Over the past month there has been a statistically improbable
concurrence of events that can only be explained as a conspiracy to
protect the dollar from the
Federal Reserve's policy of Quantitative Easing (QE).
Quantitative Easing is the term given to the Federal Reserve's policy
of printing 1,000 billion new dollars annually in order to finance the
US budget deficit by purchasing US Treasury bonds and to keep the prices
high of debt-related derivatives on the "banks too big to fail" (BTBF)
balance sheets by purchasing mortgage-backed derivatives. Without QE,
interest rates would be much higher, and values on the banks' balance
sheets would be much lower.
Quantitative Easing has been underway since December 2008. During
these 54 months, the Federal Reserve has created several trillion new
dollars with which the Fed has monetized the same amount of debt.
One result of this policy is that most real US interest rates are
negative. Another result is that the supply of dollars has outstripped
the world's demand for dollars.
These two results are the reason that the Federal Reserve's policy of
printing money with which to purchase Treasury bonds and mortgage
backed derivatives threatens the dollar's exchange value and, thus, the
dollar's role as world reserve currency.
To be the world reserve currency means that the dollar can be used to
pay any and every country's oil bills and trade deficit. The dollar is
the medium of international payment.
This is very helpful to the US and is the main source of US power.
Because the dollar is the reserve currency, the US can cover its import
costs and pay for its cost of operation simply by creating its own
paper money.
If the dollar were not the reserve currency, Washington would not be
able to finance its wars or continue to run large trade and budget
deficits. Therefore, protecting the exchange value of the dollar is
Washington's prime concern if it is to remain a superpower.
The threats to the dollar are alternative monies–currencies that are not being created in enormous quantities,
gold and silver, and
Bitcoins, a digital currency.
The Bitcoin threat was eliminated on May 17 when the Gestapo
Department of Homeland Security seized Bitcoin's accounts. The excuse
was that Bitcoin had failed to register in keeping with the US
Treasury's anti-money laundering requirements.
Washington has stifled the threat from other currencies by convincing
other large currencies to out-print the dollar. Japan has complied, and
the
European Central Bank,
though somewhat constrained by Germany, has entered the printing mode
in order to bail out the private banks endangered by the "
sovereign debt crisis."
That leaves gold and silver. The enormous increase in the prices of
gold and silver over the last decade convinced Washington that there are
a number of miscreants who do not trust the dollar and whose numbers
must not be permitted to increase.
The price of gold rose from $272 an ounce in December 2000 to
$1,917.50 on August 23, 2011. The financial gangsters who own and run
America panicked. With the price of the dollar collapsing in relation to
historical real money, how could the dollar's exchange rate to other
currencies be valid? If the dollar's exchange value came under attack,
the Federal Reserve would have to stop printing and would lose control
over interest rates.
The bond and stock market bubbles would pop, and the interest
payments on the federal debt would explode, leaving Washington even more
indebted and unable to finance its wars,
police state, and
bankster bailouts.
Something had to be done about the rising price of gold and silver.
There are two bullion markets. One is a paper market in New York,
Comex, where paper claims to gold are traded. The other is the physical
market where personal possession is taken of the metal–coin shops,
bullion dealers, jewelry stores.
The way the banksters have it set up, the price of bullion is not set
in the markets in which people actually take possession of the metals.
The price is set in the paper market where speculators gamble.
This bifurcated market gave the Federal Reserve the ability to protect the dollar from its printing press.
On Friday, April 12, 2013, short sales of gold hit the New York
market in an amount estimated to have been somewhere between 124 and 400
tons of gold. This enormous and unprecedented sale implies an illegal
conspiracy of sellers intent on rigging the market or action by the
Federal Reserve through its agents, the BTBF that are the bullion banks.
The enormous sales of naked shorts drove down the gold price,
triggering stop-loss orders and margin calls. The attack continued on
Monday, April 15, and has continued since.
Before going further, note that there are position limits imposed on
the number of contracts that traders can sell at one time. The 124 tons
figure would have required 14 traders with no open interest on the
exchange to sell all together in the same few minutes 40,000 futures
contracts. The likelihood of so many traders deciding to short at the
same moment at the maximum permitted is not believable. This was an
attack ordered by the Federal Reserve, which is why there is no
investigation of the illegality.
Note also that no seller that wanted out of a position would give
himself a low price by dumping an enormous amount all at once unless the
goal was not profit but to smash the bullion price.
Since the April 12-15 attack on the gold price, subsequent attacks
have occurred at 2pm Hong Kong time and 2 am New York time. At this time
activity is light, waiting on London to begin operating. As William
S.Kaye has observed, no entity concerned about profits would choose this
time to sell 20,000 to 30,000 futures contracts, but this is what has
been happening.
Who can be unconcerned with losing money in this way? Only a
central bank that can print it.
Now we come to the physical market where people take possession of bullion instead of betting on paper instruments. Look at
this chart
from ZeroHedge. The demand for physical possession is high, despite the
assault on gold that began in 2011, but as the price is set in the
non-real paper market, orchestrated short sales, as in the current
quarter of 2013, can drive down the price regardless of the fact that
the actual demand for gold and silver cannot be met.
While the corrupt Western financial press urges people to abandon
bullion, everyone is trying to purchase more, and the premiums above the
spot price have risen. Around the world there is a shortage of gold and
silver in the forms, such as one-ounce coins and ten-ounce bars, that
individuals demand.
That the decline in gold and silver prices is an orchestration is
apparent from the fact that the demand for bullion in the physical
market has increased while naked short sales in the paper market imply a
flight from bullion.
What does this illegal manipulation of markets by the Federal Reserve
tell us? It tells us that the Federal Reserve sees no way out of
printing money in order to support the federal deficit and the insolvent
banks. If the dollar came under attack and the Federal Reserve had to
stop printing dollars, interest rates would rise. The bond and stock
markets would collapse. The dollar would be abandoned as reserve
currency. Washington would no longer be able to pay its bills and would
lose its
hegemony. The world of hubristic Washington would collapse.
It remains to be seen whether Washington can prevail over the world
demand for gold and silver. Can the dollar remain supreme when
offshoring has deprived the US of the ability to cover its imports with
exports? Can the dollar remain supreme when the Federal reserve is
creating 1,000 billion new ones each year, while the
BRICS,
China and Japan, China and Australia, and China and Russia are making
deals to settle their trade balances without the use of the dollar?
If the consumption-based US economy deprived of consumer income by
jobs offshoring takes a further dip down in the third or fourth
quarter–a downturn that cannot be masked by phony statistical
releases–the federal deficit will rise. What will be the effect on the
dollar if the Federal Reserve has to increase its Quantitative Easing?
A perfect storm has been prepared for America. Real interest rates
are negative, but debt and money are being created hand over foot. The
dollar's demise awaits the world's decision how to get out of it. The
Federal Reserve can print dollars with which to keep the bond and stock
markets high, but the Federal Reserve cannot print foreign currencies
with which to keep the dollar afloat.
When the dollar goes, Washington's power goes, which is why the
bullion market is rigged. Protect the power. That is the agenda. Is it
another Washington over-reach?
Bitcoin Note: On May 16, PCWorld reported: "The seizure of funds of
the largest bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, was triggered by an alleged
failure of the company to comply with U.S. financial regulations,
according to a federal court document. The U.S. District Court in
Maryland on Tuesday ordered the seizure of Mt. Gox's funds, which were
in an account with Dwolla, a payments company that transferred money
from U.S. citizens to Mt. Gox for buying and selling the virtual
currency bitcoin."
Reports subsequent to my column suggest that instead of funds being
seized, a money transfer mechanism was shut down. Whatever happened, the
government has demonstrated that it can disable or destroy Bitcoin at
will. Bitcoin might be tolerated unless it becomes widely used. If the
government regards Bitcoin as a refuge from the dollar, it can simply
have its agents buy up the Bitcoins, driving the price skyhigh, and then
dump the purchases all at once, just as tons of gold shorts were dumped
on the gold market.
Bitcoin showed its vulnerability in April when, according to news
reports, someone gave away $13,627 worth of Bitcoins, and Bitcoin values
crashed from $265 to $105. Some people who watch this market concluded
that the exercise was a covert central bank stress test.
The fact that I reported on Bitcoin does not mean that I oppose
Bitcoin. The point of my article is to demonstrate that the government
will take all steps to protect the dollar from Quantitative Easing.
This column was originally published at PaulCraigRoberts.org and
is reprinted here with the author's position. Dr. Roberts was Assistant
Secretary of the US Treasury for Economic Policy in the Reagan
Administration. He was associate editor and columnist with the Wall
Street Journal, columnist for Business Week and the Scripps Howard News
Service. He has had numerous university appointments. His latest book, The Failure of
Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West
is available here.