Friday, February 28, 2014

Another Recession Looms? Personal Income Faces First Year-over-Year Drop Since Recession Ended, The Deflationary Pressures Are Continuing In Many Areas

Personal income faces first year-over-year drop since recession ended: As incomes collapse, spending via consumer credit begins to increase
There is little doubt that our economy runs on access to debt.  Not a tiny bit of debt.  But Himalayan mountains of debt.  The banking crisis was pitched to the public as one of liquidity but in reality, it was one of solvency.  The difference?  One is a temporary inability to repay debts while the other is a complete mathematical inabilityto support current debts based on income.  The Fed has done everything to increase access to debt to member banks to re-inflate their balance sheets.  Those that think inflation is non-existent need only look at housing values, college tuition, and healthcare costs and see how realistic that is based on their income growth.  This leads us to our current article in terms of personal income.  The latest reading shows that personal income had its first year-over-year drop since the recession ended.  This further underscores the massive disconnect between the stock market and regular American households.  A large part of boosting corporate profits involved slashing wages, benefits, and households making due with less.  This has increased the wealth and income inequality in our nation as the stock market reaches a new apex.  What is troubling is that now that banks are flooded with easy access to credit, they are starting to lend to cash strapped households in a fashion similar to our last credit bubble.
 
Personal incomes fall
I’m not sure if people are aware of how rare it is for personal income to fall on a year-over-year basis in a fiat system where inflation is championed. 
Inflation when it goes hand in hand with income growth is rarely felt by the public at large.  However, as we have discussed with the shrinking middle class, inflation with no subsequent wage growth translates to a declining standard of living.
Going back to data form the 1950s personal income never declined on a year-over-year timeframe.  That is until the Great Recession.  So this recent reading showing personal income declining year-over-year is notable:
personal income
Consumer Confidence Drops Most In 4 Months
This Will Stun The World & Bring Chaos To Global Markets
Greyerz:  “Eric, the deflationary pressures are continuing in many areas.  As an example, the eurozone consumer confidence had the biggest drop in 18 months.  And in Germany, the latest figures are showing wage deflation of 0.6%.  We also saw the same deflation in France of 0.6%….
Gov Report: Up To ONE MILLION Jobs Will Be Lost Due to Minimum Wage Hike
A few weeks ago the Congressional Budget Office, which is responsible for the accounting and reporting associated with federal legislation and regulations, estimated that the Affordable Care Act would raise national budget deficits by $1 trillion and lead to the destruction of some 2.5 million jobs.
But the new health insurance mandates and the pressure they will put on America’s businesses aren’t the only challenges facing an already dwindling labor force.
Earlier this month President Obama raised the minimum wage for federal workersthrough an Executive Orders that will take effect on January 1, 2015. He promised to push through a similar mandate for the private sector. However, just because minimum wage workers in America will see a roughly $3 increase in their hourly pay doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll be better off than today.
According to the CBO, the wage hike is going to do exactly the opposite of its intended purpose. Not only can we expect businesses to almost immediately raise prices on the goods and services they offer in order to offset the wage hikes, but it will end up costing the American economy even more jobs in the long run.
Once fully implemented in the second half of 2016, the $10.10 option would reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers, or 0.3 percent, CBO projects. As with any such estimates, however, the actual losses could be smaller or larger; in CBO’s assessment, there is about a two-thirds chance that the effect would be in the range between a very slight reduction in employment and a reduction in employment of 1.0 million workers.Congressional Budget Office: The Effect of a Minimum Wage Increase (PDF)
Global Economy Collapses Despite 4th “Warmest” January On Record
G-10 macro data is collapsing
 
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The Shanghai Index, Copper and Freeport McMoran look to be forming Descending triangle patterns. If you are unfamiliar with this pattern please read about them here  Bottom line to this pattern, a break of support suggests a decline, the size of the triangle!
The key to this patterns is the support line, which must hold, or sellers will step in. Commodities and the largest country in the world don’t have much to brag about over the past few years, other than poor performance and relative weakness! If support breaks, the new thing they could get to brag about ….”we sent a signal ahead of time that the macro picture was about to slow down.”
Support at this time is STILL IN PLACE…. support has NOT broken. I am attempting to make you aware of this pattern should it come true, so you could be thinking about portfolio construction ahead of time.

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