Netflix (NFLX) is one I am tracking as a bell weather for “loss of faith in the dream.”
It’s got a p/e of 246 (ugh!) and is a full double this year alone.
Yes, NFLX is down since August, but it’s got a very loooong way to
fall if it ever decides to get around to getting back to a fair value
p/e or 10 or 15.
On the other side of the hope ledger, we find that Twitter has been a real destroyer of capital and dreams.
That’s a roughly 50% loser from the peak…and probably will go a lot
further. Of course it doesn’t even have a p/e to report because it’s
lacking a full year of positive ‘e’ to put in the equation.
But it does have a market capitalization of $19 billion. As soon as
TWTR earns $10 million over the course of an entire year, finally, then
it will sport a p/e of 1,900. But if it could earn $100M, then the p/e
would shrink to “just” 190. To justify this company in a long-term
portfolio you’d want to see a p/e in the vicinity of 15-20…and that
would require earnings of ~$1 – $1.2 billion.
This is why tech company investors hate earnings. As soon as you get
them you can value a company. Best to not have them so you can
continue to evaluate the company on “growth” and “eyeballs” and “market
share.”
Chris
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