U.S. stocks closed higher Friday as investors bet that a spate of
economic data, including the March jobs report, wouldn't speed up the
pace of interest-rate increases. The S&P 500 gained 13.05 points, or
0.6%, to 2,072.79 -- bolstered by health-care and consumer-staples
shares like Walgreens Boots Alliance
WBA, +2.92%
The index gained 1.8% on the
week, its strongest performance in a month. The Dow industrials gained
107.73 points, or 0.6%, to 17,792.82, led higher by Goldman Sachs Group
Inc.
GS, +1.81%
and Visa Inc.
V, +1.45%
The blue-chip gauge rose 1.6%,
its strongest gain in two weeks. The Nasdaq Composite gained 44.69
points, or 0.9%, to 4,914.54 for a weekly gain of 3% -- its best
performance in six weeks.
Saturday, April 2, 2016
April is the cruelest month? Not for Wall Street
April has been the strongest month for stocks during the last decade
Shutterstock
When poet T.S. Eliot wrote that April is the cruelest month, he certainly was not referring to the stock market. April, it turns out, has been very good for stocks.
“April is the strongest month, on average, over the past 10 years, up 2.7% on average,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial.
In the past decade, the market has risen nine times in April, with only 2012 an exception when it fell 0.8%, he said.
“April is third best for [the] S&P and fourth best for [the] Nasdaq (since 1971),” Hirsch said.
And while historical data have no bearing on future performance, Detrick pointed out that since 2002, a month that gains at least 6%—which happened in March—is typically followed by a strong month, with an average return of 3%.
And Detrick detected an even more interesting pattern going back to World War II—if stocks are weak in January and February but rebound in March, then the market tends to rise 8 out of 10 times with average gains of 3.4%.
Stocks fell in January and February but made up for the deficit in March to close out the first quarter 0.8% higher. The market also kicked off the new month on a positive note with the S&P 500 SPX, +0.63% adding 0.6% to close at 2,072.78 and the Dow climbing 0.6% to finish at 17,792.75 on the first day of trading in April.
Four things you better worry about this earnings season
S&P 500 companies are expected to post lower earnings for the fourth straight quarter
Getty Images
If you thought the fourth-quarter earnings season that just ended was miserable, brace yourself: the next one will be a real doozy.
S&P 500 companies are expected to post their fourth straight quarter of earnings declines and fifth straight quarter of sales declines, according to FactSet. The last time earnings fell for such a long stretch was the period between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2009, right after the financial crisis.
And stop blaming energy. This time, the pain is more evenly spread across sectors.
“While much of the softness is attributable to the energy sector, it is worth noting only three of the S&P’s 10 macro sectors are expected to show an increase in earnings,” said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Wells Fargo. “ Those are consumer discretionary, telecoms and health care.”
The season unofficially kicks off on April 11, when aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. AA, +0.52% reports after the bell.
https://www.graphiq.com/wlp/jHAh7sfMbw9
S&P 500 companies are expected to show an overall earnings decline of 8.5%, and a sales decline of 1.1% for the quarter, compared to the same quarter a year earlier, according to FactSet.
At least Wall Street may be prepared. Analysts kept busy revising estimates downward through the first quarter, which they did at the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2009.
“The Q1 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the estimates for all the companies in the index) dropped by 9.6% (to $26.32 from $29.13) during this period,” said FactSet senior research analyst John Butters. That compared with an average 4.4% in the last year, 4.0% in the last five years and 5.3% in the last 10 years.
Contrarian view: Profits don’t matter as much as you think to stock-market returns
All 10 of the S&P 500’s subsectors are showing lower growth rates today than they were at year-end, with the energy sector leading the revisions.
Here are four things to know about this earnings season:
There will be no growth
As MarketWatch’s Wallace Witkowski explained on Thursday, nearly a fifth of S&P 500 companies are expecting to miss estimates, the second-highest number since FactSet started to track that data in 2006. In fact, it is difficult to imagine that many companies achieved any growth at all, given the continued pressure on revenue and mixed macro environment.Add to that the fact that companies have spent billions of dollars on stock buybacks and dividend hikes in the last few years, using up funds that could otherwise have been spent on measures to stimulate growth. The buyback machine will likely be throttled back, according to HSBC, as rising interest rates have made it more expensive to borrow for shareholder returns, and negative interest rates around the world are subduing sentiment. HSBC made the case that the end of buybacks will be bad for stocks, as it removes a major buyer of U.S. equities.
See also: Share buyback machine remains in overdrive and experts warn it will end badly
The futures and options trader known as Northman Trader argues that the 15% decline in GAAP earnings of the past year has made the market expensive on a GAAP price/earnings basis. At the same time, 78% of companies issued earnings warnings in the first quarter, and that doesn’t include energy companies, which have more or less thrown in the towel on forecasting.
“GDP has come in much lower than expected as well, with the Atlanta Fed taking it down from 2.5% to 0.6% in just a few weeks,” he wrote. “So my principal take is unless these GAAP earnings start to improve this recent rally is not sustainable.”
Analysts at research firm Paviliion said for sales to rise would require sizable depreciation or a large, organic acceleration in demand leading to stronger sales. “We’re not sure that we see either in the near term,” they wrote in a note.
Low oil prices are still mostly a pain point
The theme of low oil prices will again feature prominently this earnings season, even after futures staged a strong rebound off their Feb. 11 low of $26.21 a barrel.Don’t miss: 2016’s first quarter was a curious case of Mr. Hyde & Dr. Jekyll
The low oil price has taken a huge toll on energy companies, especially the many shale plays that had emerged during the fracking revolution. Energy consulting firm Rystad Energy estimates that many of these companies need an oil price of $60 a barrel to remain profitable. The price has also been a problem for banks that lend to the sector. Bank loan loss provisions are expected to rise 8% to 10% in the medium term, according to a Macquarie note published Friday.
“The environment for banks continues to be challenging, and we are taking a more cautious view regarding near term earnings power by incorporating expectations for higher energy-related loan provisions coupled with a lower assumption for the near term interest rate outlook,” Macquarie analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, the beneficiaries of low oil prices are also showing cracks. The consumer, who is expected to benefit from lower gas prices, took a wobble in March, as measured by consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey fell to a reading of 91 from 91.7 in February, marking the fourth monthly fall in a row.
Airlines, which have lower fuel costs when oil is cheap, are grappling with another headwind, according to Deutsche Bank. analysts.
“We have observed a slowdown in U.S. corporate profits which is a concern given that they are a leading indicator of economic activity, and therefore, could lead to reduced demand for corporate travel,” they wrote in a note Friday, downgraded American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, -3.63% Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL, -3.43% United Continental Holdings Inc. UAL, -5.25% and Hawaiian Holdings HA, -2.48% to hold from buy.
The greenback is a headwind
The dollar, a major whipping boy in the last several quarters, will no doubt feature strongly in earnings this season, even after it logged its worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2010. The ICE U.S. dollar index DXY, -0.02% fell 4.2% in the quarter, while the euro gained 4.8%. For companies, the weakening of the U.S. currency is unlikely to have significantly helped improve first-quarter earnings, although it will be interesting to see if there are fewer disclosures that attempt to strip out its effect. Dollar strength has been described as a major headwind by companies across the board in the past year.The China syndrome
China will no doubt show up in many earnings reports, as companies update investors on how their business is performing there. China has transformed from being mostly a source of cheap goods and semifinished products for U.S. companies to a promising market with a burgeoning middle class that is now embracing consumer goods.China’s slowdown is one of the reasons for the global commodities rout of the last year, as it is a major consumer of oil and metals. It is widely held to be the economy Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen was referring to in comments this week to The Economic Club of New York that the Fed was taking a more cautious approach to rate hikes because of worry about global growth crimping U.S. growth.
A slew of recent data that fell short of expectations has some economics forecasting that first-quarter growth will fall to the bottom of the government’s target of 6.5% to 7.0% growth for 2016.
Don’t miss: Opinion: China’s identity crisis: Is it supply or demand?
More from MarketWatch
William Black: Fraud is the basis of ALL profit in the banking industry at this point.
William Black, author of “The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One” talks with Greg Hunter.
He is a former investigator with the US Justice Department. He quips that when he worked for Justice, they weren’t sophisticated enough to conclude that the best way to manage an unstable banking system was to leave the criminals in charge. In the interview, he addresses the “systemic risk” of the banking sector in the US, and how the bulk of the at-risk institutions are here in the US. He also calls out the elephant in the room, that fraud is the basis of ALL profit in the banking industry at this point.
He is a former investigator with the US Justice Department. He quips that when he worked for Justice, they weren’t sophisticated enough to conclude that the best way to manage an unstable banking system was to leave the criminals in charge. In the interview, he addresses the “systemic risk” of the banking sector in the US, and how the bulk of the at-risk institutions are here in the US. He also calls out the elephant in the room, that fraud is the basis of ALL profit in the banking industry at this point.
The evidence is now clear that negative interest rates don’t stimulate spending; they are only good for devaluation in the ongoing currency wars. World trade is shrinking; a rare phenomenon usually associated with recession or depression.
Well it seems that we have entered the negative
era! Negative rates, negative growth, negative jobs. I’m sure it will
all work out.
19 trillion debt, 47 million on SNAP, 95 million out of work force.
Go USA you’re #1 again!
19 trillion debt, 47 million on SNAP, 95 million out of work force.
Go USA you’re #1 again!
The Limits of Monetary Policy Have Been Reached
The real world of the economy is bleak.Global growth is slowing both because of weakness in developed economies like Europe and Japan, and weakness in some of the emerging markets champions such as China, Brazil and Russia. The limits of monetary policy have been reached.
The evidence is now clear that negative interest rates don’t stimulate spending; they are only good for devaluation in the ongoing currency wars. World trade is shrinking; a rare phenomenon usually associated with recession or depression.
The US is held up as a beacon of strength in this barren real world landscape, but that’s also deceiving. US manufacturing is already in recession. Dismissing manufacturing as a small part of GDP in a service-driven economy is facile.
When gross manufacturing supply chain sales are counted – rather than net value-added used for GDP purposes — manufacturing looms much larger. It is also the source of higher-paying jobs compared to the service sector. These high-paying manufacturing jobs (now lost) are the key to real wage gains and aggregate demand.
Strength in auto sales is also deceiving because sales are based on shipments to dealers, not final sales. In fact, inventories of unsold autos are sky high and will need to be worked off or else assembly lines will slow down. Distress in the energy sector is another well-vetted vector.
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/118681/2016/03/30/
Go on, guess: The global rate-cut tally since 2008
No cheating. How many interest rate cuts do you think there have been around the world since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008?
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/03/29/go-on-guess-the-global-rate-cut-tally-since-2008/
Attention President Obama: One Third Of U.S. Households Can No Longer Afford Food, Rent And Transportation
While the Fed has long been focusing on the revenue part of the
household income statement (which unfortunately has not been rising
nearly fast enough to stimulate benign inflation in the form of nominal
wages rising at the Fed’s preferred clip of 3.5% or higher), one largely
ignored aspect of said balance sheet has been the expense side: after
all, for any money to be left over and saved, expenses have to
surpass income. However, according to a striking new Pew study while
household spending has returned to pre-recession levels (the average
household spent $36,800 in 2014) incomes have not.Specifically, while the median income had fallen by 13% from 2004 levels over the next decade, expenditures had increased by nearly 14%. But nobody was more impacted than the one-third of households which the study defines as “low-income.” Pew finds that while all households had less slack in their budgets in 2014 than in 2004, lower-income households went into the red by over $2,300.
In other words, approximately one third of American households were no longer able to cover the core necessities – food, housing and transportation – with average income.
According to Pew, households spent more in 2014 than they did in 1996, after adjusting for inflation; this holds whether the figures are based on averages (means) or medians. The typical household saw its expenditures grow by more than 25 percent, from $29,400 in 1996 to $36,800 in 2014. Mean expenditures grew 27 percent since 1996, rising from $43,200 to $54,800.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-30/attention-president-obama-one-third-us-households-can-no-longer-afford-food-rent-and
The problems facing #ECB's Draghi and his stimulus measures http://bloom.bg/1pMtSkv via @annaedwardsnews
Imploding Pensions Take The Rest Of US Down With Them
by
In that ruling nearly a year ago, the state Supreme Court overturned the vast majority of the PERS reform cost-saving provisions enacted by the 2013 Legislature.
The current unfunded PERS liability now exceeds $21 billion, up from $18 billion last year, he noted.
PERS Communications Director David Crossley said while the PERS fund earned just over 2 percent last year, it did not achieve the “assumed savings rate” of 7.75 percent, so the liability increased by about $3 billion.
He noted that PERS had positive earnings, but lost value because it pays out about $3.5 billion in benefits a year.
PERS rates for school districts and local governments will rise in July 2017, Knopp said, forcing school districts to lay off teachers, reduce school days, increase class sizes, and cut programs like art and PE. Local governments will also have to make cuts to public safety and other critical services.
This combination of worse-than-expected investment returns and legal barriers to cost savings is playing out across the country. See Fitch downgrades Chicago after “worst possible outcome” in state supreme court pension reform bid.
What follows — “…forcing school districts to lay off teachers, reduce school days, increase class sizes, and cut programs like art and PE. Local governments will also have to make cuts to public safety and other critical services” — is also playing out in most states and cities.
And this, remember, is at the tail end of an epic bull market in financial assets. If pension plans aren’t fully funded now, they’ll fall into an abyss in the coming correction.
The result: everyone gets poorer. Or more accurately, everyone discovers that they were never as rich as they thought they were, and that the down escalator they’re on has a long way to go.
At the risk of belaboring the point, imploding pensions, like most other modern problems, can be traced back to easy money. Put a monetary printing press in the hands of government and the resulting corruption flows from Washington outward to every state capital and mayor’s office. With interest rates artificially low and inflation artificially high, generating 8% returns as far as the eye can see looks not just possible, but easy. So promising benefits based on high rates of return seems reasonable to elected officials anxious to buy labor peace. And once the Ponzi scheme is in place, there’s no way to turn it off without creating chaos.
The only solution (again at the risk of repetition) is to take the easy money program to its logical extreme and devalue the dollar by an amount large enough to make nominal pension benefits affordable. That’s functionally the same as honestly cutting benefits and will impoverish everyone who doesn’t own lots of real assets, but it will be easier to hide.
It’s the same story pretty much
everywhere: Cities and states promised ridiculously generous (by today’s
standards) pensions to teachers, cops and firefighters, failed to
sufficiently fund the plans and invested the money they did have very
badly. And now the weight of the resulting unfunded obligations are
crushing not just plan recipients but entire communities. Here’s a
representative case:
Oregon PERS unfunded liability swells to $21 billion
(KTVZ) – This week, Oregon’s Public Employee Retirement System Board received an earnings report on the status of the PERS fund investment. The report said Oregon’s PERS fund fell by 4 percent in 2015, a loss of nearly $3 billion — and a Central Oregon lawmaker said that means major reforms are more urgent than ever.“The blow to PERS from the Moro court case left Oregon with an additional $5 billion in unfunded liability,” Sen. Tim Knopp, R-Bend, said Tuesday. “Now PERS is an additional $8 billion short of its target.”In that ruling nearly a year ago, the state Supreme Court overturned the vast majority of the PERS reform cost-saving provisions enacted by the 2013 Legislature.
The current unfunded PERS liability now exceeds $21 billion, up from $18 billion last year, he noted.
PERS Communications Director David Crossley said while the PERS fund earned just over 2 percent last year, it did not achieve the “assumed savings rate” of 7.75 percent, so the liability increased by about $3 billion.
He noted that PERS had positive earnings, but lost value because it pays out about $3.5 billion in benefits a year.
PERS rates for school districts and local governments will rise in July 2017, Knopp said, forcing school districts to lay off teachers, reduce school days, increase class sizes, and cut programs like art and PE. Local governments will also have to make cuts to public safety and other critical services.
This combination of worse-than-expected investment returns and legal barriers to cost savings is playing out across the country. See Fitch downgrades Chicago after “worst possible outcome” in state supreme court pension reform bid.
What follows — “…forcing school districts to lay off teachers, reduce school days, increase class sizes, and cut programs like art and PE. Local governments will also have to make cuts to public safety and other critical services” — is also playing out in most states and cities.
And this, remember, is at the tail end of an epic bull market in financial assets. If pension plans aren’t fully funded now, they’ll fall into an abyss in the coming correction.
The result: everyone gets poorer. Or more accurately, everyone discovers that they were never as rich as they thought they were, and that the down escalator they’re on has a long way to go.
At the risk of belaboring the point, imploding pensions, like most other modern problems, can be traced back to easy money. Put a monetary printing press in the hands of government and the resulting corruption flows from Washington outward to every state capital and mayor’s office. With interest rates artificially low and inflation artificially high, generating 8% returns as far as the eye can see looks not just possible, but easy. So promising benefits based on high rates of return seems reasonable to elected officials anxious to buy labor peace. And once the Ponzi scheme is in place, there’s no way to turn it off without creating chaos.
The only solution (again at the risk of repetition) is to take the easy money program to its logical extreme and devalue the dollar by an amount large enough to make nominal pension benefits affordable. That’s functionally the same as honestly cutting benefits and will impoverish everyone who doesn’t own lots of real assets, but it will be easier to hide.
Deutsche Bank shares start lower to the new quarter w/ default probability again higher as market mood turns sour.
Deutsche Bank shares start lower to the new quarter w/ default probability again higher as market mood turns sour.
Secret ECB Doc Warns Taxpayers Being Forced To Pay For More Bailouts
(SPUTNIK) A recently released agreement between the ECB and national central banks of the Eurozone raises the prospect of EU taxpayers being forced to pay for more bailouts, Die Welt reported.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) publication
of its previously confidential Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA)
with the 19 central banks of the Eurozone raises more questions than it
answers, Die Welt reported on Thursday.
“Under public pressure the ECB
released its billion euro agreement at the beginning of February. But
what was meant to silence the debate around supposedly prohibited state
funding has triggered more debate,” Die Welt reported.The ANFA sets limits for the amount of financial assets that national central banks of the Eurozone can hold in order to carry out national tasks not directly related to monetary policy, which is controlled at European level by the ECB.
“At the same time, the ANFA allows exceptions
to this rule, so-called exceptional cases, in which national banks can
create money over the specified limit and buy securities,” Die Welt
wrote.
“The ANFA agreement, and particularly the
Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) loans can be used to provide
loopholes for central banks to rescue banks, for example when some
insolvent banks are kept above water by poorly secured emergency loans,”
Philipp Konig from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW)
told the paper.
”These loans are really only supposed to be
short-term help for illiquid banks. However, we have seen in both Greece
and Ireland that national central banks have considerable leeway.”
The expensive risks of seret ECB documents,’ Die Welt reported.Financial expert Daniel Hoffman said that there are currently 346 billion euros ($394 billion) of securities purchases on the balance sheets of national central banks, hiding under nebulous terms like “other securities” or “other assets,” beyond the limit specified by the ANFA.
“After the rescue of bankrupt states and the multibillion euro purchase of government bonds, it will be the next taboo in the Euro system,” Hoffman warned.
The Lies of Neoliberal Economics (or How America Became a Nation of Sharecroppers)
CHRIS HEDGES: So, we spoke in previously about the parasitic quality of the banks, hedge funds and the speculative class that has in essence cannibalized the country – including, interestingly, industry itself, and forced down the throats of the American public an unsustainable debt peonage, whether that’s through student loans, predatory credit card interest rates where it’s that bait and switch – where you get zero percent interest and next thing you know, you’re paying as high as 26 percent, 23 percent …
MICHAEL HUDSON: If you miss a payment.
HEDGES: If you miss a payment. Mortgages, with many houses now underwater because of 2008. I want to look first at the self-identified liberal class within the Democratic Party, including Barack Obama. It often uses the language of economic justice, and will even chastise Wall Street rhetorically, but has been as committed to this neoliberal project as the Republicans.
HUDSON: The key of demagogic politics is to realize that the people who are really backing you are your campaign funders. Your job as a politician is to say, “I can deliver this constituency to your backers.” Obama was a genius at doing what Donald Trump is trying to do today: taking a constituency. That’s his column A: a focus group listing everything the constituency wants. They want debt relief. They want better jobs. They want higher minimum wage.
HEDGES: And not trade agreements like NAFTA and …
HUDSON: Right. And then column B, that he didn’t tell them, was what the campaign backers on Wall Street want. Obama was picked essentially by Robert Rubin, who then became head of Citibank after having come out of the Goldman Sachs. Obama was picked by Rubin of Wall Street to promise was he was going to really do. It was what any president today is going to do: A politician’s job is to deliver whoever voted for you to your backers, who are on Wall Street. Whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, but especially if you are a Democrat – that’s really the Wall Street wing of the American political system. The Republicans are for the corporate monopoly, oil and gas wing of it.
As soon as Obama got in, Hank Paulson – the Republican Treasury Secretary – was talking to Barney Frank and said, you know, we were supposed to, under TARP, have some of the money to go for debt writedown.
HEDGES: Explain TARP.
HUDSON: TARP was Troubled Asset Relief Program. It was supposed to treat banks as if they were troubled. If you’re a criminal and you’re stealing from people, that was called “troubled.” There’s a lawsuit recently in in the news about a rich boy drove his car and killed four people. His defense was, “It’s not my fault, I have affluenza. I’m so rich that I don’t have a social sense. So of course I drove away. But I’m innocent, because I’m rich. What do you expect?”
Essentially that’s the Goldman Sachs view of the economy. You cause collateral damage all over, but that’s what Wall Street does. You can’t punish them for it. They’re just doing what a predatory financial institution does. So Obama said “No, , I’m not going to do that,” [meaning write down the mortgage debts as he had promised voters in Column A]. He came in and appointed Wall Street’s main lobbyist, Tim Geithner, as Treasury Secretary.
93,482,000 Americans Out of Labor Force in March
(Caroline May) The number of Americans not participating in the workforce in March dipped again compared to the previous month but was still higher than it was a year ago, according to Labor Department data released Friday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that 93,482,000 Americans were neither employed nor had made an effort to find employment in March.
March’s non-participation level continues a multi-month trend of decline after the number of people out of the workforce hit a record high of 94,610,000 in October — declining another 206,000 compared to February.
While the number of people out of the workforce declined in March, 292,000 more people were out of the work force compared to March 2015.
The labor force participation rate over the month of March remained relatively unchanged at 63 percent (compared to 62.9 percent in February), higher than it was a year ago.
Additionally, the civilian labor force grew to 158,286,000, an increase of 396,000 over the month of February, 151,320,000 of whom were employed. Another 7,966,000 were unemployed.
Overall the economy added 215,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent, practically unchanged from February’s unemployment rate of 4.9 percent.
FIRST QUARTER SALES OF AMERICAN SILVER EAGLES SET RECORD
by Smaulgld
March American Silver Eagle sales were subject to rationing by the U.S. Mint to its Authorized Purchasers.
(4,106,500 vs. 4,782,000) but up 16.7% from March 2015 (4,106,500 vs. 3,519,000)
March sales of American Silver Eagles were the second largest ever in the coin’s thirty year history.
First Quarter Sales Of Silver Eagles Set Record
Retail and Wholesale Premiums on American Silver Eagle Coins
Premiums on American Silver Eagle coins have stabilized since the Great Silver Shortage of 2015.
Compare American Silver Eagles for sale at:
BGASC.com
Golden Eagle Coins
JM Bullion
Money Metals Exchange
Sales of American Silver Eagles at the end of March 2016 were 14,842,500. At the end of March 2015 the U.S. Mint had sold 12,071,000 American Silver Eagles. Sales of American Silver Eagles through March 2016 are 23% higher than through the comparable period of 2015.
If American Silver Eagle sales continue at a pace 23% higher than last year’s sales, the U.S. Mint will sell approximately an additional 13,000,000 over 2015’s total of 47,000,000 or about 57,000,000.
Another American Silver Eagle Record Brewing?
Sales of American Silver Eagles through March 2016 of 14,842,500 are
greater than the entire annual totals of every year of American Silver
Eagle production from 1987-2007.
The United State Mint sold a total of 109,000 American Gold Eagle coins in March 2016including fractional 1/10, 1/4 and 1/2 ounce and one ounce coins, down 7.6% from March 2015 (when 118,000 American Gold Eagles were sold). Total sales from all American Gold Eagle coins totaled 38,000 ounces of gold down 18.3% from 46,500 ounces of gold sold in March 2015.
Total February 2016 Gold Bullion Sales at the U.S. Mint: 45,000 ounces, including 80,000 fractional ounce gold Eagles (totaling 9,000 ounces) and 7,000 24K one ounce Buffalo gold coins*.
You can compare pricing and shipping charges on American Gold Eagles coins of all sizes at these web sites:
BGASC.com
Golden Eagle Coins
JM Bullion
Money Metals Exchange
The American Gold Buffalo coin has increased in popularity in recent years.
You can compare American Gold Buffalo coins for sale at these websites:
BGASC.com
Golden Eagle Coins
JM Bullion
Money Metals Exchange
March 2015 – March 2016 Gold Silver Ratio
Click here for the live gold silver ratio and for historic gold silver ratio charts.
The silver to gold sales ratio is measured by the sales of physical gold bullion vs. sales of physical silver bullion at the U.S. Mint. We track the sales of one ounce American Gold Eagles vs. one ounce American Silver Eagles.
The U.S. Mint is scheduled to release five America the Beautiful silver coins in 2016, including Shawnee National Forest, Cumberland Gap National Historical Park, Harpers Ferry National Historical Park, Theodore Roosevelt National Park and Fort Sumter National Monument.
In 2015 the U.S. Mint sold 212,500 America the Beautiful silver five ounce coins for a total of 1.060,000 ounces of silver.
In 2014, the U.S. Mint sold 135,300 American the Beautiful silver five ounce coins for a total of 676,500 ounces sold.
In 2013, the U.S. Mint sold 160,000 silver America the Beautiful five ounce coins for a total of 800,000 ounces sold.
On March 30, 2016 at 9:15 PM EST:
Silver was $15.45 per ounce
Silver Price Average in March $15.42 vs. $16.22 in March 2015 (4.9% lower)
Silver Price Average in February $15.05 vs. $16.84 an ounce in February 2015 (10.6% lower)
Silver Price Average in January: $14.02 vs. $17.10 an ounce in January 2015 (18% lower)
Silver Price Average in 2013: $23.79
Silver Price Average in 2014: $20.05
Silver Price Average in 2015: $17.10
Gold was $1231.30 per ounce
Gold Price Average in March $1246.34 vs $1178.63 an ounce in March 2015 (5.7% higher)
Gold Price Average in February $1198.16 vs. $1227.19 an ounce in February 2015 (2.4% lower)
Gold Price Average in January: $1097.37 vs. $1251.88 an ounce in January 2015 (12.3% lower)
Gold Price Average in 2013: $1412.05
Gold Price Average in 2014: $1290.70
Gold Price Average in 2015: $1251.85
Sources: Kitco and United States Mint
*In March 2016, the U.S. Mint also sold: 1,000 one half ounce gold American Eagle coins, 4,000 one quarter ounce gold American Eagle coins and 75,000 one tenth ounce gold American Eagle coins (a total of 9,000 ounces in fractional gold Eagles coins) Including the 29,000 one ounce gold American Eagle coins, the Mint sold 38,000 ounces of gold American Eagle coins and 7,000 one ounce Gold Buffalo coins for a total of 45,000 ounces of gold sold.
Silver and Gold Sales at the U.S. Mint in March 2016.
Sales of American Silver Eagle Coins set a first quarter record of 14,842,500.
March 2016 sales of 4,106,500 were the second highest amount ever sold in March.
Sales of American Silver Eagles in March 2016 were 16.8 % greater than March 2015 sales.March American Silver Eagle sales were subject to rationing by the U.S. Mint to its Authorized Purchasers.
Sales of one ounce American Gold Eagle Coins in March were 29,000.
Sales of one ounce American Gold Eagles in March 2016 were 17.1% lower than March 2015 sales.Sales of American Gold Buffalo coins were 7,000
Silver To Gold Sales Ratio March 2016
The U.S. Mint sold 141.59 times more American Silver Eagles than one ounce American Gold Eagles in March.March 2016 American Silver Eagle Sales at the U.S. Mint
The U.S. Mint Sold a 4,106,500 American Silver Eagles in March 2016
March 2016 American Silver Eagle sales were up down 14.1% from February 2016.(4,106,500 vs. 4,782,000) but up 16.7% from March 2015 (4,106,500 vs. 3,519,000)
March sales of American Silver Eagles were the second largest ever in the coin’s thirty year history.
American Silver Eagle sales in March 2016 were the second most ever in March.
First quarter 2016 sales of American Silver Eagles were 23% higher than first quarter 2015 sales.
Premiums on American Silver Eagle coins have stabilized since the Great Silver Shortage of 2015.
Retail premiums on American Silver Eagle coins have held steady under thirty percent since mid October 2015.
BGASC.com
Golden Eagle Coins
JM Bullion
Money Metals Exchange
American Silver Eagle Sales On Track to Set Record a For a Fourth Year In a Row in 2016
The U.S. Mint sold 47,000,00 American Silver Eagles coins in 2015. This topped the record of 44,006,000 silver eagles sold in 2014, which in turn topped the record 42,675,000 sold in 2013.Sales of American Silver Eagles at the end of March 2016 were 14,842,500. At the end of March 2015 the U.S. Mint had sold 12,071,000 American Silver Eagles. Sales of American Silver Eagles through March 2016 are 23% higher than through the comparable period of 2015.
If American Silver Eagle sales continue at a pace 23% higher than last year’s sales, the U.S. Mint will sell approximately an additional 13,000,000 over 2015’s total of 47,000,000 or about 57,000,000.
Another American Silver Eagle Record Brewing?
Sales of American Silver Eagles set a third consecutive record in 2015.
First Quarter 2016 sales of American Silver Eagles outpaced the annual sales of each year from 1986 to 2007.
March 2016 Gold Sales at the U.S. Mint
The U.S. Mint Sold 29,000 one ounce American Gold Eagles in March 2015
March 2016 one ounce American Gold Eagles sales of 29,000 were down 17.1% from 35,000 sold in March 2015 and down 57% from 67,500 sold in February 2016.
The U.S. Mint sold 29,000 one ounce American Gold Eagle coins in March 2016.
xxxxx
Sales of one ounce American Gold Eagle coins rebounded in 2015 from 2014’s lowest total since 2007.
You can compare pricing and shipping charges on American Gold Eagles coins of all sizes at these web sites:
BGASC.com
Golden Eagle Coins
JM Bullion
Money Metals Exchange
March 2016 Sales of American Gold Buffalo Coins
The U.S. Mint sold 7,000 one ounce American Gold Buffalo coins in March, down 26.3% from 9,500 sold in March 2015.The American Gold Buffalo coin has increased in popularity in recent years.
American Gold Buffalo sales 2006 – 2015
BGASC.com
Golden Eagle Coins
JM Bullion
Money Metals Exchange
The Gold Silver Ratio March 2015
Chart showing how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold – March 2016:March 2015 – March 2016 Gold Silver Ratio
The gold silver ratio soared above 80 to 1 in March 2016.
The Silver to Gold Sales Ratio
Sales of American Silver Eagles outpaced sales of American Gold Eagles by 141.59 to one in March 2016. In March 2015 the silver to gold sales ratio was 100.54 to 1.The silver to gold sales ratio is measured by the sales of physical gold bullion vs. sales of physical silver bullion at the U.S. Mint. We track the sales of one ounce American Gold Eagles vs. one ounce American Silver Eagles.
Sales of American Silver Eagle coins have out paced sales of American Gold Eagle coins by more than 100 to 1 in 2014 and 2015.
America The Beautiful Update
The U.S. Mint yet released the first America the Beautiful (ATB) silver five ounce coin ofthe 2016 series in February, the Shawnee National Forest coin. Sales of the Shawnee National Forest coin were 105,000, the second most of any ATB coin. Only the Gettysburg National Military Park and Glacier National Park coins minted in 2011 with sales of 126,700 each have sold more. Sales of the Shawnee National Forest coin are nearly as high as the total coins sales of all five ATB coins issued 2012 when 113,800 ATB coins were sold.The U.S. Mint is scheduled to release five America the Beautiful silver coins in 2016, including Shawnee National Forest, Cumberland Gap National Historical Park, Harpers Ferry National Historical Park, Theodore Roosevelt National Park and Fort Sumter National Monument.
In 2015 the U.S. Mint sold 212,500 America the Beautiful silver five ounce coins for a total of 1.060,000 ounces of silver.
In 2014, the U.S. Mint sold 135,300 American the Beautiful silver five ounce coins for a total of 676,500 ounces sold.
In 2013, the U.S. Mint sold 160,000 silver America the Beautiful five ounce coins for a total of 800,000 ounces sold.
In 2015 the U.S. Mint sold 212,000 five ounce America the Beautiful silver coins.
America The Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins – available from BGASC.com.
Silver was $15.45 per ounce
Silver Price Average in March $15.42 vs. $16.22 in March 2015 (4.9% lower)
Silver Price Average in February $15.05 vs. $16.84 an ounce in February 2015 (10.6% lower)
Silver Price Average in January: $14.02 vs. $17.10 an ounce in January 2015 (18% lower)
Silver Price Average in 2013: $23.79
Silver Price Average in 2014: $20.05
Silver Price Average in 2015: $17.10
Gold was $1231.30 per ounce
Gold Price Average in March $1246.34 vs $1178.63 an ounce in March 2015 (5.7% higher)
Gold Price Average in February $1198.16 vs. $1227.19 an ounce in February 2015 (2.4% lower)
Gold Price Average in January: $1097.37 vs. $1251.88 an ounce in January 2015 (12.3% lower)
Gold Price Average in 2013: $1412.05
Gold Price Average in 2014: $1290.70
Gold Price Average in 2015: $1251.85
Sources: Kitco and United States Mint
*In March 2016, the U.S. Mint also sold: 1,000 one half ounce gold American Eagle coins, 4,000 one quarter ounce gold American Eagle coins and 75,000 one tenth ounce gold American Eagle coins (a total of 9,000 ounces in fractional gold Eagles coins) Including the 29,000 one ounce gold American Eagle coins, the Mint sold 38,000 ounces of gold American Eagle coins and 7,000 one ounce Gold Buffalo coins for a total of 45,000 ounces of gold sold.
Coming soon: the 100-year loan to a bankrupt government
by Simon Black
We’ve discussed many times before how 2016 is looking a whole lot like 2008, right before Lehman went under.
And the next time around, as people look back and try to find the top in retrospect, the following news may certainly be one of the candidates—
Yesterday we found out that the government of Ireland is set to issue a bond with a duration of 100 years. An entire century!
Just think of how much has happened in the last hundred years. How many wars. How much debt. How many crises.
And just imagine what the next hundred years looks like.
It seems absolutely insane to take a bet on anything for an entire century, let alone a government that basically went bankrupt just a couple of years ago.
Ireland was one of the worst off in the 2008 financial crisis and it seems foolish to think that they’ve turned themselves around so quickly and to the point that they’re credit-worthy for an entire century.
That’s such a long period of time, you can’t even guarantee that the country will even exist after so long.
Worse yet, the coupon rate that these bonds carry is a measly 2.35%.
It remains to be seen how the market will price this bond, but it’s safe to say that investors who are crazy enough to buy this debt will be poorly compensated for the risk that they take.
This is just another stark reminder of how broken the financial system has become.
Where the most idiotic ideas—like loaning money to a bankrupt government for a hundred years, at a rate that’s likely below inflation—can be dressed up and passed off as a credible investment.
We’ve seen how this plays out.
This is little different than giving no-money down loans to unemployed, homeless people as happened during the last bubble.
And just like last time, when we look back from the future, it will all seem so obvious.
After every major financial crisis there’s always a retrospective analysis where we can look back and identify “the top”.
Looking back at the tech bubble of the 1990s, for example, all of my
friends in technology point to the acquisition of Netscape by AOL for
$4.2 billion as the obvious top of the tech bubble.We’ve discussed many times before how 2016 is looking a whole lot like 2008, right before Lehman went under.
And the next time around, as people look back and try to find the top in retrospect, the following news may certainly be one of the candidates—
Yesterday we found out that the government of Ireland is set to issue a bond with a duration of 100 years. An entire century!
Just think of how much has happened in the last hundred years. How many wars. How much debt. How many crises.
And just imagine what the next hundred years looks like.
It seems absolutely insane to take a bet on anything for an entire century, let alone a government that basically went bankrupt just a couple of years ago.
Ireland was one of the worst off in the 2008 financial crisis and it seems foolish to think that they’ve turned themselves around so quickly and to the point that they’re credit-worthy for an entire century.
That’s such a long period of time, you can’t even guarantee that the country will even exist after so long.
Worse yet, the coupon rate that these bonds carry is a measly 2.35%.
It remains to be seen how the market will price this bond, but it’s safe to say that investors who are crazy enough to buy this debt will be poorly compensated for the risk that they take.
This is just another stark reminder of how broken the financial system has become.
Where the most idiotic ideas—like loaning money to a bankrupt government for a hundred years, at a rate that’s likely below inflation—can be dressed up and passed off as a credible investment.
We’ve seen how this plays out.
This is little different than giving no-money down loans to unemployed, homeless people as happened during the last bubble.
And just like last time, when we look back from the future, it will all seem so obvious.
HUD Wants to Make Living in a Tiny House or RV Illegal
By Daisy LutherThe tiny house movement has taken America by storm, in part because our economy is in the toilet. People are striving to reduce their expenses by embracing minimalism. They’re breaking free from the corporate grind because, as I’ve always advised, they are learning to live with less and radically reducing their expenses.
But, these days in America, you are sharply admonished when you try to live your life outside of the strictures of the 9-5 world. Is it any surprise that the government is now taking steps to limit our ability to drastically reduce our expenses? They always seem to make illegal anything we try to do to be more independent and moving into a tiny house appears to be the next on their list.
HUD has proposed the following law:
This proposed rule would modify the current exemption for recreational vehicles in the Manufactured Home Procedural and Enforcement Regulations. Under the current exemption, questions have arisen regarding whether park model recreational vehicles are regulated by HUD’s manufactured home program. These park models are being produced with patio roofs, screened in porches, and other extensions that exceed the 400 square foot maximum exemption in the current regulations. Additionally, some of these models are being marketed as suitable for year round living. HUD’s proposed rule would permit recreational vehicle manufactures to certify that a unit is exempted from HUD’s regulations. Specifically, HUD’s proposed rule would define a recreational vehicle as a factory build vehicular structure, not certified as a manufactured home, designed only for recreational use and not as a primary residence or for permanent occupancy, and built and certified in accordance with either the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 1192-2015, Standard for Recreational Vehicles, or the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) A119.5-15, Recreational Park Trailer Standard. In addition, to provide consumers notice regarding the manufacturing standards used to construct the unit, HUD’s rule would require that units claiming the exemption display a notice that identifies the standards used to construct the unit and states that the unit is designed only for recreational use, and not as a primary residence or permanent dwelling.
Image Credit
Please feel free to share any information from this site in part or in full, leaving all links intact, giving credit to the author and including a link to this website and the following bio. Daisy Luther lives on a small organic homestead in Northern California. She is the author of The Organic Canner, The Pantry Primer: A Prepper’s Guide to Whole Food on a Half-Price Budget, and The Prepper’s Water Survival Guide: Harvest, Treat, and Store Your Most Vital Resource. On her website, The Organic Prepper, Daisy uses her background in alternative journalism to provide a unique perspective on health and preparedness, and offers a path of rational anarchy against a system that will leave us broke, unhealthy, and enslaved if we comply. Daisy’s articles are widely republished throughout alternative media. You can follow her on Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter,.
Please feel free to share any information from this site in part or in full, leaving all links intact, giving credit to the author and including a link to this website and the following bio. Daisy Luther lives on a small organic homestead in Northern California. She is the author of The Organic Canner, The Pantry Primer: A Prepper’s Guide to Whole Food on a Half-Price Budget, and The Prepper’s Water Survival Guide: Harvest, Treat, and Store Your Most Vital Resource. On her website, The Organic Prepper, Daisy uses her background in alternative journalism to provide a unique perspective on health and preparedness, and offers a path of rational anarchy against a system that will leave us broke, unhealthy, and enslaved if we comply. Daisy’s articles are widely republished throughout alternative media. You can follow her on Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter,.
Harvey Organ: North West Territorial Mint Refusing to Ship Gold & Silver to Customers!
GLD WITHDRAWS 1.19 TONNES FROM ITS
INVENTORY TODAY/JOBS REPORT TOMORROW/CHINA AGAIN PLACES YUAN HIGHER
WHICH TRAMPLES THE SHORTS/OFF SHORE CHINA COMPANY GUOSEN, SUB. OF STATE
OWNED COMPANY, DEFAULTS ON LOAN/BRAZIL CLOSER TO DEFAULT AS IT RECORDS A
HUGE 10.7% DEFICIT TO GDP
Gold: $1,234.20 up $7.30 (comex closing time)
Silver 15.46 up 25 cents
Tomorrow
is the FOMC report and we always see huge volatility on this report.
The April report for March generally sees a lower plug for seasonal
adjustments so we might see a better atmosphere for gold and silver.
Also options expiry is over so we may have a good day in our precious
metals.
Let us have a look at the data for today.
At the gold comex today, we had a poor
delivery day, registering 58 notices for 5800 ounces on first notice day
for gold,and for silver we had 2 notices for 10,000 oz for the active
March delivery month.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 213.10 tonnes for a loss of 90 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest ROSE by 1556 contracts UP to 176,801 despite the fact that the silver price was down 9 cents with respect to yesterday’s trading . In ounces, the OI is still represented by .884 billion oz or 126% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 2 notices served upon for 10,000 oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI was obliterated as the complex fell by 10,057 contracts down to 470,384 contracts as the price of gold was DOWN $8.90 with yesterday’s trading.(at comex closing).
We had a small change in the GLD, a withdrawal of 1.19 tonnes from the GLD/ thus the inventory rests tonight at 819.28 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver,we had no changes in inventory tonight and thus the Inventory rests at 330.389 million oz.
2b COT report/
(Harvey)
2c) FRBNY
Harvey
none today
ii)POBC responds to Yellen by raising yuan value and slams shorters
(Harvey/zero hedge)
iii)S and P revises China’s credit
outlook to negative on growth as they have considerable concerns of its
huge 35 trillion USA debt loans:
i)Tomorrow
is the first day that the ECB will begin its purchases of corporate
bonds. This will cause corporate bond yields to fall in similar fashion
to sovereign yields as traders front run the ECB. Eventually, this
will lead to a scarcity of corporate bonds and this will force the ECB
to monetize junk bonds or just about anything it can get its hands on:
( zero hedge/ a must read.)
ii)For two months in a row, the EU
experienced deflation of a drop of .1% in March after a drop of -.2% in
February. If they removed food and energy, inflation was more modest.
However it is still well below its 2% target and these bozos will
continue with negative rates trying to drive up inflation:
i)This should be interesting: Turkey arrests the shooter of that Russian parachuting out of his downed plane.
What is Erdogan up to? Is he trying to cozy up to Putin?
(courtesy zero hedge)
ii)The tourism industry brings in 32 billion USA annually into Sweden, and this does not include food, entertainment and transportation. This is now gone as there is now no more hotel beds to house the tourists as the refugee centers have taken them all.
Brazil now has a fiscal deficit of
10.7% of GDP. It has a primary deficit of 2.1% (primary deficit
excludes interest payments). The country’s interest bill is a whopping
8.6% of GDP.NBC has sold 1 billion dollars worth of ads for the summer
games. Good luck trying to get refunds from this bankrupt country:
( zero hedge)
ii)North West Territorial Mint not refunding 100 to 200 customers of its orders for silver and gold:
(courtesy Chanel K5 News/Seattle)
iii)Copper continues to fall amid huge Chinese inventories of the metal:
This will put tremendous pressure of Glencore and friends.
( zero hedge)
i)Huge increase in initial and continual jobless claims
Today we had 1 dealer deposit
Into Brinks: 1699.930 oz
Into Scotia: 39,993.635 oz
total customer deposits: 39,993.635 oz
Today we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of HSBC: 39,993.635 oz (most likely a settlement of a delivery)
total customer withdrawals; 39,993.635 oz
Today we had 1 adjustment:
Out of Brinks: 100.00 oz of gold removed from the dealer and this landed into the customer of brinks This would be a delivery (.
APRIL INITIAL standings
/March 31/2016:
today we had 0 deposits into the dealer account
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil
we had 1 customer deposits
i) Into Delaware: 6962.580 oz
i) Out of Scotia:
600,157.300 oz
we had 0 adjustments
MARCH 30/no changes in inventory/inventory rests tonight at 820,47 tonnes
March 29/a withdrawal of 3.27 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 820.47 tonnes. (No doubt we will see a rise in gold inventory with tomorrow’s reading)
March 28/no change in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 823.74 tonnes
March 24.2016: a deposit of 2.08 tonnes of gold into its inventory/and this after a big drubbing these past two days??/Inventory rests at 823.74 tones
March 23/no changes at the GLD today despite the gold drubbing. Inventory rests at 821.66 tonnes
March 22./no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 821.66 tonnes
MARCH 21/another big deposit of 2.68 tonnes/inventory rests tonight at 821.66 tonnes
(and this was done with gold down $10.00 today!!)
March 18.I GIVE UP!! WITH GOLD DOWN TODAY, THE CROOKS OVER AT GLD ADDED ANOTHER IDENTICAL 11.89 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THEIR INVENTORY.
INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 818.98 TONNES. IF I WAS A SHAREHOLDER OF THIS ENTITY I WOULD BE VERY WORRIED.
North West Territorial Mint not refunding 100 to 200 customers of its orders for silver and gold:
(courtesy Chanel 5 News/Seattle)
FEDERAL WAY, WASH. – The owner of a large gold and silver mint based in Federal Way admits he owes money to 100 to 200 customers all over the country.
Ross Hansen, owner of Northwest Territorial Mint, says he has not delivered products or refunded money to those customers even when they demanded it.
Northwest Territorial Mint is one of the largest private gold and silver mints in the country.
One of those unhappy customers is Kelly Clifton, who runs a small ministry in Sultan.
Clifton ordered $6,000 worth of gold bullion in February from a small inheritance. A few weeks later, while still waiting for the gold, she says she asked for a refund. The company gave her half, she says.
“The rest of it, we were told, we may get or we may not get,” said Clifton.
Other customers have similar complaints.
Hansen told KING 5 he is not selling products or refunding money because he lost a $38 million defamation lawsuit in Nevada.
Gold: $1,234.20 up $7.30 (comex closing time)
Silver 15.46 up 25 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1232.60
silver: 15.43Gold $1232.60
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 213.10 tonnes for a loss of 90 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest ROSE by 1556 contracts UP to 176,801 despite the fact that the silver price was down 9 cents with respect to yesterday’s trading . In ounces, the OI is still represented by .884 billion oz or 126% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 2 notices served upon for 10,000 oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI was obliterated as the complex fell by 10,057 contracts down to 470,384 contracts as the price of gold was DOWN $8.90 with yesterday’s trading.(at comex closing).
We had a small change in the GLD, a withdrawal of 1.19 tonnes from the GLD/ thus the inventory rests tonight at 819.28 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver,we had no changes in inventory tonight and thus the Inventory rests at 330.389 million oz.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in
silver rose by 1556 contracts up to 176,801 despite the fact that the
price of silver was DOWN 9 cents with yesterday’s trading.Investors
flocked into silver on the dovish Yellen speech where she indicated that
she is reticent to raise rates. The total OI for gold fell by a
whopping 10057 contracts, which is the custom lately, to 470,384
contracts as gold was down $8.90 in price from yesterday’s level and we
are now entering a new active delivery month.
(report Harvey)
2 a) Gold trading overnight, Goldcore
(Mark OByrne)
off today2b COT report/
2c) FRBNY
Harvey
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
.i)Late WEDNESDAY night/ THURSDAY morning: Shanghai
closed UP BY 3.27 POINTS OR 0.11% , / Hang Sang closed DOWN 26.69
POINTS OR 0.13% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 120.29 POINTS OR 0.71% .
Australia’s all ordinaires was CLOSED UP 1.46%. Chinese yuan (ONSHORE)
closed UP at 6.4570. Oil FELL to 38.22 dollars per barrel for WTI and
40.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE RED . Offshore yuan trades
6.4611 yuan to the dollar vs 6.4570 for onshore yuan. Japanese
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION plunges the most in almost 5 years as negative
interest rates ARE KILLING BUSINESS. China continues to send it’s
positive response to Janet Yellen’s dovish message of keeping USA
interest rates on hold. China, after March 20 had caused its yuan to
fall badly in value after 3 USA Fed governors were trying to jawbone
Yellen into raising rates. She won out against them. Now the shorts are
crushed (see below/report on China)
REPORT ON JAPAN
REPORT ON CHINA
(Harvey/zero hedge)
(zero hedge)
iv)Guosen Securities, China’s eighth
largest investment bank has defaulted on a loan payment in Hong Kong.
This is the first offshore default by a state owned firm. It now seems
that China has changed her mind and will now allow firms to default.
They have been paying off defaulting entities with new loans up to now.
( zero hedge)
v)The POBC created a subsidiary called Buttonwood and this entity is buying directly Chinese stocks and supporting their price
( zero hedge)
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
( zero hedge)
iii)Huge protests in France today protesting the governments new labour reforms”
( zero hedge)
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ii)The tourism industry brings in 32 billion USA annually into Sweden, and this does not include food, entertainment and transportation. This is now gone as there is now no more hotel beds to house the tourists as the refugee centers have taken them all.
(courtesy zero hedge)
6.EMERGING MARKETS
7.PHYSICAL MARKETS
i)Gold has best start in Q one in 42 years:
(courtesy zero hedge)ii)North West Territorial Mint not refunding 100 to 200 customers of its orders for silver and gold:
(courtesy Chanel K5 News/Seattle)
iii)Copper continues to fall amid huge Chinese inventories of the metal:
This will put tremendous pressure of Glencore and friends.
( zero hedge)
8.OIL MARKETS
The Canadian banks are totally under reserved for losses in oil and gas. This will be the next shoe to fall:
( zero hedge)
( zero hedge)
9. USA STORIES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER
(courtesy BLS/zero hedge)
ii)Chicago’s national mfg PMI bounces back to 53.6 but remains lower than January’s 55.5
( Chicago PMI mfg index)
iii)The market is now more confused
than ever as dovish Chicago Fed Evans goes from hawkish to dovish and
then back to hawkish in just two weeks.
Pay no attention to these bozos, China is all that matters.
( zero hedge)
iv)Bloomberg’s consumer comfort index falls again as the consumer is just not as exuberant as the Fed would like it to be
( zero hedge)
v)Now it is JPM to shave 1/2% off first half GDP
( JPM/zero hedge)
Nobody yet knows what this means, but the GC repo rate just skyrocketed from
.40% all the way up to 1.75%. Does it mean lack of liquidity?
We will find out shortly but it is worth bringing this to your attention!
( zero hedge)
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest was
obliterated down to 470,384 for a loss of 10,057 contracts as the price
of gold was down $8.90 in price with respect to yesterday’s trading. We
are now entering the active delivery month of April. For the past two
years, we have strangely witnessed two interesting developments with
respect to the gold open interest: 1) total gold comex collapse in OI
as we enter an active delivery month or for that matter an inactive
month, and 2) a continual drop in the amount of gold standing in an
active month. We certainly witnessed the first part and thus we will see
how the month progresses on part 2. In the active delivery month of
April, we witnessed it’s OI fall by a humongous 22,721 contracts down
to 6,850 contracts, much higher than usual . The next non active
contract month of May saw its OI rise by 24 contracts up to 2609. The
estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular
business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est)
was poor at 138,077. . The confirmed volume yesterday (which includes
the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the
previous day was fair at 239,258 contracts. The comex is not in
backwardation. . The options for the comex was over on Tuesday. However we still have LBMA options and OTC options which expired today.
Today we had 58 notices filed for 5800 oz in gold.
Today we had 58 notices filed for 5800 oz in gold.
And now for the wild silver comex
results. Silver OI rose by 1556 contracts from 175,245 up to 176,801
despite the fact that the price of silver was down 9 cents with
yesterday’s trading. The big active contract month of March is now off
the board. The next contract month after March is April and here the OI
fell by 30 contracts down to 236. The next active contract month is
May and here the OI fell by 584 contracts down to 114,643. This level is
exceedingly high. The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at
45,572 , which is very good. The confirmed volume yesterday (comex +
globex) was excellent at 52,968. Silver is not in backwardation. In
London it is in backwardation for several months.
We had 2 notices filed for 10,000 oz.
April contract month:
INITIAL standings for APRIL
March 31/2016INITIAL standings for APRIL
| Gold |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil | 39,993.635 ozHSBC |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 1699.93 OZBRINKS |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 39,993.635 ozSCOTIA |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 58 contracts (5800 oz) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 6792 contracts 679,200 oz/ |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 58 contracts (5800 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | nil |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | 39,993.635 oz |
Into Brinks: 1699.930 oz
Total dealer deposits; 1699.93 oz
Today we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
Today we had 1 customer deposit:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
Today we had 1 customer deposit:
Into Scotia: 39,993.635 oz
total customer deposits: 39,993.635 oz
Today we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of HSBC: 39,993.635 oz (most likely a settlement of a delivery)
total customer withdrawals; 39,993.635 oz
Today we had 1 adjustment:
Out of Brinks: 100.00 oz of gold removed from the dealer and this landed into the customer of brinks This would be a delivery (.
.
Today, 0 notices was issued from
JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or
customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates
to 58 contracts of which 16 notices was stopped (received) by JPMorgan
dealer and 11 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer
account.
To calculate the initial total
number of gold ounces standing for the Mar contract month, we take the
total number of notices filed so far for the month (58) x 100 oz or
72,300 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest
for the front month of March (6850 contracts) minus the number of
notices served upon today (58) x 100 oz x 100 oz per contract equals
the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for gold for the April. contract month:
No of notices served so
far (58) x 100 oz or ounces + {OI for the front month (6850) minus the
number of notices served upon today (58) x 100 oz which equals 685,000
oz standing in this non active delivery month of April (21.306 tonnes).
Since the comex allows GLD shares
to be used for settling, it may take quite a while for the physical
gold to enter the comex vaults. So far I have seen little evidence of
any settling of contracts but I will continue to monitor it for you.
We
thus have 21.306 tonnes of gold standing for April and 10.38 tonnes of
registered gold for sale, waiting to serve upon those standing. The
bankers are still doing their best in cash settling as there is not
enough registered gold to satisfy those that are standing.
We now have partial evidence of gold
settling for last months deliveries We now have 21.306 tonnes (April)
+2.2311 tonnes (March) + 7.99 (total Feb)- .940 (probable delivery on
March 1) tonnes -.0434 tonnes (March 11,12,17,18) + today’s 1.2470 =
27.29 tonnes still standing against 10.38 tonnes available. .
Total dealer inventor 340,058.141 oz or 10.577 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =6,851,169.567 or 213.10 tonnes
Several months ago the comex had
303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 213.10
tonnes for a loss of 90 tonnes over that period.
JPMorgan has only 21.15 tonnes of gold total (both dealer and customer)
end
And now for silver
/March 31/2016:
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 600,157.300 OZ. SCOTIA |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 6962.58 ozDELAWARE |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 2 contracts 10,000 oz |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 234 contracts)(1,170,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2 contracts (10,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | nil oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 600,157.300 oz |
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil
total customer deposits: 6962.580 oz
We had 1 customer withdrawals:i) Out of Scotia:
600,157.300 oz
:
total customer withdrawals: 600,157.300 oz
The total number of notices filed
today for the March contract month is represented by 2 contracts for
10,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for
delivery in March., we take the total number of notices filed for the
month so far at (2) x 5,000 oz = 10,000 oz to which we add the
difference between the open interest for the front month of March (236)
and the number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz equals the
number of ounces standing
Thus the initial standings for silver for the March. contract month: 2 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(236{ OI for front month of March ) -number of notices served upon today (2)x 5000 oz equals 1,180,000 oz of silver standing for the March contract month.
Total dealer silver: 32.323 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 154.998 million oz
The open interest on silver continues
to rise despite the low price of silver. It looks like we are heading
for a commercial failure.
end
.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
MARCH 31/a small withdrawal of 1.19 tonnes/inventory rests tonight at 819.28 tonnesMARCH 30/no changes in inventory/inventory rests tonight at 820,47 tonnes
March 29/a withdrawal of 3.27 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 820.47 tonnes. (No doubt we will see a rise in gold inventory with tomorrow’s reading)
March 28/no change in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 823.74 tonnes
March 24.2016: a deposit of 2.08 tonnes of gold into its inventory/and this after a big drubbing these past two days??/Inventory rests at 823.74 tones
March 23/no changes at the GLD today despite the gold drubbing. Inventory rests at 821.66 tonnes
March 22./no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 821.66 tonnes
MARCH 21/another big deposit of 2.68 tonnes/inventory rests tonight at 821.66 tonnes
(and this was done with gold down $10.00 today!!)
March 18.I GIVE UP!! WITH GOLD DOWN TODAY, THE CROOKS OVER AT GLD ADDED ANOTHER IDENTICAL 11.89 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THEIR INVENTORY.
INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 818.98 TONNES. IF I WAS A SHAREHOLDER OF THIS ENTITY I WOULD BE VERY WORRIED.
March 17/we had a whopper of a deposit tonight: 11.89 tonnes/with London in backwardation this is nothing but a paper addition/inventory rests tonight at 807.09 tonnes
March 16.2016:/we had a deposit of 2.09 + 2.97(last in the evening) tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 795.20 tonnes
March 15/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 790.14 tonnes
March 16.2016:/we had a deposit of 2.09 + 2.97(last in the evening) tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 795.20 tonnes
March 15/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 790.14 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
March 31.2016: inventory rests at 819.28 tonnes
end
Now the SLV Inventory
MARCH 31/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV tonight/inventory rests at 330.389 million oz
MARCH 30/no change in inventory/inventory rests at 330.389 million oz
March 29.2016: a huge deposit of 1.475 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory rests at 330.389 million oz
March 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 328.914 million oz
March 24.2016/no change in inventory/rests tonight at 328.914 million oz/
March 23/we lost 1.428 million oz as a withdrawal today/SLV inventory rests at 328.914 million oz
March 22./ a huge deposit of 1.809 million oz of a silver deposit into the SLV/inventory rests at 330.342 million oz.
MARCH 21/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests tonight at 328.533 million oz
March 18/ANOTHER WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 2.665 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.533 MILLION OZ
March 17/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 325.868 million oz
March 16./no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 325.868 million oz
March 15/ no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 325.868 million oz/
.
March 31.2016: Inventory 330.389 million oz
.end
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 6.9 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 6.8% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 63.9%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.1%
cash .0%( Mar 31.2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to 4.73%!!!! NAV (Mar 31.2016)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to -0.46% to NAV Mar 31.2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back into positive territory at +4.73%/Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -0.46%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
end
Federal Reserve Bank of New York report on gold leaving NY shores:
Today, the FRBNY reports no change in gold inventory and thus no gold is leaving for Germany’s Bundesbank .
FRBNY gold in Feb 2016: 7995 million dollars worth of gold at $42.22
FRBNY gold for March 2016: 7995 million dollars worth of gold at $42.22
total gold departing: zer0
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