The housing market appears to be hurting. Last week we learned that sales of new homes plunged
14.5% in March compared to February, while sales of existing homes fell
slightly month-to-month, too. Meanwhile, demand for home loans have hit a 14-year low in the first quarter, according to industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance.But today the National Association of Realtors reported
that pending home sales in March rose for the first time in nine
months. They were up 3.4% from February, but down 7.9% from a year ago.Heidi Moore, U.S. finance and economics editor at The Guardian, called the housing recovery a sham last June and
in the video above says the latest run of weak data suggests the same
concerns she raised when the recovery was humming along last summer.
Moore says the recent slowdown reveals the recovery was in fact
“dubious” and based on investor demand versus real homebuyers….
Case-Shiller Has Longest Home Price Decline Stretch Since 2012; 13 Of 20 Cities See Price Drops
What a
difference Seasonally adjusted and Unadjusted data makes: for the best
example look no further than the just released latest Case Shiller
index, where the Seasonally Adjusted 20 City Composite Index grew by a
less than expected 0.76% (Exp. 0.80%), down from the 0.80% last month,
and the Year over Year price also missed expectations of a 13.00%
increase, printing slightly less at 12.86%. However, while the
well-delayed February data was a modest miss across the board, more
importantly it represented that there has been price increases for 24
consecutive months. One gets a very different story if one looks at the
NSA data, where Y/Y prices increased the same, or 12.86%, however on a
sequential basis, prices have now declined for 4 months in a row – the
longest negative stretch in actual home prices since March 2012.What’s worse, even Case Shiller itself appears to have given up on housing as the driver of the wealth effect: “Five
years into the recovery from the recession, the economy will need to
look to gains in consumer spending and business investment more than
housing. Long overdue activity in residential construction would be
welcome, but is certainly not assured.”
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