The term default has varying definitions depending on whether you are
an individual, a big bank, or the government. For you as an individual,
default will occur when you are unable to pay your debts with the
income you are generating. You are constrained by your income. As we saw
with the housing crisis, when you are unable to pay your mortgage a
bank will foreclose on your home. Unable to pay your auto debt? Repossession is the likely next step. Not making those college loan payments?
Garnishment of wages is a typical course of action. Yet for the
government, they have the ability to print their way out of problems
courtesy of our fiat money system. The end result is inflation in the
real economy which ultimately impacts families. Banks of course have the
ability to restructure debt and circumvent accounting rules to their
own convenience. If we applied the same rules of default that
individuals follow to the government, we would already be in a soft
default. This does not happen but what ultimately occurs is inflation in
items that are financed via debt (i.e., housing, student loans, cars,
etc).
Government spending versus tax revenues
Government is merely a collection of people reflecting the goals and
wants of the overall population. We elect representatives to serve our
interests once in office. If they choose to deviate from the path, we
ideally would punish them at their re-election campaign. The issue we
have currently is that power is bought in politics. Power comes from
money and most Americans are flat broke.
The government is running major deficits each and every year. This is
how big money in finance is able to have generous corporate welfare
while the public endures the bitter pill of forced austerity.
Take a look at income versus expenses here:
The government had $3.87 trillion in expenses in the last reportable
quarter with $3.29 trillion in tax receipts. In other words, the U.S.
government spent $580 billion more than it brought in. Of course this
gets pushed into the corporate government credit card and our expense on
the debt keeps rising. Even with record low interest rates courtesy of
central banks racing to the bottom, we still spend a large amount on
interest payments. Payments on principal that will never be paid back. Let me repeat, we will never ever pay back the principal we owe.
Debt to the penny and interest expenses (why interest rates have to stay low while inflation will occur)
As of today, we currently owe $17.93 trillion:
Source: U.S. Treasury
This debt comes at a cost just like borrowing on a credit card. The
only difference is the government gets fantastic rates. Take a look at
what it costs to service our debt:
We currently spend $415 billion per year just to pay the interest on
this debt. You’ll notice that in previous years we paid more but that is
because the blended interest rate was higher. Today, we are at record
low rates but this has come at the expense of the Fed ballooning their
balance sheet to uncharted territory:
The Fed’s balance sheet is now up to over $4.4 trillion. There is
talks of tapering and unwinding but the chart above says otherwise. We
are forced into a corner with low interest rates now. Even if rates
slightly went up to historical standards we would be spending nearly $1
trillion a year simply on paying interest on the debt. We are
essentially in a soft default and that is why inflation is raging in items financed by debt, the elixir of choice of central banks.
It would be nice to spend more than you earn into infinity but of
course as we all know, there is no free lunch, including for
governments.
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