Alarm Bells Go Off: 10-year Treasury Note Hits 2.9%, S&P 500 Is “Crashing” Now

Art Cashin says “alarm bells” will go off for stocks if the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hits 2.9 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100972141
10-year Treasury Note Hits 2.9%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^tnx
This bond sell off looks a lot like 2010, and that’s an ugly sign for stocks

The last six months have been a unique time for the bond market as benchmark rates have moved sharply higher on fears about when the Federal Reserve will wind down its easy money policies. But if you’re looking for a historical comparison, it was actually just three years ago.
Since 1989, the period that looks most like the one we’ve just been through was in 2010, when the Fed was in the midst of its second round of quantitative easing, an earlier iteration of the central bank’s bond-purchase program, and yields were rising on optimism about the economy. The correlation between the Treasury10_YEAR -0.04% yield curve then and now is about 96%, writes David Keeble, global head of interest-rate strategy at Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, in a Monday note.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/19/this-bond-sell-off-looks-a-lot-like-2010-and-thats-an-ugly-sign-for-stocks/?mod=MW_home_latest_news
This market shift could be signaling the end of the rally

Years ago, one of the first things that I learned when I ventured into technical analysis was sector and industry rotation.
Technical (which are not necessarily economic) bull phases start with leadership from interest-rate-sensitive groups, such as banks and homebuilders.
The leadership baton is then passed to consumer related sectors, capital goods, and so on.
The terminal phase is signaled by the leadership of deep cyclical resource sectors.
I believe that’s what we are witnessing now.
First, there is little question that the leadership of homebuilding stocks are rolling over…
http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2013/08/a-classic-late-cycle-rotation.html
Is the S&P 500 “crashing” now?
While some only now begin to debate “crash” or “no-crash,” the best idea is to follow the clues that the market leaves for us, writes Avi Gilburt.
…

With the high we have made so far, we really only completed 3 waves up in the S&P500. This classifies the top as a higher b-wave top, as it currently stands. After a b-wave, we expect a c-wave decline, which is an impulsive 5 wave pattern. While we are currently only trying to complete wave 1 of that 5 wave decline, this wave 1 will not be the “crash” which some are expecting.

Rather, this current drop will likely set up a countertrend rally which will take many out of the crash mode, especially if the market can rally up into the 1680ES region once again. It is from that top that we will see a 3rd wave down, which will feel like a crash to most market participants. But, most will no longer expect it due to the rally back towards 1680ES, which we will likely see at the end of the month.

But, such a move up, if it begins after we see 5 waves completed toward the 1620-1630ES region, will likely set up another 100-plus-point move down in a 3rd wave, which may only take a week or two to complete. This will be the “crash” scenario, which will likely begin when many may have been dissuaded from its possibility.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-sp-500-crashing-now-2013-08-19?link=MW_home_latest_news
STOCKS FALL, EMERGING MARKETS GET SLAMMED
Stocks fell around the world.

First, the scoreboard:

• Dow: 15,010.7, -70.7, -0.4%
• S&P 500: 1,646.0, -9.7, -0.5%
• NASDAQ: 3,589.0, -13.6, -0.3%

http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-august-19-2013-2013-8

With Tapering Imminent, Spot The Consumer Loans Trend

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-19/tapering-imminent-spot-consumer-loans-trend