The European Union is the largest economy in the world combining the
collective buying and selling power of multiple countries. If you’re
biggest customer is having troubles, it is expected that the world would
be concerned. Not so with the stock market.
The EU is currently sitting at a high in respect to their unemployment
rate and nations continue to be weighed down by enormous levels of
debt. This is what is crushing Spain, Italy, and Greece. Yet there
seems to be some underlying euphoria in all of it. Similar to our US
market, the stock markets simply do not reflect the underlying
fundamentals in these regions. This is why at the same time the Dow
reached a peak, we reached a peak in food stamp usage.
The EU is still facing deep economic issues but the markets do not seem
to care. Probably because only a small portion of the population is
even participating in the markets.
Unemployment
One of the more dramatic issues in Europe is that of youth
unemployment. In both Spain and Greece the young are facing a very
challenging market. I’ve seen articles talking about how Greece is
recovering so I had to take a look at how the employment market is
doing:
Almost 60 percent of Greek youth are unemployed. How is this even
remotely construed as a recovery? Spain is over 50 percent. And the EU
is struggling overall reaching a peak in their unemployment rate:
The EU has reached a peak level in unemployment so their
underemployment is likely much higher just like it is in the US. The US
has shifted more to a low wage capitalist economy.
Japan looks healthy above but you need to remember that about one-third
of all workers in Japan are on a contract basis. That is, they are
temporary workers with very little job security. The US if we look at
the part-time for economic reasons labor force has increased
dramatically throughout this recession.
The rising stock markets in the US are also not trickling down to consumer sentiment that has reached a 15-month low:
Why are Americans not out on the streets celebrating the peak in the Dow? Could it be that the top 1 percent controls the vast majority of financial wealth
and 1 out of 3 Americans don’t even have a penny to their name let
alone are investing in the stock market? If the Dow were a better
indicator of the true health of the economy, wouldn’t you expect to see
consumer sentiment moving up as well? Of course. But household income
has moved back to where it was in the mid-1990s and inflation
contrary to what is being published in the press, is very much real.
Since 2000 everything has gone up in price including housing,
healthcare, and college tuition.
It is odd because the CPI looks at owner’s equivalent of rent as
their main source for housing prices but this has been a poor indicator
throughout the housing bubble and during the bust. Yet this is the
biggest component of the CPI. The EU peak in unemployment also does not
reflect the large levels of debt taken on by countries like Italy,
Spain, or Portugal that have major issues for years to come.
The fact that the EU is currently facing a record unemployment level
would give pause to massive euphoria. But the US consumer sentiment
figures tell you that the only euphoria is really with the media and the
misguided idea of thinking the Dow is telling the true story of the US
economy.
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