Friday, May 16, 2014

Recovery Summer 2014!! Initial Claims Surge By Almost 40k In 2 Weeks, Planned Layoffs Jump 17% In April.

The last 2 weeks have seen initial claims surge by almost 40k back (the most in 5 months) above 2013′s closing levels. This post-weather-recovery “ignore Q1 GDP” pent-up demand is absolutely not evident in the jobs data as the 344k print for initial claims is the highest since Feb. This is also confirmed by the 5.7% rise year-over-year in Challenger job cuts which has left the year-to-date job cuts at their worst for an April since the recession ended… But didn’t everyone tell us that April was looking good and that Q1 GDP was in the past and we should for get about it?
Initial Claims… ugly
JOBLESS CLAIMS UNEXPECTEDLY SPIKE
Planned layoffs jump 17% in April: Challenger, Gray
The number of American companies planning job cuts jumped in April from the previous month.
U.S. employers planned to cut payrolls by 41,835 in the month, up 17 percent from March’s planned layoffs, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX BEATS EXPECTATIONS
Construction Spending Misses Expectations
American teens don’t want to work
Decline in summer jobs can’t all be blamed on the economy
Ford And Chrysler Sales Disappoint
Here’s our running tally:
  • Chrysler: +14% (+15.7% Estimated)
  • GM: +6.9% (+5.7%)
  • Ford: -0.8% (+3.1%)
  • Nissan: +18.3% (+13.6%)
BIGGEST GAIN IN PERSONAL SPENDING SINCE AUGUST 2009
US Savings Rate Plummets To Second Lowest Since 2008 To Pay For March Spending Spree
Wall Street: 98% Risk of Crash This Year
Earlier this year, a select group of Wall Street Insiders were surveyed, and the results were ominous. These financial experts and fund managers predicted a 98% chance a stock market crash will happen in the next six months.
Gary Shilling, one of Wall Street’s top economists, says the S&P Index could drop as low as 800, a 42% decline.
Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the world’s biggest bond fund managers and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, says the real damage is yet to come and an “ominous third phase” will “far exceed the damage of 2008.”
And Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, author of “The Real Crash: American’s Coming Bankruptcy,” warns, “I am 100% confident the crisis that we’re going to have will be much worse than the one we had in 2008.”

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