On Feb. 16, a Bank of America analyst announced that the global economy is giving out clear warning signs that the dollar is entering into serious trouble, which adds more credence to John Williams recent assertion that 2014 will be the year of a dollar panic.
Global financial and commodity markets are warning that the US Dollar is in for a bout of trouble, warns BofAML’s Macneil Curry. Across asset classes, Curry points out that Gold was the first to make its low against the US Dollar, doing so back on Dec-15. The second market to turn against the US Dollar was US Treasuries, with Ten year note futures turning bullish back on Dec-26. Currently, the FX market – most specifically GBP - is breaking out and pressuring the US Dollar. Finally, the Japanese stock market continues to suffer, putting downward pressure on USDJPY and thus US Dollar weakness. – ZerohedgeOver the past month, the dollar has fallen over 120 basis points (bps), from 81.30 to hovering just above 80 as economic weakness continues to place the currency at the forefront of financial backlash. In that same time, gold has climbed more than $100 from $1220 on Jan. 9, to now over $1324 on Feb. 16, validating the increasing cracks showing up in the dollars ability to hold global value.
Additionally, the dollar is dealing with a deteriorating economy in Japan, as well as a backlash from the emerging markets as hedge funds pull out their investments due to the Fed tapering their cheap money programs.
Nearly every alternative economist has put 2014 as the primary year for a crucial change in both the dollar, and its reserve currency status. And as the recession that never ended begins to pick up steam after so many years of cheap money infusion, chances continue to increase for the dollar to either collapse, or become persona non grata, to the rest of the world each passing day.
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