U.S. Economy Shrinks for First Time Since 2011 — Is it really just temporary..?
U.S. economy shrinks…
Less is more for the U.S. economy, which suffered its first contraction since 2011 last quarter.
Gross
domestic product fell at a 1 percent annualized rate, worse than the
most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, revised
Commerce Department figures showed today inWashington.
The good news: Much of the decline was due to less inventory building
that economists say can’t last. As a result, some are boosting
second-quarter growth forecasts, with Morgan Stanley projecting a 4.2
percent gain.
GDP ‘grim’…
The
U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in
three years as it buckled under the weight of a severe winter, but there
are signs activity has since rebounded.
The
Commerce Department on Thursday revised down its growth estimate to show
gross domestic product shrinking at a 1.0 annual rate.
Excluding Obamacare, US Economy Contracted By 2% In The First Quarter
Pending Home Sales Miss Expectation
Pending home sales climbed 0.4% month-over-month in April. This missed expectations for a 1% rise.
On the year, pending home sales were down 9.4% worse than expectations for an 8.7% fall.
March’s number was revised down to show a 7.5% YoY fall, compared to an initial read of a 7.4% fall.
“Pent-Up” Pending Home Sales Demand Missing; Down 9.4% YoY
7th month in a row of YoY declines…
Goldman Boosts Q2 GDP Forecast Due To Weaker Than Expected Q1 GDP
Consumer Comfort Plunges To 6-Month Lows
Despite
record highs in stock markets and talking-heads explaining that a
terrible Q1 GDP print is nothing to worry about, Bloomberg’s Consumer
Comfort index collapsed to its lowest level in 6 months as ‘Buying
Climate’ collapsed and economic expectations plunged from 48 to 42.5 (7-month lows). Those earning over $100k are happy and comfort soared but the comfort of those earning under $40k plunged to new cycle lows. The Fed won’t be happy… need S&P 2,200 for animal spirits to come back again…
Summer crash of 2011 in 2014?
My reasoning then was simple.
The magnitude of outperformance in dividend/bond-like sectors was
warning of a deflation pulse to come, which equities utterly ignored
prior to the August collapse. More so than that, though, the ratio of
Treasurys to the S&P 500 didnot act with the same level of leadership as defensive sectors did.
Japanese Retail Sales Collapse By Most On Record
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