While Greece is collectively scratching its head why Tsipras et al were
at loggerheads with Europe for 4 months, during which time the Greek
economy entered a recession and saw its banks not only depleted of all
cash but become de facto wards of the ECB, just to reach an "agreement"
that could have taken place back in February, and attention shifts to
just how Tsipras will pass last night's impromptu capitulation through
hard-line leftist parliamentarians, Greece now has another problem: how
to unpivot the aggressive pivot toward Russia in the past few months, which culminated with the signing of an energy deal last week in St. Petersburg.
It goes without saying that if Greece is scrambling to go back into
the Troika's good graces, Belgium will make it very clear that any
overtures to Putin are to be "cease and deceased" (sic) immediately.
Which opens a can of worms for the Marxists in government: how to slam
shut the door to their ideological Plan B, when everyone knows the
Grexit fiasco will repeat again in a few months, and Greece will again
be knocking on the Kremlin's door.
For now, however, the situation is as follows, courtesy of Kathimerini: a
rift appeared to have emerged Monday between Energy Minister Panayiotis
Lafazanis (photo) and Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias as regards the
country’s energy policy, with the latter declaring that the
government is fully in line with European policy in spite of a recent
Russian gas deal that has ruffled feathers in Brussels.
The memorandum signed by Lafazanis and Russian officials in Saint
Petersburg earlier this week foresees that third parties could be
permitted to reserve the full capacity of the pipeline, something that runs counter to EU competition laws.
In comments Monday, Kotzias remarked that Greek energy
agreements cannot include terms and conditions that “go beyond the legal
framework and agreements of the [European] Union.”
A memorandum of understanding co-signed by Lafazanis last Friday
foresees the continuation of the Turkish Stream pipeline which has yet
to be built but, according to plans by Gazprom, would carry natural gas
from the Black Sea to Western Europe.
According to the initial agreement signed by Lafazanis and his
Russian counterpart Alexander Novak, Russia’s VEB development bank will
own 50 percent of the 2-billion-euro route and provide all financing,
while Greece will own the rest.
Incidentally, as Russian Vzlgiad reported today,
an Italian Saipem pipeline driller has just commenced operations as
part of digging the Turkish Stream which will cross Greece, now that the
Bulgarian passage of the Southern Stream has been put on permanent
hiatus.
Clearly, as part of all future (if not the current) Greek bailouts, Europe
will prohibit any Russian pipelines crossing Greece and entering Europe
in expectations that the Syrian operation will finally succeed and the
Qatar gas pipeline will supplant Gazprom as Europe's primary provider of
offshore energy.
So as Tsirpras scrambles to explain to his fellow countrymen why he
did what he did, very soon he will have a much more difficult
explanation: either telling Putin that Greece can no longer permit the
Turkish Stream (and with it lose billions in direct energy investment
with no Troika repayment strings attached), or tell the Troika that
Greece is actually more independent than assumed by Belgium, which in
turn would force even tougher bailout terms on the Athens government and
the usual threats of cutting of Greek bank liquidity overnight if
Greece deviates from Europe's anti-Russia course.
In both cases more drama is assured.
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