The Treasury 'grossly exaggerated' the economic and financial impact of Brexit, says academic review - and Cameron and Osborne are 'treating us like children'

• Most economic models found Brexit would make little difference to UK economy, according to Cass Business School
• But the Government has ignored waves of research in 'biased' report
• London City University professor brands Treasury a 'propoganda machine'
• Economics professor says Cameron and Osborne have used 'highly prejudiced' Treasury reports to 'ramp up the scaremongering' over Brexit
• Says it's 'no different from the way kids are frightened into doing what their parents want'  
• But Remain says Cass report is 'riddled with false claims' and includes 'no new analysis'  

By Matt Dathan, Political Correspondent For Mailonline

The Treasury 'grossly exaggerated' the impact of leaving the EU on Britain's finances, according to an academic review published today. 

Most economic modelling has found that a Brexit vote in the June 23 referendum would make little difference to Britain's economy, the study by the influential Cass Business School concluded. 

It said the Government had ignored waves of research in favour of publishing 'highly prejudiced' reports warning the UK would be poorer by £4,300 per household by 2030 and be hit by an immediate recession. 

And in a damning verdict on George Osborne's approach to the referendum campaign, author Dr David Blake, a professor of Pension Economics at Cass Business School at City University London, accused the Treasury of becoming a 'propoganda machine' for the EU. 

But a Remain spokesman dismissed the Cass report as 'riddled with false claims' that includes 'no new analysis' and said the Treasury report included a wide review of economic studies of Brexit. 

+1

David Cameron and George Osborne (right) delivered a blood-curdling Treasury analysis last month warning of economic chaos if voters back Brexit 

Professor Blake's report on the 'extraordinary abuse of economic models' found the system used by the Treasury would generate predictions that the UK would be better off signing up to the euro and every country in the world would benefit from joining the EU.

David Cameron and Mr Osborne 'have used the reports to ramp up the scaremongering', he claimed.

'There is doom-mongering on every page of the two reports,' Professor Blake said. 'It's no different from the way children are frightened into doing what their parents want. We are all being treated like children.'

TWO POLLS GIVE 6-POINT LEAD TO BREXIT AS POUND PLUNGES AGAIN 

Two new polls tonight indicated Brexit was six points ahead in the referendum race with just 10 days to go.

The surveys - both by ICM with one done by phone and the other online - showed an increase in the lead for leave from four points to six.

Both polls by the firm, carried out between June 10 and today, showed Leave on 53 per cent to Remain on 47 per cent. The new data follows a poll last week with a 10-point Brexit lead.

The results have contributed to continued market turmoil as the main FTSE-100 stock index closed down on the day.

The pound tumbled again this morning and continued to have another rollercoaster day, slipping again as the new polls were released.

Against the backdrop of another day dominated by debate over immigration, the new polls will increase the sense of panic within David Cameron's Remain campaign that the referendum could be slipping away.

Voters with postal ballots are already returning their papers and most voters will go to the polls in just 10 days time, on June 23. 

Polling expert John Curtice told the Guardian, who commissioned today's ICM surveys: 'These results are consistent with the generality of numbers over the last couple of weeks, in which there has been some weakening in the remain position.

'It was already plain that this race was far closer than the prime minister intended, and he must now be feeling discomfort at the thought that the outcome really could be in doubt.'

He added: 'The British Treasury has in effect become a propaganda machine for a political institution led by [European Commission president] Jean-Claude Juncker - a man who has declared his hostility to 'democratic choice' when it comes to the wishes of the European people. 

'This whole exercise is utterly dangerous for democracy.'

The Treasury's research assumes the UK would be unable to negotiate more favourable trading arrangements than it has now with either the EU or the rest of the world, according to the academic.

Using economic models that focused on international rather than European trade 'it might well have found that the UK would be better off leaving the EU', he said.

Change inevitably means some people will gain while others lose out, but by 'focusing only on economic issues, the Treasury's two reports present a highly prejudiced case for remaining in the EU', Professor Blake said.

'Most of the other economic models that have examined the economic consequences of Brexit - and which have been entirely ignored by the Treasury - find that it will make little difference to the UK's economy whether the UK stays in or leaves the EU,' he added.

'This is consistent both with Greenland's experience of leaving the EU in 1985 and with Ireland's experience of ending currency union with the UK in 1979 - neither of which is considered in the Treasury reports.' 

The Treasury has published two major reports on the impact of leaving the EU on Britain's economy and public finances. 

Presenting the second of the reports last month, which warned of 800,000 job losses and rising mortgage costs, Mr Cameron described voting for Brexit as the 'self-destruct option' that would shrink the economy by 1 per cent in a single quarter. 

In the first of the Treasury reports, it predicted each household could be £4,300 worse off every year by 2030, forecasting that the economy will fall by more than 6 per cent by the end of next decade.  

ICM released two more polls today, carried out over the past three days, both of which showed a six point leader for the Brexit campaign 

Responding to the Cass report, a Remain campaign spokesman said: 'The Cass report is riddled with false claims and includes no new analysis. It claims that most other models predict very little impact from Brexit. This is completely untrue.

'The Treasury paper includes a wide review of other studies and there is an overwhelming consensus amongst economists, as polls have shown, that Brexit would be damaging. 

'All serious independent organisations, including the IMF and OECD, have warned of the negative economic effects of Brexit.

'Those who have done their own work in this area--including the London School of Economics--have found that if anything the Treasury may have understated the impact of leaving the EU.

Finally, the Cass report claims that Britain could strike better trade deals outside the EU. The expert body here is the World Trade Organisation: both the current and former director generals have warned that new arrangements would take years to negotiate, trade outside the EU would be very difficult and no substitute for access to the single market.

'It is this report, not the Treasury's, that is totally out of step with the facts and economic consensus on Brexit.' 

The highly critical verdict on the Treasury's Brexit warnings came as two new polls tonight indicated Brexit was six points ahead with just 10 days to go until the June 23 referendum.

The surveys - both by ICM with one done by phone and the other online - showed an increase in the lead for leave from four points to six.

Both polls by the firm, carried out between June 10 and today, showed Leave on 53 per cent to Remain on 47 per cent. The new data follows a poll last week with a 10-point Brexit lead.

The results have contributed to continued market turmoil as the main FTSE-100 stock index closed down on the day.

The pound tumbled again this morning and continued to have another rollercoaster day, slipping again as the new polls were released.

Against the backdrop of another day dominated by debate over immigration, the new polls will increase the sense of panic within David Cameron's Remain campaign that the referendum could be slipping away.