Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps warned
against the dangers of European Union membership as Iceland
became the latest nation to question the sense of affiliation
with a bloc mired in economic crisis.
Iceland’s new government said yesterday it will halt its
EU bid and drop the previous coalition’s goal of euro adoption.
Prime Minister-elect Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson, whose Progressives
won last month’s vote together with the Independence Party,
said he doesn’t want to join a bloc in crisis as his own economy
recovers. According to Phelps, the decision will spare Iceland
many of the risks plaguing the EU.
Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson,
seen here right, who will take over as prime minister this week, has
decided that a January decision to freeze EU membership talks will be
extended indefinitely, his political adviser Johannes Thor Skulason
said. Photographer: Halldor Kolbeins/AFP via Getty Images
“We’re still learning about the European experiment and to
what extent it’s going to succeed,” Phelps, 79, said in a
telephone interview. “The possibility is not foreclosed that
the experiment is going to prove unworkable, unsuccessful.”
The appeal the EU once held to nations seeking economic
stability and access to free trade is crumbling as the region
fails to emerge from its crisis. The U.K. is now openly
questioning its allegiance with the EU while other members like
Denmark have distanced themselves from the goal of euro adoption
to protect their economies. Iceland, which in 2008 became the
first nation to succumb to the global financial crisis, now
enjoys faster economic growth than the EU average.
“I can’t believe that anybody’s serious about joining the
EU right now,” Phelps said. “It’s like saying: ‘it’s a
beautiful house -- it happens to be on fire at the moment -- we
should buy it!’”
Nobel Prize
Phelps, who won the
Nobel Economics Prize in 2006 for his
theories on the interplay between inflation expectations and
unemployment, questions the future of the euro -- and the larger
EU -- after three years of debt crisis have left five nations
relying on bailouts.
Since emerging from its 2008 banking meltdown, Iceland’s
$14 billion economy has outpaced the euro zone’s and the
government has tapped international debt markets twice.
Unemployment in the Atlantic island is less than half the
average in the euro area and credit derivatives show a smaller
likelihood of default than in Italy or Spain, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
Iceland froze EU accession talks in January as parliament
awaited the outcome of parliamentary elections. Though the
winners of April 27 elections say Iceland will survive better on
its own, the central bank has argued a free floating krona will
be difficult to maintain once capital controls are lifted.
Main Hurdle
One of Iceland’s main economic hurdles now is to exit its
currency controls, according to Bjarni Benediktsson, the leader
of the Independence Party and the country’s new finance
minister. Euro membership would offer no protection from the
kind of capital flight currency restrictions are designed to
stem, Phelps said.
“It’s clear that there are huge blanks, huge gaps, in what
they’ve done so far” in the euro area, Phelps said in the May
16 interview. “We’re seeing now that each country is subject to
a flight of capital, currency flight; flight out of the
currency, flight out of bank deposits into other countries.”
Cyprus in March resorted to the first ever capital controls
inside the euro area in an effort to stem a run on its banks. In
Iceland, similar controls intended to be temporary following a
krona sell-off have now been in place for almost five years.
While any steps closer to the EU and the euro would be ill-advised, Iceland would be better off considering exchange rate
regimes that link it to other currencies, including the Canadian
dollar or the Norwegian krone, Phelps said.
“It’s certainly worth a look,” he said. “Of course, once
you ask that question it leads naturally to other possibilities.
What about Australia or Switzerland? Or, by the way, what about
the U.S. dollar? I’ve seen worse currencies in the world.”
Iceland should ask itself whether linking its krona to
Canada’s dollar would be any better than tracking the U.S.
dollar, he said. “Has America grown so unpopular that the
dollar is dismissed out of hand?”