The cost of Copenhagen may not hit your pocket

Tackling climate change may not cost the Earth, claims a study that shows that while plane travel will more than double in price, everyday household bills should remain stable.

Cars like the hybrid Toyota Prius will cost more to buy but over their life time will cost less as they are more economical

Researchers using economic computer models have calculated that the cost of food, alcohol, clothing and household goods will rise by less than a per cent under the Copenhagen climate conference proposals.

Even power and heating bills and car travel will see relatively modest rises by 2050, claims the research.

Only air travel will be massively affected, rocketing by 140 per cent in the same period.

“These results show that the global project to fight climate change is do-able,” said Alex Bowen, a climate policy expert at the London School of Economics.

“It’s not such a big ask as people are making out.”

The research was carried out by Cambridge Econometrics, a consultancy known for its modelling of the European economy, for the journal New Scientist.

The firm used historic economic data to predict the impact of emission reductions on prices in over 40 categories of goods and services.

It compared the impact of 80 per cent cut in carbon emissions by 2050 as proposed by the Copenhagen climate change conference with the predicted effects of the government taking no action.

They found that the average food bill of a UK household, which currently averages £50, would increase by less than £1 or one per cent.

Tobacco and alcohol are likely to rise by two per cent – the equivalent in today's money of 10 pence on a packet of cigarettes and six pence on a pint of beer.

Cars like the hybrid Toyota Prius will cost more to buy but over their life time will cost less as they are more economical, the researchers found. Overall the cost of motoring will rise by one per cent.

Clothing is likely to rise by one per cent adding £5 to a £500 suit and household goods such as washing machines will rise by two per cent.

Heating and power – which the model assumes will be switched to electricity – will increase by 15 per cent adding roughly £60 to the average current £400 bill.

Travel is likely to be the major exception. Airlines do not currently have a low-carbon alternative to jet fuel, the researchers said. Unless one is found, they will bear the full burden of higher fuel costs and carbon taxes, and average fares will rise by at least 140 per cent – raising the cost of a typical London to New York return trip from around £350 to £840.

“Even cutting emissions by 80 per cent over four decades has a very small effect on consumers in most areas,” Manik Roy of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change in Washington DC.

“The challenge is now to convince consumers and policy-makers that this is the case.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends that wealthy nations cut their emissions to between 80 and 95 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050 in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

The UK government aims to reduce its contribution by 80 per cent and leaders of the other G8 nations have discussed following suit if an agreement can be reached at Copenhagen.

To meet this goal, industries will have to slash fossil fuel consumption, and low-carbon power sources will have to massively expand.

Companies will have to pay increasingly higher prices for the right to emit greenhouse gases.

The Cambridge Econometrics figures - 2050 increases in today's prices

1% on clothing: A £500 men's suit will become £5 more expensive

2% on electronics: A £1,000 laptop would cost £20 more

1% on food: The average UK household spends £50 a week on food. This increases by less than £1

15% on electricity: A typical UK household spends £400 a year on electricity. This will jump by roughly £60

0% on communications: UK phone bills will be essentially unaffected

140% on air travel: A return flight from London to New York would jump from £350 to around £840

2% on tobacco: Barring new taxes, the cost of a pack of 20 cigarettes will rise by roughly 10 pence

2% on alcohol: The cost of a pint of beer will rise by about 6 pence by 2050

1% on cars: A new Toyota Prius, currently about £20,000, will cost £240 more in a low-carbon 2050

2% on household goods: The price of a washing machine will rise by a few pounds