Today’s AM fix was USD 1,260.75, EUR 967.95 and GBP 829.93 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,243.50, EUR 952.80 and GBP 816.27 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,203.25, EUR 921.89 and GBP 789.33 per ounce.
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” – Yogi Berra
Gold climbed $20.50 or 1.66% yesterday and closed at $1,252.70/oz. Silver hit $20.09/oz in Asian trading fell back in London and rebounded higher in NY, but finished with a loss of 0.1% at $19.60/oz.
Gold ETF outflows continue and are at a four year low, with SPDR Gold Trust saying its holdings dropped to 968 tonnes, a figure not seen since 2009. However physical demand remains robust as seen in China, in the U.S. Mint figures and the increasing demand for international bullion storage, outside the banking system.
Investors will keenly wait for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls figure on Friday. A good jobs number will see gold come under pressure again while a poor number could lead to further buying.
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“The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets” – Rothschild
Physical demand remains robust globally and especially in China where Reuters report “stock loading in the market and physical buying in Shanghai.”
There is also the interesting trend of many western banks, some who are making loud bearish noises in public, quietly moving to offer their high net worth client’s storage in Zurich, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Smart money is still accumulating physical gold and the banks know this and realise that in order to retain clients and income they must offer bullion services and storage outside the still fragile banking system.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
The U.S. Mint sold 14,500 ounces of gold coins on the first day in July, according to figures on the Mint’s website. At that pace, total sales for the month would be 333,500 ounces, up 993.4% from a year earlier according to Bloomberg.
================================================================
Total Ounces YOY% MOM%
================================================================
July 2013
Month-to-Date 14,500
Full month pace 333,500 993.4% 485.1%
—————————————————————-
June 2013 57,000 -5.0% -18.6%
May 2013 70,000 32.1% -66.6%
April 2013 209,500 947.5% 237.9%
—————————————————————-
March 2013 62,000 -0.8% -23.0%
Feb. 2013 80,500 283.3% -46.3%
================================================================
Total Ounces YOY% MOM%
================================================================
Jan. 2013 150,000 18.1% 97.4%
Dec. 2012 76,000 16.0% -44.3%
Nov. 2012 136,500 232.9% 131.4%
Oct. 2012 59,000 18.0% -13.9%
Sept. 2012 68,500 -24.7% 75.6%
Aug. 2012 39,000 -65.2% 27.9%
July 2012 30,500 -52.7% -49.2%
June 2012 60,000 -2.4% 13.2%
—————————————————————-
May 2012 53,000 -50.5% 165.0%
April 2012 20,000 -81.5% -68.0%
March 2012 62,500 -15.0% 197.6%
Feb. 2012 21,000 -77.3% -83.5%
Jan. 2012 127,000 -4.9% 93.9%
Dec. 2011 65,500 9.2% 59.8%
Nov. 2011 41,000 -63.4% -18.0%
Oct. 2011 50,000 -46.8% -45.1%
================================================================
Source: Bloomberg
Gold is “extremely oversold” on a variety of indicators including long-term momentum indicators.
Gold appears to be close to a bottom and there is major support between $1,000/oz and $1,200/oz. Further weakness is possible and buyers should wait for a higher weekly close before dollar, pound and euro cost averaging their physical accumulation.
Ignore the considerable noise, alarmist articles and headlines and always focus on the fundamentals, on the importance of diversification and most importantly always have a long term perspective.
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