Tuesday, May 14, 2013

The Global House of Cards Are Starting to Crumble: The Fed Looks To Exit Easy Money, Chinese Data Fails To Impress, And Japan And The Yen Are Hitting The Concrete Wall BIG TIME!!!

The Nikkei 225 has gone up like 40% since JANUARY!.
Money is flowing out of the bond market.
The Yen has devalued 25% this year.
25% devaluation when the year is almost halfway over is pointing towards something. I wonder if we will see more of this same trend, only growing exponentially faster.
In Weimar Germany, the stock market was one of the first refuges as people exited cash and bonds.
Let’s put it this way, if you owned Japanese Government Bonds on Thursday last week, (let’s say the 10-year bond for argument’s sake) you’re now ~25% poorer.
For a supposedly ‘risk free’ investment – the Japan government holds the printing press so will never default– this is a huge loss. 
Big insurance companies and pension funds are running like hell. They have TRILLIONS of these bonds and they’re losing value. They are dumping cash into the only assets they know hold some value in a currency crisis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GJGB10:IND
JGB Futures Halted (Again) For Biggest 2-Day Plunge Since Lehman; 5Y Yields Hit 13 Month Highs
Another night; another Japanese government bond futures halt. The last 2 days have seen JGB prices plunge at the fastest rate since the post-Lehman debacles in Sept/Oct 2008 smashing back to 13 month highs. 5Y yields are surging even more – trading above 34bps now (up from 9.9bps on March 5th). These are simply astronomical moves in the context of JGB history and strongly suggest Abe & Kuroda are anything but in control of the quadrillion Yen domestic bond market as they jawbone inflation expectations into the psychology of the people. Of course, the Nikkei is surging (now up 9% in the last 5 days alone) amid JPY breaking above 102 (but for now it has rallied back to 101.80). Japnese interest rate implied volatility is surging once again also (after its epic collapse last week – which appears the worst-timed lifting of hedges ever, or more like a lifting of hedges into an unwind of actual long positions).
with 10Y JGB Futures prices seeing their biggest 2-day selloff since Lehman…

More at source:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-13/jgb-futures-halted-again-biggest-2-day-plunge-lehman-5y-yields-hit-13-month-highs
THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF JAPAN IS NOW IN PROGRESS – ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A DEBT CRISIS
http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-economic-collapse-of-japan-is-now-in-progress-all-the-elements-are-in-place-for-a-debt-crisis/
Ex-Soros Advisor Sells “Almost All” Japan Holdings, Shorts Bonds; Sees Market Crash, Default And Hyperinflation
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-14/ex-soros-advisor-sells-almost-all-japan-holdings-shorts-bonds-sees-market-crash-defa
This is helpful in explaining the basics of the clusterfuck:
The Fed looks to exit easy money, Chinese data fails to impress
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-may-13-2013-5#ixzz2TAkrnier

Markets Are Sinking
Blame Jon Hilsenrath.
It’s nothing too dramatic, but the start of the week brings sinking markets.

US futures are off on the tune of 0.5%.
European markets are roughly in the same ballpark.
The big story that everyone is talking about is the article by Jon Hilsenrath in the Wall Street Journal about the Fed possibly beginning the first steps to unwind QE.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morning-markets-may-13-2013-5#ixzz2TAlWliuv

Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus
Timing of Wind-Down Is Uncertain, but Focus Is on Managing Unpredictable Market Expectations
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324744104578475273101471896.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories
NOMURA: It’s Time To Place Your Bets On The Comeback Of The US Dollar
Nomura currency guru Jens Nordvig writes:
The turn in JPY (yen) has been dramatic and has proven the importance of momentum when a multi-year cycle turns. A similar dynamic could be in store for the dollar. In the scheme of things, the USD REER (Real Effective Exchange Rates) is still trading close to multi-decade lows. Once the turn is evident, we believe momentum could be powerful.
On this basis, we think it is now time to put on some structural positions, looking for meaningful USD gains by year-end. We structure these positions to be resilient to near-term two-way risk. We would also look to add spot exposure should we better entry points be reached over the next one to two months.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nomura-its-time-to-place-big-bets-on-the-comeback-of-the-us-dollar-2013-5#ixzz2TAkwhUFQ
Andy Xie: Strong Dollar Could Cause Next Global Financial Crisis
As the U.S. economy recovers, a strengthening dollar might cause the next financial crisis, warns Singapore-based economist Andy Xie.
“The first dollar bull market in the 1980s triggered the Latin American debt crisis, the second the Asian Financial Crisis. Neither was a coincidence,” Xie writes for Caixin Online, a website specializing in China’s financial and business news.
When the dollar is in a bear market, liquidity flows into emerging markets, causing their currencies and asset prices to appreciate, which supports domestic demand. 
Read more: http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Andy-Xie-strong-dollar-crisis/2013/02/08/id/489498
Gold Bears Pull $20.8 Billion
Fund Outflows
Money managers withdrew $1.27 billion from gold and precious-metals funds in the week ended May 8, according to Cameron Brandt, the director of research for Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks money flows. This year’s outflows of $20.8 billion are the largest withdrawals since the firm began tracking the data in 2000.

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