Could Russia be cashing out on its U.S. Treasury holdings? Concerns
over rising political tensions between the Russia and the West over the
Ukrainian crisis have helped boost gold prices to their highest level
in six months, as investors rush for cover into the traditional
safe-haven asset.
U.S. Treasury securities held in for foreign official and
international accounts slid $105 billion in the week ending March 12,
according to a Wall Street Journal report. The decline was the largest
retreat on record. As of December 31, both official and private Russian
holdings totaled $138.6 billion of Treasury debt, the report said.
Some market watchers wonder if Russia is moving funds out of U.S.
Treasury bond holdings into other accounts that it would be able to
access in case economic sanctions are imposed over the current
Ukrainian crisis. Moving a billion dollars is serious business, and
this situation remains on edge. All eyes will be focused on the Crimean
referendum on Sunday as citizens there vote on potential secession
from the Ukraine in order to join Russia.
What does this show about gold? Gold is still reacting in its
traditional safe-haven manner. Investor flows are returning to the gold
market. Bullish sentiment is climbing. The yellow metal has posted a
stunning and some would say surprising rally move since the start of
2014. There are many potential factors supporting the up move,
including a spate of weaker-than-expected data in the U.S. throughout
the first quarter, weakness in the U.S. dollar index and most recently
safe-haven buying from the Ukrainian crisis.
But, trend following traders often don't bother looking at the
fundamentals. And, for now as the old market adage goes: "the trend is
your friend." Gold is trading above its 200-day moving average, now at
$1,304 basis the Comex April gold futures contract, which is a bullish
signal to the trend following crowd.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has been trending lower in recent
weeks as the bull market in the dollar has yet to materialize.
While tensions are heating up on the international stage, gold is
reacting in its traditional and long-revered safe haven status. The
near and medium term trends are bullish for gold, April futures have
taken out a key resistance point at the October 2013 ($1,361) highs in
recent days
and the bulls are focusing on a retest of the August 2013 high at $1,430.20.
Last year's gold declines are in the rear view mirror and gold bulls are back in charge.
Kira Brecht is managing editor at TraderPlanet.
No comments:
Post a Comment