You can smell this one coming a mile away:
The European Central Bank and Bank of England on Friday outlined options to reinvigorate the market for bundled bank loans, which was “tarnished” by the global financial crisis, saying
a better-functioning market for asset-backed securities can help boost
lending to the private sector, particularly small businesses.
What they are really up to, however, is money-printing and snookering the German sound money camp. That
is, the ECB is getting set to launch QE in financial drag by purchasing
or discounting ABCP while loudly proclaiming that it’s not “monetizing”
any stinking sovereign debt!
And that gets to the heart of
monetary central planning. It doesn’t matter what the central bank buys
with the digital credits it transfers to sellers. Purchasing government
debt, Fannie Mae securities, IBM bonds or corporate equities, as has
been done by the BOJ and Bank Of Israel under the new Fed Vice-Chairman,
has a common effect. That is, it raises the price of the purchased
“assets” relative to what would obtain in the unfettered market, and
injects fiat liquidity into the financial system in a manner that
promotes speculation and excessive risk-taking.
Thus, if some clever Wall
Street operators could figure out how to bundle sea shells and
securitize them, central bank purchase of the resulting ABCP would be no
different than purchase of treasury notes or Fannie Mae paper.
Unfortunately, the German
keepers of the flame of financial orthodoxy have been too narrow in
their focus on central bank “monetization” of government debt. To be
sure, they are correct in maintaining that central bank purchase
of sovereign debt inexorably promotes fiscal profligacy among the
politicians. The fact that the debt of nearly ever DM government has
soared to 100% of GDP and beyond since the era of monetary central
planning got going in the 1990s is undeniable evidence.
But the true economic sin lies
in the fiat credit generated by central banks monetization, not the
particular type of “asset” purchase by which it is accomplished. Stated
differently, debt which is priced at honest market rates and is funded
by new savings from businesses or households is economically healthy;
it involves a deferral of current consumption in order to finance a
longer-lived project or productive asset that promises a return in
excess of the funding cost.
By contrast, central bank
balance sheet expansion—that is, monetization of government debt or
asset-backed sea shells—results in borrowing without saving; investment
without honest hurdle rates; and the re-rating of existing
asset prices based on carry trades, not an elevation of expected
economic returns.
So in clearing the way to
“monetization” of ABCP, the ECB is simply heading down the path of
Bernanke/Yellen style quantitative easing though a transparent gimmick
that may or may not bamboozle the Germans. But it most certainly will
succeed in snookering the financial press as the post below from the
ever gullible Brian Blackstone of the WSJ clearly conveys.
But here’s the thing. The ABCP
market is not a place where hard-pressed business borrowers or
consumer’s can find a new source of credit outside the banking system. Instead,
it is a financial engineering arena in which banks will have a chance
to mint phony overnight profits through an accounting expedient known as
“gain-on-sale”.
What that means is that when
credit card receivables or small business loans are “bundled” by their
commercial bank issuers and sold into an off-balance conduit which
issues ABCP against these “assets”, the life-time profits of these loans
can be booked instantly. Indeed, modern technology allows the credit
card swipe to be booked as a profit nearly the same nanosecond as it
happens, and accounting convention allows the profits from a 7-year car
loan issued at 110% of the vehicle’s value to be recorded virtually at
the time it rolls off the dealer lot.
The smoking gun with respect to
the current ECB ploy is contained in the graph below for the US ABCP
market. As is evident, it went parabolic in the run-up to the 2008
meltdown, but has virtually vanished since. In fact, current
outstandings of about $250 billion are 80% below the July 2007 peak.
But there is nary a word in the
financial press about credit card or auto loans being too “tight” in
the US for a simple reason. Banks are more than happy to issue new loans
to credit-worthy business and consumer borrowers and hold them to
maturity on their own balance sheets. After all, with $2.7 trillion of
“excess reserves” parked at the New York Fed, “funding” is not an issue.
Moreover, the whole point of the Fed’s interest rate repression regime
is to create an artificially large profit spread on bank loan books in
order to revive dodgy balance sheets.
So we get back to the same old
ritual of Keynesian central banking: namely, if you only have a hammer,
everything looks like a nail. In truth, the only tool that central banks
actually have is monetization of existing assets and sea shells.
Accordingly, they invent excuses for more of the same, and devise clever
stratagems to disguise what they are doing.
In the present instant, the ECB
and its acolytes have been gumming for several months now about
“low-flation”. But that is ridiculous—if the claim is viewed in any
context except the run-rate of the last few hours or quarters.
Yes, during the last 12
months, euro area inflation has come in near what used to be viewed as
salutary price stability at 0.8%. But in the three years before that it
averaged about 1.9% or about as close to the ECB’s so-called inflation
target as your can get. Indeed, moderate inflation is endemic in
the European economies. It has averaged 1.8% since the eve of the 2008
crisis and essentially the same since 1997.
In short, Europe has more than
enough inflation and doesn’t need a revived ABCP market to generate
loans for the un-creditworthy. Today’s announcement is just part of
Draghi’s desperate attempt to deliver QE next week in a manner which
will not elicit a loud “nein!” from his German overseers.
By Brian Blackstone at the Wall Street Journal
FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank and Bank of England on Friday outlined options to reinvigorate the market for bundled bank loans, which was “tarnished” by the global financial crisis, saying a better-functioning market for asset-backed securities can help boost lending to the private sector, particularly small businesses.Improved harmonization of the rules applied to such packaged loans, the creation of principles to improve transparency and enhanced data on loans would help develop a deeper market for these types of securities, the banks said in a joint paper.More
“Looking ahead, the banking system is likely to need access to a wider range of funding sources,” the ECB and BOE said. “The revival of the ABS market can therefore play a useful role in ensuring that there is not a renewed buildup of systemic risk, including from excessive reliance upon any single source of financing,” they said.Friday’s report adds details to a shorter paper released in April that flagged the importance of a more beefed-up market for bundled bank loans for the European economy.Regulators should consider setting “high-level principles” to help identify simpler and more transparent securities, “enabling investors to model risk with confidence and providing originators with incentives to behave responsibly,” the central banks said.The discounts central banks apply to such securities to account for their riskiness when conducting lending operations to financial institutions, known as haircuts, “may also decrease commensurate with observable improvements in their risk characteristics,” according to the paper.“Securitization markets may also benefit from some harmonization of standards across the (European Union) alongside improvements in data availability,” the ECB and BOE said.The central banks are seeking comments on their recommendations by July 4.
No comments:
Post a Comment