Whodunit? Sneak attack on U.S. dollar

It’s the biggest mystery in global finance right now: Who conducted a sneak attack on the U.S. dollar this week?

It began with a thinly sourced but highly explosive report Monday in a British newspaper: Arab oil sheiks are conspiring with the Russians and Chinese to quit using the dollar to set the value of oil trades — a direct threat to the global supremacy of the greenback.

Is it true? Everyone from the head of the Saudi central bank to U.S. officials scrambled to undercut the story, but no matter.

With the U.S. economy on the ropes and America by far the world’s biggest debtor, investors aren’t feeling as secure about the dollar as they used to. And the notion of second-tier economies ganging up on Uncle Sam didn’t sound so far-fetched.

For American officials, the possibility of the dollar losing its long-term dominance in global commerce is a nightmare scenario because it would likely mean sharply higher interest rates at home and a declining ability to finance the U.S. debt. No one believes it could really happen right now, but stories like the British report this week make it seem incrementally more likely.

So the piece by Robert Fisk of the Independent shocked currency traders around the world and almost instantly sent the value of the U.S. dollar spiraling downward and the price of gold skyrocketing to an all-time high, as a hedge against a weakened dollar.

The website drudgereport.com quickly amplified the impact of the story with a headline atop the site: ARAB STATES LAUNCH SECRET MOVES WITH CHINA, RUSSIA, FRANCE TO STOP USING DOLLAR FOR OIL TRADING ...

“You read that story, and you do two things: You sell the hell out of dollars and you buy gold,” said Les Alperstein, president of the financial research firm Washington Analysis. “The story has a lot of credibility, with some caveats.”

So who wanted dollars diving and gold rising? In other words, who is Fisk’s source, and why did he or she want to tank the dollar? It’s the global currency version of the old Washington parlor game of speculating on the real identity of Deep Throat.

No one knows.

But one thing is for certain: With the price of gold jumping to $1,048.20 per ounce, traders who moved early enough stood to make millions.

So in government circles in Washington, speculation immediately centered on gold traders: With the skyrocketing price of gold, they’d be the biggest beneficiaries of the article.

Fisk’s story itself isn’t much help in solving the mystery — it is sourced vaguely to “Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong,” and it included one blind quote, attributed to “a prominent Hong Kong broker.” That doesn’t narrow down the pool very much.

By EAMON JAVERS

Argentina’s Economic Collapse

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Jim Rogers Says Gold Could Hit $2000 Over Next Decade - Bloomberg- 10.7.09

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Preparing Americans for Hyperinflation

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Gerald Celente on Jeff Rense 10/07/2009 – The Greatest Depression

Agriculture Will Reap Big Profits - Jim Rogers CNBC 10.07.09

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Peter Schiff Gold to Hit $5,000 Per Ounce 07 Oct 2009

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U.S. Stands By as Dollar Falls

The dollar fell to a 14-month low against other currencies Thursday, intensifying a trend that the Obama administration has publicly suggested it opposes -- but which it appears prepared to tolerate quietly.

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Many of America's trading partners, however, are pushing the other way. In Asia, traders said central banks in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong again intervened to slow the dollar's fall against their currencies.

Asian officials fear that the dollar's fall could crimp their export-driven economies. "The [Thai] baht has appreciated a little too rapidly compared with our fundamentals," said Suchada Kirakul, assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand.

In Europe, where the strength of the euro is clouding prospects for export growth, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said Thursday that the stated U.S. "'strong-dollar policy' is extremely important in the present circumstances."

The dollar, down 11.9% against a basket of currencies since President Barack Obama took office, fell an additional 0.7% Thursday. The yen ended the day at 88.48 per dollar, the lowest level since December 2008. In early trading Friday in Asia, the dollar inched up after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that once the recovery takes hold, the U.S. will need to raise interest rates. He didn't give any timeframe for the action.

The U.S. Treasury had no comment on the dollar Thursday. In Istanbul this week, following meetings with other finance ministers, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said, "It's very important to the United States that we continue to have a strong dollar....We're going to do everything necessary to make sure we sustain confidence."

Except for Mr. Trichet, however, few seem to take that statement at face value. "The U.S. is willing to talk about a strong dollar, but not willing to do anything about it," said Jonathan Clark, vice chairman at FX Concepts, an $8 billion New York hedge fund. "If you're not going to back up words with actions, it's just talk." A Treasury spokesman declined to comment.

There are, as yet, no hints the weakening dollar is ringing alarm bells in Washington -- and that's unlikely to change unless the decline turns into a confidence-shattering crash, a possibility that some analysts have been predicting for years.

For now, a weaker dollar tends to help U.S. exports, by making them cheaper abroad, a welcome development at a moment of domestic economic weakness. Cheaper U.S. goods overseas could help achieve the long-sought "rebalancing" of the global economy where the U.S. exports more, and others, including China, import more. The rebalancing "is a healthy, necessary transition," Mr. Geithner said last month.

While the statement appears to contradict the administration's official position of favoring a strong dollar, Mr. Obama and other administration officials have said the U.S. needs to become less dependent on domestic consumption. Although they won't say this means a weaker dollar, many traders and economists take it is an implicit condition for achieving this rebalancing, and it is one reason why few take the strong dollar talk at face value.

Despite the dollar's plunge, stock prices have held up. Indeed, given that 40% of pretax profits of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index come from abroad, according to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates, a weaker dollar can fuel a rise in U.S. stocks.

At the same time, interest rates that the Treasury has to pay on its borrowing have stayed down. As long as that is the case -- and the dollar's decline is gradual -- Obama administration officials are likely to stay on the sidelines while they stick to a "strong dollar" mantra. The dollar was left notably unmentioned in the communiqué issued by the Group of Seven finance ministers this week after meeting in Istanbul.

A weakening dollar would worry Federal Reserve officials if it appears to be raising market and consumer expectations of higher inflation. So far, such expectations don't appear to be widespread, though gold prices, sometimes seen as an inflation harbinger, hit a record this week and are up to $1,056 an ounce.

Still, some argue a weakening currency could destabilize the financial system. "With the exploding federal debt, the enlarged Fed balance sheet, and proposals by [some] countries to look for dollar substitutes, a policy of benign neglect is particularly risky now and could lead to more instabilities," said John Taylor, a Stanford economist and prominent critic of U.S. financial rescue policies.

The daily ups and downs of the dollar, a preoccupation of traders, are dismissed by some policymakers.

"Foreign exchange markets are manic-depressive mechanisms just like every other market I've ever operated in. You have to be careful not to read too much into short-term movements," said Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "If we get it right, meaning if we get our economy back up and we don't do it with any risk to price stability on the downside or the upside, then I think the dollar will be fine."

In Washington, the recent weakening is seen as a sign that markets are normalizing. During the financial crisis, investors around the world fled to the safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing the value of the dollar up. Now, some are shedding dollars to buy other assets.

In addition, some economies are recovering faster than others. Australia's central bank, for instance, raised interest rates earlier this week as its economy regains its vigor. The Australian dollar Thursday rose to a 14-month high against the U.S. dollar, and is up 3.6% since the central bank raised rates.

Higher interest rates tend to boost a currency's value by luring global investments. With the Fed holding short-term rates close to zero, a move by another central bank to boost rates will tend to lift its currency against the dollar. During the crisis, the Fed flooded the world with dollars to help get financial markets moving, a move that largely drew applause. But the increase in the supply of dollars, at some point, will reduce its value, particularly as the U.S. government borrows more from abroad to finance its budget deficit.

If foreign investors lose faith in the U.S. currency and slow their purchases of U.S. government debt, interest rates could rise and that would hurt growth.

At times in the past, U.S. officials have tweaked their rhetoric to signal concern. Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin repeated the mantra "a strong dollar is in the U.S. interest" so often that traders stopped listening. One day he added "and we have had a strong dollar for some time now," to send a signal the dollar was rising too much.

By JON HILSENRATH and MARK GONGLOFF

—David Roman contributed to this article.

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Celente The Dollar is Finished

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Bankruptcy Filings Spiking: Chapter 7 Booming and 8 Years of Credit Card Industry Lobbying and $100 Million in Fees.

There is probably no bigger sign of economic distress than bankruptcy. It can be in the form of a business unable to pay debt obligations or an individual simply unable to keep up with former obligations. Most people that file for bankruptcy are not in a good economic spot. In fact, if you want a better indicator of economic health bankruptcy filings are a good measure. It is interesting what passes for good news in today’s market. For example, Alcoa announced a profit for the third quarter. Good news right? Well if you look into the details the company has cut 18,000 jobs in the 12 months ending on June 30^th and also planned on cutting an additional $2.4 billion in costs. In this economic crisis people need to look at the details before assuming something is just good news.

Bankruptcy data doesn’t hide this. Since new legislation went into law in 2005, bankruptcy has been harder to file. So the recent increase in filings makes it all the more troubling:

Since 2005 the rise in quarterly bankruptcy filings has been steady. This is indicative of the nature of the current deep recession. The average American is feeling the strain of the high unemployment rate and the country is combating a market that is not willing to hire (i.e., Alcoa cutting jobs). And recent bankruptcy filing data is showing the trend still moving up. The latest data that we have is for August and it showed 119,874 consumer bankruptcy filings and that is a jump of 24 percent from last year.

You would think that with the massive amount of capital in banks, that lending would be easier so that would mitigate filings in the short-term but banks are not lending to consumers. Early this week we saw the continuing contraction in consumer credit:

Now these data points are important because they show what is really happening on Main Street. Wall Street is being pumped up by easy credit provided by the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve but most Americans don’t pay their monthly bills because the S&P 500 went up 10 points. Bankruptcy is the ultimate sign of distress. That is, someone has reached the point of financially being unable to meet obligations. This isn’t like missing one bill payment. This is someone sitting and looking at all their obligations and throwing in the towel.

Keep in mind that this new change comes in light of the 2005 tougher bankruptcy laws. That is why in the above, the chart shows a dramatic spike. What changed in 2005? A wide group of consumer advocates, legal scholars, and retired bankruptcy judges questioned the soundness of the legislation and recommended against it. The credit card industry lobbied hard. The contention was that bankruptcy was wrought with fraud. There wasn’t much data backing up that assertion but remember that in 2005 the good times were going on so hardly anyone was paying attention and the legislation was jammed through. The major changes included means testing but also shifting people into Chapter 13 instead of Chapter 7. The big difference here is with Chapter 13 people filing have to work out some kind of agreement to rework their obligations while in Chapter 7, current debts are paid from current assets. Of course this shifts the burden completely on the consumer instead of lenders actually spending the time to be more diligent. This worked perfectly in a mega housing bubble world. Take a look at Chapter 7 even in light of the tougher legislation:

The biggest proponents of the bill were the credit card industry. In fact, the credit card industry spent 8 years and $100 million in lobbying for this effort. If you look at the legislation, it actually enforces a means test by looking at your state median income. If you are at your state median income, you will not be able to qualify for Chapter 7 if you can pay 25 percent of the unsecured debt. What it does is that it allowed for credit card companies to give anyone and anything credit while shifting the burden to the states and consumers. Once things go bad as they are right now, credit is yanked from the system and now debtors are being forced to pay any penny they have to the credit card companies.

In the new legislation counseling is also required. Yet what about counseling for the credit card companies? The bill is a lobbyist dream and we are seeing the ramifications of this bill today. In fact, if it wasn’t for the bill we would be seeing tens of thousands more filing for Chapter 7 today but people are holding off because what use would it be to go into Chapter 13 and still need to pay off your debts?

What many of the credit card companies didn’t see however was the massive rise in unemployment. In fact, with 26 million unemployed and underemployed I’m sure many will be falling below the state median income test thus allowing people to file for Chapter 7 and liquidate. Unsecured debt like credit card loans are usually washed away in court hence the big lobbying by the credit card industry. So this is becoming a more likely option and as the chart shows above, more are opting for this. Take a look at brief breakdown of how this plays out:

Source: Bankruptcyaction

Only in some bizarre universe is spiking bankruptcies, foreclosures, and unemployment some sign of a rebounding economy.

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新加坡‧佛總主席：因果自負‧是否還俗由明義決定

（新加坡）佛總主席廣聲法師說︰“要不要脫下袈裟，得由明義自己作出選擇。”

有公眾認為，明義既然被定罪了，就不應該再穿上袈裟，佛總主席廣聲法師週四（10月8日）早上受訪時說，出家是一個人的自由選擇，要不要穿袈裟也是自由選擇。

廣聲法師說，明義曾經轟轟烈烈，如今走到這個地步，佛總對此表示失望與惋惜，但認為明義是“因果自負”。

相信新加坡司法公正

他說︰“這是明義的個人所為，發生這樣的事大家都不好受，他自己都說要負這個因果。”

廣聲法師表示，佛總對新加坡司法有信心，相信司法公正。

他也相信，明義被判有罪不會動搖大眾對佛法的信心。

他說，學佛之人是依法不依人，佛法指導人生的方向，即使代表性的人出了事，也不會動搖大家對佛法的信心，因為一切因果自負。

明義被定罪，他還能繼續出任福海禪寺的住持嗎？福海禪寺職員說，這交由理事會作出決定。

該理事會最近才開過一次會，下一次會議是在明年1月。

另一方面，明義在2004年卸下佛總秘書長一職，過後不再擔任任何職務，直到2006年退出佛總會籍。

32歲借31萬給仁慈
法官也驚訝

明義是富僧，32歲就有31萬元借給仁慈，連法官都感到驚訝。

47歲的明義法師週三被判罪名成立，卓永昌法官是在發表長達58頁的判詞中，揭露明義年輕時就有這麼一筆錢能借給仁慈。

法官說，辯方曾提出，明義在1994年和2002年，分別借出31萬元和30萬元的現款給仁慈。兩筆款項都是在沒有擔保人、免利息和沒有附帶任何付款期限下借出的。

法官說，明義在1994年只是一名32歲的僧人，竟然會有31萬元的現款借給仁慈，令人感到震驚。

記得楊志恆信用卡賬
明義指忘記5萬借款很奇怪

法官質疑，明義可以記得楊志恆欠了多少的信用卡帳，為甚麼會忘記5萬元的借款？

法官指出，明義和楊志恆關係密切，卻沒有問楊志恆房屋貸款批了沒有，也沒有多問他買房子的細節。

可是，借出5萬元後的4個月，明義和楊志恆卻雙雙到墨爾本聯名買房子，並填了一張他們各擁有的產業房貸申請表格。在申請表格上，楊志恆並沒有注明他擁有房子，明義也沒有想起楊志恆借錢在香港買房子的事，這是很奇怪的。

另外，明義為楊志恆申請了不少信用卡附屬卡，而明義指他有記錄信用卡帳單以及楊志恆還了多少。法官認為，明義如果可以這樣做，他忘記5萬元借款的事情是很奇怪的。

法官：有錢享高級生活
無需過度重視明義貢獻

法官表示，無需過度重視明義對仁慈的貢獻。

法官在判詞中指出，控方提出證據，明義在澳州有產業、有馬、有豪華轎車還有俱樂部會員，這些消費都顯示，明義雖然為仁慈盡力，他的犧牲並不那麼大，因為他有剩餘的錢享受高素質生活。

法官說，在被安永會計所問及上述情況時，明義回復說他是“摩登和尚”，雖然這並不代表明義會犯法，不過他聲稱為仁慈犧牲一切的說法的可信度就大大減少了。

公眾失望
“應與佛教劃清界線”

明義法師被判有罪，公眾表示對他感到失望，甚至認為他應該脫下袈裟還俗。

明義事件引起廣大民眾的關注，他週三被判罪名成立後，受訪的公眾都表示對他的所作所為感到失望。

有公眾說，明義已經是帶罪之身，就不應該再穿上袈裟，甚至建議他還俗，與佛教劃清界線。

雖然公眾表示對明義感到失望，不過他們也表示，明義不該和仁慈劃上等號，明義犯錯是他個人的行為，仁慈還是需要很多公眾的支持。

此外，明義被判有罪，捐助仁慈醫院的私企商家紛紛表示惋惜，但會繼續支持仁慈和福海禪寺。

另一方面，居士林林長李木源則表示，明義要當“摩登和尚”，就該脫了袈裟，穿牛仔和T恤去做生意。

新加坡‧“繼續過日子等判刑”‧明義：謝謝關心

（新加坡）“謝謝大家的關心。Thank you very much！”

從第19庭室走出，即刻被記者包圍的明義法師笑容滿面，揮手說了這句話。

35天後，他和楊志恆才會知道判刑。

記者問他，等待判刑到來，他會做些甚麼？他說：“沒做甚麼，就繼續過日子。”

雖然判刑未知，但媒體都關切他是否要上訴。

葉寶龍高級律師代表明義說，現階段他無法發表甚麼看法，至於要不要上訴，他們得先研究判決理由及下來的判刑，才能決定。

楊志恆則通過代表律師吳立志說，他尊重法庭的裁決，會與律師一起研究判決理由，再決定下來該怎麼做。

明義和楊志恆是從今年4月2日起一起接受聯合審訊，前後21天，到今年8月3日結束。

週三（10月7日）休庭後，一些相信是跟隨明義的善信，都拒絕受訪。

美國‧過程直播‧火箭將撞月尋水

（美國‧華盛頓）美國太空總署（NASA）探測月球是否有水的太空船，已與撞擊火箭成功分離，預計將在大馬時間今日（週五，10月9日）晚上7時30分，撞擊月球表面的隕石坑，研究月球表面是否含有水份。

太空總署並會透過兩部精密的太空望遠鏡，向外界直播撞月過程，讓全球民眾有機會實時見證這歷史時刻。

此次人為撞月，屬太空總署為安排航太員舫2020年重返月球所做的準備工作其中一環，科學家也希望藉此瞭解月球的歷史。

火箭和月球隕坑觀測與傳感衛星（LCROSS）分離後，到了美東時間週五早上7時31分（大馬時間晚上7時31分），會以時速5600英里、即超過音速7倍的極速，撞向預先被選定的月球南極一個隕石坑。

坑洞寬100公里深4公里

隕石坑被撞時，會產生相當於1.5噸黃色炸藥的威力，揚起的77.2萬磅灰塵會升至10公里高。

火箭將在月球的隕石坑製造一個寬100公里，深度介於2.5至4公里的坑洞。

這時候，緊隨的LCROSS衛星會把握數分鐘時間拍攝影像和分析塵土，然後把數據傳回地球的控制中心。

太空總署數以百計的科學家和工程師將密切觀察這次任務，預計在數據傳回地球1小時內，便可知道月球是否隱藏了水分。

網友發起保衛月球行動

不過，這項探測任務卻引起風波，許多網友發起保衛月球行動，包括聯署給美國總統奧巴馬提出抗議。

有人甚至擔心，“炸掉”月球會否發生像電影《明日之後》般洪水淹沒陸地的浩劫。太空總署表示大家無需杞人憂天，因月球經常受到隕石撞擊，這次火箭撞月球根本是小事。

西班牙‧火車脫軌1死3傷

（西班牙）西班牙巴斯克地區一列近郊火車週四（10月8日）發生脫軌事故，造成1人死亡，3人受傷。

巴斯克鐵路公司發表公報說，一列火車在進站時脫離軌道，隨後撞向了一個混凝土柵欄。脫軌事故導致火車司機當場死亡，另有3名乘客受傷，其中一人傷勢嚴重。

巴斯克鐵路公司沒有透露發生脫軌事故列車的乘客人數。但據當地媒體報導，搭乘這輛列車的乘客人數並不多。目前事故原因仍在調查中。

新加坡‧最佳200所大學排行榜‧新大排名30

（新加坡）新加坡國立大學在2009年全球最佳200所大學排行榜中，表現與去年不相上下，排名第30。

南洋理大排名73

南洋理工大學則取得躍進，從去年的第77名上升4個位子，今年排名第73。

新大2006年在同個排行榜上排名第19，隔年大幅滑落至第33名，去年稍微回升到30名。南大則在2007年排名第69，2008年跌至第77名。

南大高等研究所所長潘國駒指出，歐洲和亞洲大學在排行榜上表現日益穩健的趨勢是正常現象。尤其是亞洲大學的崛起，更不令人意外。他指出，亞洲近年來取得顯著的經濟增長，各國的大專學府因此出現相應的素質調整。

東京大學冠亞洲

和去年一樣，日本東京大學依舊是亞洲大學的領頭羊，不過該學府去年的排名比今年出色。

東大今年在全球榜上滑落3個名次，排第22名。緊跟東大後頭的是排名第24的香港大學和第25的日本京都大學。國大和南大分別在亞洲大學中排名第4和第13。

新大校長陳祝全教授對於新加坡國立大學能夠再次與亞洲及全世界的優秀學府齊名，感到高興。

他說，新大能夠獲得肯定是因為我們傑出的教員隊伍對前沿研究和教育學生非常認真，做出許多貢獻。加上學校自身的環球視野、追求優異表現的執著和政府的支持，新大才得以為學生、校友、國家和社會創造價值。

新加坡‧罩杯B升D‧新加坡女胸部長大了

（新加坡）不少內衣製造商和專賣店老闆指出，新加坡女性在近兩年來有“增杯”的現象，大部份從B升級到C或D罩杯。

從事內衣行業已有6年的個性內衣專賣braShoppe創辦人林瑋指出，公司的A罩杯內衣並不好賣，反而C和D罩杯大受顧客的歡迎，這是她在近這1年半才發現的現象。

braShoppe的C和D罩杯銷售擁有高達60%，B罩杯有25%，A罩杯只有10%左右。

“公司幾年前帶進來的A罩杯賣得很慢，B罩杯在以前則是很受歡迎的。不過，如今大部份顧客都來找C或D罩杯，新加坡女性最近幾年長大了。”

林瑋認為，新加坡年輕一輩的女性因生活環境良好，因此發育也不錯，造成新加坡女性在近兩年來頻頻“增杯”。

I-Believe-in-Strong-Dollar Turns Relic as China Begs (Update2)

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- More than a decade after former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin made the “strong dollar” national policy, currency traders say the same words coming from the Obama administration have little meaning.

Timothy Geithner, the current Treasury secretary, has tolerated the greenback’s 12 percent slide from its peak this year in March as measured by the Federal Reserve’s trade- weighted Real Major Currencies Dollar Index. While he said as recently as Oct. 3 that “it is very important to the United States that we continue to have a strong dollar,” the last time the U.S. intervened in markets to support its currency was 1995.

The weaker dollar may boost America’s exports as the economy recovers from the deepest recession since the 1930s. The risk is that it may also drive away America’s largest creditors just as the Treasury relies more than ever on foreign investors to buy the bonds financing Barack Obama’s stimulus spending. The dollar’s share of global currency reserves fell in the second quarter to 62.8 percent, the lowest level in at least a decade, the International Monetary Fund in Washington said on Sept. 30.

“Since the dollar has been weak and weakening for years, Geithner was using a code phrase, a carry-over from the Bush administration,” said David Malpass, president of research firm Encima Global in New York. “It means that the U.S. approves of a constantly weakening dollar but doesn’t want a disruptive collapse,” said Malpass, the former chief economist at Bear Stearns Cos. and deputy assistant Treasury secretary from 1986 to 1989.

Poorer Americans

The dollar’s 15 percent decline against the euro and 11 percent depreciation versus the yen since early March are increasing concern among world leaders. At the same time, Americans are getting poorer.

Per capita net wealth tumbled to $172,749 in August from a peak of $212,599 in September 2007, government figures show. A United Nations Human Development Report released Oct. 5 showed America’s quality of life dropped to No. 13 in a 2007 global ranking from No. 5 in 2000.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said today in Venice that a strong dollar is “important,” repeating remarks made in Brussels on Sept. 28. Toyoo Gyohten, an adviser to Japan’s new finance minister, said the same day there is “no better alternative to the dollar.” Bank Rossii First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said Sept. 29 that Russia will keep buying Treasuries because there’s no realistic alternative.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six U.S. trading partners, fell to its lowest level in almost 14 months today. The greenback slid as much as 0.9 percent against the euro before trading at $1.4777 at 3:06 p.m. in New York.

‘Special Burdens’

“We recognize that the dollar’s important role in the system conveys special burdens and responsibilities on us, and we are going to do everything necessary to make sure we sustain confidence,” Geithner told reporters after attending a meeting of counterparts and central bankers from the Group of Seven in Istanbul on Oct. 3.

The comments came after policy makers from China to Russia called for an alternative to the world’s main currency in foreign-exchange reserves.

“Major reserve-currency issuing countries should take into account and balance the implications of their monetary policies for both their own economies and the world economy with a view to upholding stability of international financial markets,” China President Hu Jintao told the Group of 20 leaders in Pittsburgh on Sept. 25, according to an English translation of his prepared remarks.

Bentsen, Rubin, Summers

When Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980, his platform called for a “strong NATO,” “strong leadership,” “a strong peace” and a strong currency. “A sound monetary policy will be restored -- one designed to instill confidence in the American dollar abroad, as well as bring down the rate of inflation at home,” according to a 1980 brochure from Reagan’s campaign.

The preference for a strong dollar was brought back under Lloyd Bentsen, Bill Clinton’s Treasury secretary, in 1994, and the phrase was used regularly by his successors, Robert Rubin, a former Goldman, Sachs & Co. co-chairman, and Lawrence Summers, who is now the director of Obama’s National Economic Council.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which tracks the currency’s performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, gained an average of 4.93 percent a year between 1996 and 1999 when Clinton was in office.

Rubin Mantra

“By not varying the statement, an issue never arose about whether a comment involved a subtle change or not in the policy toward the dollar,” former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee in 2001, according to a transcript of the meeting. “It was boring, it was dull, it was repetitive, it was nonintellectual, and it worked like a charm.”

Rubin, a former senior counselor at New York-based Citigroup Inc., wasn’t immediately available to comment. A spokesman for Summers referred questions to the Treasury.

During the presidency of George W. Bush, the Dollar Index declined 20 percent.

The government has used the phrase for so long that “I don’t think it has much meaning left for the markets,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “Once you have this policy in place, I don’t think there’s any possible choice but for the Treasury to stick to what it’s been saying all this time.”

More Expensive

The decline means it’s becoming relatively more expensive to live in the U.S. The difference in per-capita income with Canada has shrunk 87 percent since October 2008.

A McDonald’s Corp. Big Mac sandwich cost $3.57 in the U.S. in 2009, unchanged from 2008, according to The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index. That compares with a 13 percent decline in the euro region to $4.62 from $5.34, and a 19 percent drop in the U.K. to $3.69.

One benefit to a depreciating dollar is that it helped shrink America’s trade deficit to $32 billion in July from the record $67.6 billion in August 2006, data compiled by the Commerce Department show.

Exports rose 5.7 percent to $127.6 billion in July from the low this year of $120.6 billion in April, the most recent data show, led by sales of capital goods including cars, civilian aircraft and computers, as well as stronger demand for industrial supplies and consumer goods.

Theory ‘Problem’

“The Washington theory is that dollar weakness will benefit the U.S. by inflating our way out of debt and causing more exports,” Encima’s Malpass said in a Sept. 25 note to clients. “The problem with this theory is that it assumes capital stays put while the dollar devalues.”

While the dollar dropped in global currency reserves, holdings of euros rose to a record, the IMF report shows. The U.S. currency’s portion declined to 62.8 percent from 65 percent in the first quarter. The euro’s share rose to a record 27.5 percent from 25.9 percent while the pound and yen gained.

The share of reserves in dollars declined even after the Fed and the government lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to shore up the economy and the financial system. The Fed has increased the size of its balance sheet to $2.144 trillion from $906 billion in September 2008.

Treasury officials rely on foreign investors to buy the record amount of debt needed to finance the more than $1 trillion budget deficit. The gap will grow to $1.6 trillion in fiscal 2010 before narrowing to $1.4 trillion the following year, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Treasury Sales

The U.S. sold $1.517 trillion of notes and bonds this year, compared with $585 billion at the same point in 2008. London- based Barclays Plc forecast total 2009 issuance at $2.1 trillion, and $2.5 trillion in 2010.

Dollar bears say net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors fell below the trade deficit by $46 billion in the first half of the year, one of the only three occasions since 1994 there was a shortfall, according to Treasury Department data.

China has slowed purchases, increasing its holdings 10 percent to $800.5 billion through July after a 52 percent rise in 2008 and 20 percent in 2007, according to the Treasury Department. Foreign ownership overall has risen 11.4 percent to $3.43 trillion, after gaining 31 percent in 2008.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in March that the Asian nation was “worried” about the safety of its investment in U.S. debt, as a weakening dollar eroded the value of its record $2.1 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves.

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index traded as low as 75.767 today, still above the lows in March 2008, when it fell to a record 70.698. The decline isn’t as steep as in the late 1980s, when it tumbled 48 percent to 85.33 in January 1988 from 164.72 in March 1985.

There’s no sign slower purchases of U.S. debt are leading to higher borrowing costs. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which helps determine everything from mortgage rates to auto loan payments, has averaged 3.17 percent this year, compared with 5.6 percent since 1989.

“The dollar will fall against the euro into the year-end as investors reallocate funds in search of higher yields,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate forecaster of 2007. “This is only capital export though, not capital flight. There is no evidence whatsoever that the weak dollar will lead to capital flight.”

No Inflation

There is no inflation in the U.S. that would deter foreign investors from Treasuries. Consumer prices fell 1.5 percent in August from a year earlier, and have dropped for six straight months, the Labor Department in Washington said Aug. 16.

“Inflation is still declining in the U.S., so it’s wrong to say that the dollar is losing its purchasing power,” Redeker said. “The U.S. is a domestically driven economy. It has huge output gaps, and these are going to keep inflation subdued for at least two years.”

G-7 finance chiefs stopped short of singling out the dollar for criticism in a statement after talks on Oct. 3, saying that “excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability.” That’s the same language they used in April, when the Dollar Index rose to 86.871.

“You can definitely read a worry among the non-U.S. participants in the G-7 meeting about the stance of U.S. authorities, and whether there’s any meaning to the strong- dollar policy,” said Carl Hammer, a senior global analyst at SEB AB in Stockholm. “Behind the scenes, there are definitely more deliberations and pressure for seeing the U.S. being really outspoken in defending its strong-dollar policy.”

By Matthew Brown and Oliver Biggadike

Banks fail to absorb commercial real estate loan losses

Remember the havoc in the financial markets when the residential bubble burst last year? Are we in for a rerun this year or next year?

You are probably thinking that such an event could not occur. Well think again. There is a report that says that we may be in for another crisis.

The report was initiated by Federal Reserve analyst, K.C. Conway. Conway is a senior real estate analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The Federal Reserve has acknowledged the report but said that it is not part of its formal opinion. What does the report say?

The report states that banks have not been taking their losses on commercial real estate loans. Conway's report predicted that commercial real estate losses would reach roughly 45% next year.

Most of the toxic assets are from interest-only loans. These loans have no benefit from amortization. Banks are also preserving capital, which is another reason for not taking their losses.

One thing is for sure. The bubble has burst and its only a matter of time before all of these losses come crashing down, much like the avalanche that we had last year.

Is there another bank bailout coming?

Fed Ratchets Up Warnings on Commercial Real Estate Debt

CRE Under Pressure Due to Sharp Erosion in Fundamentals, Grubb & Ellis Economist Bach Less Bearish on Sector Outlook

Two officials from the U.S. Federal Reserve issued strong signals this week that the central bank is very concerned over the banking industry's exposure to commercial real estate loans and considers it to be a major stumbling block to the road to economic recovery.

In a speech Monday assessing the state of the U.S. economic recovery, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and CEO William Dudley said he expects that "more pain lies ahead" for the commercial real estate sector and for banks with heavy exposure to CRE loans.

"The commercial real estate sector is under particular pressure because the fundamentals of the sector have deteriorated sharply and because the sector is highly dependent upon bank lending," Dudley said in the speech at the Fordham Corporate Law Center in New York.

Unemployment remains much too high and "it seems the recovery will be less robust than desired," with "significant excess slack" in the economy, Dudley said. Also, in something of a departure from recent Fed pronouncements, Dudley said the economy faces "meaningful downside risks to inflation over the next year or two."

Additionally, on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that a Fed official told banking industry regulators in a Sept. 29 presentation that "banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss" from commercial real estate loans, "just as they were in residential."

The presentation by K.C. Conroy, an Atlanta Fed official who is reportedly part of the central bank's "rapid response" program to spread information about looming economic problem areas to federal and state bank examiners, indicated that slumping property values and rising vacancy rates have exceeded those seen in the early 1990s recession and CRE losses would reach about 45% next year. Further, a WSJ analysis of regulatory filings found that banks with heavy exposure to CRE loans set aside just 38 cents in reserves during the second quarter for every $1 in bad loans -- a sharp decline from $1.58 in reserves for every $1 in bad loans from the beginning of 2007.

Grubb & Ellis Chief Economist Robert Bach told CoStar that, although he's far from optimistic about the market, he doesn't share the Fed's high level of pessimism, either.

"One reason I'm not as pessimistic is that I don't think that it's comparable to the residential crisis," Bach said. "Banks will have to declare more losses, but is it the type of crisis that will re-threaten the global financial architecture? I don't think so."

Bach notes that about $3.4 trillion in commercial mortgage loans are outstanding -- about one-third of the $10-$11 trillion in outstanding residential mortgages. A lot of the CRE loans losses will be concentrated in regional banks, and the FDIC has a time-tested procedure for shutting down, stabilizing and reopening such institutions with "a minimum of drama."

When the residential and subprime asset-backed securities market crumbled more than two years ago, the collapse threatened the major "too big to fail" institutions and caught everyone by surprise, sending the Treasury, the Fed and the world's other central banks scrambling for a plan to deal with the emergency, Bach said.

"Now, we know what to do. It's not going to be pleasant, it will be slogging through more losses" for two or three more years, he said.

In his remarks Monday, Dudley noted that financial markets are performing better and the economy is now recovering, if not at the rate regulators would like. He cited three forces restraining the pace of the recovery. Household net worth hasn't yet recovered from the housing price decline. Second, the fiscal stimulus that is currently providing support to economic activity is temporary rather than permanent and will abate over the next year.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, bank credit losses lag the business cycle and are still climbing, and the banking system has still not fully recovered. While banks’ access to the capital markets has sharply improved, institutions are still capital constrained and hesitant to expand their lending. Most significantly, significant classes of borrowers -- namely commercial real estate and small business -- are almost wholly dependent on the banking sector for funds that are not easily forthcoming, Dudley said.

Dudley said two main problems plague CRE fundamentals. First, capitalization rates had climbed sharply during the boom. At the peak, cap rates for prime properties were in the range of 5%. Today, the average cap rate appears to have risen to about 8%. Second, income generated by commercial property has generally been falling, Dudley noted. As the recession has pushed up the jobless rate, office demand has declined, and as the recession has led to a reduction in discretionary travel, hotel occupancy rates and room prices have declined. Retail sales have weakened, reducing demand for prime retail property.

Dudley said the decline in valuations has created a significant amount of rollover risk when loans and mortgages mature and need to be refinanced. The slump in valuations pushes up loan-to-value ratios, making lenders wary about extending new credit -- even in the case when these loans are performing on a cash-flow basis, the New York Fed president noted.

34 banks don't pay their quarterly TARP dividends

The U.S. taxpayers' investments in smaller banks are increasingly at risk.

In a sign that more banks are under great pressure from the recession, 34 financial institutions did not pay their quarterly dividends in August to the Treasury on funds obtained under the Troubled Asset Relief Fund (TARP). The number almost doubled from 19 in May when payments were last made, and also raised questions about Treasury's judgment in approving these banks as "healthy," a necessary step for them to get TARP funding.

"The banks are not paying their dividends because they are worried about preserving capital," says Eric Fitzwater, associate director of research at SNL Financial.

The Treasury Department says it cannot force an institution to pay dividends. "For some banks, it may be prudent to exercise their right not to pay dividends in a particular month, and we respect their right to do so," says Meg Reilly, a Treasury spokeswoman. "To draw any broader conclusions about the state of the banking sector from one month is highly premature and speculative."

However, a lot of smaller banks are already under stress. Weighed down by foreclosures and delinquencies, 98 banks have failed so far this year, vs. 25 for all of last year. Besides insurer American International Group and lender CIT Group, most of the other non-payers are smaller institutions that received $400 million or less in TARP funds.

Top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, Rep. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala., says: "We must ensure taxpayers are repaid."

Some say Treasury might have been too hasty in approving some banks for TARP funds.

"Perhaps the Treasury made assumptions that were a little bit too rosy," says Walter Todd, who invests in banks at Greenwood Capital. "My question is also whether the Treasury is staffed adequately to handle this tremendous undertaking."

Treasury has given $365 billion to 700 institutions from TARP. AIG, to which the government has pledged $180 billion, has accumulated $1.6 billion in unpaid dividends. And CIT, which received $2.3 billion from TARP, said in a regulatory filing that it is restructuring its debt and seeking approval from bondholders for a pre-packaged bankruptcy. If that happened, it would wipe out the entire government investment.

By Pallavi Gogoi and Paul Wiseman, USA TODAY

10,000 apply for 90 factory jobs

In the latest sign of weakness in Louisville-area employment, about 10,000 people applied over three days for 90 jobs building washing machines at General Electric for about $27,000 per year and hefty benefits.

The jobs dangle medical, eye care, prescription and dental benefit packages, as well as pension, disability, tuition assistance and more, said GE spokeswoman Kim Freeman. And despite the recession, no union workers have been laid off from Appliance Park since the company negotiated lower wages with workers in 2005.

“There are no jobs out there paying these kinds of wages that also offer these kind of benefits,” said Jerry Carney, president of IUE-CWA Local 761 at Appliance Park.

Just four years ago, the same jobs paid $19 per hour. But that was before Local 761 approved wage cuts for new workers aimed at preventing the closure of Appliance Park.

“People still value these jobs,” Freeman said.

With the Jefferson County unemployment rate at 10.6 percent in August and more than 38,000 unemployed people looking for work, the opportunity for moderate pay and health care was an attractive lure.

“In this recession, there are lot of people who are just about to run out of unemployment benefits,” said Richard Hurd, a labor relations professor at Cornell University. The national average of time unemployment benefits collected now stands at 26 weeks, Indiana University Southeast Professor of Business Uric Dufrene said.

That’s about a third of the maximum that can currently be collected.

Larissa Roos, 38, never worked in a factory, but was one of the thousands who bid on jobs assembling appliances.

Until she was laid off from Bank of America in February, Roos said she made $18 per hour fielding calls, often from irritated merchants, about credit card glitches. Roos took that job just out of high school. But severance payments end this month, and Roos said she is looking everywhere to try to replace the income.

“I need something so I can live day to day. The job market is horrible,” Roos said Thursday, adding the family relies on her husband’s job as a printer to pay the mortgage on their Fern Creek home as well as utility, fuel and other bills.

With 10,000 vying for GE line jobs, “I am sure my application won’t even get looked at,” she added.

The rush of applicants came as no surprise to Carney, who noted that another recent GE advertisement for 13 maintenance workers, who are paid a union skilled trades rate of $23 hourly, drew 700 job seekers.

Carney credited GE’s reputation for union job security and blue chip benefits as a powerful lure.

GE announced the new jobs last week and started accepting applications through a website Monday. Wednesday was the deadline. The jobs are being added to a new second shift early next month to assemble Energy Star washing machines in Building 1 at the historic Louisville complex.

Roughly 80 percent of applicants report factory experience, Freeman said. That is not surprising, given the recession so far has slashed 8,000 manufacturing jobs from the region’s economy, Dufrene said.

“There is an abundance of potential employees with manufacturing-related skills,” Dufrene said.

The rough profile of applicants, most of them former factory workers, suggests many lack sufficient education to apply for more than minimum wage jobs in the current job market.

Half lacked a high school diploma. Just 5 percent of the applicants said they had a bachelor’s degree or higher. and

GE employs roughly 2,100 hourly and 2,000 white collar workers at Appliance Park. Now, about 440 workers labor on the first shift making washing machines in Building 1.

Applicant Shane Hopkins, 48, hopes his factory experience provides an edge.

Until mid-August, Brooks said he maintained presses at a plastics factory. Now, Hopkins said he picks up occasional work as a flooring contractor for a cousin.

He still pays $300 per month to keep health care benefits for himself and his wife, an independent contractor for a Ford Motor Co. parts supplier at the Louisville Assembly Plant. Brooks anticipates she’ll be out of work next year, when the plant closes for retooling.

A year from now, “her job ain’t going to be there,” Brooks said. “I am thinking seriously about going to McDonalds, just for the benefits if nothing else.”

Banks 1, America 0

The plight of millions of unemployed US workers exposes the folly of trillion-dollar gifts for America's spendthrift banks

Last Friday's job report showed that most of the US is experiencing enormous economic pain, even if America's economy is now in a recovery. Overall unemployment rose to 9.8%, with the unemployment rate for men hitting a new post-depression high. The economy shed another 260,000 jobs in September and the previous figure for jobs lost in the recession was revised up by more than 800,000. The average workweek continues to shorten. With real wages falling, this ensures that most workers will be taking home shrinking wages.

For the vast majority of people in the country, who derive the vast majority of their income from working, the economy looks really awful. But the economy is not looking bad for everyone.

As we are constantly reminded, the financial crisis is behind us and the banks are back in their feet. In fact, they are more than just back on their feet. In many ways they are doing better than ever. The most recent data from the commerce department shows that the financial industry profits now account for more than 31.5% of all corporate profits. This is a higher share than at any point during the housing bubble years.

Of course, it is not that hard to make profits when you get to borrow money from the Fed at almost no interest and then lend it back to the government at 3.5% interest. Suppose the state of California was given the privilege of not only borrowing $1 trillion from the Fed at near zero interest but also using the money to buy Treasury bonds paying 3.5% interest. The $35bn in annual interest rate subsidies would take care of California's huge budget deficit pretty quickly.

But hey, California is just a big state. It's not a Wall Street bank. Congress is not going to tolerate special treatment for state governments.

The "save the banks" crew continues to peddle a seriously misleading story, mostly without challenge. They tell us that we had no choice. If we didn't give the banks trillions of dollars in their hour of desperate need, then the situation would be even worse.

There is no doubt that a complete collapse of the financial system would have complicated the recovery. However, handing the banks trillions, no questions asked, was not the only alternative.

Last year we faced a situation in which nearly every major bank faced bankruptcy: they could not pay their debts without the help of the government. Rather than just make below market loans, with few or no conditions, we could have made loans conditional on changing the way the banks did business. This would mean prohibiting them from dealing in complex derivative instruments, limiting leverage and seriously cutting executive compensation. (How does a $2m absolute cap – counting bonuses, stock options and other perks – sound?)

We could have done this because the US government held all the cards. If they didn't get money from us they would have been out of business. We could have told them to run around Wall Street naked, to walk on hot coals, to wear stupid looking hats, the choice was shutting down their banks and looking for new jobs.

Instead, we just handed them the cash, no questions asked. Now the banks are bigger and badder than ever and paying out big bonuses, just like before. As things stand, they will be an even bigger drain on the economy in the years ahead than they were in the years leading up to crash.

And, if anyone thinks that the banks have learned something about safe business practices, they have not been paying attention. What the banks have learned is that if you wreck your bank, and incidentally bring down the economy in the process, you can just send your lobbyists to Congress and the White House with empty bags and ask to have them filled up with money. The lesson is that Congress will say yes.

The politicians and the media can be counted on running to protect the banks in their hour of need. While tens of millions of people losing their jobs or their homes is just an unfortunate aspect of the modern economy, the collapse of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, or Bank of America is a tragedy that our elites just can't fathom.

So, be prepared to endure many more years of high unemployment, under-employment and declining real wages. Upwards of two million people are likely to lose their homes in 2010 and 2011. But the good news is that the economy is recovering and the banks are alright.

by Dean Baker

Dylan Ratigan On Corporate Communism: "$24 Trillion Of National Capital Is Being Sucked Into A Broken Banking System At Our Expense"

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Another home run from Ratigan. We will complete the post later, but the clip is too important to wait until we had the time to do a write-up. So just enjoy. Runs 5 minutes. First 30 seconds are health care, then it's banking and the bail outs.

• "The beneficiaries of an ongoing $24 trillion taxpayer-funded bailout...$24 trillion dollars."

• "That is national capital that is being sucked into a broken banking system at the expense of the rest of our country. They continue to use "Too Big To Fail" as blackmail to the taxpayer in order to get us to provide capital to them."

• "It is a system that takes resources from the citizenry and redistributes it to a tiny elite."

• "A handful of weak, un-competitive, outdated companies and industries are purchasing control of the American political system in order to stay in business using their cronyism.

• "It is coming at the direct expense of the rest of us in this nation. And it's a total betrayal of everything that represents America."

Read Dylan's Accompanying Editorial: Corporate Communism Is Killing America

Watch

END THE FED - ACTION 11/22/2009

Check this link ..... http://bit.ly/91CLw

NEVER Dial 911

Anthony Arambula acted quickly on the evening of September 17, 2008 after an intruder broke into his house. After the invader crashed through a window in the family’s Phoenix home, Arambula grabbed his personal firearm and held him at gunpoint.

Then he made the nearly fatal mistake of dialing 911.

Three Phoenix PD officers were already in the neighborhood when the call went out. Outside the house, Arambula’s wife Lesley informed Sgt. Sean Coutts that her husband had already taken the intruder into custody and was holding him at gunpoint.

Either out of reflexive contempt for a mundane or criminal incompetence, Sgt. Coutts neglected — or refused — to pass along this vital information to his fellow tax-devourers. Before Mrs. Arambula could relay those important facts to the other officers, Officer Brian Lilly shot Anthony six times in the back — twice after he had hit the floor.

“You just killed the homeowner,” gasped Anthony as he bled into the floor of his house. “The bad guy is in there.”

“We f***d up,” Lilly reported to his dispatcher. Fear not, he and his fellow officers acted quickly to address the most pressing issue — no, not the threat to Anthony’s life, or that posed by the intruder, but rather the risk to the career of the police officer who shot the innocent man.

Displaying natural leadership ability, Sgt. Coutts quickly devised a cover story: In the official version, Anthony had pointed his gun at Officer Lilly, yet somehow managed to take six rounds in the back.

“That’s all right,” Coutts consoled Lilly as Anthony was bleeding to death in front of his children. “I got you back … we clear?”

The entire incident was captured on the 911 recording. The audiotape didn’t record what happened next, according to the family’s lawsuit:

“Tony made what he believed was a dying request to the officers; he did not want his young family to see him shot and bloodied. Officers callously ignored his request and painfully dragged Tony by his injured leg, through the home and out to his backyard patio, where they left him bloodied and shot right in front of Lesley, Matthew and Zachary.”

The officers later dragged the wounded man onto gravel, then shoved him on top of the hood of a cruiser and “drove the squad car down the street with Tony lying on top, writhing in pain.”

In order to preserve their cover story, the police insisted on treating Anthony like the suspect in a drug bust, forbidding family and friends to visit him in the hospital.

Not surprisingly, Anthony — who managed to survive being “protected and served” by Phoenix’s “Finest” — still suffers from chronic pain from his injuries, and most likely will for the rest of his life.