Global GDP Bomb Explodes: Japan Q4 GDP Disappoints, German, French GDP Contract By More Than Expected, Italian GDP Fell By 0.9%, Eurozone GDP Contracts 0.6% Numbers out of Greece and Portugal Are Also Awful, Futures Slump As Global Q4 GDPs Dump!!!
Despite so much pent up hope that Japan would post a 0.4% annualized growth (and a 0.1% rise Q/Q) in its Q4 GDP, finally exiting that pesky triple dip recession it has been stuck in for the past five years, moments ago the Cabinet Office reported that
contrary to optimistic expectations, in the 4th quarter the economy
again contracted for the third straight quarter, this time by 0.4%
annualized, and 0.1% on a Q/Q basis. This was driven by a whopping 14%
SAAR implosion in exports, which should not come as a surprise to those
who have been tracking the ongoing destruction of Japan’s trade balance
(and current account surplus). “Japan’s economy may show some weakness
for the time being. But it is likely to resume a moderate recovery
thereafter due to the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing, the effect of an
emergency economic package, as well as an expected moderate recovery in
the global economy,” Economics Minister Akira Amari said in a statement. True: there is hope. And there is the reality that
all the BOJ is doing is desperately trying to offset the loss of the
Chinese export market, which courtesy of the ever escalating foreign
relations snafu involving a few islands close to a massive gas field,
remains as shut as ever. And as long as China refuses to assist Japan in
its trade and current account deficit predicament, Amari can hope, and
hope, and hope.
MADRID (MarketWatch) — German and French economic growth contracted
by more than economists had expected in the fourth quarter, according to
official data released on Thursday. German gross domestic product fell
by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012 on a seasonally adjusted basis,
after growth of 0.2% in the prior quarter. Economists polled by FactSet
Research were expecting a a fall of 0.5%. In France, meanwhile, GDP fell
0.3% in the fourth quarter from a prior 0.1% climb in the third
quarter. Economists had been forecasting a drop of 0.2%.
It started overnight in Japan, where Q4 GDP posted a surprising and
disappointing 3rd quarter of declines, then quickly spread to France,
whose Q4 GDP declined -0.3% Q/Q missing expectations of a -0.2% drop,
down from a +0.1% increase, then Germany, whose GDP also missed
expectations of a -0.5% drop, declining from a +0.2% increase to a -0.6%
drop, then on to Italy (-0.9% vs Exp. -0.6%, last -0.2%), Portugal
(-1.8%, Exp. -1.0%, last -0.9%), Greece (down -6.0%, previously -6.7%),
Hungary (-0.9%, Exp. -0.3%), Austria (-0.2%, down from 0.1%), Cyprus
(-3.1%, last -2.0%), and so on.
Losses accelerated for U.S. stock index futures on
Thursday ahead of weekly jobless claims, with sentiment hurt by weak
growth data out of Europe and continued worries over a so-called
currency war.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (CBE:DJH3) fell 67
points, or 0.5%, to 13,891, while those for the Standard & Poor’s
500 index (GLC:SPH3) fell 5.7 points, or 0.4%, to 1,511.50.
Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index (CME:NDH3) fell 11.5 points, or 0.4%, to 2,758.75.
After a sharp New Year’s run-up, major U.S. stock indexes have
stalled at significant resistance levels and multiple fundamental and
technical indicators suggest that perhaps there is now nowhere for
equities to go but down.
Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve all read a steady stream
of overly-bullish headlines and listened to media commentators
celebrating Dow 14,000 and the possibility of a new, eternal bull
market. However, overhyped headlines and a series of fundamental and
technical factors point to the possibility that, as usual, such
enthusiasm tends to mark market tops rather than bottoms.
Starting with technical indicators, a chart of the S&P 500
dating back to 1998 demonstrates how the index has established a
triple-top over the period from 1998 through the present. This is an
enormous resistance level and one that will need to be convincingly
broken before one can declare eternal life for the bulls.
, finally exiting that pesky triple dip recession it has been stuck in for the past five years, moments ago the Cabinet Office reported that
contrary to optimistic expectations, in the 4th quarter the economy
again contracted for the third straight quarter, this time by 0.4%
annualized, and 0.1% on a Q/Q basis. This was driven by a whopping 14%
SAAR implosion in exports, which should not come as a surprise to those
who have been tracking the ongoing destruction of Japan’s trade balance
(and current account surplus). “Japan’s economy may show some weakness
for the time being. But it is likely to resume a moderate recovery
thereafter due to the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing, the effect of an
emergency economic package, as well as an expected moderate recovery in
the global economy
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