Greece: what now?

By Moreno Pasquinelli

The arrogant outcry of many anti-euro people about a “great betrayal” concerning to the agreement signed by Tsipras government is irritating and risible.

They just take as valid the narration of pro-euro mass media which in their turn repeat and amplify the German version, that is intended to prove that the Greek government signed the terms of unilateral surrender. But it is not just that! It’s evident that they are so much blind with their conceit to point the finger at the victims and not at the torturers. The moral of the story is that, in their opinion, Euro-Germany scored a massive victory and, furthermore, the Greek matter would be closed, deleted.
Probably things are not like that.
It is a fact that the SYRIZA government, in return for some money that was urgently needed, undertook to effectuate most of the oppressive clauses of the old Memorandum enjoined by troika. But this is not all. SYRIZA also initiated emergency measures to help the lower classes which are the most touched by austerity policies.
Last but not least is the formal recovery of the national sovereignty which is, at least on paper, the end of the foreign protectorate regime.
Only those who know nothing about politics can underestimate the importance of these actions, considering that the only weapon that SYRIZA can use is the preservation of the broadest support of Greek citizens. The results of a recent survey, which was released by the most reliable opinion poll agencies, claim that the Tsipras government popularity has grown over 80%.
First question: what will happen in the following months if Greece is not able to honour the subscribed clauses? Such details are crucial. The agreement is, in fact, only theoretical for the moment. It will have to be put into practice and this progression involves several dangers. Using a sport metaphor we could state that the first leg was surely won by Germany. The rematch will take place in June or perhaps before, and its outcome is pretty hard to be forecast.
There’s a second question: what will happen in June if Greece discovers it didn’t win the complete trust of the markets and finds itself on the verge of default again, although it did its “homework” carefully? At that point the therapy imposed by the eurocratic synedrion would emerge as a flop once again and we would be back at square one. Can we really imagine that Tsipras, at that point, would go back to the German government asking with deference for a rollover, maybe with heavier terms, of the European “assistance”?
Or, instead, things could go in a very different way. The Greek government, after gaining time, could produce a “plan B”.
I don’t think that the SYRIZA leaders, although they support Europeanism (we have to remember that the old SYNASPISMOS, the actual executive core of SYRIZA , in 1992 voted the Maastricht Treaty) can exclude to take the possibility of a breaking-off with of the Eurozone into account.
In defiance of all forced talks about “victory” it is evident both to Tsipras and to Varoufakys that they were politically defeated at the negotiations.
They hoped they could break up the Euro-German bloc but on the contrary they were cornered and found themselves isolated. They aimed at “changing Europe “ but their plan were proved to be ambitious and even impossible. Only a fool could think that from now to August the relationships inside European Union can change. They will not change. If those “staunch Europeanist” have ears, let them hear.
Here is the third question: what sort of “B plan” do Tsipras and Varoufakys have?
I can venture a conjecture: in the face of the clear impossibility of getting out of debt and remaining in the Eurozone they will propose to Germany and to the European synedrion the possibility of a separation by mutual consent: a withdrawal from EU that is as painless as possible for the Greek people and not destructive for the Union.
Fourth question: will Germany accept a separation by mutual consent? Probably it will but only if Greece undertakes to pay back the main part of its debt. In nuce: separation but no default charged to the creditors.
During the rematch they will have to focus on this. The outcome will depend on the success or failure of the German war of attrition against the Tsipras government. This war was started by Germany in order to weaken and topple the Tsipras government and bring back its puppets regime. If SYRIZA is able to maintain its broad consensus among the Greeks (this is its main weapon, the second is a possible geopolitical shift towards Eastern Europe) the rematch results will not be facile.
I am certain that SYRIZA, after a forced setback (of course this was also due to its ignorance and cowardice) will not accept a second setback, which would be fatal. It would become itself an executioner in charge of crucifying Greek people. Tsipras cannot do anything else but refusing this macabre role so he will either pack his bags and call the election (at the risk of social and political chaos and really catastrophic results) or he will be bound to handle the default and the unilateral withdrawal from the Eurozone.
Postscriptum
Contrariwise to those who are getting ready to betray and leave the Greek people to their fate, crying about a “great betrayal of SYRIZA” we must keep a close eye on the Greek events which are really full of lessons to be learned for all of us and, just like in the past, we have to express our full solidarity to the Greek people, in spite of the many limitations of the Tsipras government.