Those who have been following our exclusive series of the Fed's direct bailout of European banks (here, here, here and here),
and, indirectly of Europe, will not be surprised at all to learn that
in the week ended February 27, or the week in which Europe went into a
however brief tailspin following the shocking defeat of Bersani in the
Italian elections, and an even more shocking victory by Berlusconi and
Grillo, leading to a political vacuum and a hung parliament, the Fed
injected a record $99 billion of excess reserves into foreign banks. As the most recent H.8 statement makes
very clear, soared from $836 billion to a near-record $936 billion, or a
$99.3 billion reserve "reallocation" in the form of cash - very, very
fungible cash - into foreign (read European) banks in one week.
Furthermore, as we first showed, virtually all the "reserves" created
by the Fed end up allocated as cash at commercial banks operating in
the US: both domestically-chartered (small and large), but more
importantly, foreign. And of the $1.884 trillion in very
fungible cash parked in various domestic and international US banks,
just half of it, or $949 billion is actually allocated to US banks. The
other half, or $936 billion, is parked within, again, very fungible cash
accounts of foreign (read European) banks operating in the US. This is
shown in the chart below (green area is cash of foreign banks), and what
is also shown is the total change in the Fed's excess reserves, which
proves, once more, that the Fed continues to fund European banks with
hundreds of billions in cash on a week by week basis. And what is
perhaps most important, is that of the $250 billion in new reserves
created under QEternity, all of it has gone to foreign (read European)
banks.
It may anger American to learn that by the time the Fed is done with
QEternity (if ever), all of the newly created cash will have gone to
mostly European banks. Because with every passing week, whatever new
reserves are created by the Fed in exchange for monetizing the US
deficit, end up as cash solely at European banks: a sad reality we have
seen non-stop since the advent of QE2 when US bank cash balances
remained relatively flat in the ~$800 billion range, and every
incremental dollar went straight to Europe.
As a reminder, we don't know how, via assorted shadow banking and
other repo pathways, these banks manage to use said cash in other
fungible activities. Recall that as we said, "So whether European banks
will continue buying the EURUSD, or redirect their Fed-cash into
purchasing the ES outright, or invest in other even riskier assets,
remains unknown." It is also unknown is the Fed's reserves, reappearing
as cash, and then siphoned over to European bank HoldCo via payables, is
then used by, say, Italian and Spanish banks to purchase BTPs and
Bonos, and give the impression that all is well. Because unlike before,
keeping the EURUSD high is not as critical any more. But what is
critical is to give the impression that Italian and Spanish sovereign
risk is contained. And after all, let's not forget that as of January,
Italian bank holdings of Italy state bonds just hit a record of EUR200 billion.
Is it possible that the Fed, in all its generosity, transferred over
several hundred billion over to these same Italian banks, courtesy of
the cover provided by QE, so that the same Italian banks may monetize
Italian bank bonds? And the same for Spain. Any wonder then that we got
news of how flyingly great Spanish and Italian bond auction were in the
past week?
After all, in Europe Germany has a heart attack whenever anyone
perceives the ECB as monetizing, or even greenlighting the monetization
of local sovereign bonds. But Germany has never said what it thinks
about the Fed, indirectly, doing the same, using Italian and Spanish
banks as conduits.
Finally, while we don't know what the cash is being used for, we know
that sooner or later, sometime around December 2013, when European,
pardon, foreign bank holdings of US reserves, i.e., USD cash, hits well
over $1.5 trillion, and when the Interest on Excess Reserves starts
going up and the Fed is directly providing tens of billions in interest
payment to European banks, some Americans may be angry to quite angry
with that development.
But for now, everyone is blissfully unaware and even if they were,
nobody cares. Why just look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average: how can
one possibly allege that all is not well with the world...
Source: H.8
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