The U.S. ‘Recovery’ Is Coming To An End?

Nearly half of modified mortgages are in default

Nearly half of the mortgages modified in 2009 under the Obama administration’s signature homeowner rescue effort are in default again, according to a report on Wednesday that raised concerns about the program’s effectiveness.

The report from the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP), the watchdog for the aid effort, said 46 percent of the struggling homeowners who received loan modifications in 2009 under the Home Affordable Modification Program had redefaulted.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100909783

Most Americans say nation is headed off track: NBC-WSJ poll
Some 61 percent of Americans polled say the nation is headed off on the wrong track compared to 29 percent who say it’s headed in the right direction; that compares to the 53 percent and 41 percent, respectively, findings last December in the wake of President Obama’s re-election.
Mr. Obama’s own job approval has declined to 45 percent, with 50 percent disapproving; that’s down from 53-43 percent in December. Congress drew its worst approval score in the quarter-century history, with just 12 percent approving and 83 percent percent disapproving. Americans rate House Speaker John Boehner negatively by a two to one margin, with 36 percent expressing negative views and 18 percent positive.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100908713
Up In ARMs: Adjustable Rate Mortgage Applications Soar To 2008 Pre-Lehman Mania Levels
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-24/arms-adjustable-rate-mortgage-applications-soar-2008-pre-lehman-mania-levels
 While homebuilder confidence has been coming in strong, we’ve had some disappointing housing data more recently
The FHFA home price index climbed 0.7% month-over-month in May.

This was just shy of expectations for a 0.8% rise.
Meanwhile, April’s reading was revised down to show a 0.5% rise in the HPI, down from an initial estimate of 0.7%.
While homebuilder confidence has been coming in strong, we’ve had some disappointing housing data more recently.
Housing starts fell in June and the previous month’s numbers were revised down as well. Existing home sales missed expectations as well. Experts are also worried about the impact that higher mortgage rates could have on the housing recovery.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/may-fhfa-home-prices-2013-7#ixzz2ZsI28695
Farewell “Housing Recovery” – Housing Starts Miss Most Since January 2007, Permits Have Biggest Miss In History


In all the noise surrounding Bernanke’s rehash of statements made countless times before, today’s only relevant data point – June housing starts and permits – was largely ignored. And one can see why: printing at 836K, the starts number was the lowest since August 2012, the second largest sequential drop (down from 928K in May) since 2011 and the biggest miss to expectations of 957K since January 2007!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-17/farewell-housing-recovery-housing-starts-miss-most-january-2007-permits-have-biggest
US GDP GROWTH SLASHED TO 1.8% IN Q1
http://www.businessinsider.com/q1-us-gdp-final-2013-6#ixzz2XKD9X9cp
Barclays cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 0.6% from 1.0% following wholesale inventories!!!
It was only a matter of time before Wall Street, overoptimistically hockeysticking everything as always, slammed its wrong Q2 GDP forecasts following the earlier miss in Wholesale Inventories, which printed at -0.5% on expectations of a +0.3% increase, and down from a downward revised -0.1% (was +0.2%). That time has arrived, with Barclays the first to slash its already stall speed 1.0% Q2 GDP forecast by a whopping 40% to 0.4%. Looking forward to the imminent revisions from Goldman and, of course, Joe “Almost as good as Groundhog Phil, almost” Lavorgna.
From Barclays:

US Q2 GDP tracking: Down four-tenths to 0.6% on decline in wholesale inventories
Wholesale inventories declined by 0.5% m/m in May, significantly weaker than our forecast (+0.2%) and the consensus (+0.3%). In addition, growth in April was revised down to -0.1% from +0.2%. This subtracted 0.4pp from our Q2 GDP tracking estimate, which now stands at just 0.6% q/q (saar).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-10/here-comes-stall-speed-barclays-cuts-q2-gdp-forecast-06
Caterpillar Just Downgraded The Whole World
http://www.businessinsider.com/caterpillar-q2-earnings-2013-7?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheMoneyGame+%28The+Money+Game%29
Who could have possibly foreseen this? Perhaps anyone who saw our chart from yesterday showing the recession implied in CAT sales…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-24/cat-doesnt-bounce-big-miss-and-forecast-cut
Global Business Confidence Slips to Multi-Year Low
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-19/global-business-confidence-slips-multi-year-low
Mismeasuring Our Economy: Why the GDP is Not Useful