Back in April 2013, we showed for the first time something few were aware of, namely that “At $72.8 Trillion, The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World” was not JPMorgan as some had expected, but Germany’s banking behemoth, Deutsche bank.
Some brushed it off, saying one
should never look at gross derivative exposure but merely net, to which
we had one simple response: net immediately becomes gross when just one
counterparty in the collateral chains fails – case in point, the Lehman
and AIG failures and the resulting scramble to bailout the entire world
which cost trillions in taxpayer funds.
We then followed it up one year later with “The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank’s $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP.”Then, last June, we asked the most pointed question yet: “Is Deutsche Bank The Next Lehman?” only this time it wasn’t just the bank’s gargantuan balance sheet risk shown below that was dominant…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-03/it-time-panic-about-deutsche-bank
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/728-trillion-presenting-bank-biggest-derivative-exposure-world-hint-not-jpmorgan
European banks near ‘terrifying’ crisis
already being stretched by global worries & issues within the banking system. TROUBLE COULD SPREAD TO U.S. BANKS.
With European banks sitting at multiyear lows, one widely followed
market watcher said some of the biggest ones could go bankrupt.
Former hedge fund manager and Goldman Sachs alumnus Raoul Pal said his scenario is one most investors aren’t looking at right now.
Pal said the banking issues have the potential to overtake risks associated with China’s growth slowdown and cheap oil.
“So many of these [bank stocks] are falling so sharply. I think people haven’t even caught up with what is going on, and that really concerns me,” the founder of Global Macro Investor told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday. “I look at the big long-term share charts of them, and I think this looks very terrifying indeed. I have not seen anything like this for a long time.”
For Pal, negative interest rates are the chief reason why the bank stocks are in trouble. He said European banks have a tougher time coping in the environment than U.S. banks.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/european-banks-near-terrifying-crisis-raoul-pal.html
Kyle Bass – China banks months away from ‘danger territory’Former hedge fund manager and Goldman Sachs alumnus Raoul Pal said his scenario is one most investors aren’t looking at right now.
Pal said the banking issues have the potential to overtake risks associated with China’s growth slowdown and cheap oil.
“So many of these [bank stocks] are falling so sharply. I think people haven’t even caught up with what is going on, and that really concerns me,” the founder of Global Macro Investor told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday. “I look at the big long-term share charts of them, and I think this looks very terrifying indeed. I have not seen anything like this for a long time.”
For Pal, negative interest rates are the chief reason why the bank stocks are in trouble. He said European banks have a tougher time coping in the environment than U.S. banks.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/european-banks-near-terrifying-crisis-raoul-pal.html
China’s banking system has grown to $34.5 trillion, more than three times the country’s GDP. The country is due for a loss cycle as cracks begin to show in its economy.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/kyle-bass-china-banks-months-away-from-danger-territory.html
UBS Bank Shares Plunge As Rich Investors Withdraw Money
Swiss bank UBS saw its shares slide on Tuesday on news that investors had pulled billions out of its division serving wealthy clients
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SWITZERLAND_EARNS_UBS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME%26TEMPLATE=DEFAULT%26CTIME=2016-02-02-06-56-54
Some brushed it off, saying one should never look at gross derivative exposure but merely net, to which we had one simple response: net immediately becomes gross when just one counter party in the collateral chains fails – case in point, the Lehman and AIG failures and the resulting scramble to bailout the entire world which cost trillions in taxpayer funds.
We then followed it up one year later with “The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank’s $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-28/elephant-room-deutsche-banks-75-trillion-derivatives-20-times-greater-german-gdp
Then, just last June, we asked the most pointed question yet: “Is Deutsche Bank The Next Lehman?” only this time it wasn’t just the bank’s gargantuan balance sheet risk shown below…
And let us not forget our domino friend :)
Douche bank in Ohio Supreme Court in re: foreclosure fraud (video arguments)
Case No. 2014-0791 Deutsche Bank National Trust Company as Trustee v. Glenn E. Holden et al.
http://www.ohiochannel.org/MediaLibrary/Media.aspx?fileId=147997
ISSUES:Oh look! Another ($3.1 billion) lawsuit against Deutsche Bank:
•In order to have standing, must a party seeking to foreclose have an interest in both the mortgage and the promissory note, or just an interest in either the note or the mortgage?
•When a promissory note is discharged in bankruptcy, does a party seeking to foreclose only need to show it has an interest in the mortgage to have standing, or must it have both an interest in the note and mortgage?
From Reuters at 4:33 EST today:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-lawsuit-idUSKCN0VC2NY
Per Saumya Vaishampayan at the WSJ blog today at 3:30 EST:
“Puts protecting against a 33% fall in U.S.-listed Deutsche Bank shares by April were particularly popular Wednesday. Analysts at Susquehanna Financial Group characterized the trading in Deutsche Bank options as “crash put buying.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/03/investors-buy-crash-protection…
Deutsche Bank The Next Lehman (X 5)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/deutsche-bank-next-lehman
Deutsche Bank’s troubles unmask bigger risks
http://www.afr.com/markets/deutsche-banks-troubles-unmask-bigger-risks-2…
The last time I looked, the US Banks were not any better. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/five-banks-account-96-250-trillion-outstanding-derivative-exposure-morgan-stanley-sitting-fx-de. In fact, the derivitive exposure for the top 25 banks in the US topped 300 trillion from my understanding.
Look out below. The banks are the Elephants in the Room
They got the exposures. The Primary Exposures. Then the derivatives. Then the derivatives on the derivatives. And the counter-party risk on counter-party risks and NO NOTHING OFFSETS/NETS because each contract is a one off. (Well, for all intents and purposes)
There are the beys. The best on the bets. The leveraged bets on the bets. The leveraged leveraged bets on the bets that are leveraged with all sorts of untold counter-party risks inside each of the bets.
Good Luck and Good Night
BTW. A bud of mine. Semi-retired senior guy at a major WS firm. He’s exposed. Big time. To the firm and his own portfolio. He’s scared to death and perhaps near paralysis. And this is a guy who knows what the fucks going on. Greed, hubris, denial and so on. The bad stuff happens slowly at first, nobody believes it. It accelerates… it’s transitory. Pretty soon, serious damage is done. Then it appears too late accompanied by hope… empty hope …. And after a while nights become sleepless. People become irritable and irrational.
Get safe The best portfolio is the safest portfolio. The safest portfolio is a boring portfolio. Take the day off. Go golfing or see a movie. Watch the world closely. Walk through a mall… look at how the traffic is and how many are carrying packages. Breathe in the air. Meditate. Let it go. You’re safe and will be whole. You’re being taken care of.
TF
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