Thinkorswim
Markets Are Still Loving The Economy’s
Increasing Problems
The economic reports turn ever uglier, and the
stock market loves it.
Something seems wrong with that picture.
In recent months, it has been the unexpected
widening of the U.S. trade gap, as exports decline and imports rise.
It has been unexpected plunges in retail sales, home sales, auto
sales, durable goods orders, and factory orders. It has been downward
revisions of previous reports for December.
This week’s reports have been more of the
same.
The Empire State (NY) Mfg Index plunged from
12.5 in January to 4.5 in February, considerably worse than the
consensus forecast of a weather-related decline to 9.0. The Fed’s
Phila Mfg Index plunged from a positive reading of +9.4 in January to
-6.3 in February. The consensus forecast was that it would decline
due to weather but remain positive at +7.3. Its new-orders component,
an indicator for future manufacturing, plunged from + 5.1 to -5.2.
From the important housing industry, this
week’s reports were that the Housing Market Index, which measures
the confidence of national homebuilders, plunged from 56 in January
to 46 in February, its lowest level in 9 months, more than 50% of
homebuilders now pessimistic about the future. New housing starts
plunged 16% in January and permits for future starts declined 5%.
While weather was again blamed, housing starts in the
weather-hammered northeast were actually up in January, and down
sharply in the rest of the country, including the balmy south.
Friday’s report was that ‘existing home’
sales nationally fell 5.1% in January, as sales continue the
downtrend that began last May when mortgage rates began to rise.
Sales fell 7.3% in Western states, the region less affected by winter
storms, a significantly larger decline than in the Northeast and
Midwest. Meanwhile, mortgage rates rose again last week, the 30-year
mortgage rate, at 4.33%, now 21% higher than a year ago.
Wall
Street firms and major banks continue to slash their forecasts for
the economy quite dramatically, not only for this quarter, but also
for the fourth quarter of last year.
MISS:
DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING FALLS TO 0.3 (3.0 estimated)
The Dallas Fed says its manufacturing survey
came in at 0.3.
Expectations were for a reading of 3.0 against
3.8 prior.
Dallas
Fed Misses; Dumps To 9-Month Low, Harsh Texas Weather Blamed
Read
more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dallas-fed-manufacturing-february-2014-2014-2#ixzz2uG1LDFzR
U.S.
Markit services gauge hits four-month low
World’s biggest companies pay out $1 trillion
in dividends
Dividend
pay-outs from companies in emerging markets have doubled between 2009
and 2011, but growth in the region has since “slowed to a crawl”
as the commodity cycle ended and currencies fell.
Stocks
set for a big fall, thanks to the Fed: Grant
Besides
artificially increases stocks, Grant said that Fed intervention has
been counterproductive to economic growth. “We have been living through a
very persuasive demonstration of futility of intervention to solve a
recession.”“It is now year six of this ‘monetary improv’ … [and] we’re making it up as we go along,” he added.Using a baseball metaphor,
Grant said: “We don’t know exactly day-to-day where the strike zone is …
how many strikes you get … nor what the distance is from home plate to
first.”“Sometimes they change the rules after the game is over,” he added.
Monetarism, Abenomics, QE, and Minimum Wage Proposals: One Bad Idea Leads to Another, and Another
Telegraph
writer Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is back at it. In arguably his worst
article ever, Pritchard complains France
is Looking Straight Down the Barrel of a Deflation Shock.
Read
more
at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/02/monetarism-abenomics-qe-minimum-wage.html#u8GTH8uJZqQydESS.99
Coffee prices have gone parabolic
Inequality worse now than on ‘Downton Abbey’
Welcome to “Downton Abbey America”
U.S.
economic performance goes from bad to worse in January
Looking for some good economic news today? Then
you’ve come to the wrong blog.
Data released Monday morning signaled that an
underperforming U.S. economy got worse in January, hit by
production-related weakness.
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