Friday, May 23, 2014

There’s An Increasing Likelihood A Recession Has Begun

Economic growth slowed in April, Chicago Fed national activity index shows
Economic growth moderated in April, according to the Chicago Fed national activity index released Thursday. The index fell to negative 0.32 in April from positive 0.34 in March. However, the three-month average rose to 0.19 from 0.04 in March — the highest level since November 2013. The index is a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, designed so that a reading of zero is equivalent to trend growth…
BEST BUY: We Expect Sales Across The Consumer Electronics Industry To Tumble
“As we look forward to the second and third quarters, we are expecting to see ongoing industry-wide sales declines in many of the consumer electronics categories in which we compete,” warned CFO Sharon McCollam. “We are also expecting ongoing softness in the mobile phone category as consumers eagerly await highly-anticipated new product launches. Consequently, absent any major product launches, we are expecting comparable sales to be negative in the low-single digits in both the second and third quarters.”
Existing Home Sales Miss; Worst Start To Year Since 2007
This is the 6th month in a row of slowing year-over-year sales
Big investors like Gundlach and Fink are betting against housing
WoW! Nearly half of US unemployed have given up looking for a job
UN lowers world economic growth forecasts amid cold winter, Ukraine crisis
 
The United Nations slightly lowered its forecasts for global economic growth in 2014 and 2015 on Wednesday citing a variety of reasons including the exceptionally cold winter in the United States, the escalating political crisis in Ukraine, and financial turbulence earlier this year.
 
The new forecasts predict economic growth of 2.8 per cent in 2014 and 3.2 per cent in 2015, down from UN forecasts in December of 3 per cent growth this year and 3.3 per cent growth next year.
 
Pingfan Hong, the head of the UN’s Global Economic Monitoring Unit, told a news conference launching the report that “more than five years after the financial crisis, the world economy has not recovered back to running at full capacity.”
Soros Dumps All His Shares Of Citigroup, Bank of America & JP Morgan
Just months ago, Soros made headlines by making a billion dollar stock bet against the S&P 500.  At the time this was said to be a sign of trouble ahead for the US economy, as Soros has seemed to have had advance knowledge of market crashes in the past.  As a result of this reputation, investors have begun to keep a close eye on his holdings.
This week investors took notice again when Soros sold his shares of three major American banks, including Bank of America, JP Morgan and Citigroup.
Read more at 
You need a $137,129 salary to own a house in S.F.
Middle class will struggle to buy a home this year
S&P 500 peaked in 2000 & 2007, when Margin debt did this…
 
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Margin debt reaching all-time highs can be viewed as a sign of excessive confidence in the markets, yet knowing this hasn’t been really that helpful when it comes to portfolio construction.
What has happened in the past that has been helpful when it comes to margin debt is this…when Margin Debt was hitting all-time highs and turned lower (which in did back in 2000 & 2007), the S&P 500 was near a peak in prices.
Doug Short updates us in the chart above, reflecting that Margin debt now for the second month in a row has decreased from the highest levels in all of history at (1). Does this mean that “the top” is in for the S&P 500? Not in my opinion. Does it send a word of caution towards very large portfolio exposure to the stock market? The Patterns would suggest it does.
Everyone’s Q1 GDP Estimates Turn Negative
 
Sign Of Imminent Collapse! Soros Dumps Bank Shares




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