits to retirees so the public system wouldn't be overwhelmed. Employers that provide prescription drug benefits for retirees can receive subsidies covering 28 percent of eligible costs; those subsidies totaled $3.7 billion in 2008.

Under the 2003 law, companies could deduct the entire amount they spent on the drug benefits from their taxable income — including the government subsidy, an average of $665 per retiree.

The health care law signed by President Barack Obama on Tuesday prohibits companies from writing off the subsidies starting in 2011, meaning they will no longer be able to deduct them from their taxable income.

For example, if a company spent $100 on benefits, including a $28 government subsidy, it could write off the full $100 on its taxes under the old rules. The new rules would allow the same company to write off only $72.

The follow-up health care bill to reshape parts of the overhaul would delay the changes until 2013.

As many as 1.5 million to 2 million retirees could lose the drug benefits provided by their former employer because of the tax changes, according to a study by the Moran Company, a health care consulting firm.

James Klein, president of the American Benefits Council, said between 6 million and 7 million retirees currently get the benefits. But the number of companies offering them has been dwindling for years.

Generally, retirees would prefer to stay with prescription drug coverage provided by their companies as opposed to enrolling in a Medicare Part D plan, said Marilyn Moon, a health care economist with the nonpartisan American Institutes for Research.

She said most of the company-sponsored plans are more generous and almost none have the coverage gap that comes with Part D plans.

"That's particularly painful and problematic for people who have substantial expenses at any one point in time," she said.

Industry groups say they lobbied hard against the change in the tax rules before it was added to the health care law over the winter.

"It was in all of our letters and communications that went up to the Hill, and the companies were heavily involved in that," said Dena Battle, a tax specialist with the National Association of Manufacturers.

Nationwide, companies would take a $14 billion hit on their financial statements if all of the roughly 3,500 companies receiving the subsidies continued to do so, according to a study by Towers Watson, a human resources consulting firm.

That financial hit will be a one-time cost as companies report a new cost estimate for the benefits over the life spans of all retirees.

Deere and Caterpillar were among a group of 10 companies that sent a letter to congressional leaders in December warning of the cost increases. The others were Boeing Co., Con-Way Inc., Exelon Corp., Navistar Inc., Verizon, Xerox Corp., Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and MetLife Inc.

Most of the other companies that signed the letter said Thursday that it was too soon to estimate their costs. A number of other major U.S. companies also said they did not know how much the tax change would cost them. Some companies might wait until they release their earnings reports next quarter to address the costs so they have time to review the entire law.

The companies that signed the December letter warned that changing the way retiree drug benefits are subsidized would have a broad impact on the economy, and there are already indications that the effects will trickle down to individuals.

Consumers Energy, a Michigan gas and electric company with 2.9 million customers, said it will not take a big first-quarter charge because, like most utility companies, it can try to recover the added costs from its customers through rate hikes.

___

AP Business Writers Daniel Wagner in Washington, Tom Murphy in Indianapolis and Tom Krisher in Detroit and Associated Press Writers Stephen Ohlemacher and Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar in Washington contributed to this report.

Social Security to See Payout Exceed Pay-In This Year

The bursting of the real estate bubble and the ensuing recession have hurt jobs, home prices and now Social Security.

This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expected to cross until at least 2016, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Stephen C. Goss, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, said that while the Congressional projection would probably be borne out, the change would have no effect on benefits in 2010 and retirees would keep receiving their checks as usual.

The problem, he said, is that payments have risen more than expected during the downturn, because jobs disappeared and people applied for benefits sooner than they had planned. At the same time, the program’s revenue has fallen sharply, because there are fewer paychecks to tax.

Analysts have long tried to predict the year when Social Security would pay out more than it took in because they view it as a tipping point — the first step of a long, slow march to insolvency, unless Congress strengthens the program’s finances.

“When the level of the trust fund gets to zero, you have to cut benefits,” Alan Greenspan, architect of the plan to rescue the Social Security program the last time it got into trouble, in the early 1980s, said on Wednesday.

That episode was more dire because the fund could have fallen to zero in a matter of months. But partly because of steps taken in those years, and partly because of many years of robust economic growth, the latest projections show the program will not exhaust its funds until about 2037.

Still, Mr. Greenspan, who later became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, said: “I think very much the same issue exists today. Because of the size of the contraction in economic activity, unless we get an immediate and sharp recovery, the revenues of the trust fund will be tracking lower for a number of years.”

The Social Security Administration is expected to issue in a few weeks its own numbers for the current year within the annual report from its board of trustees. The administration has six board members: three from the president’s cabinet, two representatives of the public and the Social Security commissioner.

Though Social Security uses slightly different methods, the official numbers are expected to roughly track the Congressional projections, which were one page of a voluminous analysis of the federal budget proposed by President Obama in January.

Mr. Goss said Social Security’s annual report last year projected revenue would more than cover payouts until at least 2016 because economists expected a quicker, stronger recovery from the crisis. Officials foresaw an average unemployment rate of 8.2 percent in 2009 and 8.8 percent this year, though unemployment is hovering at nearly 10 percent.

The trustees did foresee, in late 2008, that the recession would be severe enough to deplete Social Security’s funds more quickly than previously projected. They moved the year of reckoning forward, to 2037 from 2041. Mr. Goss declined to reveal the contents of the forthcoming annual report, but said people should not expect the date to lurch forward again.

The long-term costs of Social Security present further problems for politicians, who are already struggling over how to reduce the nation’s debt. The national predicament echoes that of many European governments, which are facing market pressure to re-examine their commitments to generous pensions over extended retirements.

The United States’ soaring debt — propelled by tax cuts, wars and large expenditures to help banks and the housing market — has become a hot issue as Democrats gauge their vulnerability in the coming elections. President Obama has appointed a bipartisan commission to examine the debt problem, including Social Security, and make recommendations on how to trim the nation’s debt by Dec. 1, a few weeks after the midterm Congressional elections.

Although Social Security is often said to have a “trust fund,” the term really serves as an accounting device, to track the pay-as-you-go program’s revenue and outlays over time. Its so-called balance is, in fact, a history of its vast cash flows: the sum of all of its revenue in the past, minus all of its outlays. The balance is currently about $2.5 trillion because after the early 1980s the program had surplus revenue, year after year.

Now that accumulated revenue will slowly start to shrink, as outlays start to exceed revenue. By law, Social Security cannot pay out more than its balance in any given year.

For accounting purposes, the system’s accumulated revenue is placed in Treasury securities.

In a year like this, the paper gains from the interest earned on the securities will more than cover the difference between what it takes in and pays out.

Mr. Goss, the actuary, emphasized that even the $29 billion shortfall projected for this year was small, relative to the roughly $700 billion that would flow in and out of the system. The system, he added, has a balance of about $2.5 trillion that will take decades to deplete. Mr. Goss said that large cushion could start to grow again if the economy recovers briskly.

Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office’s projection shows the ravages of the recession easing in the next few years, with small surpluses reappearing briefly in 2014 and 2015.

After that, demographic forces are expected to overtake the fund, as more and more baby boomers leave the work force, stop paying into the program and start collecting their benefits. At that point, outlays will exceed revenue every year, no matter how well the economy performs.

Mr. Greenspan recalled in an interview that the sour economy of the late 1970s had taken the program close to insolvency when the commission he led set to work in 1982. It had no contingency reserve then, and the group had to work quickly. He said there were only three choices: raise taxes, lower benefits or bail out the program by tapping general revenue.

The easiest choice, politically, would have been “solving the problem with the stroke of a pen, by printing the money,” Mr. Greenspan said. But one member of the commission, Claude Pepper, then a House representative, blocked that approach because he feared it would undermine Social Security, changing it from a respected, self-sustaining old-age program into welfare.

Mr. Greenspan said that the same three choices exist today — though there is more time now for the painful deliberations.

“Even if the trust fund level goes down, there’s no action required, until the level of the trust fund gets to zero,” he said. “At that point, you have to cut benefits, because benefits have to equal receipts.”

Stephanie Strom contributed reporting.

Half of U.S. Home Loan Modifications Default Again (Update1)

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- More than half of U.S. borrowers who received loan modifications on delinquent mortgages defaulted again after nine months, according to a federal report.

The re-default rate of loans modified in the first quarter of 2009 was 51.5 percent by the end of the year, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in a joint report today. The figure, which measures payments at least 30 days late, climbed to 57.9 percent for changes made in the prior 12 months.

U.S. homeowners are struggling to make payments as depressed housing prices leave them owing more than their properties are worth. About 24 percent of properties with a mortgage were underwater in the fourth quarter, First American CoreLogic said last month. The median price of a U.S. home was $165,100 in February, down 28 percent from its peak in July 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Modifications are “clearly not working well and it’s not a surprise,” said Sam Khater, a senior economist at First American CoreLogic in Tysons Corner, Virginia. “It’s pointless to rewrite these loans because they’re underwater.”

The number of homes with mortgage payments at least 60 days late climbed 2.39 million in the fourth quarter, up 13.1 percent from the prior three months and 49.6 percent from the year earlier period, the quarterly Mortgage Metrics report said.

Obama Program

President Barack Obama’s administration is pressuring lenders to alter loans to reduce the number of properties lost to foreclosure. About 4.5 million foreclosures filings are expected in 2010, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of default data.

A government watchdog report released today criticized the government’s main foreclosure prevention effort, the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, for “spreading out the foreclosure crisis” over several years by failing to help enough troubled borrowers.

“The program will not be a long-term success if large amounts of borrowers simply re-default and end up facing foreclosure anyway,” said the report by the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, prepared for a Congressional hearing today.

Assistant Treasury Secretary Herb Allison defended the program at the Congressional hearing, saying it has shown signs of stabilizing the housing market.

Before HAMP

The Mortgage Metrics data are based mostly on modifications made before HAMP, Joe Evers, deputy for large bank supervision at the Comptroller of the Currency, said in a phone interview today. Permanent loan changes under the government program accounted for only 21,000 of the total 594,000 modification plans initiated during the fourth quarter of 2009, making it too soon to evaluate the effectiveness of that plan, Evers said.

There were 168,708 delinquent loans permanently modified under HAMP as of the end of February, according to a Treasury Department report March 12.

Borrowers were more likely to default when their monthly payments aren’t reduced enough in modifications to make staying in a home affordable, Evers said.

“Our data show that when you reduce payments by 20 percent or more you have a tendency for lower re-default rates,” he said from Washington.

Bank Modifications

The Mortgage Metrics report tracks 34 million mortgages with an outstanding balance of $6 trillion and is based on data from nine national banks and three thrifts. The data represent more than 64 percent of all first-lien mortgages.

Modified loans in the portfolio of banks -- as opposed to loans owned by investors or government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- had the best record of avoiding re-default, the Mortgage Metrics report said.

The banks are free to design modification plans for individual borrowers, Bruce Krueger, a mortgage banking expert with the Office of the Comptroller, said in a phone interview. The HAMP program requires lenders to follow a path of concessions to modify loans, beginning with interest rate reductions, extended loan terms and principal forebearance.

“It’s a very rigid process,” Krueger said of the HAMP program. “If the loan is on the bank’s books itself, the servicer can do whatever the bank might allow.”

Unemployment benefits set to expire April 5

Unemployment benefits are set to expire for at least a week on April 5, as Congress plans to break for two weeks without agreeing on an extension of the program.

Last week, the House approved a $9 billion measure containing one-month extensions of unemployment insurance, COBRA health benefits and federal flood insurance. Senate Democrats hoped to have their chamber approve the same bill Thursday. But Republicans refused, complaining that the bill is not offset with spending cuts elsewhere.

They said the same thing in early March, when Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) brought the chamber to a halt for five days over another extension that wasn't offset.

Senate Democrats and Republicans spent hours negotiating among themselves and with each other to find a compromise. Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) discussed the possibility of a one- or two-week extension of benefits that would be fully paid for, but Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was opposed to the idea, according to two Senate aides.

As a result, the House and Senate will leave town without further action. COBRA and flood insurance will expire March 30, and unemployment benefits will expire April 5. The Senate will return to session April 12.

"This will be our first item of business when we come back," said Reid spokesman Jim Manley, who added that the programs in question would be extended retroactively to make up for the time they were expired.

The Senate GOP's refusal to agree to the House's version of the bill was led by Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), who objected to bringing up the bill. Coburn said that by adding to the federal deficit, we are "stealing future opportunity from our children."

But Democrats -- emboldened by the public relations victory they believe they won during Bunning's stand -- laid blame for the impasse at the feet of Coburn and his fellow Republicans.

"It is our hope Republicans will realize the damage they are causing and stop standing in the way of this much-needed assistance for out-of-work Americans," Reid said.

Oil rises to near $81 as US dollar weakens

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices rose to near $81 a barrel Friday in Asia as the U.S. dollar weakened, making dollar-based commodities cheaper for investors with other currencies.

Benchmark crude for May delivery was up 28 cents to $80.81 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 8 cents to settle at $80.53 on Thursday.

The euro rose to $1.3338 on Friday from $1.3277 on Thursday while the dollar slipped to 92.50 yen from 92.66.

Crude has meandered in the low $80s for about the last two weeks as investors look for signs global oil demand is growing. Some analysts expect U.S. demand to pickup and offset weak European consumption.

"Overall, U.S. oil demand is definitely improving, laying the foundations for a broad-based recovery ... notwithstanding the weakness in Europe," Barclays Capital said in a report.

"Thus, we continue to see oil prices consolidating in its current $75 to $85 range and on course to gradually move higher to $80 to $90."

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil rose 0.79 cent to $2.077 a gallon, and gasoline gained 0.33 cents to $2.221 a gallon. Natural gas was steady at $3.974 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude was up 31 cents at $79.92 on the ICE futures exchange.

State job situation improving, but jobless rate gets worse

Iowa’s unemployment rate climbed another notch in February to 6.7 percent, although state officials see signs of “tenuous” improvement deeper in the numbers.

“Iowa’s nonfarm employment has been in positive territory for two consecutive months, a sign that the state’s tenuous recovery may be gaining momentum,” Iowa Workforce Development Director Elisabeth Buck said in prepared remarks.

The number of Iowans classified as unemployed climbed by 1,800 in February to 112,500. That compared to 89,300 in February 2009, an increase of 26 percent.

Nonfarm employment increased 700 from January to February, however, and most of the broad employment sectors posted increases in employment for the month.

Nonfarm employment is still down 33,600 from February 2008. The number of layoffs dropped in the final months of 2009, state officials said.

Manufacturing employment was one of the hardest hit areas year-over-year, showing a decline of 13,200. Trade and transportation lost 6,900 jobs, while construction lost 5,600.

The numbers for the Cedar Rapids metro area paralleled the statewide trend.

Unemployment in the three-county Cedar Rapids Metropolitan Statistical Area climbed from 7.3 percent in January to 7.4 percent in February, the highest of any MSA in Iowa. The unemployment rate for the City of Cedar Rapids was 6.9 percent, up from 6.8 percent in January.

Iowa City’s metro unemployment rate declined slightly from 5.1 percent to 5 percent, the lowest of any MSA in the state. The rate for the Iowa City municipal area was 3.8 percent, down from 3.9 percent.

Allamakee County had a 12 percent unemployment rate that was the state’s highest. Seven counties in the state had double-digit unemployment.