The arrogant outcry of many anti-euro people about a
“great betrayal” concerning to the agreement signed by Tsipras
government is irritating and risible.
They just take as valid the narration of pro-euro mass media which in
their turn repeat and amplify the German version, that is intended to
prove that the Greek government signed the terms of unilateral
surrender. But it is not just that! It’s evident that they are so much
blind with their conceit to point the finger at the victims and not at
the torturers. The moral of the story is that, in their opinion,
Euro-Germany scored a massive victory and, furthermore, the Greek matter
would be closed, deleted.
Probably things are not like that.
It is a fact that the SYRIZA government, in return for some money
that was urgently needed, undertook to effectuate most of the oppressive
clauses of the old Memorandum enjoined by troika. But this is not all.
SYRIZA also initiated emergency measures to help the lower classes which
are the most touched by austerity policies.
Last but not least is the formal recovery of the national sovereignty
which is, at least on paper, the end of the foreign protectorate
regime.
Only those who know nothing about politics can underestimate the
importance of these actions, considering that the only weapon that
SYRIZA can use is the preservation of the broadest support of Greek
citizens. The results of a recent survey, which was released by the most
reliable opinion poll agencies, claim that the Tsipras government
popularity has grown over 80%.
First question: what will happen in the following months if Greece is
not able to honour the subscribed clauses? Such details are crucial.
The agreement is, in fact, only theoretical for the moment. It will have
to be put into practice and this progression involves several dangers.
Using a sport metaphor we could state that the first leg was surely won
by Germany. The rematch will take place in June or perhaps before, and
its outcome is pretty hard to be forecast.
There’s a second question: what will happen in June if Greece
discovers it didn’t win the complete trust of the markets and finds
itself on the verge of default again, although it did its “homework”
carefully? At that point the therapy imposed by the eurocratic synedrion
would emerge as a flop once again and we would be back at square one.
Can we really imagine that Tsipras, at that point, would go back to the
German government asking with deference for a rollover, maybe with
heavier terms, of the European “assistance”?
Or, instead, things could go in a very different way. The Greek government, after gaining time, could produce a “plan B”.
I don’t think that the SYRIZA leaders, although they support
Europeanism (we have to remember that the old SYNASPISMOS, the actual
executive core of SYRIZA , in 1992 voted the Maastricht Treaty) can
exclude to take the possibility of a breaking-off with of the Eurozone
into account.
In defiance of all forced talks about “victory” it is evident both to
Tsipras and to Varoufakys that they were politically defeated at the
negotiations.
They hoped they could break up the Euro-German bloc but on the
contrary they were cornered and found themselves isolated. They aimed at
“changing Europe “ but their plan were proved to be ambitious and even
impossible. Only a fool could think that from now to August the
relationships inside European Union can change. They will not change. If
those “staunch Europeanist” have ears, let them hear.
Here is the third question: what sort of “B plan” do Tsipras and Varoufakys have?
I can venture a conjecture: in the face of the clear impossibility of
getting out of debt and remaining in the Eurozone they will propose to
Germany and to the European synedrion the possibility of a separation by
mutual consent: a withdrawal from EU that is as painless as possible
for the Greek people and not destructive for the Union.
Fourth question: will Germany accept a separation by mutual consent?
Probably it will but only if Greece undertakes to pay back the main part
of its debt. In nuce: separation but no default charged to the
creditors.
During the rematch they will have to focus on this. The outcome will
depend on the success or failure of the German war of attrition against
the Tsipras government. This war was started by Germany in order to
weaken and topple the Tsipras government and bring back its puppets
regime. If SYRIZA is able to maintain its broad consensus among the
Greeks (this is its main weapon, the second is a possible geopolitical
shift towards Eastern Europe) the rematch results will not be facile.
I am certain that SYRIZA, after a forced setback (of course this was
also due to its ignorance and cowardice) will not accept a second
setback, which would be fatal. It would become itself an executioner in
charge of crucifying Greek people. Tsipras cannot do anything else but
refusing this macabre role so he will either pack his bags and call the
election (at the risk of social and political chaos and really
catastrophic results) or he will be bound to handle the default and the
unilateral withdrawal from the Eurozone.
Postscriptum
Contrariwise to those who are getting ready to betray and leave the
Greek people to their fate, crying about a “great betrayal of SYRIZA” we
must keep a close eye on the Greek events which are really full of
lessons to be learned for all of us and, just like in the past, we have
to express our full solidarity to the Greek people, in spite of the many
limitations of the Tsipras government.
