The list of options — laid out in a letter from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, to the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Carl Levin
of Michigan — was the first time the military has explicitly described
what it sees as the formidable challenge of intervening in the war.
It came as the White House, which has limited its military involvement
to supplying the rebels with small arms and other weaponry, has begun
implicitly acknowledging that Mr. Assad may not be forced out of power
anytime soon.
The options, which range from training opposition troops to conducting
airstrikes and enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria, are not new. But
General Dempsey provided details about the logistics and the costs of
each. He noted that long-range strikes on the Syrian government’s
military targets would require “hundreds of aircraft, ships, submarines
and other enablers,” and cost “in the billions.”
General Dempsey, the nation’s highest-ranking military officer, provided
the unclassified, three-page letter at the request of Mr. Levin, a
Democrat, after testifying last week that he believed it was likely that
Mr. Assad would be in power a year from now.
On that day, the White House began publicly hedging its bets about Mr.
Assad. After saying for nearly two years that Mr. Assad’s days were
numbered, the press secretary, Jay Carney, said, “While there are shifts
in momentum on the battlefield, Bashar al-Assad, in our view, will
never rule all of Syria again.”
Those last four words represent a subtle but significant shift in the
White House’s wording: an implicit acknowledgment that after recent
gains by the government’s forces against an increasingly chaotic
opposition, Mr. Assad now seems likely to cling to power for the
foreseeable future, if only over a rump portion of a divided Syria.
That prospect has angered advocates of intervention, including Senator
John McCain, Republican of Arizona, who had a testy exchange with
General Dempsey when the general testified before the Armed Services
Committee about why the administration was not doing more to help the
rebels. The plan to supply the rebels with small arms and other weaponry
is being run as a covert operation by the Central Intelligence Agency,
and General Dempsey made no mention of it in his letter.
On Monday, Representative Mike Rogers, a Michigan Republican who heads
the House Intelligence Committee, said that despite “very strong
concerns about the strength of the administration’s plans in Syria and
its chances for success,” the panel had reached a consensus to move
ahead with the White House’s strategy, without specifically mentioning
the covert arms program. Senate Intelligence Committee officials said
last week that they had reached a similar position.
A Syrian opposition leader said in an e-mail Monday night that with the
Congressional reservations largely addressed, American arms would most
likely begin flowing to the rebels within a few weeks. “We think August
is the date,” the official said.
In an interview, Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations special envoy to
Syria, expressed disappointment at the Congressional approval. “Arms do
not make peace,” he said. “We would like to see the delivery of arms
stopped to all sides.”
If ordered by the president, General Dempsey wrote, the military is
ready to carry out options that include efforts to train, advise and
assist the opposition; conduct limited missile strikes; set up a no-fly
zone; establish buffer zones, most likely across the borders with Turkey
or Jordan; and take control of Mr. Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile.
“All of these options would likely further the narrow military objective
of helping the opposition and placing more pressure on the regime,”
General Dempsey wrote. But he added: “Once we take action, we should be
prepared for what comes next. Deeper involvement is hard to avoid.”
A decision to use force “is no less than an act of war,” General Dempsey
wrote, warning that “we could inadvertently empower extremists or
unleash the very chemical weapons we seek to control.”
Mr. Obama has shown no appetite for broad military engagement in Syria,
and, if anything, General Dempsey’s letter underscores the president’s
reluctance. Some analysts said they believed the administration’s more
circumspect public language about Mr. Assad was meant to lay the
groundwork for the long-term reality of a divided Syria.
“It’s not a shift, but it’s recognition that the administration’s policy
goals will not be achieved during this presidency,” said Andrew J.
Tabler, a senior fellow and a Syria expert at the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy. “We’re in this for a long slog.”
White House officials said Mr. Carney was not signaling a policy shift
or a change in its messaging. But the cumulative effect of comments from
civilian and military leaders is unmistakable. “If nothing changes, if
we don’t change our game, will he be in power a year from now?” Senator
Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, asked General Dempsey last
week, referring to Mr. Assad.
“I think, likely so,” the general said.
In his letter, General Dempsey assessed the risks and benefits of
different military options. But his tone was cautionary, suggesting that
the Pentagon views all of these options with trepidation.
Training, advising and assisting opposition troops, he wrote, could
require anywhere from several hundred to several thousand troops, and
cost about $500 million a year. An offensive of limited long-range
strikes against Syrian military targets would require hundreds of
aircraft and warships and could cost billions of dollars over time.
Imposing a no-fly zone would require shooting down government warplanes
and destroying airfields and hangars. It would also require hundreds of
aircraft. The cost could reach $1 billion a month.
An order to establish buffer zones to protect parts of Turkey or Jordan
to provide safe havens for Syrian rebels and a base for delivering
humanitarian assistance would require imposing a limited no-fly zone and
deploying thousands of American ground forces.
In describing a mission to prevent the use or proliferation of chemical
weapons, General Dempsey said the effort would require a no-fly zone as
well as a significant campaign of air and missile strikes.
“Thousands of Special Operations forces and other ground forces would be
needed to assault and secure critical sites,” he wrote, with costs well
over $1 billion a month.
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