Friday, August 2, 2013

Fed Will Start Taper in Sept, 7 Weeks Away. Foreigners Are Quietly Getting Out Of Dodge. They Are Not Sticking Around To See What Happens

Consensus is Fed starts taper in Sept, 7 Weeks Away.
https://twitter.com/MrTopStep
https://twitter.com/search?q=neil%20irwin&src=typd
Chart Of The Day: Foreigners Are Quietly Getting Out Of Dodge
…..With an ever declining, and recently the smallest on file, notional amount of Treasurys at auction going to foreigners since 2009 (and certainly much further back), they are not sticking around to see what happens…….
Oops:

And as a bonus, what we pointed out first in January - the collapsing Bid To Cover across the curve - is just getting more and more obvious.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-31/chart-day-foreigners-are-quietly-getting-out-dodge
Mortgage Applications Plunging At Fastest Rate In 4 Years; Refis Down 57%

With a number of banks cutting their mortgage departments (Wells Fargo JV and Everbank most recently), it seems the ‘weakness’ in the housing recovery may be more than transitory. For the 11th week of the last 12, mortgage applications fell for the fastest three-month collapse since June 2009. Mortgage activity is now its lowest in two years with refinancing activity down 57% from its recent peak and new purchases have dropped to their lows of the year (down 13% from the highs) and stand exactly at three-year average levels.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-31/mortgage-applications-plunging-fastest-rate-4-years-refis-down-57
2Q growth numbers indicate a US recession is on the way
Overall, today’s low-but-actually-lower GDP growth numbers pull the US economy down to stall speed. Given the ongoing drag from Q2 inventory build, fiscal austerity, weaker global growth, and higher, taper-talk-driven interest rates, we could well see negative second-half growth.

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