SAN FRANCISCO -- After Arnold Schwarzenegger replaced a Democrat in 2003 to become California's governor, fellow Republicans were hopeful the former movie hero's popularity would help arrest a long decline here.
But six years later, Republican voter registration continues to fall, and now many in the party are pegging their hopes on two former corporate chief executives: Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina.
Ms. Whitman, former president and CEO of San Jose-based online-auction company eBay Inc., in February threw her hat into the ring for the 2010 race to succeed Mr. Schwarzenegger when his second and final term as governor ends in January 2011.
Ms. Fiorina, former chairman and CEO of Hewlett-Packard Co., this month registered a campaign committee called "Carly for California" for a potential 2010 challenge against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.
The star power of both CEOs is likely to give them some momentum. An August Daily Kos poll gave the 53-year-old Ms. Whitman 24% support among California Republicans ahead of the June 8 primary, topping support for her two main challengers, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell.
A July poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Ms. Boxer with a slim lead of 45% among likely voters to 41% for the 54-year-old Ms. Fiorina in a hypothetical match-up. Ms. Boxer cited that slim lead in a fund-raising letter she sent to potential donors July 29. "We've got our work cut out for us," Ms. Boxer said in the letter.
If one or both Republican women are elected, party officials say, the victory could help rescue the California GOP from a steady slide since its heyday in the 1980s, when Republican Gov. George Deukmejian served two terms and a former governor, Ronald Reagan, was in the White House.
California's Republican-party registration fell to 31.4% of voters in 2008 from 38.6% in 1988, amid a rise in independent voters, according to the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank in San Francisco. Democratic registration also has fallen, but to 44.4% from 50.4% over the same period, according to the institute.
"The California Republican Party is smaller, less influential than it used to be," says Ray McNally, a GOP consultant in Sacramento. "But it has the potential to regain its past glory, and it all comes down to which candidates we field for office."
Political observers say the business-leader credentials of both Ms. Whitman and Ms. Fiorina could be a big draw at a time when California is facing a monumental economic crisis.
The state had to issue IOUs this summer before lawmakers agreed to a deal to close a $24 billion budget shortfall, and has been running in the red almost chronically for the past two years. With California's unemployment rate running at 11.9% as of July -- among the highest in the country -- economic issues are likely to take front and center in the state next year.
"The bottom line for the voters is the economy and jobs," says Allan Zaremberg, president of the California Chamber of Commerce, which endorsed Mr. Schwarzenegger for both his gubernatorial terms. "Our goal is to make that the No. 1 issue for the candidates just as it is for the voters."
The emphasis on economic issues could help offset both women's weaknesses in another area: Both are considered moderate on social issues, in a state party that has long been dominated by conservatives. Both are pro-choice on abortion.
Democrats, meanwhile, insist both are still too conservative for California. "At the end of the day, they're still garden-variety Republicans that are to the right of where Californians are on fiscal issues, the environment, and choice," says Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist in Sacramento.
One obstacle the party faces in California, as elsewhere, is that demographic trends, such as increased immigration, tend to favor Democrats. In the governor's race, political strategists say, a woman's presence on the general-election ballot could signal an inclusive image for Republicans. So far, state Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom are leading polls among Democratic candidates for governor.
"Republicans face a few different demographic challenges nationally, and running one or two high-profile female candidates in California helps address at least some of that problem," says Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California and former head of communications for Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign.
Some Democratic strategists dismiss the gender advantage, saying both women were also members of a class reviled by many Americans: CEOs. And they say Ms. Fiorina brings considerable baggage: She was pushed out as H-P's chief in 2005, following her tumultuous rein at the Palo Alto computer giant that began in 1999. Ms. Fiorina also was sidelined as a surrogate for last year's GOP campaign after saying neither Mr. McCain nor former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin could run a major corporation.
A spokeswoman for Ms. Fiorina said the former H-P chief gets criticism, as well as praise, because she is decisive. "She is strong, she is outspoken, and it comes from who she is," said the spokeswoman, Beth Miller, who added that Ms. Fiorina has received hundreds of emails from supporters around the country urging her to take on Ms. Boxer.
A spokeswoman for Ms. Whitman said she is focused on issues that Californians care most about now, including jobs and the economy. "She is a candidate who can provide the strong leadership Californians are looking for on these issues," said the spokeswoman, Sarah Pompei.
Some Republican officials privately say Ms. Fiorina would likely defeat her only announced rival for the primary, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, despite his popularity among conservatives. The reason, they say, is that Ms. Fiorina, with her greater name recognition, would likely be in a position to raise far more money to take on Ms. Boxer.
Mr. DeVore issued a statement after Ms. Fiorina announced her exploratory run dismissing her as unclear on issues and "an inviting target" for the Democratic senator.
"Whoever our candidates are," says Mike Villines, former Republican leader in the Democrat-dominated state Assembly, "the key for Republicans in the state is definitely focused on winning."
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