Anti-minimum wage conservatives are in full gloat over a recent report in a Seattle magazine that lots of Seattle restaurants have closed lately or are due to close in the next weeks or months.
The conservatives gleefully associate this phenomenon with the coming increase in the city's minimum wage, which kicks in April 1 with a rise to $11 an hour from
$9.32. (Employers whose workers earn tips get a break--they can pay $10
if the workers make up at least another dollar from their tips.) The
wage hike builds over time; for employers with fewer than 500 workers,
which would probably cover every full-service Seattle restaurant, the
ultimate increase to $16.49--or $15 for tip earners--doesn't happen
until 2021.
David Watkins of the Lawyers, Guns & Money blog points
out that the minimum wage opponents are declaring "We told you so" way
too soon. In fact, the article that inspired the gloating doesn't
ascribe any of the closings to the minimum wage increase and, indeed,
points to different reasons in every case. As for the idea that Seattle
restaurants are "closing in record number" (sic), as the Tea Party News Network proclaims, it's just not so.
Here's
the rundown. Of the seven restaurants specifically mentioned in Seattle
Magazine's March 4 post, one was reported by its owner to be located in
the wrong neighborhood for its particular mix of bar space and
atmosphere. Another is being offloaded by an owner who has three other
restaurants in the city and is opening two more. (A neighboring
restaurant is expanding into its space.) A third turned out to be too
big for the clientele at its location. Three aren't closing at all, but
are getting new chefs because their old boss is moving to Spain to join his partner.
How many owners cited the minimum wage as a factor in their actions? None.
There
are some mild intimations in the article that Seattle restaurateurs are
thinking about how to accommodate the wage increase. These come mostly
from an industry lobbyist, although local reporters have been collecting
expressions of concern from restaurant owners about how the wage increase will thin their profit margins.
The
Seattle Magazine piece observes, on the other hand, that the market
in new restaurant openings is very active. And Watkins points out that
Seattle remains one of the most vibrant and
competitive restaurant cities in the country; Jed Kolko of Trulia
calculates that it boasts the third highest concentration of
eateries in the country, at 24.9 per 10,000 households, behind only San
Francisco (by a huge margin) and the New York metropolitan area.
That
doesn't mean that the minimum wage increase won't make the Seattle
restaurant business harder. But so far it doesn't seem to have made a
dent in diners' choices.
Keep up to date with the Economy Hub. Follow @hiltzikm on Twitter, see our Facebook page, or email mhiltzik@latimes.com.
Copyright © 2015, Los Angeles Times
No comments:
Post a Comment