It may be time for the GOP to adopt a new midterm campaign strategy.
While the Obama administration botched the rollout of healthcare.gov,
just a few months later, the Affordable Care Act is undoubtedly
rebounding. Indeed, the president announced last
week that 8 million people have signed up for health insurance through
the federal exchanges – surpassing the administration’s 7 million
goal. Still, Republicans aren’t loosening their grip on what they see as
one of their most winning midterm issues. Republican National Committee (RNC) Communications Director Sean Spicer said over the weekend that Obamacare “is still the number one, number two and number three issue going into this election.”
RNC spokesman Raffi Williams added, “President Obama may be content
to take a victory lap, but Americans are still left with more questions
than answer when it comes to the true impact of ObamaCare. How many of
the 8 million have actually paid their premiums? How many Americans will
be hit with skyrocketing premiums next year? And what relief does
President Obama have for the millions of Americans who have lost their
doctors, their existing health plans, and their economic opportunities
due to ObamaCare? With so many questions waiting to be answered, it’s no
wonder the President’s signature law remains so unpopular.” The RNC also released a web video Friday
after Obama’s announcement of the new numbers, in which the
commander-in-chief said it was time for Republicans to “move on” from
his health care legislation and on to more pressing matters. The GOP’s
spot titled “Not Time To Move On” contrasts Obama’s desire to put the
program’s troubles in the rearview mirror to reports of Americans who
lost their coverage or saw their premiums jump under the legislation.
Disrupt With Karen Finney, 4/19/14, 4:44 PM ET
GOP vs. Dems on ACA: will the fighting stop?
Similarly, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas – who spearheaded a move
last year to defund Obamacare and in the process drove a government
shutdown – tweeted Friday, “The repeal debate is far from over.
#FullRepeal.” House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy said in a statement
that “Republicans cannot and will not accept this law.” And House
Majority Leader Eric Cantor indicated he was skeptical about the
numbers, releasing a statement Friday saying, “If the president is so
confident in his numbers, there is no reason not to release transparent
and complete enrollment data.”
It’s not hard to see why the GOP doesn’t want to let go of Obamacare.
For years, Republicans have trounced Democrats in the messaging wars
over the health care law, and as a result, polls have continually shown
that Americans are skeptical about the program. But surveys also
indicate that more Americans would rather keep the legislation than
throw it out completely. According to
a new Kaiser study, six in 10 Americans said Congress should either
improve Obamacare or keep it the way it is. Less than three in 10 wanted
to repeal the law or replace it with a GOP-endorsed plan.
So, is going full steam ahead against Obamacare – as the GOP did in
the 2012 and 2010 election cycles – still a smart strategy? The
GOP-controlled House has unsuccessfully tried to repeal or change the
health care law more than 50 times. Now that Obamacare is here and
millions have signed up, is threatening to take that insurance away a
good move?
Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who’s also editor and publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, told CNN on
Sunday that it’s difficult to see how the GOP can run an entire
campaign against Obamacare. “I think the cake has been baked [on
Obamacare],” he said. “I don’t think there are a bunch of people
changing their opinions now … they’ve got to talk about growth and
jobs.”
There are signs Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky – who’s
up for re-election in a competitive race – is softening his tone on the
issue in a state where sign-ups for Obamacare have surpassed the 400,000
mark. Yes, McConnell has repeatedly called for repealing the law, but
during a talk with health care workers in his state last week, McConnell
acknowledged that
a repeal was unlikely under Obama and instead focused on improving the
law. “We’re going to figure out a way to get this fixed,” he
said, according to The Madison Courier.
Of course, the 2014 strategy depends on where you live. Purple-state
Democrats in tight races, like Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, put
forth legislation to make Obamacare “work better.” And in blue
Oregon—which has had a shaky Obamacare rollout – Republicans are seeing
an opening, hoping to take advantage with pediatric neurosurgeon
candidate Monica Wehby to unseat Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkeley. Wehby
has made her opposition to Obamacare a cornerstone to her campaign.
But it’s difficult to argue for repealing and replacing Obamacare without an alternative road map.
According to a poll
from Reuters/Ipsos released last week, 32% of respondents said they
trust Democrats more on health care plans, policy, or approach compared
to 18% for Republicans. From February, that’s an increase for the Dems
and a dip for the GOP.
Ipsos pollster Chris Jackson said “Democrats
have not managed to have a huge lead over Republicans so much as
Republicans have managed to damage their own position and stay behind
Democrats. That’s because people don’t view the Republican Party as
standing for any particular health care system.”
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