85% Top Income Tax Rate Needed to Close Deficit

The Tax Foundation has published Can Income Tax Hikes Close the Deficit?:

Using the Tax Foundation's Microsimulation Model to analyze the deficits projected by the President's Budget, we can project how much revenue a broad-based increase in federal income tax rates would generate. As usual, the President's Budget forecasts lower deficits than any other reputable source, but we have used those optimistic deficit estimates to show that even the rosiest deficit scenario is far from rosy.

Assuming deductions, exemptions and credits were kept the same as they are now, Congress would have to raise each personal income tax rate by a factor of almost two and a half to erase the 2010 deficit. Even in later years when the President's Budget predicts that the deficit will be "only" in the $700-to-$800 billion range, the rates necessary to close the deficit are untenable.

Table 1 shows the effect on statutory rates of such a hypothetical tax hike in 2010. Instead of taxing couples with rates that range from 10 percent to 35 percent, tax rates would have to start at 24.3 percent and range up to 84.9 percent.Table 2 applies the same method as Table 1 but for the years 2011 through 2020. Two rate increases for this 10-year period are already counted in the deficit projections given by the President's Budget. The top two tax rates will increase on January 1, 2011. The 33% rate will rise to 36%, and the 35% rate will rise to 39.6%. Yet the additional tax rate hikes necessary beyond those, and for all the lower brackets, are still remarkably steep if the budget deficit is to be eliminated, especially at the end of the decade when, even with optimistic deficit projections, deficits are expected to rise quickly and hit $1 trillion.

Table 2 applies the same method as Table 1 but for the years 2011 through 2020. Two rate increases for this 10-year period are already counted in the deficit projections given by the President's Budget. The top two tax rates will increase on January 1, 2011. The 33% rate will rise to 36%, and the 35% rate will rise to 39.6%. Yet the additional tax rate hikes necessary beyond those, and for all the lower brackets, are still remarkably steep if the budget deficit is to be eliminated, especially at the end of the decade when, even with optimistic deficit projections, deficits are expected to rise quickly and hit $1 trillion.