The greenback’s dominance in the developing world may be under threat as more emerging economies reduce their reliance on the global trade currency.

Is the dollar losing its clout among EMs?  (gold = monetary insurance)
The greenback’s dominance in the developing world may be under threat as more emerging economies begin to reduce their reliance on the global trade currency.
“Decreasing reliance on the dollar is an important trend that’s going to grow,” said Jim Rickards, chief global strategist at West Shore Funds. “As far as emerging markets, the rise of bilateral trading deals is significant for the dollar’s future as a trade currency.”

Around 80 percent of global trade finance is conducted in dollars, according to January data from SWIFT. But over the past few months, Russia and China have spearheaded a movement to use their domestic currencies for bilateral trade in an effort to distance themselves from dollar-denominated settlements. The countries recently signed a $24 billion three-year currency swaps agreement to double trading.

Meanwhile, Moscow and New Delhi may agree on a currency deal next year, Russian news agency TASS reported two weeks ago. Russia and Egypt are also considering a deal, according to Egyptian media reports last month.

“In some cases, high dollarization can facilitate trade. But there are drawbacks, such as limiting exchange rate flexibility to mitigate against external shocks, and constraining the central bank’s ability to be the lender of last resort. Under such circumstances, consideration could be given to actively promote de-dollarization,” he said.