I hereby make a prediction: Bitcoins will go down in history as the
most spectacular private Ponzi scheme in history. It will dwarf anything
dreamed of by Bernard Madoff. (It will never rival Social Security,
however.)
To explain my position, I must do two things. First, I will describe the
economics of every Ponzi scheme. Second, I will explain the Austrian
school of economics’ theory of the origin of money. My analysis is
strictly economic. As far as I know, it is a legal scheme — and should
be.
PONZI ECONOMICS
First, someone who no one has ever heard of before announces that he
has discovered a way to make money. In the case of Bitcoins, the claim
claim is literal. The creator literally made what he says is money, or
will be money. He made this money out of digits. He made it out of
nothing. Think “Federal Reserve wanna-be.”
Second, the individual claims that a particular market provides
unexploited arbitrage opportunities. Something is selling too low. If
you buy into the program now, the person running the scheme will be able
to sell it high on your behalf. So, you will take advantage of the
arbitrage opportunity.
Today, with high-speed trading, arbitrage opportunities last only for
a few milliseconds seconds in widely traded markets. Arbitrage
opportunities in the commodity futures market last for very short
periods. But in the most leveraged and sophisticated of all the futures
markets, namely, the currency futures markets, arbitrage opportunities
last for so brief a period of time that only high-speed computer
programs can take advantage of them.
The individual who sells the Ponzi scheme makes money by siphoning
off a large share of the money coming in. In other words, he does not
make the investment. But Bitcoins are unique. The money was siphoned off from the beginning.
Somebody owned a good percentage of the original digits. Then, by
telling his story, this individual created demand for all of the digits.
The dollar-value of his share of the Bitcoins appreciates with the
other digits.
This strategy was described a generation ago by George Goodman, who
wrote under the pseudonym of Adam Smith. You can find it in his book, Supermoney.
This is done with financial corporations when individuals create a new
business, retain a large share of the shares, and then sell the stock to
the public. In this sense, Bitcoins is not a Ponzi scheme. It is simply
a supermoney scheme.
The Ponzi aspect of it comes when we look at the justification for
Bitcoins. They were sold on the basis that Bitcoins will be an
alternative currency. In other words, this will be the money of the
future.
The coins will never be the money of the future. This is my main argument.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/bitcoins-the-second-biggest-ponzi-scheme-in-history/
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