Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Economic Update: Durable Goods -7.3%, Exp. -4.0%! Durable goods ex transports -0.6%, Exp. +0.5%! Downward Q3 GDP revisions imminent!

Durable Goods Crater On Plunge In Airplane, Manufacturing And Computer Orders: Biggest Miss Since August 2012
And so that the great CapEx spending surge is delayed once more: supposedly to H3 2013 this time. Moments ago the Commerce Department reported the latest Durable Goods numbers which were a total disaster: the headline print plunged by 7.3% on expectations of a -4.0% decline driven by a drop in Airplane orders (to be expected following last month’s noted bumper Paris Air show spike as Boeing reported only 90 new plane orders compared to 273 in June). Well, airplanes orders did indeed slide by 52.3%, but it was weakness in Transportation (-19.4%) and Computer (-19.9%) orders as well as Manufacturing (-9.8%) that took the market by surprise. This was the biggest miss to expectations since August 2012.
Excluding transportation, the drop was “only” -0.6%, however with the expectation of a +0.5% increase, and the prior month revised from unchanged to -0.1%, one can see that the expected revenue pick up for the remainder of 2013 in the S&P500 will be merely the latest myth to never take place.
The chart below showing the Year over Year change in headline Durable Goods says it all.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-26/durable-goods-crater-plunge-airplane-manufacturing-and-computer-orders-biggest-miss-
US durable goods plunge in July, cast shadow over Q3
Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods recorded their biggest drop in nearly a year in July and a gauge of planned business spending on capital goods tumbled, casting a shadow over the economy early in the third quarter.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100987214
September Swoons & Octoberphobia
http://mrtopstep.com/2013/08/september-swoons-octoberphobia/
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 1 min
Horrible Durable goods wasn’t horrible enough to send S&P soaring?
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 1 min
BATS GLOBAL MARKETS, DIRECT EDGE AGREE TO MERGE. Market crashes in celebration
Recession’s pain reaching deep into the economic recovery
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-08-21/business/41431709_1_sentier-research-4-percent-households

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