Barack Obama's defeat does not equal Republicans victory

Although Barack Obama was badly wounded in Massachusetts, Scott Brown's victory does not mean Republicans have seized his crown, argues Toby Harnden

Senator-elect Scott Brown arrives on Capitol Hill, Washington

Witnessing the Capitol Hill arrival of Scott Brown on Fox News was like watching live television coverage of George Washington taking possession of New York City at the end of the Revolutionary War in 1783.

Every step of the all-conquering hero was breathlessly noted, as if this was an epoch-making event unfolding before our eyes.

The Associated Press noted that Brown was "still basking in the blow of his stunning upset in the Massachusetts special election". It was unclear whether the Freudian slip was a reference to the Senator-elect's well-coiffed thatch or the adoration being lavished by Republicans.

In the heady atmosphere of his victory, Brown was even being asked if a White House run was on the cards. Never mind that he is favour of abortion rights, which would immediately count him out for the Republican nomination.

During his rambling victory speech, Brown - who once posed nude (with a strategically-placed hand) for Cosmopolitan - pronounced that his daughters, 21 and 19, were "available". Although he had run a clever "outsider" campaign, it was clear that he is not quite ready for the big time.

There is no doubt that the loss of Senator Edward Kennedy's seat in the liberal bastion of Massachusetts, held by Democrats since 1952, was a grievous wound not just to Barack Obama's health care reform plan but also to his young presidency.

But just as Brown's stunning victory in Massachusetts does not mean he is destined for the Oval Office any time soon, Republicans would do well to examine what the vote signifies for them.

The result was a rejection of Obama's health care plan and, more broadly, underlined that his broader agenda is to Left-wing for what remains a centre-right country. It also reflected a broad anger about the economic mess America is in and real contempt for Washington politicians of all shades.

Polls show, however, that Obama remains personally popular. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey found that the President had a 52 per cent favourability rating, compared to 38 per cent for the Democrats and just 30 per cent for the Republicans.

As the bright young congressman Adam Putnam, a Florida Republican, pointed out to Politico last week, while voters have spurned the Democratic party, "They haven't yet fallen back in love with us."

It was only in 2006 that Republicans were swept from power on Capitol Hill amid a countrywide wave of "throw the bums out" sentiment, fuelled by financial and sexual scandals.

Now, more of the bums are Democratic and the dismay about politicians has been made more acute by the economic collapse of 2008 and the resultant double-digit unemployment.

While the majority bums are liable to bear the brunt of the kicking in the November mid-terms, in this kind of climate incumbents of both parties are under threat. Republicans need a hefty 40 seats to seize the House of Representatives. Clawing back the Senate will require a gain of 10 seats - a mountain to climb.

The Tea Party movement, disparate, decentralised anti-tax, small government activists held together by a white-hot anger against Obama and all his works, is a potent force but one the Republican party has yet to - and perhaps cannot - harness.

There is, moreover, currently no national figure showing the potential for unifying Republicans. Sarah Palin is wildly popular among the Tea Party crowd but she alienates moderates and her hesitant, muddled appearances on Fox News show that she has not mastered policy or added depth to her populist sound bites.

Apart from Palin, all the potential 2012 challengers to Obama are white males who may have problems capturing enough moderate voters to overcome the inbuilt advantage that an incumbent president enjoys.

Only a quarter of Hispanics - 15 per cent of the population and the fastest-growing minority group - hold a favourable view of Republicans.

Thus far, the Tea Party movement has shown no signs of embracing the Republican party and has derided Establishment figures like Newt Gingrich, who harbours 2012 aspirations, and Michael Steele, the gaffe-prone party chairman.

Many conservative Republicans favour ideological "purity" tests for candidates on issues like taxation, spending, abortion, unions and the environment. While these would energise the party base, they could narrow Republican appeal.

Republicans undoubtedly have a major opportunity but gloating over Obama's fall from grace will not serve them well. Obama retains a large well of goodwill in the country and the Democratic charge that their opponents are wreckers and rejectionists will stick unless a coherent Republican agenda emerges.

The crown may have slipped from Obama's head but it is not yet within the grasp of Republicans.